Ethiopia prepared to invade Somalia

[D Rusak]

Add two more countries onto the WWIII agenda....

Ethiopia prepared to invade Somalia

By LES NEUHAUS, Associated Press Writer2 hours, 33 minutes ago

Ethiopia is prepared to invade neighboring Somalia to defend its U.N.-backed government against what appeared to be an imminent attack by Islamic militiamen, a government spokesman said Wednesday.

The militiamen, who hold most of southern Somalia, deployed hundreds of fighters outside the town where the largely powerless government is based and said they planned to seize it.

"We have the responsibility to defend the border and the Somali government. We will crush them," Ethiopia's Minister of Information, Berhan Hailu, told The Associated Press.

Seizing the town of Baidoa would give the Islamic militia - which the United States has linked to al-Qaida - the uncontested authority over most of Somalia.

Somali transitional President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed is allied with Ethiopia, and has asked for its support. Ethiopia has intervened militarily in Somalia in the past, and hundreds of Ethiopian troops have been spotted along the countries' border in recent weeks.

The Somali Islamist militants are allied with Muslim separatists in the Oromo region of Ethiopia.


from http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060719/ap_on_re_af/somalia_ethiopia

 

[PopHistorian]

It's five months later now and this war is starting, if reports from the Ogaden region on the border are true. Shelling is going on now. There has been sporadic violence for the last few months. So, maybe it's worth it for us to learn a bit more about this.

(http:/)/www.ogaden.com/ethnws09Dec06.htm

They Are Shelling Each Other Heavily
By Sahal Abdulle, December 15, 2006

Mogadishu - Somali Islamists and pro-government soldiers shelled each other in a second day of fighting on Saturday, witnesses said, a major escalation of violence many fear will erupt into all-out war.

The fighting occurred in Maddoy village about 40km from the interim government's headquarters in Baidoa, the only town it controls in its own country. The two sides fought in the area on Friday, killing at least two bystanders.

"The war restarted about 30 minutes ago," Maddoy resident Ahmed Mohamed Adan told Reuters by telephone. "They are shelling each other heavily."

He said government forces and Ethiopian troops, pushed back by fighters from the Somali Islamic Courts Council (SICC) on Friday, returned to the area early on Saturday with 20 "technicals" N pickup trucks mounted with heavy weapons.

The Islamists rule much of southern Somalia under sharia, Islamic law, and want to take over the anarchic nation.

Another resident, Adan Mohamed Nur, told Reuters by telephone that he could hear the fighting going on: "But I do not know who is pushing who."

I began researching the Ethiopia/Somalia situation last week when I saw a TV news report about the US military training Ethiopian troops in "border defense" (interesting that the US military skill set apparently includes border defense). It said many feel an impending war between Ethiopia and Somalia over a "border dispute." And of course, the US backs Ethiopia because Somalia, as I just heard this morning on American TV is "seething with anti-American and Jihadist rhetoric." That's the bias Americans get. But it's not just a political border dispute -- it's ethnic and religious.

History of conflict in the Ogaden
The Ogaden is a region of southern Ethiopia that is ethnically Somali and Muslim, so much so that it is sometimes called Ethiopian or Abyssinian Somaliland. The borders mess was originally created chiefly by Europeans (remember British Somaliland, Italian Somaliland, French Somaliland), but Ethiopia (one of the oldest independent countries, even though they keep getting invaded) managed to annex and hold it. There are ongoing secessionist activities by the Somali Ogaden

The two countries fought the Ogaden War in 1977-78 when one of these power shifts occurred. It was the cold war and the US and USSR had their puppets everywhere. US supported Ethiopia. USSR supported Somalia. Then the USSR decided to switch to supporting Ethiopia, which caused the US to switch to supporting Somalia! Crazy. In the confusion (at one point the Soviets found themselves supplying both sides, and tried to mediate a ceasefire), the Somalis, with a military built up with Soviet equipment, invaded the Ogaden, sparking the war. With the USSR switching to Ethiopia's side, Castro sent Cuban troops to fight alongside Ethiopians. The war stopped when the Ethiopians' US-supplied F4 Phantom aircraft gained air superiority over Somalia's Russian-made Migs -- the Somali army retreated back to Somalia. A Somali-soldiers-led insurgency continued until defeated in 1981.

Somalia remained on the US side of the cold war (US got to set up military bases there) until 1988, when there was another, brief, armed conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Ogaden region.

Currently, Ethiopia has troops that have crossed into Somali territory. Somali Muslims are declaring Jihad on Ethiopia. Somalia is suffering internal conflict between its shaky, barely extant government and something called the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which is gaining power (political and military) in the country.

OgadenOnline.com today shows:
- Ethiopia plotting to attack!
(http:/)/www.ogaden.com/Potting03Nov06.htm
- Ethiopia must quit Somalia before any talks-Islamist
(http:/)/www.ogaden.com/somnws14Dec06.htm

Other sources:
- Somalia: Border Residents Accuse Ethiopian Troops of Harassment
(http:/)/allafrica.com/stories/200612150182.html
- Somalia: Militias Defected From the Government Unite With Islamists
(http:/)/allafrica.com/stories/200612150183.html
- Troops Dig In as Somalia War Fears Grow
(http:/)/www.ogaden.com/smnws13Dec06.htm

 

[PopHistorian]

More about the UIC in Somalia, now making the western news. The rise of the Union of Islamic Courts appears to present all the more reason why the US will support Ethiopia in the heating conflict with Somalia. After all, the UIC's power may eclipse that of the Somali gov't soon. The UIC claims that the first armed conflict with Ethiopian troops was last Friday, December 8.

- Somalia: AU Chairman Says Peacekeeping Troops Should Be Deployed
(http:/)/allafrica.com/stories/200612140638.html

At an African states summit in the Kenyan capital Nairobi Thursday, the chairperson of AU Commission Alpha Omar Konare has incited heads of African governments to dare sending peacekeeping troops to Somalia to find military balance between the government and Union of Islamic Courts.

He stressed that Islamic Courts are more powerful than the transitional government, demanding that African states should send troops to back up the fragile government.

He pointed out that the government could not have balanced peaceful dialog with the Islamic Courts if African countries did not support it militarily.

- BBC report: Somali group denies al-Qaeda link

Somalia's powerful Islamist group has dismissed US allegations that its leadership is dominated by al-Qaeda.

US Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi Frazer said radical forces had sidelined more moderate forces in the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).

But a UIC spokesman said the US was trying to derail the stability it had brought to much of Somalia this year.

As tensions rise between the UIC and the weak interim government backed by Ethiopia, fears of a regional war grow.

Ms Frazer warned against a military solution and said the way ahead should be through talks between the two sides.

- BBC report is portraying this as an impending war between Ethiopia and the Somali UIC specifically:
Timeline: Ethiopia vs Somalia
(http:/0/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6159735.stm

For a little overview of the current conflicts in central Africa, to which this could add, please see forum post http://www.cassiopaea.org/forum/index.php?topic=4248

 

[Ruth]

Is this some kind of sick plot to get Africans to kill each other - the ones that don't get killed by famine and AIDs, that is?

How can they be so STUPID to let this happen? Its rather depressing to see how easily African countries are manipulated.

 

[anart]

Its rather depressing to see how easily African countries are manipulated.

Is it any less depressing to see how easily Australia or America are manipulated?

 

[CarpeDiem]

Its rather depressing to see how easily African countries are manipulated.

Is it any less depressing to see how easily Australia or America are manipulated?

Is it not less depressing to witness how completely Italy, Spain, France, Russia and god knows how many other counties, if not all of them are manipulated? Only Chavez'z Venesuela comes in mind, but did venesuelian media tell albeit once about impending civilization crush? I switch on satellite tv, scan channels, and fall sick - smart american sitcoms, smart and educative sadistic Tom & Jerry and likes cartoons for our kids, smart divertimiento shows and humor programs on all language non-commercial (hardly) channels, and non-stop consumer frensies or "astrology" or "taro" or whatever predictions on other channels? What "educative" RaiEdu II tells about?
The only exception would call french "kto", they some time ago aired documentary on martial law in Palestine occupied territories...
i start thinking to write an application to participate in one of those sick tv shows "do you know alphabet" type where participants are used to come in with all sorts of little presents for conductors of show (canned mushrooms, homemade jellies, dry fish, caviar, bakery, artisan products - anything participants are good at)
and to hand as a gift to conductor first an english manual, and then Laura's Secret History as unvaluable gift for humanity for those few who may be interested. And show on Tv screen sott and cass web address... I'm quite sure that those who will make it at least 1/5 of Laura's book will not be interested that much in canned vegetables any more... What else indivudual could do to raise an awareness apart of working on himself?

 

[anart]

Is it not less depressing to witness how completely Italy, Spain, France, Russia and god know how many other counties, if not all of them are manipulated?

Very true - I was attempting to point out this same idea with two countries that might hit closest to 'home' for Ruth - but your post illustrates it more fully.

;)

 

[Ruth]

Its rather depressing to see how easily African countries are manipulated.

Is it any less depressing to see how easily Australia or America are manipulated?

Probably not. But I was wondering how the PTB were going to manipulate the people Australia and America to go out and kill each other in the same way that they have manipulated the inhabitants of Africa to do this.

Maybe they don't need to, and we'll all die from some other means, and their manipulation extends only to covering up 'the how', so we don't see it.

Its still depressing to think that humans everywhere will probably follow in the African population's footsteps.

 

[Ryan]

Probably not. But I was wondering how the PTB were going to manipulate the people Australia and America to go out and kill each other in the same way that they have manipulated the inhabitants of Africa to do this.

Probably in the same way - creating situations of shortage in supply of basic neccessities. Food and water perhaps? There are plenty of religious and ethnic lines in "multicultural" Australia to fracture along, should anything like that happen.

 

[PopHistorian]

Ruth wrote: << their manipulation extends only to covering up 'the how', so we don't see it. >>

That's exactly right. I just watched the documentary film The Trials of Henry Kissinger based on journalist Christopher Hitchens's book, and, wow, to read in documents about "making sure the hand of America is well hidden" -- it's not that hard. Just because it was a group of Chileans that did the dirty work in the overthrow of Allende in 1973, the US hand was obscured. Because Chileans murdered Army Commander Rene Schneider as the first step, the US hand was hidden, even though the guns that did the deed were packaged and mailed directly from Washington to Santiago! There are unsavory people everywhere and in every class of society that will do every manner of dirty work for money to create the small, misleading catalysts that bring people into conflict.

Now I'll go write a post on the film in the Movies forum.

 

[Ruth]

There are plenty of religious and ethnic lines in "multicultural" Australia to fracture along, should anything like that happen.

From what I've seen in this country, and in the news about others, it looks like it might need either organised crime or espionage (which is often the other side of the same coin) to take hold in a society for it to 'fracture' along ethnic lines. Luckily that incidious evil is not running our country, even if niaive fools are...

Of course, where money and scarcity are involved you will often find people in conflict, but not along religious or ethnic lines (such as farmers fighting over water that travels across state borders).

A recent scarcity example - petrol. I don't recall anybody blaming religious or ethnic groups; more like politicians, oil companies and more politicians (American ones for invading Iraq and mismanaging Huricane Katrina). Nobody trusts them.

 

[PopHistorian]

Here's an interesting article (from December 8, 2001!), alleging that Ethiopia is using its US-bestowed status as "Ally in the War on Terrorism" as a means to assert its influence in the East Africa sphere, primarily by casting Somalia as a hotbed of terrorism and the region as the newest active front in Bush's phony global war, soon to become all too real, it seems. Five years on, we may be seeing the manifestation of this. Ah, the things that go on behind so many scenes.

On top of this, additional articles linked below indicate that Somalia is suffering "low food security," and now the EU is stepping in with a limp attempt to broker peace by sending memos to the conflicting parties.

ETHIOPIAN "MIRAGES" IN THE HORN OF AFRICA
(http:/)/www.ogaden.com/ethiomirages.htm

Case in point: Ethiopia as partner in the War on Terrorism.

From a distance Addis is a staunch ally, a dependable one. From a distance, Ethiopia is a front line state in the war on terrorism. From a distance, Ethiopia has implemented a crack down on terrorist financial networks. From a distance, Ethiopia started several years ago it's own war on terrorism.

But only at a distance.

Approach the pleasant vision of a genuinely eager ally and further scrutiny will reveal some interesting truths.

The war on terrorism could not have come at a better time for the beleaguered EPRDF/TPLF regime in Addis Ababa. Like a drowning swimmer tossed a life preserver, Ethiopia's Prime Minister did not hesitate to leap towards this floating ring in the hopes that it will prevent his regime from going under and being covered by the waves of history.

But this swimmer is not only concerned with staying alive. Even as he paddles his feet towards the raft he sees an opportunity.

Put simply, in one blow, EPRDF/TPLF wishes not only to survive, but to emerge the dominant force in the Horn of Africa.

Quick thinking on the part of the ruling clique in Addis hatches a simple plan in which the EPRDF/TPLF seeks to do the following

1. Portray Ethiopia as Indispensable to counter terrorism efforts in the Horn of Africa

2. Paint Ethiopia's neighbor's (Somalia most of all) as zest pools of terrorist activity.

3. Ensure resulting actions (preferably military) coincide exactly with Ethiopian strategic interest's in the region.

4. While this is going on, use additional foreign military and economic assistance, which is sure to come, to eliminate internal dissent within the EPRDF and systematically crack down on free political expression.

When we consider what is at stake for Ethiopia, it is no surprise that the Zenawi clique has fallen over themselves trying to recast the Horn of Africa as the world next battle front on terrorism (with Ethiopia being the favorite prize fighter in this match).

EU to Present Memorandum to Somali Parties
(http:/)/www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/7e7427b0ea5b516c46e9ccb8cbc49c3d.htm

The European Commissioner of Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, is to press both sides in the Somali conflict "to resume talks in order to find a peaceful solution", the European Union has announced.

U.N. reports "growing food insecurity" in Somalia
(http:/)/www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L19263230.htm

GENEVA, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The United Nations on Tuesday reported "growing food insecurity" in Somalia, where fighting and floods have cut off people from vital aid supplies.

The U.N.'s World Food Programme (WFP) said it is only reaching 278,000 of the 455,000 Somalis in need, amid fears of a war between the Western-backed interim government and Islamic rivals who have taken Mogadishu and control most of the south.

 

[PopHistorian]

Confusing mess developing here, and a humanitarian disaster looming. Now the most fighting appears to be intra-Somali, between interim gov't and UIC forces. I feel suspicious. This kind of internal division in Somalia would be just the thing to foment if you were, for example, Ethiopians getting ready to invade Somalia (or the backers of Ethiopia looking to win a battle in the "War on Terror").

SOMALIA: Continuing fighting forces hundreds more to flee homes
(http:/)/www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/276a273a479410af2129b70c29c256de.htm

NAIROBI, 21 December (IRIN) - The number of people fleeing the southern Somalia towns of Baidoa and Buur Hakaba swelled on Thursday as fighting between forces of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) entered a second day, sources told IRIN.

"Yesterday [Wednesday] we had people coming from the Daynuunay area [epicenter of the fighting]. Today, many Buur residents are leaving their homes," Mukhtar Atosh, a resident of Buur Hakaba, said.

A source in Baidoa said that "people were leaving before, but the numbers were not that big. Today [Thursday] and yesterday [Wednesday] we are seeing more people leaving, including business people."

A civil society source told IRIN that the people were "leaving fearing more fighting."

"Many of the people fleeing are agro-pastoralists, who would [normally] be tending their farms and livestock, but will now be IDPs (internally displaced persons)," Abdullahi Shirwa of the Civil Society in Action, a coalition of civil-society groups, said. "If fighting continues, I am afraid we are looking a humanitarian disaster."

The fighting began on Tuesday, a day before the arrival of the European Commissioner (EC) for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, who was in the country to mediate between the two sides.

 

[PopHistorian]

Well, I'm sure you all know that this conflict is in the headlines now and being twisted crazily. I can't believe CNN said the Ethiopian invasion was with the "tacit approval" of the US. I mean, CNN showed the US military in Ethiopia training their troops. Tacit, I'm sure. The UIC is mentioned only with the word "radical" or "radical Islamist" preceding it, and they get the fear going by hinting at keen US interest in the region and the prospects for a "wider regional war."

 

[PopHistorian]

(http:/)/news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/6268335.stm

Read the viewpoint of some Somalis, post-invasion, in their own words. Here's one:

Life is harsh here because of recent events; and it's been made worse by Ethiopian interference. Prices are rocketing, unemployment is rising and chaos prevails. We feel afraid because there is a rampant lack of security. We see more assassinations and we hear more bombings; shops especially are being targeted.

The government has stepped up its campaign to restrict our freedom of expression. I think they want to prevent the outside world knowing what has happened in Somalia. Of course there were big disagreements before [under the rule of the Union of Islamic Courts], but at least that came within the context of freedom of expression.

It is really terrifying here.

Everyone believes Ethiopia is only after its own interests in Somalia. I don't see any popular support for the new government.

With the worsening security and economic situation, khat [a mild stimulant] is once again openly on sale in the markets.

I think the Ethiopian forces should withdraw and new negotiations should be launched between the disputing parties. If not, the government and the Ethiopian forces will suffer heavily, as the resistance is growing day by day. Members of the government are afraid for their lives. They are aware that they are not popular. They should pack up and leave. It is in everyone's best interests.