Failed Trump Assassination Attempt

Judicial Watch has uploaded all recently released bodycam footage on DropBox, HERE.

I don't know at what time in the story line this happens, but at 4:37/4:38 in this video (#5 of 12) you can see a guy running on the roof of AGR#3. You don't see him for very long but he is definitely moving to the left and it looks like the same path Crooks took in the other video but, obviously, I can't be 100% certain it's Crooks. It's a long ways away. You can also just make out some other movement around 4:54. His head popping up? This cop was in the woods to the east of AGR.


View attachment 100012

Someone on X just made a stabilized and zoomed in version of that:


You can see someone, maybe Crooks, getting up on the roof with a backpack and running across. That happen ca at 18:08:30, ca 3min before the first shot.

It looks like whoever that is on the roof (likely Crooks, IMO) was filmed before the first shots were fired. And he is indeed coming from far back in the building complex, close to the red position marker above.

I found a video that has more audio on it than the previous uploaded ones, which leads me to the suspicion that (at least in this case) it wasn't the police officer himself that didn't record audio but that it was cut out afterward:


So I'm getting kinda suspicious about all the police cam videos that we have seen now, where the audio is missing here and there. It could very well be that the FBI or whoever cut out audio parts before the videos were released to the public.
 
I was just thinking that whoever planned this probably knew beforehand that there would be a lot of normal people and police around who will see and record something in many areas including Crooks area, so they might have decided from the get-go that it would be too risky to place a second real shooter somewhere because of that? Maybe they then just decided to pave the way for Crooks himself, maybe even helping him to some extent on the scene to accomplish what he did? And maybe that is the one thing they are really trying to hide now? That he was helped to be able to do what he did?
 
It seems like the mainstream is pushing the idea that Crooks did that by himself, while, at most, there was a serious “mismanagement“ or “incompetence“ taking place by the secret service that paved the way for Crooks. Maybe even going as far as suggesting, if needed, that this “mismanagement“ was done deliberately “by the secret service alone“. While in reality, what they really want to hide is that Crooks was not really planning and acting alone (maybe even on the scene itself) but that he was groomed, prepared and helped directly by the “FBI“ and/or other power structures of the PTB to be able to do that.
 
I was just thinking that whoever planned this probably knew beforehand that there would be a lot of normal people and police around who will see and record something in many areas including Crooks area, so they might have decided from the get-go that it would be too risky to place a second real shooter somewhere because of that? Maybe they then just decided to pave the way for Crooks himself, maybe even helping him to some extent on the scene to accomplish what he did? And maybe that is the one thing they are really trying to hide now? That he was helped to be able to do what he did?
Could be. In JFK's time this wouldn't have been a problem, but you're right, in today's world everyone has a smartphone that enables recording. Right now, and especially after watching Martenson's latest segment, I think that there was at least a dozen individuals in various roles (SS, LEO:s) that controlled/secured the whole AGR complex so that whoever took those shots could make them successfully. Basically, the whole of building 6 was under 'their' control and prepared for the event, OSIT.

For instance, those officers/agents at the West side of building 6 appear suspcicious (ZZ Top guy etc.) as they were among the crowd who were shouting and pointing out Crooks on the roof, and did nothing. Then, after the shots they can be seen on the East side 'checking' and talking to the other officers.
 
I haven't had time to analyse this video but it shows some interesting details. It's a shortenen semgent by an X user (with some unnecessary dramatizing music) from a longer bodycam video BWC2-122110, which can be found HERE. The X user's video below:


From ca 5min in, you can see Crook's body clearly and in detail (graphic!). Maybe you with the right kind of medica/anatomical knowledge can see something that would give more clues of how and from where he was shot? What surprised me, at least, was how far back from the ridge his body was – did they drag him backwards, if so, why? Also, one officer cuffs his hands with those plastic things, why do that if he's clearly dead? Another weird detail starts at 7:15 in the X video. One of the camouflaged officers puts something that looks like a part of a gun that he picked up from the roof into the belt of the SWAT guy who's wearing gloves. Maybe nothing, but a bit weird.

Here's a screeshot of the gun part, or whatever it is. Can someone identify what that is?

weird-gun-part.png
 
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Here is some first 3 screen shots from the video. The audio and video slightly better than previous video.
see the small text comment below
  • first shot at 02:08:66 - No flash available though camera is facing. There is some serious highspeed readjustment going on window 3 between shot 1 and 2 , if one looks at it frame by frame.
  • 2nd shot at 02:09:51 - Flash shows up in 3rd window (from left) but at 02:09:70 and reflection of it on 4th window too.
  • 3rd shot at 02:10:19 - Camera no longer facing building, so nothing captured.
I used Aegisub 3.2.2 to put the comments


Trump_bulter_3_shots_comments.jpg

There is slight time difference ( 10 to 20 msec) showing when the same video is opened in movie maker and Aegisub 3.2.2. Probably it is related software versions and like practical calibrations. any way the readjustment after first shot.

Trump_3window_2ndShot_changes.png

Some are too convinced that it can't be done from 3rd window without going through the fence. It is possible, but may not be ideal with simple flat out calculations. Any angle of the gun upwards, gravity effect on the bullet ( it is considered negligible for first 100 ft) can easily make it happen. These are the calculations professional assassins' takes care of them.

 
From ca 5min in, you can see Crook's body clearly and in detail (graphic!). Maybe you with the right kind of medica/anatomical knowledge can see something that would give more clues of how and from where he was shot? What surprised me, at least, was how far back from the ridge his body was – did they drag him backwards, if so, why?

I would say there is a low probability that Crooks was dragged back down the slope after he was shot: You would expect to see some blood further up if that was the case. I don't see that. It seems like Crooks might not have shot further up the slope because 1; from there, there was enough clearance to see Trumps head and 2; being positioned farther back made it easier to hide.

Another weird detail starts at 7:15 in the X video. One of the camouflaged officers puts something that looks like a part of a gun that he picked up from the roof into the belt of the SWAT guy who's wearing gloves. Maybe nothing, but a bit weird.

Shorty after the guy goes up the roof, you can see and hear that the handgun (which is in a holster, it seems) was dropping down from the black uniform guy (accidentally, it seems). The black uniform guy reacts shortly after that, trying to get back down to pick it up, and probably does so, but then sets the gun aside back on another spot on the roof, because he had other stuff to do: examining Crooks dead body. Meanwhile, the other officer in beige uniform saw all of that happening (handgun falling down), and later grabbed the gun and put it away on still another spot on the roof. Then, when the black uniform guy was finished with his examination of the dead body, the beige uniform guy takes up the handgun again and helps to put it back on the black uniform officer. Nothing suspicious there, IMO.
 
Here is some first 3 screen shots from the video. The audio and video slightly better than previous video.
see the small text comment below
  • first shot at 02:08:66 - No flash available though camera is facing. There is some serious highspeed readjustment going on window 3 between shot 1 and 2 , if one looks at it frame by frame.
  • 2nd shot at 02:09:51 - Flash shows up in 3rd window (from left) but at 02:09:70 and reflection of it on 4th window too.
  • 3rd shot at 02:10:19 - Camera no longer facing building, so nothing captured.
I used Aegisub 3.2.2 to put the comments


View attachment 100053

There is slight time difference ( 10 to 20 msec) showing when the same video is opened in movie maker and Aegisub 3.2.2. Probably it is related software versions and like practical calibrations. any way the readjustment after first shot.

View attachment 100054

Some are too convinced that it can't be done from 3rd window without going through the fence. It is possible, but may not be ideal with simple flat out calculations. Any angle of the gun upwards, gravity effect on the bullet ( it is considered negligible for first 100 ft) can easily make it happen. These are the calculations professional assassins' takes care of them.


Actually, when you look at the new video above from the police guy, it seems to make it rather clear that that proposed "lighted window" was pretty much closed when the first shot rang out. I think we can see that rather clearly because we can see the reflections of that glass in that window before, during, and after the first shot. We couldn't see the reflection of the glass in Daves video in those crucial moments, which added to speculations about it having been opened. Here we can clearly see reflections on the window. We could argue though that that window might have been opened just very slightly. Although I would tend to say no to that. Also, I'm still pretty convinced that you can not shoot at Trumps head from that window, while clearing the fence, unless maybe, you would position your gun extremely high up in that window. Also, notice how very different the gun shots sound in this video (AGAIN!) compared to other videos. Which further reinforces my opinion that you can't say much about how each gun shot sounds in comparison to others.
 
From the video it seems that the later count of casings identified the other 3 on the other side of the roof (downward slope). The plausible narrative is that Crooks fired the first 3 with his gun further forward (aiming carefully at Trump), and then took 2 seconds to move back and fire off the other 5, more random, shots. Still interesting, and of course, any or all of those casings could have been dropped there by the first 'responders' on the roof. Cops leaving fake evidence at crimes scenes is not exactly a new phenomenon.

Yeah, I also think the reason why the guy first counted 5 casings is because he just counted and/or saw those 5 near Crooks and not the other 3 further away on the downward slope of the other side.
 
Someone on X just made a stabilized and zoomed in version of that:


You can see someone, maybe Crooks, getting up on the roof with a backpack and running across. That happen ca at 18:08:30, ca 3min before the first shot.

You can see the guy climbing onto the hallway roof. He then walks across it, tossing something (backpack?) onto the roof of AGR#2, and climbs up onto that roof as well. He then waits for a bit crouched or laying down, as someone walks to the right in front of the building but doesn't see him. After while, the guy stands up, bag in hand, and runs on the roof of AGR#2 to the left. The yellow dotted line is the most direct route. The red dotted line is a more difficult route because getting onto the roof of AGR#3 from the left hallway is problematic being it's time consuming and comes with the risk of a fall. But he does disappear for a bit. Because of time and the flow of the action, I think the guy took the right hallway roof to get onto AGR#3.

The green dotted line is the theoretical path the guy might have taken to get on the roof in the first place.

The yellow dotted line in the woods is the cop who recorded the guy's movements.


AGR Paths.jpg

If there was a second shooter, then the purpose of Crooks (if this was him) was to appear stealthy but ultimately noticeable so all attention would be drawn to him. It would have to look like he wasn't assisted either. Apparently he scored a 1500 on his SAT, but this might be a diversion to show he was "strikingly intelligent" and could plan all this by himself.
 
I don't know at what time in the story line this happens, but at 4:37/4:38 in this video (#5 of 12) you can see a guy running on the roof of AGR#3. You don't see him for very long but he is definitely moving to the left and it looks like the same path Crooks took in the other video but, obviously, I can't be 100% certain it's Crooks. It's a long ways away. You can also just make out some other movement around 4:54. His head popping up? This cop was in the woods to the east of AGR.
That was the same time that James Copenhaver's video was taken. I'm sure some YouTuber will sync them up soon. More below.
"Recently discovered video from a local business shows the shooter pulling himself up onto the AGR building rooftop at approximately 6:06 pm, and at approximately 6:08 pm the subject was observed on the roof by local law enforcement." -Phil Abbate, FBI Deputy Director


Has this video been released? I can't find it.
Nope.
And what local business is he talking about? I'm guessing Brenckle's, maybe showing him emerge above the roofline of the front building as he climbed onto the air conditioning unit on the other side of it, as one theory goes. Or M&R Power Equipment for the shed, if the camera was maybe on the north corner. That's a long way though, and there are trees in the way. I'd need to see that video.

View attachment 100014
One of the YT guys covering this (can't remember if it's Jeff Ostroff or Gray Hughes) thinks it could be one of the businesses in the bottom left of the image, e.g. M&R Power.
I found a video that has more audio on it than the previous uploaded ones, which leads me to the suspicion that (at least in this case) it wasn't the police officer himself that didn't record audio but that it was cut out afterward:


So I'm getting kinda suspicious about all the police cam videos that we have seen now, where the audio is missing here and there. It could very well be that the FBI or whoever cut out audio parts before the videos were released to the public.
This video just syncs the dashcam audio to the bodycam footage.
You can see the guy climbing onto the hallway roof. He then walks across it, tossing something (backpack?) onto the roof of AGR#2, and climbs up onto that roof as well. He then waits for a bit crouched or laying down, as someone walks to the right in front of the building but doesn't see him. After while, the guy stands up, bag in hand, and runs on the roof of AGR#2 to the left. The yellow dotted line is the most direct route. The red dotted line is a more difficult route because getting onto the roof of AGR#3 from the left hallway is problematic being it's time consuming and comes with the risk of a fall. But he does disappear for a bit. Because of time and the flow of the action, I think the guy took the right hallway roof to get onto AGR#3.

The green dotted line is the theoretical path the guy might have taken to get on the roof in the first place.

The yellow dotted line in the woods is the cop who recorded the guy's movements.


View attachment 100060
Back when the Copenhaver video was released, Azget Industries channel uploaded her proposed 3D reconstruction. She gets some details wrong (like where he got on the roof), but overall she was right about the video depicting him crossing north to south over the full length of the middle building (not west to east):

From around 18:08:10 to 18:08:30 in the body cam video, he's visible on the roof of that third building. He's stops running and hops down to the building connector at 18:08:52. At 18:08:20 in the dashcam, a cop (the guy who came out of the woods?) says "someone's on the roof." At 18:08:33: "I have someone on the roof with white shorts." 18:08:38: (cop in the car) "See that dude running?" Copenhaver's video shows 18:08:37-18:08:50.

 
Technical post. TLDR: Time difference analysis, combined with information on bullet velocities, gives a possible range of 120 to 161 meters for the distance of the shooter(s) from Trump. Additionally, depending on whatever distance in that range is used for the first shot, all other shots must have come either from the same distance, or from a second rifle no more than 6-7 meters (20-23 feet) away than that distance (in the direction of Trump, not behind). With those ranges in mind, all values are consistent with Crooks firing all 8 shots from a distance of approximately 141 meters from Trump using 5.56 ammunition fired from an AR-15.

The most important shot is the first one, for a few reasons: it was the one that hit Trump, it was the closest to the microphone, and it also hit David Dutch and/or the rail behind him and to his left, giving us the most accurate data for trajectory and distance. The graph below only shows calculations for the first shot only, and for rounds shot from a 16-inch barrel (see long version for details). It gives a range of 136-160 meters.
desmos-graph (10).png
red curve: solution for average velocity and distance of the first shot (uncertainty due to speed of sound: +/-1 meter or so)
red line: minimum distance
green line: maximum distance
purple line: Crooks's distance
dotted orange line: fast bullet (55 grain)
dotted black line: slow bullet (77 grain)

Long version:
I graphed the equation for time difference between shock wave and muzzle blast using the largest (red curve = 0.221 ms) and smallest (green curve = 0.212 ms) time differences from the Trump mic recording, and overlaid the average velocities of fast (purple = Winchester Target 5.56x45 55 grain) and slow (blue = Winchester Match 5.56x45 77 grain) brands of 55.6 ammunition, which is used in most AR-15s, at various distances. (FWIW, news reports claim Crooks bought 5.56 ammo, and that the rifle was a DPMS AR-15 5.56 bought in 2013, which chambers 223s and 5.56s.)
desmos-graph (9).png
The time difference equation uses average velocity, not muzzle velocity or velocity at full distance, so when it solves for a particular distance, the bullet velocity is actually for a distance half the value of the distance traveled. For example, a solved value of 200 m will give an average velocity equal to the velocity at 100 m. Therefore, I doubled the distance numbers given by the bullet manufacturers (velocity at 100 yards = average velocity of a 200-yard shot). Since the manufacturer specs are usually for 20-inch barrels, the actual velocities will be lower than shown if the barrel is 16 inches (the length of DPMS AR-15s) by something like 300 f/s or 91 m/s (black = slow 5.56, orange = fast 5.56 fired from 16-inch barrels).

I calculated 350.8 m/s as the speed of sound in Butler that day, given the temperature and elevation. But others have calculated it at plus or minus 1 m/s, so I used 350 for the left curve and 352 for the right one to give a wider range and account for that uncertainty.

This is rough, but it should give at least a fairly accurate approximation of the possible values, give or take a few meters. With the added proviso that I could have gotten something wrong: basically, the shooter(s) of all 8 bullets couldn’t have been closer than around 120 meters (if firing fast bullets from a 20-inch barrel, 917 m/s average velocity - vertical blue line), or farther than around 161 meters (if firing slow bullets from a 16-inch barrel, 681 m/s average velocity - vertical green line). 120 meters is about the distance to the outer wall of the AGR building. 161 meters is about halfway up the slope of the building behind Crooks. The best calculation I’ve found for how far Crooks was from Trump is 141 meters (155 yards) - verticle purple line. (The circles are just roughly placed on the pic below to give an idea - I didn't try to get Trump's location exactly.)
Screenshot 2024-08-11 at 6.02.56 PM.png
For comparison, I eyeballed the possible ranges for other calibers of ammo used in semiautomatic rifles:

.300 Win Mag and .300 Blackout: 122-137m
.308 Win: 132-148m
.223 Rem: 110-140m
6.5 Creedmore: 127-148m
.243 Win (semiauto?): 110-134m
.458 SOCOM and .50 Beowulf: no match (all varieties too slow)
7.62: 165-180m

The combined possible range of all these different calibers is around 110-150 meters (again, we can probably add 10-20 meters to take into account shorter barrel lengths, giving us 110-170 meters). 110 is on the grass between the fence and the AGF, and 170 m is still on the second building, but on the farther slope. The outlier is 7.62, which would also place a shooter on the building behind Crooks, closer to the third building. Basically, the shots couldn't have come from anywhere behind the building behind Crooks, and probably came from the building Crooks was on.

A note on the time differences: The difference for the first shot is around 0.221 s, the second and eighth are 0.218 s, and the third and fourth are 0.212 s (the fifth through seventh shots are missing either shock waves or muzzle blasts in the recording, so can’t be calculated). There are several different factors that can cause such differences, including 1) shots fired from different guns at different distances (in which case all three first shots would come from different rifles, the farthest being around 6 or 7 meters behind the closest. Others online who have used the time difference equation have reached that conclusion (i.e. different shooters for each shot), but there are other factors, including: 2) a change in bullet trajectory from the same gun (the farther the trajectory from the mic, the shorter the time difference), 3) different grain amounts causing slightly differing velocities for individual bullets, and 4) the tendency of some rifles to lose velocity on each bullet as the barrel heats up. On the last point, here’s an example of a guy whose velocities went down 20 to 30 ft/s for each bullet fired. With all that in mind, the differences between the shots are well within the variations those factors can cause - i.e. they do not rule out all shots fired from the same location.

Since no one heard bullets that sounded like they were being fired from inside a building, and the line of sight from the first floor windows was probably obscured by the risers and the people standing on them, it looks like all 8 shots were fired from Crooks’s position. Any second shooter would have had to have been basically sitting up there with him.

Some supporting analyses from the Peak Prosperity forum:

Greg_N performed a time difference of arrival analysis from 3 recordings which placed all 8 shots within a 2m radius of Crooks’s location. (Interestingly, this analysis also shows both shots 9 and 10 coming from behind the north stands - in other words it doesn’t confirm the 10th shot coming from the south barn and seems to imply that both those shots came from the ground.)

VT used the Copenhaver video (and other measurements) to calculate the distance/trajectory of the first bullet. It aligns with Crooks’s location and not the windows below.
e16dbed8c9700f00d377832de53dec5d3ce38238.png
7c12cd62a50188c4ab63e5b06ce9a024d89bb8df.png
 
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I haven't had time to analyse this video but it shows some interesting details. It's a shortenen semgent by an X user (with some unnecessary dramatizing music) from a longer bodycam video BWC2-122110, which can be found HERE. The X user's video below:


From ca 5min in, you can see Crook's body clearly and in detail (graphic!). Maybe you with the right kind of medica/anatomical knowledge can see something that would give more clues of how and from where he was shot? What surprised me, at least, was how far back from the ridge his body was – did they drag him backwards, if so, why? Also, one officer cuffs his hands with those plastic things, why do that if he's clearly dead? Another weird detail starts at 7:15 in the X video. One of the camouflaged officers puts something that looks like a part of a gun that he picked up from the roof into the belt of the SWAT guy who's wearing gloves. Maybe nothing, but a bit weird.

Here's a screeshot of the gun part, or whatever it is. Can someone identify what that is?

View attachment 100052

My first impression of the screen shot below was that mark on the roof between where the officer is standing and where the rifle is laying could have been hair considering reports of witnesses that they saw a puff of hair. The more I watch that section of the clip the less likely that seems to be the case but if that was an existing mark on the roof, it might be able to be used to confirm the position of Crooks when lining up shots.

hair.png
 
Technical post.

Geez! You were seriously busy! Thanks for all your effort on that. It's funny, I had proposed 3 separate shooters a while back but now that they would all need to be within 6-7 meters of Crooks' position and on a very similar line, where the heck would you put them? Where the heck would you put just one other shooter if there is one?

This is pretty minor but it just bugs me a little.

In the Sky News flyover (see this post), you can see Crooks lying on the roof with nobody around. This is well after the incident because the main door is propped open and you can see Crooks hands zip-tied behind his back (rude, imo). Now, the side window is open.

In this screenshot from the body cam of one of the officers standing on the roof around Crooks body, again you can see that the side window is open. Mr. SS (you can see his arm on the right) is one the roof at this point.

Here is a screenshot from video #9. You can clearly see the side window is closed. Mr. SS is not on the roof yet.

Side Window Closed.jpg

Basically, the three events here are in reverse order. Which means that at some point the window was opened while these guys are on the roof. I can't remember if there is video or something showing this side window open when Crooks was still alive. I don't think there is since, due to it's location, it's incredibly hard to see.
 
Technical post. TLDR: Time difference analysis, combined with information on bullet velocities, gives a possible range of 120 to 161 meters for the distance of the shooter(s) from Trump. Additionally, depending on whatever distance in that range is used for the first shot, all other shots must have come either from the same distance, or from a second rifle no more than 6-7 meters (20-23 feet) away than that distance (in the direction of Trump, not behind). With those ranges in mind, all values are consistent with Crooks firing all 8 shots from a distance of approximately 141 meters from Trump using 5.56 ammunition fired from an AR-15.

The most important shot is the first one, for a few reasons: it was the one that hit Trump, it was the closest to the microphone, and it also hit David Dutch and/or the rail behind him and to his left, giving us the most accurate data for trajectory and distance. The graph below only shows calculations for the first shot only, and for rounds shot from a 16-inch barrel (see long version for details). It gives a range of 136-160 meters.
View attachment 100076
red curve: solution for average velocity and distance of the first shot (uncertainty due to speed of sound: +/-1 meter or so)
red line: minimum distance
green line: maximum distance
purple line: Crooks's distance
dotted orange line: fast bullet (55 grain)
dotted black line: slow bullet (77 grain)

Long version:
I graphed the equation for time difference between shock wave and muzzle blast using the largest (red curve = 0.221 ms) and smallest (green curve = 0.212 ms) time differences from the Trump mic recording, and overlaid the average velocities of fast (purple = Winchester Target 5.56x45 55 grain) and slow (blue = Winchester Match 5.56x45 77 grain) brands of 55.6 ammunition, which is used in most AR-15s, at various distances. (FWIW, news reports claim Crooks bought 5.56 ammo, and that the rifle was a DPMS AR-15 5.56 bought in 2013, which chambers 223s and 5.56s.)
View attachment 100070
The time difference equation uses average velocity, not muzzle velocity or velocity at full distance, so when it solves for a particular distance, the bullet velocity is actually for a distance half the value of the distance traveled. For example, a solved value of 200 m will give an average velocity equal to the velocity at 100 m. Therefore, I doubled the distance numbers given by the bullet manufacturers (velocity at 100 yards = average velocity of a 200-yard shot). Since the manufacturer specs are usually for 20-inch barrels, the actual velocities will be lower than shown if the barrel is 16 inches (the length of DPMS AR-15s) by something like 300 f/s or 91 m/s (black = slow 5.56, orange = fast 5.56 fired from 16-inch barrels).

I calculated 350.8 m/s as the speed of sound in Butler that day, given the temperature and elevation. But others have calculated it at plus or minus 1 m/s, so I used 350 for the left curve and 352 for the right one to give a wider range and account for that uncertainty.

This is rough, but it should give at least a fairly accurate approximation of the possible values, give or take a few meters. With the added proviso that I could have gotten something wrong: basically, the shooter(s) of all 8 bullets couldn’t have been closer than around 120 meters (if firing fast bullets from a 20-inch barrel, 917 m/s average velocity - vertical blue line), or farther than around 161 meters (if firing slow bullets from a 16-inch barrel, 681 m/s average velocity - vertical green line). 120 meters is about the distance to the outer wall of the AGR building. 161 meters is about halfway up the slope of the building behind Crooks. The best calculation I’ve found for how far Crooks was from Trump is 141 meters (155 yards) - verticle purple line. (The circles are just roughly placed on the pic below to give an idea - I didn't try to get Trump's location exactly.)
View attachment 100072
For comparison, I eyeballed the possible ranges for other calibers of ammo used in semiautomatic rifles:

.300 Win Mag and .300 Blackout: 122-137m
.308 Win: 132-148m
.223 Rem: 110-140m
6.5 Creedmore: 127-148m
.243 Win (semiauto?): 110-134m
.458 SOCOM and .50 Beowulf: no match (all varieties too slow)
7.62: 165-180m

The combined possible range of all these different calibers is around 110-150 meters (again, we can probably add 10-20 meters to take into account shorter barrel lengths, giving us 110-170 meters). 110 is on the grass between the fence and the AGF, and 170 m is still on the second building, but on the farther slope. The outlier is 7.62, which would also place a shooter on the building behind Crooks, closer to the third building. Basically, the shots couldn't have come from anywhere behind the building behind Crooks, and probably came from the building Crooks was on.

A note on the time differences: The difference for the first shot is around 0.221 s, the second and eighth are 0.218 s, and the third and fourth are 0.212 s (the fifth through seventh shots are missing either shock waves or muzzle blasts in the recording, so can’t be calculated). There are several different factors that can cause such differences, including 1) shots fired from different guns at different distances (in which case all three first shots would come from different rifles, the farthest being around 6 or 7 meters behind the closest. Others online who have used the time difference equation have reached that conclusion (i.e. different shooters for each shot), but there are other factors, including: 2) a change in bullet trajectory from the same gun (the farther the trajectory from the mic, the shorter the time difference), 3) different grain amounts causing slightly differing velocities for individual bullets, and 4) the tendency of some rifles to lose velocity on each bullet as the barrel heats up. On the last point, here’s an example of a guy whose velocities went down 20 to 30 ft/s for each bullet fired. With all that in mind, the differences between the shots are well within the variations those factors can cause - i.e. they do not rule out all shots fired from the same location.

Since no one heard bullets that sounded like they were being fired from inside a building, and the line of sight from the first floor windows was probably obscured by the risers and the people standing on them, it looks like all 8 shots were fired from Crooks’s position. Any second shooter would have had to have been basically sitting up there with him.

Some supporting analyses from the Peak Prosperity forum:

Greg_N performed a time difference of arrival analysis from 3 recordings which placed all 8 shots within a 2m radius of Crooks’s location. (Interestingly, this analysis also shows both shots 9 and 10 coming from behind the north stands - in other words it doesn’t confirm the 10th shot coming from the south barn and seems to imply that both those shots came from the ground.)

VT used the Copenhaver video (and other measurements) to calculate the distance/trajectory of the first bullet. It aligns with Crooks’s location and not the windows below.
View attachment 100071
View attachment 100073

That's really helpful! So it pretty much looks like, together with what you calculated above, we can now narrow down the possible location of the shooter of at least the first shot even more. I combined what you have came up with, with my calculations/estimations for the first shot. I used as the possible range, 110 meters to 180 meters. The result looks like this (see large blue rectangle):


Best3.jpg

So, now, I'm getting even more convinced that at least the first shot was likely coming from Crooks. And probably the rest of the shots too.
 
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