Failed Trump Assassination Attempt

[Benjamin]

A quick addition: it would be interesting to know if that parapet thingy was constructed later, for instance, after the sell of the building complex mentioned earlier.

AGR was bought in March, 2024. The portico ("a porch leading to the entrance of a building, or extended as a colonnade, with a roof structure over a walkway, supported by columns or enclosed by walls") could not have been built after that because all the Google maps screenshots that have been posted here are from Nov. 2023.

 

[Cosmos]

Also notice it seems that a proposed second shooter behind the parapet could have gotten into that position at any point before Crooks starts shooting from many places within that building complex with rather good cover if he was ducking deep enough while going there: Anyone filming from the rally area would likely not see him going there.

 

[Cosmos]

The only thing that seems to make this somewhat problematic are the two injured people in the bleachers. One or both of them seem to have been shot with the first three bullets. But do we know which of the three bullets could have hit those people? If the bullet that hit Trumps ear also shot any of those two guys, the parapet might become less likely. If it was any of the 2 shots after that first shot it becomes more likely.

Compare it with this:

[…] Here is what I think where the areas are located where the bullet that hit Trumps ear could have come from when extending the lines from the first post above. The areas in-between the two long green lines correspond roughly to the possible angle areas in the first post above, where I think it is most likely for that specific shot to have come from, while not taking into account where that specific bullet might have landed after it hit Trump. The short dashed black lines represent the areas that are increasingly less likely IMO, increasing in unlikeliness the further you go from the long green lines toward the long black lines:

That is why I think, if we just take that one specific bullet that hit Trumps ear into account, until the point it hit Trumps ear, that the 2-story building (left of Crooks building and behind Crooks building, in that picture) is more on the unlikely side for that specific bullet: Or more specifically, everything left of the utmost right window of that building. In other words: only the utmost right window of that 2-story building seems in the realm of good likelihood, to me, for that specific bullet.

 

[Cosmos]

The only thing that seems to make this somewhat problematic are the two injured people in the bleachers. One or both of them seem to have been shot with the first three bullets. But do we know which of the three bullets could have hit those people? If the bullet that hit Trumps ear also shot any of those two guys, the parapet might become less likely. If it was any of the 2 shots after that first shot it becomes more likely.

Compare it with this:

While I tried my best to adjust for parallax errors in the above image (which is hard to do because you have to estimate) the amount of opening of the red lines probably is significantly more above Crooks building then it appears in the above picture/angle if you would view the above exactly 90 degrees from above. It seem to me that the red lines would open up and/or shift significantly more to the right, possibly coming close to the parapet area in reality! So, what I said above might not be a problem after all. Hard to say for sure though.

Edit: Something similar would probably happen with the long green and black lines: they open up more in reality in the area when viewed from 90 degrees above. The left ones possibly shifting more to the left on top of that and the right ones more to the right. Therefore, more windows in the second story building left/behind of Crooks might become possible again for the shot that hit Trumps ear.

 

[Cosmos]

An obvious thing that might make the parapet thing less ideal for the position of a second shooter who shot is that the angles of his shots wouldn’t match up with Crooks angles, although they would be rather close.

 

[RedFox]

While I tried my best to adjust for parallax errors in the above image (which is hard to do because you have to estimate) the amount of opening of the red lines probably is significantly more above Crooks building then it appears in the above picture/angle if you would view the above exactly 90 degrees from above.

Had a go at combining a satellite image with some of the drone footage. Can't guaranty the alignments accuracy, but it should be good enough. Hopefully that'll help.

 

[Cosmos]

Had a go at combining a satellite image with some of the drone footage. Can't guaranty the alignments accuracy, but it should be good enough. Hopefully that'll help.
View attachment 99872

Thanks! That’s much better to make it more precise. I just roughly aligned the relevant points with a ruler and it doesn’t seems to shift as much as I expected (with little parallax issue in your picture above). So the parapet area doesn’t seem to shift into the probable bullet trajectory of the bullet that hit Trumps ear if we assume it hit any of the two injured people. But it is pretty close to be able to do that. Maybe close enough that errors/uncertainties in the measurements/alignments on the pictures could account for it.

 

[Cosmos]

Do we we know with any certainty where the first audible shot that (apparently) hit Trumps ear landed after that point? If so, with that information we can probably locate where the shot must have come from with a petty high precision and rule out if Crooks did it or not. I just tried it out with the assumption that that shot hit either of the two injured people. And with both assumptions it seems to me that that shot couldn’t have come from Crooks and that the location where that shot must have come from must be somewhere else.

 

[RedFox]

Do we we know with any certainty where the first audible shot that (apparently) hit Trumps ear landed after that point? If so, with that information we can probably locate where the shot must have come from with a petty high precision and rule out if Crooks did it or not. I just tried it out with the assumption that that shot hit either of the two injured people. And with both assumptions it seems to me that that shot couldn’t have come from Crooks and that the location where that shot must have come from must be somewhere else.

Ok, adding a little more data.
I think I have found the exact 1st bullet impact site based on the hi-res photos I've looked at:
View attachment 98631
Source for reference: http://npr-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com/c9/4f/99526bd0481e9d51e3e56ca29667/ap24195845267344.jpg

Earlier videos show a spray of something (with the first bullet shot) from behind the two guys that where shot, which I assume was the bullet hitting the railing and causing a puff of debris. If so I think it's likely this is exactly where it hit (you can see it more clearly if you zoom in on the source image).
So unless anyone can see a problem with this, I say we have the exact bullet impact.

 

[Cosmos]

Earlier videos show a spray of something (with the first bullet shot) from behind the two guys that where shot, which I assume was the bullet hitting the railing and causing a puff of debris. If so I think it's likely this is exactly where it hit (you can see it more clearly if you zoom in on the source image).
So unless anyone can see a problem with this, I say we have the exact bullet impact.

Yep, that’s what I assume as well, more or less: the first shot hit/scraped the railing not far away from what you say, and after that, maybe (but not certain at all), hit the Telehandler.

 

[Cosmos]

Do we we know with any certainty where the first audible shot that (apparently) hit Trumps ear landed after that point? If so, with that information we can probably locate where the shot must have come from with a petty high precision and rule out if Crooks did it or not. I just tried it out with the assumption that that shot hit either of the two injured people. And with both assumptions it seems to me that that shot couldn’t have come from Crooks and that the location where that shot must have come from must be somewhere else.

The bolded part is not true, it seems. I did it more properly now with the picture that RedFox provided (which has far less parallax issues). See below. How it looks now should be the most accurate so far, with quite a bit less room for errors in either direction.

If we assume that the FIRST shot that hit Trumps ear ALSO hit the railing (and/or the Telehandler), it almost perfectly fits Crooks position! Which seems to be the most likely scenario.: See green line which represents this. If we assume that the FIRST shot that hit Trumps ear ALSO hit Dutch, it also almost perfectly fits Crooks position!: See yellow line which represents this. If we assume that the FIRST shot that hit Trumps ear ALSO hit Copenhaver (which seems the least likely), it is also not so far away from Crooks position: See red line which represents this. The areas between the black lines represent the most likely angle range for the trajectory of the bullet that hit Trumps ear (without taking into consideration where that bullet went after that point):




So that doesn't proof that Crooks couldn't have made that first shot, quite the opposite, actually. Also notice that the recently suggested parapet area is quite some ways from the green line and seemingly wouldn't correspond with the points on the bleachers side.

 

[Cosmos]

We also could state the above in another way:

If we assume that the FIRST shot that hit Trumps ear ALSO hit either the railing (and/or the Telehandler) or Dutch, or Copenhaver, the location of the shooter who shot that bullet should have been relatively close to the respective lines (green, yellow or red) +- slight deviations in either direction to account for errors/uncertainties. The green line above is the most probable, followed by yellow and then red.

And if we go with that assumption, it seems like we have only a very limited number of areas where a second shooter could have been in the first place. For example, if we just go with the green line as the possible location of a second shooter, it looks like this (represented by the more or less rectangle shapes in green, yellow, orange and red):



The green rectangle on the left is inside Crooks building. All other more or less rectangle shapes/areas are located on the roofs. The more or less rectangle shapes are roughly colored in terms of likelihood: Green: most likely. Yellow: less likely than green. Orange: Less likely than yellow. Red: least likely of all locations.

 

[Ruth]

With respect to shell casings found on the roof - at 04.48: "Watch out for shell casings.... 2,3,4,5 right there". Person with the body cam counts. Not 8, only five are immediately obvious. This would be in line with the first 3 shots not being fired by Crooks.

 

[Cosmos]

With respect to shell casings found on the roof - at 04.48: "Watch out for shell casings.... 2,3,4,5 right there". Person with the body cam counts. Not 8, only five are immediately obvious. This would be in line with the first 3 shots not being fired by Crooks.

I‘ve wondered about that as well a couple of times. I would need to check it again but how it was explained and I understood it as well was that guy just saw those 5, quote, “right there“, in that immediate area at the time and later he or someone else counted 8 because they looked more closely and saw the others. But is that really the case? It certainly curious that he initially counted the exact number that would be in line with the idea of a second shooter having fired the first three shots from somewhere else.

 

[Cosmos]

We also could state the above in another way:

If we assume that the FIRST shot that hit Trumps ear ALSO hit either the railing (and/or the Telehandler) or Dutch, or Copenhaver, the location of the shooter who shot that bullet should have been relatively close to the respective lines (green, yellow or red) +- slight deviations in either direction to account for errors/uncertainties. The green line above is the most probable, followed by yellow and then red.

And if we go with that assumption, it seems like we have only a very limited number of areas where a second shooter could have been in the first place. For example, if we just go with the green line as the possible location of a second shooter, it looks like this (represented by the more or less rectangle shapes in green, yellow, orange and red):

View attachment 99882

The green rectangle on the left is inside Crooks building. All other more or less rectangle shapes/areas are located on the roofs. The more or less rectangle shapes are roughly colored in terms of likelihood: Green: most likely. Yellow: less likely than green. Orange: Less likely than yellow. Red: least likely of all locations.

If we want to really get crazy about it one could also postulate a drone anywhere close to the green line and not too high up in the air having shot those 3 initial bullets. That is, If there is really such a thing. If so, I would guess that that drone must have been at any point relatively near the green line starting at Crooks building extending backwards over the other roofs. But then you would need to make sure to locate and/or capture those casings pretty quickly after the shots. Maybe some of those proposed drones can do that?: Capture the casings directly after the shots and keep them on the drone? Also, the drone would probably be audible for people and microphones near by.