Gray Stevens - Earthquakes, Planetary Alignments and Sunspots

[Palinurus]

On three interrelated webpages the author states his case about possible connections between sunspot activity, earthquakes and planetary alignments.
These are:
Jupiter's Dance: _http://www.jupitersdance.com/
The Last Tango: _http://www.jupitersdance.com/TheLastTango/index.html
The Final Waltz: _http://www.jupitersdance.com/thefinalwaltz/

I did search the forum for the authors name and any related info first, but got no results for specifically this information.

Some snippets to give you a first impression of what it is all about.

Research shows that large earthquakes occur at low sunspot frequencies. A sample of global earthquakes greater than Magnitude 6 for the period 1973-2005 (USGS) compared to smoothed monthly sunspot figures (SIDC) show that 71% of earthquake energy is released and 59% of earthquake events occur at lower than average sunspot activity.
Overall the data also broadly supports the assertion that the larger the earthquake size the lower the average sunspot frequency at the time. Further the top 12 largest earthquakes over the past hundred years (USGS) on average occurred at lower than average sunspot levels.
[...]
The above four graphs demonstrate a link between the planet's relative positions and the sunspot record. The prevailing scientific theory is that the planets do not affect the sunspots, the graphs suggest that they do, in fact, drive the sunspots. It appears that Jupiter, the largest of the planets, is the major factor with other planets combining with it to produce patterns of sunspot peaks which when coincident form the larger peaks we associate with the sunspot record. However, it seems likely that all of the planets are involved to a greater or lesser degree and a precision alignment of any two might significantly affect the sun's output. It also indicates that sun cycles follow very long period patterns as the slower moving planets move into their most potent positions relative to each other only very rarely.
[...]
So what then is happening between the Sun and Jupiter to create the sunspots; a combined tidal effect, a focussing of magnetic fields on the Sun with the inner planet acting as a lens at the time of each synchronised pass of Jupiter and Earth, a shadow effect allowing the Sun's energies to rise to the surface. Let's look at the sky of December 21st 2012, mmmm. Jupiter, Earth, Sun in a line, Saturn, Venus, Sun in a line and Neptune, Mars, Sun in a line, auspicious wouldn't you say. It couldn't be they're all beaming their energy at our Sun simultaneously as a prelude to a mega rash of sunspots which in turn lead to...uulp!
[...]
So what are the potentials? Are we about to see a merger of the Mayan 25526 year cycle with a 26511 year cycle, a crossover of 144 cycles and 149 cycles, a collision of the abundant with the prime?
Certainly we can expect a peak in the sunspot cycle, geothermal upheaval, climate change, sea levels rising and disturbances to Earth's geomagnetic status. All of these events are already noted as currently occurring. What we don't know is the extent. Throughout the Solar system planetary changes are being noted, including a doubling of Jupiter's magnetosphere.
[...]
It is three years since Jupiter's Dance was first published. Since that time further information has been made available and I have continued with some further studies. The majority of the original discourse remains pertinent although as a speculative piece for general readership it contains some flaws. The main departure is that no longer do I expect a "rash of sunspots" around 2012 but rather the pooling of slow moving large sunspots as described during the Dalton Minimum and perhaps recently illustrated with sunspot 1024.
However, the trends remain and there are significant Earth and Solar changes being witnessed. As of the date this is being written, August 2009, we are in a prolonged sunspot minimum not seen for at least a century. The planet continues to see large scale earthquakes at low sunspot frequencies, and growing volcanic activity is producing SO2 and aerosol clouds in the Northern Hemisphere. The most recent of these larger eruptions has been Sarychev Peak in the Kuril Islands, the astonishing photograph below was taken by astronauts on the Space Station June 12th 2009. Previous temperature minima featured such eruptions.
[...]
So, in partial summary, we could say that there is evidence that climate cycles are linked to all three of the synodic periods of the Gas Giants even though, with their synchronised orbital motion, some difficulties arise in isolating which of the cycles might be affecting the climate. It appears that either a tidal or torque effect might be an explanation for a change in solar output, or, that the overall movement of the Sun about the solar system barycentre is implicit in the Sun's variable output. It is suggested that the distribution of mass of the planets must independently and cyclically vary at these points in order to induce the orderly motion that Charvatova indicates is synonymous with warm temperature periods. However, there remains a potential for latitude, orbital distance and relative speeds of the planets to be a factor in the process.
[...]
To conclude it seems that there is a relationship between the planet positions and the movement of the Sun about the Solar System Barycentre which is further linked to Solar output. It also appears that there is an association between these positions and variations in our climate, producing cyclical long-term warming periods and grand minima. The cycles are subject to a slow change in synchronicity and this may account for very long term variations and quasi-periodicity. We do not know the mechanism by which Solar output is changed or whether the relationship detailed is one of several affecting Solar output.
The 3600 year Neptune Uranus cycle synchronises with an approximate 800 year Saturn Jupiter cycle and an approximate 600 year Uranus Saturn cycle. Examination of the synodic couplings of the inner planets may well unveil additional mechanisms that relate to our solar activity cycle.
Solar minima are averagely 60 years in duration so there is some feasibility in the suggestion that the position of Neptune and Uranus around conjunction may synchronise with a series of Saturn Jupiter orbits in succession. With the slow changing of phase determining their potency.
[...]
Each of the planets forms a synodic cycle with Jupiter which contains the largest mass and magnetic field of all of the Solar System planets.
Each of the planets form close to a whole number of synodic cycles around their orbits with a fairly small amount of prograde or retrograde motion.. In each case we are looking at the number of synodic cycles taken to complete a whole orbit. As the synodic cycles are only an average time the variation between each cycle and thus the exactitude of each cycle is not considered here.
[...]
Mars and Jupiter are phased so that the five conjunction cycles of 11.177 years occur 16 times in 178.83 years. This may in some way define the sixteen peak solar activity cycle which we recognise. The 11.177 year cycle is close to the recognised sunspot frequency of 11.171 years. The overall 178.832 year cycle is close to the recognised 178.730 year period of sunspot cycles. The close to transit period for Mars and Jupiter is 35.765 years (16 synodic cycles), five such periods equals 178.825 years.
Two further notable points are that the periapsis of Mars is the first in orbital direction compared to the remaining planets and that Mars' orbit is considerably elliptical thus its tidal force on the Sun is virtually doubled from apoapsis to periapsis.
[...]
To conclude: There is evidence that Mars is influential in the 16 peak 178 year sunspot record although its signature is overwhelmed at intervals by the positions of the outer planets according to a slowly shifting pattern. The inner planets show a closely timed positioning with regard to the bi-modal nature of the sunspot cycle which can be enhanced by the further optimum timing of Mars, Jupiter and Saturn. The evidence indicates a clear relationship of the planets with Jupiter in their influence on the Solar activity cycle. It was always Jupiter's Dance.
This demonstrates why the bi-modal peaks of the 16 peak sunspot cycle oscillate around the Mars conjunction period. The fine tuning of the highest solar peaks occurs as the Earth, Venus and Mercury conjunctions are progressively subdivided in sequence.
Whilst the foregoing work implicates the collective motion of the planets in the solar cycle I have made no reference to what the process of interaction might be. The main contenders under consideration have been tidal effects, changed movement around the solar system barycentre and an electromagnetic connection via the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Or, indeed, a combination of these elements.

I'm not qualified to state an informed opinion on the validity and/or veracity of these statements and conclusions, but I considered these webpages interesting and convincing enough to signal their existence here.

There's also this sidenote from the author:
Whilst it had been my intention to provide Jupiters Dance as a free resource I find that with the loss of my business I am unable, beyond this current year, to keep it online or pursue further research.

 

[RyanX]

It would be a great exposition of some of the effects due to planetary alignments if he didn't delve into Mayan Calendar numerology towards the end:

So how did astrology get in on the act? Well astrology was something of an obsession with ancient civilisations, as they attempted to link planetary movements with Earthly events. But astrology didn't get the clearest run, first the central repository of Eastern astrological information, the Library of Alexandria, burnt down, then the early Church expunged it largely because of the association between planets and paganism. Following this the conquistadors did for the Mayans and the major source of Amerindian astrology with their calendars and long tradition of astronomy. Finally, its watered down namesake appears in the amusement columns of lesser periodicals. Such a fate.

Which brings me to the long count, the 5125.257 year Mayan calendar, ending according to archaeologists around December 21st 2012, the culmination of the fifth period of a larger 25526.3 year calendar. Troubling is the Mayan assertion that this period coincides with a new Sun and the end of the world as we know it by earthquake.

This would be easy to brush aside as ancient myth until one realises that the 25526.3 cycle which the Mayans so elaborately designed can be divided by the 177.925 year sunspot cycle exactly 144 times. A sort of Hitchhiker's Guide To The Universe moment.

The 5125.257 year cycle also contains whole orbit synchronicity between Mars (.015 orbit difference) Jupiter (.084) Saturn (.01) Uranus (.003). Bit of a coincidence then. Imagine, all those planets arriving back in the same orbital positions after a lapse of 25626 years and that being in accord with Mayan calendrics and prophecy.

Astrology 2 - Science 0

So what then is happening between the Sun and Jupiter to create the sunspots; a combined tidal effect, a focussing of magnetic fields on the Sun with the inner planet acting as a lens at the time of each synchronised pass of Jupiter and Earth, a shadow effect allowing the Sun's energies to rise to the surface. Let's look at the sky of December 21st 2012, mmmm. Jupiter, Earth, Sun in a line, Saturn, Venus, Sun in a line and Neptune, Mars, Sun in a line, auspicious wouldn't you say. It couldn't be they're all beaming their energy at our Sun simultaneously as a prelude to a mega rash of sunspots which in turn lead to...uulp!

Sharp these Mayans, sharp as an obsidian blade.

But did they miss something or have the Conquistadors in plundering and destroying their culture and artefacts obscured the truth in their quest for gold. A potential parable for a here and now world.

Further down the chain of 178 year sunspot periods, further on than 144, lies 149, as different from 144 as can be imagined. 149 is a prime number, unlike 144 which is what mathematicians call abundant. One cannot divide 149, except of course by one, whereas 144 can be divided by 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 12, 16, 18, 24, 36, 48, 72 and 144, truly it's abundant. And what's more, 149 only comes around once in 26511 years. Why would planets behave in this way. They occupy these ratios and frequencies simply because if they hadn't they'd have wrenched themselves apart, collided, exploded or otherwise rejoined the mass of debris swirling around our fledgling Sun long ago. What you have are interplanetary motions that are either phased so the planets fail to conflict or, alternatively, consistent with larger primes where the potential conflict is avoided as these planets only meet upon very rare occasions. Now, after about 4 billion years some semblance of order prevails, though temporary. It's simply awaiting the next interplanetary, interstellar pile up or near miss. And 2012 seems to represent that juncture.

If you take 26511 and divide it by 3, itself a prime, you get 8837, another prime number and this period coincides with a number of planetary whole orbits. Earth 8837(exact), Jupiter (.00754 orbit difference), Saturn (.000118). But the 3 cycles that make up the 26511 year cycle come in different flavours, with Mars, without Mars, with sunspots, with Venus etc. and it may be this variety of coincidence which determines the extent of any Solar eruption. Also of importance is where you begin and end your sequence. Whilst the planets will conform to these timings over any such period, as long as their orbital speeds remain stable, their relative position at the start and end of the cycle is all important. Go back from 2012, the next predicted sunspot peak, 8837 years using Solanki et al.(NAOO) proxy sunspot levels and you find the highest peak going backwards in time for, yep, you guessed, 8837 years. Coincidence, or a 9000/1 hole in one?

So, it's a mixed bag, I think. The graph in the beginning where he points out solar minimums and major earthquakes is interesting and should be followed up on with further research.

 

[Palinurus]

Hi RyanX,

I have to agree with you. The issue of the Mayan numerology, although presented like a sort of an afterthought, did spoil it for me too and raised red flags immediately. That's why I didn't include that part in my snippets. Nevertheless, as you say there remains a lot worthy of farther exploration. It's just that I'm not qualified to do so myself.