Is China Preparing a 'Special Military Operation' In Taiwan?

From Pepe Escobar's Telegram this morning:
What has been highlighted is that there seems to be no collaboration on the part of Taiwan in denying Nanci's arrival despite the fact that she does not finally go to the island and instead they ignore referring to the subject, even if his denial is only for show themselves strong and they are only bluffing and taking advantage of the situation certainly does not help give the impression that they take China seriously.
That and that the Taiwanese media would be straight up lying.
 
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As one author suggest, perhaps she has pass her 'used by date' and therefore good for bait now! :lol:

 
I think the US might want to invest in some glass bottom boats, so they will be able to inspect their aircraft carrier fleet and large deck ships stationed around China....
 

China Threatens To Retaliate For Pelosi’s Taiwan Trip By Letting Her Return Safely​


"China reportedly threatened to retaliate Thursday for Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan by letting her return safely."

"Should Nancy Pelosi follow through with her planned trip to Taiwan, China will be forced to take the hostile measure to weaken America by allowing her to return unscathed,”

"warning that any move by Pelosi to legitimize the Taiwanese regime would be met with a first class ticket back so that she is well-rested and ready to return to legislative matters."

The Onion:-)

 
Moon of Alabama speculates on the 'Pearl Harbour moment' mentioned by Jake Sullivan.

I can think of several reasons why Pelosi will not arrive in Taiwan. Here flight might, for example, get diverted. But it is also possible that it happens but is followed by huge consequences, likely to the disadvantage of the U.S. and Taiwan.

There is also this thought, by Cynthia Chung, which might become relevant:

"In October 2019, Jake Sullivan, who became U.S. National Security Advisor in 2021, stated in an interview that the U.S. needed a clear threat to rally the world and play the role of saviour of mankind and that China could be that organizing principle for U.S. foreign policy. In the 2019 interview, he acknowledges that the problem was that people were not going to believe that China is a global threat, that their view of China is too positive and that the United States would need a “Pearl Harbour moment,” a real focusing event to change their minds, something he calmly stated that “would scare the hell out of the American people.”

She correctly traces such 'Pearl Harbour moment' thinking back to neo-conservative movement. Chung closes with this:

Thus, when Jake Sullivan observes that there is not enough anti-China sentiment to bolster an image of the United States as a “saviour of mankind” against China and that America is in need of a “Pearl Harbour moment” I would be very wary.

The circus around Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan in the coming days, and evident glee that is coming forth from many of these neocons frothing at the mouth over this prospect is a clear sign that something incredibly reckless and stupid is about to happen.

Pelosi’s airplane might indeed be shot down on her completely irrelevant and unnecessary trip to Taiwan, and if it is, don’t be surprised if it was the Americans themselves who are behind it, who have shown they are willing to do anything for that “Pearl Harbour moment.”

I for one surely hope that the above does not happen.

Larry Johnson shares some of his own speculations below and lists 5 scenarios for the next thrilling episode in The Show - 'Nancy in Taiwan'.


The Washington, DC political establishment has become so accustomed to lying to themselves and the American people that they are now blind to genuine danger because they insist that their lies are true. You know, the inability of define what is a women; the denial of a recession; and now, dismissing China’s threats of military retaliation if Nancy Pelosi shows up in Taiwan as empty rhetoric.

National Security Council spokesmodel, retired Admiral John Kirby, was all over the board today. First, he insisted that the United States does NOT support Taiwan’s independence. You see, according to the one China policy, Taiwan belongs to China. Got it? But Kirby does not stop there. He then insists that Nancy Pelosi has a legal right to visit Taiwan any damn time she wants. Kirby told CNN’s Brianna Keiler:

"There is no reason for the Chinese rhetoric. There is no reason for any actions to be taken. It is not uncommon for congressional leaders to travel to Taiwan. It is very much in keeping with our policy and consistent with our support to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act. We shouldn’t be — as a country, we shouldn’t be intimidated by that rhetoric or those potential actions. This is an important trip for the speaker to be on and we’re going to do whatever we can to support her."

And to underscore that our commitment to a policy of peace is serious, the US navy is moving its aircraft carriers closer and closer to Taiwan. US Air Force arrives in Okinawa. And Pelosi is telling U.S. and Taiwanese sources that she is headed to Taiwan on Tuesday.

Nancy does not believe the threats that appeared in China’s state media about shooting her out of the sky if she sticks to her plan of flying to Taiwan. Senator Marsha Blackburn, a real foreign policy prodigy, made this keen observation:

"That would be a direct act of war, and the US does not accept foreign policy demands from communist China or any other belligerent bully," says US Senator Marsha Blackburn.

The Chinese are warning with words and action about the consequences of an unauthorized Pelosi visit. China’s envoy to the UN said, “Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan will undermine relations between Beijing and Washington, the United States must understand the consequences.”

It is no mere coincidence that China demonstrated its newest hypersonic missile on Sunday 31 July 2022: China

In a recent development, the Chinese government launched a ballistic missile that resembled a Dongfeng (DF) -17 hypersonic weapon on Sunday, July 31. According to reports, it was launched on the eve of the 95th anniversary of the formation of the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA). The DF-17 is a Chinese solid-fuelled road-mobile medium-range ballistic missile with the DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle. The video released by the Chinese government showed a LIVE-fire launch of the missile from a transporter erector launcher. Meanwhile, the Chinese state media claimed that this hypersonic missile would be almost untraceable.

Here are the possibilities:

  1. Nancy reverses course a decides not to make the visit.
  2. Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China, despite a bunch of angry words, does nothing consequential.
  3. Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China responds with economic sanctions against the west.
  4. Nancy touches down in Taiwan and China attacks a U.S. military target in the region.
  5. The Chinese shoot Nancy out of the sky or force her to land on the mainland.
I find it hard to believe that the Chinese are engaged in mere verbal posturing. Chinese authorities have been quite clear about their feelings regarding Pelosi’s “visit”–the Chinese see it as an attack on China. PERIOD. If the Chinese do back down this will be a major foreign policy victory for Joe Biden. Are the Chinese willing to humiliate themselves to help Dementia Joe out of a bind?

We will know the answers to these question in the next 24 hours.
 
I'd never heard of the term 'salami tactics' before, but it seems to fit the situation well:


Towards accidental war

Beijing has warned of the most severe consequences if Pelosi follows through with her threat to visit Taiwan. This leads many to believe that Beijing is merely bluffing, as risking a war with the US over a trip by a Washington official does not appear proportionate or rational.

However, the nature of salami tactics is to portray all responses as disproportionate and irrational. They entail limited but repetitive advancements to create new realities on the ground. Revisionism in small steps is designed to avoid rapid escalation and eliminate opposition from adversaries and allies, as any response can be portrayed as disproportionate or unprovoked. The political dishonesty of salami tactics is how accidental war starts.
 
There are always more face-saving ways out. Pelosi gets COVID and “cant” go for example.

It is hard to believe something this out-of-hand would actually happen unless there was some agreement behind the scenes. Would the crooks driving the bus try to bluff their way through the card game with stratospheric stakes or rather cut a deal and rig the game with a Known outcome acceptable to all?

That AWACS plane that landed in China during the Clinton reign (I am pretty sure) was an intentional tech transfer with an endgame in mind. Are we really finally at that endgame? I thought the Chinese were just content to let US stumble around in the darkness and fall on our own petard? Or could this be the first wound to one head of the beast?

I guess we’ll know soon enough.
 
The stakes in "poker" are still growing. Whether the tiger will remain paper or not, we will find out by the evening

Immediately 9 strategic bombers of the PRC Air Force were spotted over the Taiwan Strait
9 strategic bombers of the PLA Air Force staged a raid on Taiwan.

Hong Kong's information resources report that the PLA Air Force has sent nine H-6K strategic bombers to Taiwan at once. The latter have worked out a large-scale strike, but, apparently, not only on Taiwan, but also on the US Navy carrier strike group, which continues to be located near the island.

According to Hong Kong journalist Ryan Chan, the PLA Air Force has demonstrated its readiness to use its strategic bombers in order to literally level Taiwan, in case of an attempt to encroach on China's sovereignty. Moreover, a video has also appeared on which you can see that the planes are flying over the Taiwan Strait, clearly demonstrating to Taiwan that any attempts at provocations will be immediately suppressed in the harshest way.


On the presented video footage, you can see how a group of 9 Chinese strategic bombers is flying over the Taiwan Strait, literally a few dozen kilometers from the island. Some of the moments in the presented video are old, however, at the end you can see the real passage of ten strategic bombers over the Taiwan Strait at once.

It is known that China has extended military exercises in the South China Sea until August 6, while, if we take into account the statement of the Taiwanese authorities, Nancy Pelosi's plane should arrive on the island within the next 10 hours, which threatens a large-scale armed conflict if the United States does not abandon the escalation.
Сразу 9 стратегических бомбардировщиков ВВС КНР замечены над Тайваньским проливом

China strikes Taiwan Strait with 50 PHL-16 missiles
China has launched at least 50 PHL-16 missiles towards the Taiwan Strait.

The forces of the People's Liberation Army of China inflicted at least 50 strikes on the waters of the Taiwan Strait with long–range (up to 480 kilometers - ed.) PHL-16 missiles. The impact was massive and was corrected from several directions at once, as indicated by the corresponding video frames.

On the presented video footage, taken on the night of July 31, you can see how China is carrying out a strike on the Taiwan Strait using multiple rocket launchers capable of hitting targets at distances up to 480 kilometers using guided missiles. Initially, it was assumed that the strike was limited in nature, however, according to journalists, at least 50 missiles were fired in total, which became a tough and clear warning that any aggressive rhetoric against Beijing would be immediately punished.


According to open sources, at the beginning of 2022, at least 80 PHL-16 systems were in service with the PRC, which indicates that in reality, China can bring down, at least in theory, up to 640 simultaneous strikes on both Taiwan and the US aircraft carrier strike group, if the latter takes at least- any provocative or aggressive actions against the sovereignty of the People's Republic of China.
Китай нанёс удары по Тайваньскому проливу 50 ракетами PHL-16

Four PLA Air Force fighters broke into the Taiwan air defense identification zone, causing panic among the military on the island
Chinese fighters broke into the Taiwan air defense identification zone.

Against the background of the appearance of information that the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi still plans to arrive in Taiwan (although during the last official statement it was kept silent), it became known that China, to demonstrate the seriousness of the consequences, urgently lifted four J-16 fighter jets into the sky (an upgraded version of the Su fighter-30MKK), who successfully broke into the Taiwan air defense identification zone and practiced strikes.

Against the background of the alleged provocation from both Taiwan and the United States, Beijing decided to demonstrate its readiness to react extremely harshly to any attempt to violate sovereignty. Given that the J-16 fighter jets have electronic warfare systems equal in power to the Su-30 airborne electronic warfare systems, experts believe that it was also necessary to use electronic warfare against radars in Taiwan. Moreover, there is evidence that two sides of the H-6, which carried a hypersonic missile, interacted with the J-16 fighters.

It is quite obvious that if Pelosi's plane tries to violate Taiwan's airspace, China will immediately respond with strikes, especially since all the forces of the People's Republic of China are on full alert.
Четыре истребителя ВВС НОАК прорвались в зону опознавания ПВО Тайваня, устроив панику у военных на острове
 
Pelosi coming to Taiwan.jpg

Biden’s team distance themselves from Pelosi over Taiwan

2 Aug, 2022
The decision is “entirely” the speaker’s own, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that as the third most senior official in the US government, Nancy Pelosi is free to make her own decisions and travel plans, warning China not to escalate tensions if the House of Representatives Speaker ends up visiting Taiwan.

“The speaker will make her own decisions about whether or not to visit Taiwan. Congress is an independent, coequal branch of government. The decision is entirely the speaker’s,” Blinken told reporters at the UN headquarters in New York following a Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference on Monday.

The top US diplomat went on to accuse Beijing of exaggerating the significance of the rumored trip, claiming that if “China tries to create some kind of crisis or otherwise escalate tensions, that would be entirely on Beijing.”

Blinken said Washington expects Beijijng to “act responsibly and not to engage in any escalation going forward,” if Pelosi eventually decided to visit Taiwan, as has been reported by multiple media outlets, citing sources in the US and Taipei.


US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby has also emphasized that the Biden administration has no control over Pelosi’s possible visit, given that Congress is an independent branch of government, and that her trip would not reflect any change in US policy.

“The speaker has the right to visit Taiwan, and the speaker of the House has visited Taiwan without incident,” Kirby reiterated on Monday, referring to a 1997 trip by Newt Gingrich. He added, “Nothing has changed about our One China policy.”

Beijing has repeatedly warned that the One China principle of acknowledging the mainland’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan is a red line that no country is allowed to cross.

Taiwan has been self-governed since 1949, when China’s nationalist government fled to the island following its defeat in the civil war. Beijing considers the island an integral part of the country’s territory.
 
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