The Economic Confidence Model that I discovered back in the 1970's was not based on any particular market or economy. It was devised by taking a list of world panics in the economy irrespective of where they began, utilizing a list of 26 events between 1683 and 1907. It was by dividing 26 into the 224 year time period that produced the basic frequency of 8.615384615. Like Adam Smith, I sat out upon a course of observation to try to understand what made a cycle even exist. Through the course of my studies of the past and observations of the present, I came to realize that the observations uncovered a rich and dynamic structure of interactivity between mankind himself, as well as nature from weather to earthquakes. IN short, what scientists were just then discovering with the aid of computers that could do millions of calculations impossible by hand, that the image of chaos has been completely altered. What may appear to be chaos, is in reality, only complex interaction that can be observed by only pealing back layers upon layers like an onion.....
The onion is indeed complex. We need to construct this in our mind's-eye in the proper form and then we should be able to suddenly see like Neo in the Matrix the layers of code that lie hidden behind the image. It is true that some say we cannot see the forest for the trees. It is true that we can be so focused on a minute detail that we cannot see the whole picture.
When we take a walk, we cannot see the Earth is a globe. We have the sense that it is mostly flat, aide from the contours of hills and valleys. Western culture I believes provides a very narrow form of education that limits our ability to truly innovate and expand in knowledge. The book style learning often becomes man's best way of perpetuating his mistakes forever.
Western culture wants to reduce everything to a linear equation that results in black and white answers. We want to blame everything on one person, one sector, and often one reason. We ignore the inter-connectivity and dynamic structure of life that offers so much if we would just embrace it.
Sometimes we need to observe things at the minute level such as in quantum mechanics. But that does not mean we also ignore the life-sized world or the grand world of the universe. We need to understand what is taking place on all levels of activity and there are times that the countless variables that are taking place between so many individuals, between so many different markets, and then so many different national agendas, that the effects combined produce a lessor complex nature as we move up in time layers.
For example, there is a 8.6 day, week, month, quarter, year, decade, century, and even a millennium layer of time. There are derivatives of time that create different effects still grouped in 8.6 in intervals. However, the most significant seems to take place on what I would call the Generational Level of time, a group of 6 waves of 8.6 years that forms the major wave structure of 51.6 years. It is at this level where the extraordinary complexity on smaller levels combines to create major trends between Public and Private Confidence Waves. Groups of 6 waves of 51.6 start to cause the rise and fall of nations.
The Public v Private aspect is present at all levels of time. It is at times like a child who runs back and forth between two parents to obtain the desired result. We can observe this phenomenon currently between Public and Private swings even on the monthly and yearly level of the 8.6 year waves.....
We must understand that looking down upon the economic structure from high above, we can reduce it at times to a single trend. However, to create that trend is truly a synchronization of tens of thousands of individual facts that are individually created by combination of another layer of thousands of different stimuli......
Now that we understand that what makes one economy boom against all others, or a particular sector within an economy because Capital Concentrates, now we can look at the Economic Confidence Model with the proper perspective. This is a global model of economic activity that highlights this raw fact that man will speculate no matter what and that creates the Capital Concentration. The Economic Confidence Model gives us the perspective of short-term business cycle movements at the 8.615384615 year level, but this frequency moved both up and down in time in layers like an onion. It builds into groups of 6 waves forming a 51.6 year major cyclical wave where confidence between the people and the state alternate at the generational level. This builds into 6 waves again of 51.6 years into 309.6 year waves upon which nations rise and fall.
