Me thinks Cyclone Yasi was a fake.

[anart]

They will only stop feeding the sky with chemtrail when they have some other way of of doing it... some other technique.

After all of this... Maybe I would have been better of saying nothing ?

You might find this article illuminating if you've not yet read it - http://www.sott.net/articles/show/221199-Chemtrails-Contrails-Strange-Skies

 

[NewYorker]

Whatever the truth was in regards to Yasi's strength in the core zone, I can look at the damage in my own yard and know that lower cat 3 winds went through it and I am located two hours drive north of the eye. My neighbours' yard was even worse and actually, his house protected my place from the worst of the westerly winds (this is what I meant by ground topography affecting what the winds do where).
I know folks up north of the Daintree river which is at least five hours' drive north from the edge of the eye and they suffered upper cat 1/lower cat 2 strength damage. I haven't been able to reach someone I know at Mission Beach because her phone is still out.

Regardless of the human impact, my heart is with the wildlife and we are already seeing that severe damage has occured whatever cat it is assigned. Cassowaries have hardly recovered from Larry and they have been whalloped again. Flying foxes and microbats are swarming into rehab and insect food is hardly available for a wide range of wildlife. Even the cane toads have almost entirely disappeared from my yard where they were plentiful before which means that something "odd" is about as the ground dwelling amphibians usually fare these events better than the tree frogs. What folks don't realise about upper cat cyclones is that they spread diseases. I have already been treated for a skin infection just from handlng wet vegetative debris in my own yard. Frog numbers have greatly reduced and if the post-Larry pattern repeats, they also will be swarming into rehab. I have already seen evidence of increased fungal/bacterial problems in them. Humans can argue about the details involved in a storm system and they can make the decision to get out of the way - wildlife can't argue and can't get out of the way. The worse the event is, the more that die during the event or starve to death later (or for amphibians, die from introduced fungal and bacterial pathogens).

Certainly storm patterns are quite different this year. Yasi was still a large spinning system even after it reached the centre of Australia; both Tasha and Anthony had spinning winds over land before they even formed off the coast but yet over water, they hardly had the spinning arrangement typical of a cyclone. You could look at the satellite and think they were lows instead. The intensity of this La Nina has been compared to that of 1974/75 which is when Tracy and the previous Brisbane flooding was. I am wondering in the back of my head, however, whether these seemingly impossible behaviours are really connected to an intense LaNina or a shift in climate patterns (colloquially known as climate change) OR whether early pole shift is involved. If the latter is the case, these patterns will get much worse and far more unpredictable (my gut feeling - no facts to back that up). Plus solar activity has just started to catch up to where it should be (first X class flare last week) so that will throw some big rocks in already disturbed pond !!

Anything is possible of course and some conspiracies (realities) are easier to swallow than others, but if there is a conspiracy involved with the weather and diliberate distortion of the facts to promote scare-mongering, I'd be looking at the media first! If the PTB are involved, all this is costing massive amounts of expenditure in recovery - would you offer some theories as to how they will benefit besides promoting fear?

Cheers.

 

[Third_Density_Resident]

I'm sorry Mjöllnir, but everything you have said makes absolutely no sense. Nothing was "faked". TC Yasi was a Category 5 as it made landfall, then became a Category 4 shortly after this. The damage it caused in many places was close to catastrophic. The reason almost no one was killed was largely due to the predictions given by the weather bureau days in advance of the cyclone's landfall. As someone who works for a meteorological agency as a forecaster, I can tell you that the satellite images we got were identical to what were in the media. We did not have to sign any legal documents preventing us from telling the public that the images we received were deliberately exaggerated and different from what the public saw!

Hi. I still can't see your point. What are you actually saying? That the cyclone was not category 5 when it crossed the coast? Because you don't believe it based on a few pics? Seriously, these things are measured by the barometric pressure and not the amount of damage caused to housing.

Cyclone intensity is measured according to the maximum sustained wind strength, not the barometric pressure. When wind observations are not available, other methods of analysis are used to determine the intensity of the system. Microwave, infrared, and visible satellite imagery are used via a complex method known as "Dvorak Analysis" which relies upon pattern recognition and the evolution of various patterns to see what strength a cyclone/hurricane/typhoon is.

 

[rrraven]

-http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/elnino/story.htm
this may be ,or not,a link to a great doco I once saw on abc on la nina/el nino

it basicly said cyclones like yasi are normal and needed for regeneration of tropical rain forests and to bring water inland

there is a guy,sorry cant find the link atm,who did a study on cyclone damage as recorded by coral reefs,and he has tracked them 5000 years in the past
and he said that we had a lull for the last 150 years or so and cat 5 TC used to be quite common back before us white fellas started recording them

if you look at some aboriginal paintings you can almost see how they are birds eye maps of the country pointing out the high ground that will be safe when the top end turns into an inland sea after a decent TC

as far as the media spin is concerned...I thought they were trying to get people to say how terrible it was and milk for emotional displays of fear/desperation whatever only to be thwarted every time by people simply being happy they survived it and did NOT care about the possessions they lost...it's just stuff ..was a comment heard a lot no matter how hard the reporters tried to push them

btw welcome to the forum from another aussie(mid north coast nsw)

 

[NewYorker]

as far as the media spin is concerned...I thought they were trying to get people to say how terrible it was and milk for emotional displays of fear/desperation whatever only to be thwarted every time by people simply being happy they survived it and did NOT care about the possessions they lost...it's just stuff ..was a comment heard a lot no matter how hard the reporters tried to push them

btw welcome to the forum from another aussie(mid north coast nsw)

Thanks rrraven.
Yes, the media agenda can get lost on aussies!!! - we know the deal and are generally pretty ho-hum about a lot of it - but they still try to d r a g that emotion out of us! "tear-your-out-so-you'll-buy-our-paper" Very silly!
Cheers.

 

[adam7117]

Cyclone intensity is measured according to the maximum sustained wind strength, not the barometric pressure. When wind observations are not available, other methods of analysis are used to determine the intensity of the system. Microwave, infrared, and visible satellite imagery are used via a complex method known as "Dvorak Analysis" which relies upon pattern recognition and the evolution of various patterns to see what strength a cyclone/hurricane/typhoon is.

... and barometric pressure. I understand what you are saying - wind speed is the classic way to describe cyclone intensity based on the observed data. Like in this guide from BOM:

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Impacts

It's neat when you have those readings. But when the weather system is out in the ocean, it's not so easy, is it? A layperson - like myself - can stare at the sea level pressure analysis and still be able to tell the category of the cyclone. BOM agrees and gives the appropriate ranges.

Tropical Cyclones - Frequently Asked Questions
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/faq/

The severity of a tropical cyclone is described in terms of categories ranging from 1 (weakest) to 5 (strongest) related to the zone of maximum wind gusts as shown in this table.

Note: corresponding sustained winds and central pressure are also provided as a guide. Stronger gusts may be observed over hilltops, in gullies and around structures.

[Table presented with the following columns:
Category Strongest Gust (km/h) Average Maximum Wind (km/h) Central Pressure (hPa) Typical Effects]

Category 1 = > 985 hPa
Category 2 = 985 - 970 hPa
Category 3 = 970 - 955 hPa
Category 4 = 955 - 930 hPa
Category 5 = < 930 hPa

Just for the sake of argument and so that others are aware as well - here is an example:

This is the latest MSLP map. In the top right corner, you see a tropical cyclone in the 940's range. I can tell, before BOM posts about its existence that it is Category 4. Carlos is Category 1 and Dianne is Category 2 - but that is already on the website.

I'm sure you can come up with examples where this does not exactly align - and I would be interested in knowing more about it. But it's probably not exactly accurate to say that barometric pressure is not correlated with cyclone intensity. Lots of people use that data - especially sailors.

Still, glad you have said something since you have your fingers in the pie, so to speak. Always looking forward to your input, mate.

BTW, Brisbane is having an absolute shocking weather today. There are wild thunderstorms and very intense rain. It will be interesting to read the news in the morning... The thunderstorms have been continuous and very intense in the CBD and SE QLD in general since 4pm.

It's nearly 7pm now and thankfully things are settling down.

 

[Aurgo]

Surely there is truth in everyones point of view here, and I can see where Mjollnir is coming from.
All I took from it all was over the last few months is that Bligh had a teary Ala Bob Hawke and went from Zero to Hero http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3144271.htm
had our (by the skin of her teeth) Prime Minister follow suit http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4z3J_3UC0yU&feature=related, they IMO seemed
concerned yet too "handled"! Maybe they talked it up a bit Maybe not but through the floods etc they all wanted their piece (what was (Foreign Minister) K Rudd doing there?)!

And also the hidden victims, New Yorker spot on mate! I never thought about the native wildlife I just thought they would've been on to it earlier,I was stuck on livestock etc after
seeing the rural Victorian's working to get theirs out.

Truly there is a lot going on with this country we have no idea about of that I'm sure, so Mjollnir you may have firsthand Knowledge on something we don't and Pine Gap is a perfect example of the who knows category. But if I recall correctly they downgraded it before it hit yet sensationalised it for their own agenda! :O

Sorry bout name spelling mate I've no Idea how to do the accent thing, I'll get my girlfriend on to it for a demo tomorrow!

 

[rrraven]

this morning on the news i noticed the TC off Western Australia seems to be un-usually far south

btw the skin infections are also normal for a wet tropical setting...tropical ulcers we call them or jungle rot try echinacea tincture or tea tree oil

 

[NewYorker]

Hi rrraven,
Cyclone Bianca went all the way down to Perth! Just part of the anomalies in this year's weather patterns, I think. Look at last seasons' Carribbean/Atlantic activity - how many hurricanes were still cat 1 when they reached Canada?!!

I get weird skin problems which are a bit beyond tropical ulcers. I had Strep pyogenes and Pseudomonas auruginosa internally two years ago and required surgery and a pile of very nasty antibiotics to clear it up. When this "rash" turned up and a part of my foot started to turn black and swell up, I jumped onto Staph/strep antibiotics right away until I could get to my doc. They worked and cleared it up quickly (thankfully).
But thanks for the suggestion. I do use tea tree oil for routine bug avoidance and other annoying but not threatening skin issues. The tropics is certainly one place where all these things thrive and I am exposed to far more of this stuff than the average person because I handle diseased wildlife constantly!

Cheers.

 

[Third_Density_Resident]

Yes Adam you are quite right in what you said. Obviously there is a very tight correlation with central pressure and cyclone intensity, and you can infer with reasonable confidence what a cyclone out to sea is based on that alone, but like I said in my previous post, Dvorak Analysis gives a much more accurate idea of the cyclone category. But the official classification of a cyclone's intensity is its sustained maximum wind speed, which is obviously something we don't always have access to.

 

[rrraven]

I was looking for some more ''southern'' cyclones today and found this interesting weather map

at this link-http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=AEDT&area=SH&model=G
Antarctica is circled by low systems...almost like a cropcircle.... and if they were in the tropics they would be named TC s ,to my untrained eye anyway, so are they ''normal''? I had not looked at that particular map before

 

[NewYorker]

Hi rrraven,

I haven't seen it either but I think if you viewed the same map during our winter, it would be very different. I'd be quite interested to see what 3D resident has to say about it. Certainly the central pressure on those systems is very low.

We're in a geomagnetic storm today (peaked at Kp6 this morning, now Kp5) so watch for accellerated weather someplace (existing cyclones somewhere kicking up a cat, microburst storms, etc.) Possibly that low off Q. could turn into something..... its got a little spin on the south side of it. Also large scale black outs somewhere. ;)

Cheers.

 

[Third_Density_Resident]

Hi rrraven, the map you have posted is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's polar synoptic chart. I have studied these charts a fair bit, and it is indeed quite common to have several low pressure systems surrounding the polar high along what is called a "polar front". This is a rather sharp boundary between very cold air and much warmer air. Basically, the boundary marks the convergence of two air masses which then results in cyclogenesis. (Cold air undercuts the warm air which leads to vertical ascent and clockwise rotation.) And the very sharp temperature gradient between the Antarctic air mass and the the warmer Southern Ocean air mass results in intense cyclogenesis and hence substantial ascent of air and very low surface pressures.

These low pressure systems usually become extratropical cyclones when they interact with even warmer air further to the north, especially when one low pressure system "dumb-bells" around the other and is "flung" into warmer regions in the mid-latitudes.

That said, the pressures of the lows in the above chart are lower than average, but not unheard of, at least from my experience. However it is interesting that the kind of weather experienced lately in southern parts of Australia have been colder than normal for this time of year. Some frequent cold outbreaks have occurred in Tasmania, for example, resulting in mountain snow, something that does occur occasionally in summer but not as frequently as it has this past season. The deeper Antarctic lows are the result of more intense cyclogenesis, and thus colder and more vigorous fronts will have penetrated further north, towards Australia.