An expert warns: "The Big One" could cause over seven million deaths—worse than COVID
We thought we had endured the worst with the COVID-19 pandemic. But according to a prominent American epidemiologist, that was merely a taste of what was to come. Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, a professor and expert in infectious diseases, has sounded the alarm: the next major pandemic, which he calls "The Big One," could be far deadlier. His forecast is deeply unsettling: over seven million deaths in the United States alone, and an even more horrific global toll. This prediction is not mere alarmist speculation, but the outcome of a "thought experiment" based on a plausible scenario. His message is clear: if the world does not prepare now, it will once again be "on fire."
For Dr. Oster-holm, COVID-19, despite its devastation, had a relatively "manageable" mortality rate. "The Big One" would be of a completely different nature. He describes it as a "biological bomb about to explode." The catastrophe scenario is based on the emergence of a new viral strain that would combine the worst features of both worlds: extremely high transmissibility and significantly greater virulence. Where the coronavirus put the world on its knees, this new pathogen could knock it completely out, with a global impact far exceeding what we have experienced.
How could such a catastrophe possibly begin? The scenario imagined by the expert is terrifyingly simple. It would begin with the death of a single baby in a remote region at the border between Kenya and Somalia. A humanitarian worker, attempting to help, would unwittingly become a "super-spreader." Traveling across borders, he would silently transmit the virus long before any severe symptoms appear or any warning is issued. This rapid and silent transmission is the key to the catastrophe scenario, making containment of the virus nearly impossible. As Nobel laureate Dr. Joshua Lederberg once said: "Bacteria and viruses know no national boundaries… The microbe that devastated a child on a distant continent yesterday could reach your continent today and spark a global pandemic tomorrow."
Faced with such a threat, a nationalist strategy of the kind "America First" would be completely ineffective, warns Dr. Osterholm. The main vulnerability of our modern societies lies in the globalization of supply chains. The majority of our essential medicines—even the most basic ones—are manufactured in China and India. These countries would become "prime targets for viral spread," leading to an immediate halt in their production. Even if a wealthy country managed to contain the virus within its own borders, it would quickly become paralyzed by shortages of medicines, food, spare parts, and more. The principle that "no one is safe until everyone is safe" is not merely a humanitarian slogan—it is a strategic and economic reality.
So, what should we do? According to the expert, the only realistic defense lies in a massive and coordinated international effort. He outlines three absolute priorities:
- Develop effective new vaccines: We must invest heavily and continuously in research to be able to rapidly develop vaccines against emerging viruses.
- Increase production capacity: Global plans must be established to enable vaccine production to be scaled up instantly to meet demand across all continents.
- Ensure global cooperation: This is the most crucial point. We must end the "vaccinal nationalism" we witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic and work together on funding, logistics, and distribution.
Dr. Osterholm admits himself that such a level of cooperation is "unlikely," but he stresses that it is absolutely essential.
