Near-Earth objects and close calls

A heads up.

Asteroid hits Earth near California moments after being discovered

mmmmmm
© Shutterstock/Triff

An asteroid hit Earth hours after being discovered on Oct 22. This is the third time this year that a space rock was found moments before impact. The asteroid was reported to be around three feet in diameter and was initially named A11dc6D. The day after impact, it was officially called 2024 UQ.

It hit Earth's atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean, so there weren't any public sightings. After being briefly observed, the ATLAS survey kept a watch as the asteroid impacted the atmosphere causing no harm.

The space rock burst into a bright fireball about 1,000 km off the California coast. It was picked up by NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). It reported that a fireball lit the skies at 3:54 am PT on October 22, 2024.

Last month, another such asteroid was spotted just a few hours before it hit Earth
. It burst into a fireball over the Philippines on September 5, 2024. The energy released by the recent asteroid was likely a little less than that of the one that hit the Southeast Asian nation.

Peter Brown, a meteor scientist at Western University in Ontario, Canada, posted about the asteroid impact on X. He stated that this is the 10th time an asteroid impact was predicted in advance.

It is becoming increasingly common because of the efficiency of surveys like ATLAS, Catalina and Pan-Starra, he added.

Asteroid in the Philippines

The Philippines asteroid was 3-foot long, the European Space Agency (ESA) said at the time. It was named 2024 RW1 and was spotted by research technologist Jacqueline Fazekas using the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey, a NASA-funded observatory near Tucson, Arizona.

It turned into a green fireball after impact, and many people happened to watch it.


Comment: Moment asteroid hits Earth's atmosphere like a ball of fire over the Philippines on September 5 (local time) [Update: Calculated total impact energy 0.2 kt of TNT]

Meteorite in South Africa

In August, a meteorite fell in South Africa, the first time in nearly 51 years. The meteorite fall caused a sonic boom which was heard kilometres away. It also caused tremors and some parts of it fell into the ocean.

The last time South Africa reported a meteorite fall was in Lichtenburg in 1973. The country has recorded only 51 meteorites till now, and only 22 meteorite falls.
 
Comet defence in the form of 'whiff of grapeshot' from the moon! Also provides a discussion of existing defence ideas.


ELORA is an acronym for: Earth-Lunar Lagrange 1 (ELL-1) Orbital Rapid Response Array. ELORA is a proposed system to interdict and deflect Potential Hazardous Objects to Earth. It is a series of Lunar dust bags that each perform kinetically like shotgun pellets. They are bagged on the Moon and then individually launched to Earth-Lunar Lagrange point 1, in order to be assembled into massive single payloads of bound-but-separate dust bags – yielding a total of 1000 – 3000 kilotons of TNT (about 2.8 – 4.2 Petajoules) of direct kinetic energy per payload. Twelve of these 1728-bag/200,000 kilogram single payloads are to be assembled, which will station as Trojan ELL-1 payloads; ready to be rapid deployed to any Lunar orbit inclination in order to interdict large (>50 meters) and short notice Near Earth or Potential Hazardous Objects (NEO/PHO) from space. The array as a concept is easy to assemble and offers redundancy, power, and rapidity unparalleled by existing conceptual alternative interdiction approaches.
 
The last screenshot of the CNEOS list was from this post, Aug 11, 2024. Here are those that have entered since then, including the last in July. The calculated total impact energy varies between 0.076 and 0.38 kt TNT, so as they appear in the list, the latest fireballs are quite small.
CNEOS list Aug to Dec 5 2024.png
It is not clear why there are several that do not have velocity components. It could relate to a lack of data. Another question is why they in such cases after all venture to estimate the total impact energy without knowing the speed. Either some information is withheld or the estimates are based on other parameters like colour and brightness, but if that is the case, the accuracy of the calculated total impact energy can not be given with the appearance of exactness, often ± 0.001 kt of TNT which is just one kg of TNT. Alternatively one could argue that probably there is also an inexactness connected with other figures.

Sometimes we observe bright fireballs that lighten up the sky, but do not show up on the list. Were they bright because the atmosphere was particularly clear? Did they not enter the list because they were in the border range of the minimum value which seems to be close to 0.076 kt of TNT? Are there cases where they do not have enough data to give even the velocity, but which would otherwise have made the list if they had had enough data points? Is there a statistical difference between the number of observations made during night and day time, as seen over the area of observation? Like that there are some questions one could ask.
 
The calculated Total Impact Energy is calculated directly from the Total Radiated Energy. It's basically the same information with a simple formula linking the two columns. These data are collected from different sources. Some are from satellites and some from ground-based stations. Earth-based stations can calculate the velocity and its components because they use triangulation (two synchronized cameras or more capture the entry from different places and the trajectory is calculated). I would imagine that it's difficult to calculate with satellites if the fireball was captured in one satellite, and even if it was captured by different satellites, the resolution wouldn't allow precise triangulation. OSIT
 
± 0.001 kt of TNT which is just one kg of TNT
This should read: ± 0.001 kt of TNT which is just one ton of TNT if a ton is 1000 kg, then 0.076 kt of TNT is 76 ton of TNT

To help provide a perspective of what 100 tons of explosive looks like when exploding, here is a video from Science Channel.

One difference between the energy released from explosives, as seen in the video, and what happens when an object from cosmic space hits and interacts with the atmosphere, is that the impact energy is released along the whole path of the entering object, rather from a small area.

Since the atmosphere extends tens of kilometers above the surface, the slowing down of the object and the transfer of energy to the surrounding gases begins high up. An article from the editors of earthsky.org, How high up are meteors when they begin to glow? posted October 21, 2023, writes:

Meteors light up almost as soon as they hit Earth’s atmosphere. So, on average, when you see a meteor, you’re looking at a piece of dust burning bright about 50 to 75 miles (80 to 120 km) in altitude above Earth’s surface.

But the height at which they entirely burn up in the atmosphere varies. Some meteors, such as the Perseids in August, burn up in the atmosphere at about 60 miles (100 km) above Earth’s surface. Other meteors, such as the Draconids in October, fall to about 40 miles (65 km) before they heat up enough to glow and vaporize.

The difference is that the Draconids are much slower meteors than the Perseids. The height in the atmosphere at which a meteor begins to glow depends on its arrival speed. Meteoroids dive into the atmosphere at speeds ranging from 25,000 to 160,000 miles per hour (40,200 to 257,500 km/h).
 
A first glance at the CNEOS data shows a slight increase in the fireball frequency (regardless of their energy) given a certain amount of assumptions. Basically if the cumulative events are fitted by a function "lambda x t^beta" where t is time, if there is no trend then beta=1 but it is slightly above 1 which may hint at an increase. Of course it's just a model (the red dots do not conform exactly to the idealized behavior of the red line) and more thorough analyses are needed, but a priori there might be something there.
Is it significant? I donno. According to this super simplified model, if the rate of impacts stayed the same as at the beginning of the 2000's, we would have around 787 total fireballs since then today. We have 867 instead.

1733437655118.png
 
Last edited:
Session 5 July 2001

VB: Can you show Laura so she can describe to us, the catastrophic situation in our future, our near future?

Laura: It seems as though it will be a progression. Like the beginning of rain, when the first few big, cold drops fall; and then a pause followed by a few more drops; and then, a downpour.

VB: Describe what you are seeing?

Laura: I see rocks - but they aren't very large. They are like the size of your fist. Just a few. And they make something of a stir. An uproar. People will be excited... very upset. It looks like just two - two small rocks. And then nothing else happens for awhile, and then they forget about it. It all dies down. And then, a third, a fourth, a fifth and a sixth - and maybe even a seventh... isolated events, or so it seems. Still small. And then, a big one. All this will go on over a period of months.
 
This one is impressive!

It's a bit weird to me that people are waking up to these kinds of fireballs and thinking they are something new or shocking. Anyone who has been watching the Sott ECS monthly videos will have seen at least one of these (usually several) that are reported every single month going back many years.
 
A first glance at the CNEOS data shows a slight increase in the fireball frequency (regardless of their energy) given a certain amount of assumptions. Basically if the cumulative events are fitted by a function "lambda x t^beta" where t is time, if there is no trend then beta=1 but it is slightly above 1 which may hint at an increase. Of course it's just a model (the red dots do not conform exactly to the idealized behavior of the red line) and more thorough analyses are needed, but a priori there might be something there.
Is it significant? I donno. According to this super simplified model, if the rate of impacts stayed the same as at the beginning of the 2000's, we would have around 787 total fireballs since then today. We have 867 instead.

View attachment 104074
Time unit is year, meaning that there's an average of 31.66 fireballs per year (fitted lambda value)?

And even if you call it "super simplified", it's also super cool and super easy to understand and from the plot it can be directly read when there were periods of increased and decreased fireball activity.
Thanks a lot! :flowers:

Edit: Does the fitted line (just) lambda*t give much different lambda value from the one on the plot? Next step might be to do piecewise fit around the intervals where dots diverge a bit more from the fitted line, but overall as it is now, it's very informative. Thanks again.
 
Last edited:
By Samantha Mathewson Published 18 hours ago

1733806717965.webp
Construction of the world's largest telescope moves forward with progress of the structure's dome and housing for the primary mirror.

The European Southern Observatory's (ESO) Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) — the world's largest visible- and infrared-light telescope — is currently under development on the Cerro Armazones mountain in Chile's Atacama Desert. The mighty telescope is expected to see its "first light" by 2028, with the goal of observing terrestrial exoplanets and their atmospheres, as well as measuring the expansion of the universe.

New photos from the ESO reveal that progress has really been made with construction of the ELT, including its dome, central structure and base of the M1 mirror — one of five mirrors that will work together to observe the cosmos.

The ELT "will be one of the main flagships of the European Southern Observatory for the next two decades," the ESO said in a statement releasing the new images.

Once complete, the M1 mirror will measure 128 feet (39 meters) across and weigh a whopping 200 tons. The white lattice structure shown in the center of the dome will hold the M1 mirror, allowing it to move smoothly during observations and compensate for varying gravity loads, wind conditions, vibrations, or changes in temperature.

On-site webcams, drone footage and photographs of the construction site allow for step-by-step progress updates of the ELT. In addition to the recent photos shared by the ESO, you can track development of the telescope through interactive webcam footage that streams live 24/7. The observatory also shared a time-lapse video of the construction site, with the warm glow of the sun rising over the optical telescope.

If all goes according to plan, the anticipated development timeline for the ELT will see the telescope's secondary mirror (M2) completed in 2025. The 14-foot (4.25-meter) mirror — the largest convex mirror ever produced — will reflect light collected by M1 to the 12-foot (3.75-meter) tertiary mirror (M3), which has an estimated completion date in 2027. This mirror system will allow for better quality of observations over a larger field of view. The dome and telescope structure are on track to be completed by 2026.

NASA JPL discovers two types of comets that move like asteroids and discover dark comets.

Dec. 9, 2024
These celestial objects look like asteroids but act like comets now come in two flavors.

The first dark comet — a celestial object that looks like an asteroid but moves through space like a comet — was reported less than two years ago. Soon after, another six were found. In a new paper, researchers announce the discovery of seven more, doubling the number of known dark comets, and find that they fall into two distinct populations: larger ones that reside in the outer solar system and smaller ones in the inner solar system, with various other traits that set them apart.

The findings were published on Monday, Dec. 9, in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Scientists got their first inkling that dark comets exist when they noted in a March 2016 study that the trajectory of “asteroid” 2003 RM had moved ever so slightly from its expected orbit. That deviation couldn’t be explained by the typical accelerations of asteroids, like the small acceleration known as the Yarkovsky effect.

“When you see that kind of perturbation on a celestial object, it usually means it’s a comet, with volatile material outgassing from its surface giving it a little thrust,” said study coauthor Davide Farnocchia of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. “But try as we might, we couldn’t find any signs of a comet’s tail. It looked like any other asteroid — just a pinpoint of light. So, for a short while, we had this one weird celestial object that we couldn’t fully figure out.”

Weird Celestial Objects

Farnocchia and the astronomical community didn’t have to wait long for another piece of the puzzle. The next year, in 2017, a NASA-sponsored telescope discovered history’s first documented celestial object that originated outside our solar system. Not only did 1I/2017 U1 (‘Oumuamua) appear as a single point of light, like an asteroid, its trajectory changed as if it were outgassing volatile material from its surface, like a comet.

“‘Oumuamua was surprising in several ways,” said Farnocchia. “The fact that the first object we discovered from interstellar space exhibited similar behaviors to 2003 RM made 2003 RM even more intriguing.”

By 2023, researchers had identified seven solar system objects that looked like asteroids but acted like comets. That was enough for the astronomical community to bestow upon them their own celestial object category: “dark comets.” Now, with the finding of seven more of these objects, researchers could start on a new set of questions.

“We had a big enough number of dark comets that we could begin asking if there was anything that would differentiate them,” said Darryl Seligman, a postdoctoral fellow in the department of Physics at Michigan State University, East Lansing, and lead author of the new paper. “By analyzing the reflectivity,” or albedo, “and the orbits, we found that our solar system contains two different types of dark comets.”

Two Kinds of Dark Comets

The study’s authors found that one kind, which they call outer dark comets, have similar characteristics to Jupiter-family comets: They have highly eccentric (or elliptical) orbits and are on the larger side (hundreds of meters or more across).

The second group, inner dark comets, reside in the inner solar system (which includes Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars), travel in nearly circular orbits, and are on the smaller side (tens of meters or less).

Like so many astronomical discoveries, Seligman and Farnocchia’s research not only expands on our knowledge of dark comets, but it also raises several additional questions: Where did dark comets originate? What causes their anomalous acceleration? Could they contain ice?

“Dark comets are a new potential source for having delivered the materials to Earth that were necessary for the development of life,” said Seligman. “The more we can learn about them, the better we can understand their role in our planet’s origin.”

For more information about asteroids and comets, visit: https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/topics/asteroids/



There was another lunar impact flash tonight. I filmed it at 360fps from my home at 22:34:35 on December 8, 2024 (slow playback) and was able to confirm it with multiple telescopes. Bright meteors and fireballs have been appearing every day, but lunar impact flashes have also been captured one after another.

Related: 🤔


 
Back
Top Bottom