Near-Earth objects and close calls
- Thread starter Gawan
- Start date
This week, I felt the need to re-read "Comets and the Horns of Moses". Yesterday, on Halloween, while reading chapter 3 about the Taurid meteor stream, I took a break and decided to do my daily visit to spaceweather.com. On the front page was this brief new story.
"HALLOWEEN FIREBALLS ARE SCARIER THAN WE THOUGHT: Right now, Earth is passing through a stream of debris from Comet Encke--source of the annual "Halloween Fireballs." These slow-moving meteors streak from the constellation Taurus during weeks around Halloween. If you see one tonight, it could foreshadow something genuinely scary. New peer-reviewed research suggests that hazardous Tunguska-class objects may be lurking within the stream--and Earth could run into one in the 2030s. Happy Halloween?”
I downloaded the research paper linked in the story (attached for those that want to read further). The abstract of the paper states:
"Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its
consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is
based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness,
which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have
been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent
catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant
swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it.
The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth’s orbit twice a year at its nodes.
Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been
comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated
with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational
campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above
the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects
the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of
airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is
probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there
is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and
risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience
increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey
campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially
hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors."
Notice the years 2032 and 2036 and the term "imminent impactors". Could this be why the PTB are in a rush to complete their Agenda 2030 control effort because something wicked this way comes despite how the authors try to downplay catastrophism?
"HALLOWEEN FIREBALLS ARE SCARIER THAN WE THOUGHT: Right now, Earth is passing through a stream of debris from Comet Encke--source of the annual "Halloween Fireballs." These slow-moving meteors streak from the constellation Taurus during weeks around Halloween. If you see one tonight, it could foreshadow something genuinely scary. New peer-reviewed research suggests that hazardous Tunguska-class objects may be lurking within the stream--and Earth could run into one in the 2030s. Happy Halloween?”
I downloaded the research paper linked in the story (attached for those that want to read further). The abstract of the paper states:
"Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its
consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is
based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness,
which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have
been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent
catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant
swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it.
The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth’s orbit twice a year at its nodes.
Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been
comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated
with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational
campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above
the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects
the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of
airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is
probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there
is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and
risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience
increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey
campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially
hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors."
Notice the years 2032 and 2036 and the term "imminent impactors". Could this be why the PTB are in a rush to complete their Agenda 2030 control effort because something wicked this way comes despite how the authors try to downplay catastrophism?
Even allowing for the fact that we are in the middle of the Taurid meteor shower the first 3 days of November has seen a large number of fireballs recorded on video particularly over North America.
Large meteor fireball over Algeria (Nov. 2)
Daytime meteor fireball over Victoria, Australia on November 2
Meteor fireball over southern Spain (Nov. 1)
Meteor fireball over Idaho, 2 other states and Alberta on November 3
Meteor fireball over Québec, Ontario and 6 states in America on November 3
Meteor fireball over Connecticut and adjacent states on November 2
Meteor fireball over Connecticut and 4 other states on November 2
Meteor fireball over Colorado and Nebraska on November 2
Meteor fireball over Virginia and 8 other states on November 2
Meteor fireball over Connecticut, 4 other states and Quebec on November 2
Meteor fireball over the Netherlands and 4 other countries on November 1
Meteor fireball over California and 2 other states on November 1
Meteor fireball over California on November 1
Meteor fireball over Indiana and 6 other states on November 1
Large meteor fireball over Algeria (Nov. 2)
Daytime meteor fireball over Victoria, Australia on November 2
Meteor fireball over southern Spain (Nov. 1)
Meteor fireball over Idaho, 2 other states and Alberta on November 3
Meteor fireball over Québec, Ontario and 6 states in America on November 3
Meteor fireball over Connecticut and adjacent states on November 2
Meteor fireball over Connecticut and 4 other states on November 2
Meteor fireball over Colorado and Nebraska on November 2
Meteor fireball over Virginia and 8 other states on November 2
Meteor fireball over Connecticut, 4 other states and Quebec on November 2
Meteor fireball over the Netherlands and 4 other countries on November 1
Meteor fireball over California and 2 other states on November 1
Meteor fireball over California on November 1
Meteor fireball over Indiana and 6 other states on November 1
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