Currently new Zealand is in the middle of an election campaign. After 6 long years of a Labour government, there is a change coming. From my perspective though, I do wonder whether the change is going to be any better than what we currently have.
Let me back up a bit and give you some history, because the political system is quite complex.
Thirty odd years ago, NZ moved from a first past the post voting system to a mixed member Proportional system (MMP). it is quite clear that the purpose of MMP is to give minor parties a voice in government. As a result it is unusual for any one party to have a majority, and parties are forced to form coalitions in order to reach a governing majority.
Under MMP, each voter gets to cast 2 votes - 1 for the party of their choice and 1 for a candidate in their particular electorate. Under current MMP rules, a political party that wins at least one electorate seat, or five percent of the party vote, gets a share of the seats in Parliament. This share is about the same as its share of the party vote.
The total number of seats a party can have is first determined by the party vote. Then, the number of electorate seats the party has won are subtracted from this total. Yes, complicated. For example
During their 1st term, we had the Christchurch massacre occur, for which people gave Jacinda Ardern many brownie points for the way she handled it. Then of course, we had Covid. Like most other countries, NZ suffered through daily press briefings and relentless fear porn. The consequence of this was a huge number of people (erroneously) thought Ardern had done a great job keeping them safe, so in 2020, Labour were re-elected with a majority, so they were capable of governing by themselves.
What followed can only be described as a disaster. Masks, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, 2 classes of people, relentless propaganda, statements about the government as the sole source of truth et al. In tandem with this, Ardern started to force through parliament a bunch of policies her government had not campaigned on, and that were clearly ideologically driven. These included
1. Net Zero climate policy
2. Trans promotion and support
3. Giving water rights into Maori control (known as 3 Waters)
4. Co-governance - which is all about giving Maori who represent about 16% of the population majority control over all legislation
5. Setting up a separate Maori health system
6. Forcing of Maori language into everything - government departments renamed, attempt to rename the country to Aotearoa.
7. Deliberate attempt to empty the prison system (because Maori represent around 60% of inmates while only 16% of the population hence the legal system must be racist)
All of these items have ended up causing a massive divide in the country. Supporters calling everyone else disgusting racists. In the 30 years I have lived in NZ, I've never seen the country so divided.
In conjunction with this, the government went on a spending spree, all in the name of Covid, but so much of the money earmarked for Covid was spent on other ideological projects. End result - According to the IMF, New Zealand is now running the second largest fiscal deficit of all the developed economies with debt that amounts to more than $160 billion.
As a consequence, a LOT of people have just had enough. So there is no doubt a change is coming.
And here is the rub. The 2 main parties, Labour and National, were traditionally the parties of the Left and the Right. Unfortunately National have moved left and are now really just Labour Lite. In all matters of import for most kiwis, Labour and National are marching in lockstep - climate change, co-governance, 3 waters, trans issues, vaccine mandates etc.
In order for there to be a real change then, one of the minor parties has to achieve enough seats to be the balance of power. There are really only 2 parties shaping up to be able to do that. the ACT party and New Zealand First. Unfortunately ACT aren't much better than National, at least in the areas of climate, vaccine mandates and trans issues. Which leaves NZF. Now, NZF are saying all the right things - they are opposed to pretty much all the points listed above and are vigorously campaigning against them. Problem is, a LOT of people don't trust Winston Peters because they felt he should have gone with National in 2017 as they had more seats than Labour. And they blame him for the fiasco of the last 6 years. The polls show ACT as the kingmaker currently, with NZF slowly building, so by the time the election comes around in October it is possible either party could be in a position to rein in National.
To further complicate matters, there are a significant percentage of people known loosely as the Freedom Voters. Thes people will never vote Labour or National as they felt betrayed ,particularly around the vaccine mandates and the way the major parties handled the huge protest at parliament. Labour, National and ACT refused to speak to the protesters, denigrated them and set the police on them. The only politician who did visit them was Winston Peters who was not a sitting parliamentarian at the time. To cater to these voters, a number of smaller parties have sprung up. However the chance of any of these parties managing to either win an electorate or get 5% of the vote is vanishingly small. And to further complicate matters, they are all driven by people with big egos, so there is no chance of them pooling resources and working together under one banner, in fact they are actively gaslighting each other.
To round out the story, we have the minor parties on the left - the Greens and the Maori Party. Both unashamedly marxist in position, both working to bring down the current system, both effectively furthering the divide over race and climate issues.
So, quite a mess. One thing is for sure. There will be a change of dominant political party in October. IMO the chance of there being any significant change in direction is slim to none.
As you would expect, there is a huge amount of activity around the election on Twitter. My policy on Twitter interactions is 1. to try to present truth wherever possible and 2. to give truth to the many lies that are being promulgated (based on the premise that a lie deserves the truth). So many people invested in their ideology, so many people spouting lies.
Let me back up a bit and give you some history, because the political system is quite complex.
Thirty odd years ago, NZ moved from a first past the post voting system to a mixed member Proportional system (MMP). it is quite clear that the purpose of MMP is to give minor parties a voice in government. As a result it is unusual for any one party to have a majority, and parties are forced to form coalitions in order to reach a governing majority.
Under MMP, each voter gets to cast 2 votes - 1 for the party of their choice and 1 for a candidate in their particular electorate. Under current MMP rules, a political party that wins at least one electorate seat, or five percent of the party vote, gets a share of the seats in Parliament. This share is about the same as its share of the party vote.
The total number of seats a party can have is first determined by the party vote. Then, the number of electorate seats the party has won are subtracted from this total. Yes, complicated. For example
- In the 2008 election, the Green Party failed to win any electorate seats, but won 6.7% of the party vote and so earned nine seats in Parliament.
- Any party that wins one or more electorate seats is entitled to a share of the nominally 120 seats in the House of Representatives, based on the percentage of the party vote, even if it does not win at least 5% of the party vote. In 2008, the ACT Party won only 3.6% of the party vote, but ACT got a total of five seats in the House because an ACT candidate won the Epsom electorate; this has been called the "coat-tailing" rule.
During their 1st term, we had the Christchurch massacre occur, for which people gave Jacinda Ardern many brownie points for the way she handled it. Then of course, we had Covid. Like most other countries, NZ suffered through daily press briefings and relentless fear porn. The consequence of this was a huge number of people (erroneously) thought Ardern had done a great job keeping them safe, so in 2020, Labour were re-elected with a majority, so they were capable of governing by themselves.
What followed can only be described as a disaster. Masks, lockdowns, vaccine mandates, 2 classes of people, relentless propaganda, statements about the government as the sole source of truth et al. In tandem with this, Ardern started to force through parliament a bunch of policies her government had not campaigned on, and that were clearly ideologically driven. These included
1. Net Zero climate policy
2. Trans promotion and support
3. Giving water rights into Maori control (known as 3 Waters)
4. Co-governance - which is all about giving Maori who represent about 16% of the population majority control over all legislation
5. Setting up a separate Maori health system
6. Forcing of Maori language into everything - government departments renamed, attempt to rename the country to Aotearoa.
7. Deliberate attempt to empty the prison system (because Maori represent around 60% of inmates while only 16% of the population hence the legal system must be racist)
All of these items have ended up causing a massive divide in the country. Supporters calling everyone else disgusting racists. In the 30 years I have lived in NZ, I've never seen the country so divided.
In conjunction with this, the government went on a spending spree, all in the name of Covid, but so much of the money earmarked for Covid was spent on other ideological projects. End result - According to the IMF, New Zealand is now running the second largest fiscal deficit of all the developed economies with debt that amounts to more than $160 billion.
As a consequence, a LOT of people have just had enough. So there is no doubt a change is coming.
And here is the rub. The 2 main parties, Labour and National, were traditionally the parties of the Left and the Right. Unfortunately National have moved left and are now really just Labour Lite. In all matters of import for most kiwis, Labour and National are marching in lockstep - climate change, co-governance, 3 waters, trans issues, vaccine mandates etc.
In order for there to be a real change then, one of the minor parties has to achieve enough seats to be the balance of power. There are really only 2 parties shaping up to be able to do that. the ACT party and New Zealand First. Unfortunately ACT aren't much better than National, at least in the areas of climate, vaccine mandates and trans issues. Which leaves NZF. Now, NZF are saying all the right things - they are opposed to pretty much all the points listed above and are vigorously campaigning against them. Problem is, a LOT of people don't trust Winston Peters because they felt he should have gone with National in 2017 as they had more seats than Labour. And they blame him for the fiasco of the last 6 years. The polls show ACT as the kingmaker currently, with NZF slowly building, so by the time the election comes around in October it is possible either party could be in a position to rein in National.
To further complicate matters, there are a significant percentage of people known loosely as the Freedom Voters. Thes people will never vote Labour or National as they felt betrayed ,particularly around the vaccine mandates and the way the major parties handled the huge protest at parliament. Labour, National and ACT refused to speak to the protesters, denigrated them and set the police on them. The only politician who did visit them was Winston Peters who was not a sitting parliamentarian at the time. To cater to these voters, a number of smaller parties have sprung up. However the chance of any of these parties managing to either win an electorate or get 5% of the vote is vanishingly small. And to further complicate matters, they are all driven by people with big egos, so there is no chance of them pooling resources and working together under one banner, in fact they are actively gaslighting each other.
To round out the story, we have the minor parties on the left - the Greens and the Maori Party. Both unashamedly marxist in position, both working to bring down the current system, both effectively furthering the divide over race and climate issues.
So, quite a mess. One thing is for sure. There will be a change of dominant political party in October. IMO the chance of there being any significant change in direction is slim to none.
As you would expect, there is a huge amount of activity around the election on Twitter. My policy on Twitter interactions is 1. to try to present truth wherever possible and 2. to give truth to the many lies that are being promulgated (based on the premise that a lie deserves the truth). So many people invested in their ideology, so many people spouting lies.
