Passenger Plane Crashes at Rostov-on-Don Airport in Russia

[Eboard10]

Might be a combination of both but I'm still suspicious...wouldn't it need to be intentional to be able to achieve such a vertical drop?

Do you mean that you suspect that it was a "terror attack"? Ok, but then how do you reconcile this theory with the fact that it happened more than two hours after the intended landing? That if the weather was ok, or if the pilot would choose to land in another airport, the crash "would never happen"?

I meant to say that if it were due to pilot error, it would be hard to believe that it happened because of incompetence or hubris, but it would have to be intentional to achieve such a drop. So I'm leaning more towards other reasons, such as unusual weather conditions.

 

[United Gnosis]

I know high-intensity vortex air flows (unusual weather conditions) have been used recently.to start explaining planes breaking up in mid-aid. But this plane was flying at a very low altitude already - how likely is it that it would hit such an air gust, which I understand to be climactic/electromagnetic disruptions of the upper stratosphere?

Considering the origin of the plane and the nationality of its passengers, I still tend towards foul play as most likely - how hard is it to remotely control a plane these days, anyway?

 

[Andrian]

What a tragedy, just read it on RT, what cought my attention by reading the article on Rt and by reading all your comment in the thread are 2 things, first the plane fell like a stone from the sky and second Tiny pieces of the aircraft are scattered over a large part of the runway at Rostov-on-Don’s airport.

http://<iframe width="560" height="...Gw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

The latest updates from RT:

16:10 GMT

“According to preliminary information, the Boeing fell vertically, practically nose-diving into the ground. The debris was dispersed a short distance. And the fragments are small,” a source in the emergency service said.

15:35 GMT

Seventeen of the 62 people killed in the plane crash were foreign citizens, Victor Yatsutsenko, head of EMERCOM National Crisis Management Centre, confirmed during a press statement in Moscow.

“Eleven of the 55 passengers were citizens of foreign states and their names have already been identified. Six of seven crew members were also citizens of foreign states,” Yatsutsenko said.

15:15 GMT

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has joined Chancellor Angela Merkel in offering condolences to the Russian government, relatives and friends of those killed in the crash, the ministry’s press service reported.

14:45 GMT

The plane crash site experienced a very rare natural phenomenon – the so-called jet stream with wind speeds exceeding 100 km/h, close to hurricane force, an expert from the FOBOS weathercast center told the RBC news channel.

14:34 GMT

In a telephone conversation Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Pavlo Klimkin expressed condolences to each other over the deaths in the plane crash and agreed to cooperate, according to a statement posted on Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Ministry official website. The staff of Ukraine’s consulate-general in Rostov-On-Don and relatives will get access to the bodies of the Ukrainians killed in the plane crash, it added.

14:03 GMT

Lamberto Zannier, head of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), has expressed sympathy over the plane crash in Rostov-on-Don.

13:48 GMT

Forensic identification of FZ981 passengers might start as early as Saturday, Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov announced.

13:42 GMT

The Russian Emergency Ministry reports that over 850 specialists from various organizations are currently working at the crash site, along with 170 vehicles and hardware units. Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov said earlier that repairs to the airstrip in Rostov-on-Don would take at least 10 hours.

13:41 GMT

Contact has been established with relatives of 47 out of the 55 passengers on FlyDubai flight FZ981, the governor of the Rostov region Vasily Golubev reported.

The relatives of the foreign citizens that died in the crash would be granted Russian visas using a simplified procedure, Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov told media.

12:48 GMT

FlyDubai total insurance cover exceeds $500 million. "This money is enough to pay compensation to relatives of the victims," TASS cited Russian Minister of Transport Maxim Sokolov as telling media. FlyDubai was insured by the Emirates' companies, and had been re-insured in the UK, Sokolov said.

 

[Eboard10]

I know high-intensity vortex air flows (unusual weather conditions) have been used recently.to start explaining planes breaking up in mid-aid. But this plane was flying at a very low altitude already - how likely is it that it would hit such an air gust, which I understand to be climactic/electromagnetic disruptions of the upper stratosphere?

Considering the origin of the plane and the nationality of its passengers, I still tend towards foul play as most likely - how hard is it to remotely control a plane these days, anyway?

True, but to Keith's point, how would it explain the fact that it happened 2 hours after its supposed landing time? Remote control/EM pulse attacks are likely planned way ahead of the actual day of the event and, to ensure a very high success rate, the hijacking itself would be planned to happen during the scheduled flight time, not some 2 hours after due to unpredictable weather.

 

[Richs]

A speaker on RT speculated that the reason for the crash is not due to the plane losing power but rather the pilot having been disoriented prior to the landing due to the severe weather condition, but wouldn't it need to be intentional to be able to achieve such a vertical drop?

I can understand the pilot's sheer desperation, having lived through a similar experience while piloting a small aircraft with two passengers. After 15 minutes of slowly climbing in the clouds over mountainous terrain I became thoroughly disoriented, the plane tumbling, and for an instant a thought crossed my mind: "f*ck it, I cannot take any more of this, let me just dive and be done with it". As luck would have it, two seconds later I was out and above the clouds, instantly everything clearing up to blue sky and sunshine.
So I imagine the poor guy after 2 hours of wind, rain, turbulence, disorientation, in total darkness.

I too am a pilot and know how difficult it can be to 'hand fly' a plane in instrument conditions (without the assistance of the autopilot to keep the plane in the proper attitude, flight path and altitude). After a missed approach the pilot would not be immediately using the autopilot and would usually be controlling the plane manually. While it is very unusual for an airline qualified pilot to get disoriented and lose control of a plane, it is a fairly common cause of accidents for less experienced pilots, especially for those who do not have instrument ratings, but even sometimes for those who are qualified to fly in instrument conditions where no ground can be seen.

A 21,000 feet per minute descent rate is equal to 238 miles per hour downward. The only way I can see this happening is if the pilot lost control of the plane and allowed it to turn on it's side, or even upside down momentarily. This would mean there was no lift in the 'upward' direction at all, and maybe even for a short time the lift would be operating in the 'downward' direction. Even as little as several seconds would cause a plane to begin to descend at a fantastic rate downwards, which would normally never be possible.

As an example as to how quickly a descent at a crazy sounding speed can occur, a small plane such as a Cessna 150 (which is rated for spins) within 3 or 4 seconds after entering a spin will be descending at about 5,000 feet per minute!

For those who don't understand how a pilot can be so fooled, even if rated for such conditions and very experienced, please remember that what an occupant of an aircraft feels is simply the force of the wings interacting with the flow of air the plane is passing through. It does not matter at all what the attitude of the plane is in relation to the ground below. Even if totally upside down in relation to the Earth, the passengers will still feel as if the plane is straight and level in relation to the Earth, even though it is not. So, there is absolutely no way to tell by what one feels about a plane's attitude and the pilot must totally rely on the instruments to determine the attitude.

It only takes a short time of inattention or distraction before a plane can be totally out of control, and since the plane was still at a very low altitude, there would be insufficient altitude and time to recover level flight again to avoid a crash.

There is also the possibility, even though very low, of instrument failure or some other failure which might have happened at a very unfortunate time.

At this point, from the information we currently have, it does not look to me that any terrorism is involved in this crash, but only pilot errors which caused it, or a small possibility of instrument or system failure of some sort.

 

[loreta]

There are some things that don't make much sense and there are some others that may (or may not) mean something.

1. First, while some planes were actually diverted to other airports, some, at least one, landed and took off around the same time.

From FlightRadar, Arrivals:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/rov#arrivals

12:20 AM U6147 Moscow (DME) - A320 - Landed 11:53 PM
12:35 AM SU5117 St. Petersburg (LED) - A319 Landed 12:19 AM
12:50 AM UT497 Moscow (VKO) - B735 Landed 12:33 AM
01:20 AM FZ981 Dubai (DXB) - B738 Landed 03:42 AM/Crashed
01:40 AM U62758 Khudzhand (LBD) - A320 Landed 01:28 AM
01:45 AM S71159 Moscow (DME) - A319 Landed 01:23 AM
02:15 AM SU1166 Moscow (SVO) - SU95 Diverted to KRR
03:25 AM OK914 Prague (PRG) - A319 Diverted to KRR
03:55 AM TK293 Istanbul (IST) - A319 Diverted to IST - this one after the crash

Flight Radar, Departures:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/rov#departures

02:20 AM FZ982 Dubai (DXB) - B738 Unknown
03:20 AM U62757 Khudzhand (LBD) - A320 Departed 03:31 AM
03:25 AM SU1167 Moscow (SVO) - SU9 Departed 03:35 AM (this may not be true, the plane was diverted to KRR)

The Ural Airlines pilot who landed and took off (flights U62757/58 above) during the time the Dubai plane was making some crazy loops for two hours (why would he do it?) said the conditions were "normal" for locals, but not for foreign pilots. It seems a bit like a cavalier /bragging attitude, so FWIW. He also said he heard a part of conversation between the Dubai plane pilot and the ACT and everything seemed calm and OK. Link (in Russian): http://lifenews.ru/news/191304

You can see the Russian airline making just two regular loops and diverting to Krasnodar airport:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/su1166#923206c

and compare it with FZ981:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/fz981#922b3bd

2. FWIW
The Dubai plane's (A6-FDN) previous flights were to Kiev and back to Dubai:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-fdn

2016-03-18 Dubai (DXB) Rostov-on-Don (ROV) FZ981 6:05 08:45 PM 09:37 PM 01:20 AM
2016-03-18 Kiev (IEV) Dubai (DXB) FZ744 4:56 04:05 PM 04:17 PM 09:30 PM Landed 09:12 PM
2016-03-18 Dubai (DXB) Kiev (IEV) FZ743 5:25 07:10 AM 07:42 AM 01:05 PM Landed 01:07 PM

3. And just a 'beep on the radar'

A bit less than a year ago, Russia has launched the “quietest submarine in the world.” It was named "Rostov on Don". In December last year, Russia used it to attack ISIS:

_http://www.defensenews.com/story/breaking-news/2015/12/08/submarine-russia-kalibr-caliber-cruise-missile-syria-kilo/76995346/

"We used Kalibr cruise missiles from the Rostov-on-Don submarine from the Mediterranean Sea," Shoigu told President Vladimir Putin, Russian news agencies reported.

The missiles "targeted two major terrorist positions in the territory of Raqqa," Russia Today quoted Shoigu as telling Putin. "We can say with absolute confidence that significant damage has been inflicted upon ammunition warehouses and a mine production plant, as well as the oil infrastructure."

The plane circling for over 2 hours and then falling down like a stone is really hard to explain by bad weather conditions only....

The strange thing is these two hours circling, circling. Maybe something was happening in the airplane? Or maybe something like "mental program" or... We know that sometimes very strange things happens in airplanes. If the pilot was not experienced with bad Russian weather, why did he refused to go to another airport? strange...

 

[angelburst29]

FlyDubai Crashes in Rostov-on-Don as Wind Gusts Reach 50 Miles per Hour (Updated)
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/03/flydubai-crashes-in-rostov-on-don-as.html

At the time of Boeing 737-800 FlyDubai crash, wind gusts reached 22 meters/sec [50 miles/hour] in Rostov-on-Don, with light rain, according to archive weather reports.

At 03.42 Moscow time (the time of the crash) weather conditions were difficult in Rostov-on-Don. There was a strong South-West wind at speeds of 30 miles/hour and gusts up to 43 miles/hour. Maximum wind speed recorded at the time of the accident was 50 miles/hour. There was light rain. The height of the lower border of clouds was 540 m, horizontal visibility - 6 km.

A storm warning was declared in Rostov-on-Don on Friday night. According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, a Boeing 737-800, performing flight FZ 981 from Dubai crashed during the second landing attempt at Rostov-on-Don airport. There were 61 people on board. According to preliminary data, there were no survivors.

Among the victims was Rostov region deputy Igor Pakus and his wife, as well as the wife and daughter of the head of Azov district of Rostov region.

Two flights that were to land in Rostov-on-Don on the night of March 19, diverted to Krasnodar due to poor weather conditions. In addition, one flight returned to the departure airport to Istanbul, as evidenced by Flightradar24.com.

"Aeroflot" flights from Sheremetyevo (SU 1166) and "Czech airlines" from Prague (OK 914) that were supposed to land in Rostov-on-Don at 2:15 and 3:25 Moscow time respectively, diverted to Krasnodar. Turkish airlines flight from Istanbul, which was to land at 3:55 Moscow time, returned to the departure airport.

According to Russia24 the plane circled around the airport for two hours about 10 times waiting for better weather conditions before attempting the second landing. A resulting fuel shortage is considered among the theories.

Although Boeing 737-800 capacity is 189 passengers, FlyDubai was carrying only 55 passengers, because ticket prices of about 20 thousand roubles were high for an average Rostov resident, according to one reporter.

Some Russian aviation analysts speculated that the UAE pilots were not accustomed to local weather conditions.

Relatives of the victims will receive one million roubles compensation, according to the governor of Rostov region.

Traffic load on Rostov airport has increased since the nearby Donetsk airport has been destroyed in Donbass fighting.

(Photo) Russia24: Rostov-on-Don wind map on March 19, 2016


Main Phase of Search Operation at FlyDubai Plane Crash Site in Russia Over (Video)
http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160319/1036596309/search-operation-flydubai.html

The "main phase" of the search operation at the scene of the FlyDubai plane crash near Russia's southern city of Rostov-on-Don has been finished, the Russian emergencies minister said Saturday.

He added that the emergency response groups would assist specialists from the Moscow-based Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC or MAK), as well as from Russia's Investigative Committee in investigation into the crash starting from 24:00 local time, however the search operation is expected to end at 09:00 a.m. on Sunday.

According to Puchkov, all the victims' bodies and their parts have already been collected and sent to the specialists for a forensic analysis.

Investigators earlier found the crashed plane's first and second flight data recorders, and its first voice recorder.

The Investigative Committee presented three versions of the cause of the tragedy: a technical fault, severe weather conditions and human error.

 

[Zasino]

For those who don't understand how a pilot can be so fooled, even if rated for such conditions and very experienced, please remember that what an occupant of an aircraft feels is simply the force of the wings interacting with the flow of air the plane is passing through. It does not matter at all what the attitude of the plane is in relation to the ground below. Even if totally upside down in relation to the Earth, the passengers will still feel as if the plane is straight and level in relation to the Earth, even though it is not. So, there is absolutely no way to tell by what one feels about a plane's attitude and the pilot must totally rely on the instruments to determine the attitude.

It only takes a short time of inattention or distraction before a plane can be totally out of control, and since the plane was still at a very low altitude, there would be insufficient altitude and time to recover level flight again to avoid a crash.

Thanks Richard for explaining it so clearly. It is a weird situation, difficult to understand if you have not lived it personally.
Spatial disorientation can be recovered from if you become aware of it AND there's enough air between you and the ground. In the present case one or both these conditions were apparently missing.

I listened to the audio communication between the pilot and ATC, and got the impression that during this time, the pilot was confident, almost wishfully thinking that weather was going to improve. In fact, several times he asked the tower "is it better now...".

As to why the pilot choose to insist for two hours instead of diverting to an alternate airport in time:
Consider that such a diversion always costs money and time. Especially with low-cost airlines (which operate with low margin) pilots feel the pressure to avoid the hassle and expenses (transportation to the original destination, re-scheduling, fuel consumed), let alone frustrated passengers. The pressure is tangible on pilots to stick to the original plan.

 

[Keit]

A passenger, who was travelling on another plane "Moscow - Rostov-on-Don" shared a thank you note (in Russian) on a social network, where he expressed how ashamed he feels for being so annoyed at the time with pilot's decision to divert the plane to Krasnodar. He shared that they tried three times to land, and each time the plane was shaking like crazy. After third attempt the pilot made a decision to fly to another airport. A decision that saved all their lives, because the next in line to land was the flight from Dubai.

 

[angelburst29]

Just wanted to mention this odd incident that occurred on Friday, not that there is a connection to the plane crash but it occurred on the Rostov-on-the-Don territory.

Ukrainian Citizen Arrested in Rostov Who Was Unable to Find Something to Blow Up
http://www.fort-russ.com/2016/03/ukrainian-citizen-arrested-in-rostov.html

Translated by Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ

18th March, 2016 - An underage Ukrainian was detained on the territory of Rostov-on-don who was planning to commit a terrorist attack using an improvised bomb, according to RIA Novosti.

The citizen of Ukraine tried to find a place to put the explosive device. "He conducted a search for potential sites and studied the anti-terrorist security systems used in the area", said the head of the Russian Interior Ministry General Administration for the Rostov Region's center for combating extremism, Artur Metzger.

The person was arrested under article 205 (Terrorist act) of the criminal code. He was remanded in custody.

According to Metzger, some citizens of Ukraine go to Russia as refugees to arrange provocations.

"Actually, I can say that the different aspirations of the nationalist forces from Ukraine have reduced their activity, because they cannot find any support from the refugees on the territory of Russia, nor among people living on the border. Now they rely on individual provocateurs and propagandists, who, under the guise of refugees, continue to enter the territory and use such excuses as the trial of Savchenko to draw public attention", - said the representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, stressing that only Ukrainians come to the court hearing.


The 55-passenger fatalities included 33 women, 18 men and 4 children
http://novorossia.today/the-55-passenger-fatalities-included-33-women-18-men-and-4-children/

Nationalities of the passengers:

44 Russians
8 from Ukraine
2 from India
1 from Uzbekistan

There are two possible versions of the plane crash in southern Russia: a piloting error due to bad weather conditions or a technical disorder, investigators said Saturday.

The Interstate Aviation Committee has organized an investigation commission, which unites experts in aviation accidents. The commission is working already.

The сommittee said that experts from several countries would join it in the probe into the crash.

“Experts from the United Arab Emirates, where the plane was registered and exploited, from the U.S. – where the plane was designed and made, and from France – where the engines were designed – will join the investigation commission soon,” the Committee said in a statement.

On Saturday morning, at 3:42 Moscow time, FlyDubai’s Boeing 737-800 crashed at the airport in Russia’s southern Rostov-on-Don during the second circle on landing in complicated weather conditions (strong side wind and rain). The plane was serving a flight from Dubai. It was carrying 62 people. The preliminary information is that nobody survived the crash. Russia’s president and prime minister have offered their condolences to the families of the victims.

 

[Keit]

There is the following image in Russian, that proposes a possible explanation to the crash. That it could happen if at the height of 200 meters the plane would encounter a sudden strong wind gust.

 

[luke wilson]

I saw a show recently where a passenger plane lost power to all engines and when it started to drop steeply, the pilot was told not to pull up until the last minute just before the runway... In the show they were going to glide it down to a safe landing and this apparently was the only way to do it on a massive plane without any power. In the show, as it was approaching the runway, it was coming in too fast that I thought it was just going to slam into the ground. The writers probably invented the physics of the whole thing but nonetheless, thought worth mentioning.

 

[Voyageur]

From the preliminary investigation:http://sputniknews.com/russia/20160319/1036567198/fly-dubai-plane-crash-versions-pilot-error-bad-weather-technical-fault.html

Three main versions of the FlyDubai Boeing-737-800 crash have been revealed by the Russian Investigative Committee.

The Russian Investigative Committee is considering three main versions of the FlyDubai plane crash in Rostov-on-Don: technical fault, severe weather conditions or human error, according to the Investigative Committee's chief Vladimir Markin.

"Different versions of the incident are being investigated, including crew error, technical failure, bad weather and other factors," Markin said.

Earlier, Senior Assistant to the Head of the Southern Transport Investigations Oksana Kovrizhnykh said that there were two main versions of the FlyDubai plane crash.

No Survivors After FlyDubai Boeing Crashes in Russia's Rostov-on-Don
"We are considering two main reasons for the crash in Rostov-on-Don at the moment. Piloting error due to worsening weather conditions or technical failure," said Kovrizhnykh.

There were 45 Russian citizens on board, according to the senior assistant.

A passenger FlyDubai Boeing-737-800 en route from Dubai to Russia’s Rostov-on-Don crashed at the city's airport after missing the runway amid poor visibility and bad weather conditions. No one out of the 7 crew members and the 55 passengers survived the crash.

http://<iframe width="640" height="...JM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Voyageur]

Here is the list of (at least 55 passengers): http://ink361.com/app/users/ig-1731070640/alramsnet/photos/ig-1209196320314230263_1731070640

. Larissa Allen 2. Hanna Andreyeva 3. Elvira Belyakova 4. Victor blithely 5. Victoria Bevzyuk 6. Marina Bevzyuk 7. Julia Mute 8. Sergey Mute 9. Galina Bolgova 10. Alexander Bozhko 11. Olga Bozhko 12. Alina Berezina 13. Konstantin Chebotarev 14. Svetlana Chebotarev 15. Dmitry Chernov 16. Elena Chernova 17. Kirill Chistyakov 18. Oleg Chistyakov 19. Victoria Chistyakov 20. Vladimir Fedyanin 21. Valery Gamow 22. Lyudmila Goncharova 23. Elena Kaliberda 24. Sergey Kaliberda 25. Olesya Karavantseva 26. Irina Karpenko 27. Katirveli Ayapan 28. Olga Klimenko 29. Paul Koposov 30. Anastasia Koposova 31. Koposova Daria 32. Koposova Lyudmila 33. Raisa Loboda 34. Olga Mayachenko 35. Siam Mohan 36. Inna Negodaeva 37. Anna Osipova 38. Galina Pakus 39. Igor Pakus 40. Alex Shangqing 41. Irina Shangqing 42. Nikolai Shlipchenko 43. Valentine Somin 44. Mann Serhieva 45. Natalia Tarasenko 46. Svitlana Tsehelska 47. Danilo Tsihelski 48. Pavlo Tsihelski 49. Natalia Veremeevskaya 50. Alexander Veremeyvsky 51. Vitaly Veremeevsky 52. Valentin Voronov 53. Larisa Zheved 54. Tatyana Kravchenko 55. Nikolay Karpenko

Very sad for the families and a terrifying end for those on board.

 

[Mikey]

Just a simple observation from the CCTV footage (if that footage is actually showing the plane in question): The plane obviously was in free fall and burning. What kind of pilot errors would lead to a burning plane? Can't think of any.