I also don't think it will escalate too much given Putin's past restraint, but the Russians do tend to carry out retaliatory attacks. Zelensky doesn't have to be the target; that's not necessary. The targets could be high-ranking officers involved in planning these attacks, which also includes foreign personnel linked to intelligence services and generals.
Bingo. Z has just offered one for crosshairs on a silver plate (source:
Vzglyad, in Russian):
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly named SBU Brigadier General Denys Kilimnik as the organiser of the most significant strikes against Russia for the first time.
‘He is one of those who organise the most significant and completely justified strikes,’ Zelensky said. The president recalled that in the summer of 2023, he awarded Kilimnik the title of Hero of Ukraine. [...]
By the way, Leonid Ragozin made an interesting
tweet. Ragozin is a Russian journalist, one of the liberal sort, and he moved to Latvia shortly after the SVO started. Earlier, he worked from Russia for BBC, Guardian and some other Western media. Not a fan of the current Russian leadership. On January 1, he posted:
LR said:
An unnamed CIA official confirms to the WSJ that the Ukrainian drone attack on Novgorod region indeed happened despite earlier attempts at denial, however the target was not Putin’s residence, but a military facility elsewhere in the region.
Everyone knows that CIA, just like any other intel agency and gov administration, has a special department of anonymous officials. That one just quoted must have been from there, too.
LR said:
This is consistent with Arestovych’s earlier claim that the target was a command centre of the Russian nuclear forces. WSJ’s source didn’t name the facility - which makes one wonder why. A fuel depot or an airfield would have surely been named.
Not necessarily fully consistent but going in the same direction. There may be several scenarios.
- It could have been a planted false leak for Arestovich to disseminate it and then WSJ to confirm it, if only partly - but why? Who would benefit from it? Perhaps those who don't like the US-RF negotiations. Who else?
- It could have been true but AA added the 'nuclear" detail to make it sound more serious; but if it wasn't a strategic facility, who would sent there almost a hundred long-range, expensive drones? Just to provoke speculations?
- It's also possible that AA got it from elsewhere, or made it up entirely, and someone(s) is interested in backing him up for their own reasons
- As for not naming the target, another set of similar possible options can be considered.
More questions than answer but interesting nevertheless.
LR cont. said:
Not sure an attack on a nuclear command facility rather than presidential residence makes the situation any less dangerous, in fact more - this a step beyond the framework of a regional conflict and towards a global war, especially since Moscow believes that Ukrainian strikes rely on Western intelligence and get coordinated with the Western military, specifically British.
Major Western governments have so far avoided rejecting Russian claims about an attack on Putin’s residence as a fake, despite online infowar content factories trying hard to make this point.
A statement by an anonymous CIA staffer has only so much value, especially in the light of the internal confrontation between the pro-Ukraine and anti-interventionist camps in the US NatSec community.
Besides, anonymous intelligence sources have been routinely laundering disinfo by feeding it to legacy media all through this conflict, devaluing any stories based exclusively on them.
Sure, except that WSJ, first to make it available for eng-speaking mainstream public, had done it two days after Arestovich's revelation. Who was the "taxi driver" and why AA was first?
LR cont. said:
But Russia’s threat to change its negotiating position following the attack reads in a very different light, if the target was indeed a secret nuclear command centre.
Either would result in the same decision, but the way Putin addressed the nation on NYE was close to a confirmation IMHO.