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10 predictions for 2023 from the Council on Foreign Relations (USA). Curious...
07:21 10.01.2023
10 predictions for 2023 from the Council on Foreign Relations (USA). An interesting forecast was noted in early January by the long-term president of this Rockefeller organization, Richard Haass:
1. In Ukraine ("dominant problem-2022"),
neither military nor diplomatic confrontation will lead to the complete victory of one of the parties. You should not expect anyone's defeat, or even a peace agreement.
2. China will delay its "invasion" of Taiwan "for at least a few years" due to the resurgence of COVID-19 and the slowdown in the economy.
3. Japan, having become a major geopolitical player, will finally enter the "post-post-war era" - even more so than Germany.
4. North Korea will conduct the 7th nuclear test: neither the United States nor South Korea will be able to prevent it, and China will not want to.
5. US-Europe relations will deteriorate because of European dissatisfaction - not only with the costs of the war in Ukraine, but also with Washington's protectionism, and also because of their unwillingness to break with China.
6. The global economy will grow more slowly than expected. The main reasons: the recession in China and the high rate of the US Federal Reserve.
7. The UN climate conference COP-28 will be a failure: the world is not up to the fight against global warming.
8. Israeli-Palestinian relations will only get worse due to the expansion of Jewish settlements.
9. India will "disappoint those who promise her great things": she will continue to buy arms and oil from the Russians and will not join the West, becoming "more illiberal and less secular."
10. The dominant problem in 2023 is instead of Ukraine! - will be Iran. He, too, will not break with the Russian Federation and will not agree to a nuclear deal. Instead, he will focus on his nuclear program and tightening the screws - at the risk of civil war.
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