Session 1 November 2025

[SasaM]

To me his name was difficult to write at first. As I am French, writing it as it sounds worked (found out that his real name was Michael)

If you like his work you must check about Richard B. Firestone, he has been studying along the same lines!

Those are two different persons:
Mike Baillie was into dendrochronology, while M. E. Bailey, probably an astrophysicist or/and an astronomer, worked with Clube and Napier.
Check CatHoM for more details, for example.

Mike Baillie - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The origin of comets : Bailey, M. E : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

xxiii, 577 p., [1] leaf of plates : 24 cm

archive.org

FWIW.

 

[Windmill knight]

Regarding this fragment:

Q: (L) And from what I have here on my little paper, is that the Little Ice Age lasted from 1450 to 1850, and the Maunder minimum was kind of like a period of particular intensity in the middle of that from 1645 to 1715. So, would it be safe to say that the period of the Maunder minimum within the Little Ice Age was the period when this companion star was closest to earth - or closest to our sun or perihelion?

A: Yes

Q: (L) And since the Little Ice Age lasted from 1450 to 1850, that was the period of its generalized influence?

A: Yes

Q: (L) So that suggests that it takes like 400 years for something like that to pass through the Oort cloud?

A: Yes

Q: (Joe) And how long does it take to come back?

A: No dice.

Q: (Joe) Would it be 180 years?

A: No. You will certainly soon be experiencing the effects of this last passage for some time to come.

Q: (Joe) So the last passage that ended in 1850?

(L) It ended more like 1715. Yeah. It takes... Do you know how far away those things are and how many years it takes?

(Joe) But the effects were occurring. The effects were the Little Ice Age, and…

(L) That was just the grounding of the current that caused the drop in sunspots.

(Joe) The perihelion was during the Maunder Minimum.

(L) The sun’s drop in sunspots. The perihelion was during the Maunder Minimum, the closest approach. So it's already the bowling ball that hit the pins.

(Gaby) It has an orbit of millions of years.

(Joe) Exactly. So it's a longer term series of impacts that…

The twin sun already passed perihelion, the closest point to the Sun. Joe asked if it might come back in 180 years and the Cs replied 'No dice' - yet we know that the total orbit is thousands or perhaps millions of years. Which makes me wonder what Joe had in mind or why the Cs replied that way, given that thousands or millions of years won't make any difference to us on this lifetime. So I was wondering if the orbit of the twin sun could have such a configuration as to have 2 perihelions - one on its way in and one on its way out. Let me explain:

Picture a very eccentric (flattened) elliptic orbit. The sun is surrounded by a large sphere of cometary bodies (the Oort cloud, which is located further away than Pluto). The sun is placed on one of the focal points of the ellipse (towards one end of the ellipse). As the twin sun approaches on its way in, it brushes one side of the Oort cloud (lets call it the 'Northern side'), then carries on a little further, then comes back for another brush on the other side of the cloud (the 'Southern side'). That way, we could have a scenario in which there are 2 perihelions, not that far from each other, and the time between those two passes would not be thousands or millions of years, but perhaps hundreds.

Watch this video to see what I mean. Just imagine the Oort cloud around the sun and replace the planet doing the orbit for the twin star:

So here's the question for those of you versed in math, physics and astronomy. Is that scenario possible according to orbital laws? That an orbit has a certain eccentricity that allows for the orbiting body to be closest to the Sun on two spots ('North' and 'South') rather than on the far end of the ellipse? If you look at the video on second 37 it appears that is indeed possible. Is that right? If so, the twin star may yet come close to us again instead of just wandering away for thousands or millions of years.

 

[Gaby]

The twin sun already passed perihelion, the closest point to the Sun. Joe asked if it might come back in 180 years and the Cs replied 'No dice' - yet we know that the total orbit is thousands or perhaps millions of years. Which makes me wonder what Joe had in mind or why the Cs replied that way, given that thousands or millions of years won't make any difference to us on this lifetime.

The Cs reply is in accordance to their historical refusal to give an exact number for sol's companion orbit in terms of precise years. The ballpark is millions of years, 27 million years being close enough for horseshoes, but not necessarily the precise figure. Again, they would say "close". Joe might have just given a random figure with the idea that perihelion was still to come. The session clarifies that perihelion is past us, it was during the Maunder Minimum of the 17th- early 18th Century.

As you can see from the last weeks, the sun is definitely not looking very grounded by sol's companion. If anything, it's discharging more than expected for this solar cycle. Comets are playing a role in this.

The video doesn't really portray sol's companion orbit, as its closest approach is in the outer regions of Pluto, not nowhere near the sun.

 

[Gaby]

Is this cometary cluster like a perfect belt, forming a periphery to the sun?

Here's Pierre illustration of a 3,600-year Solar orbit:

More info here: Volcanoes, Earthquakes And The 3,600 Year Comet Cycle

There are many depictions on the internet that might be more appropriate, but here's the Leonids orbit, with obviously much smaller. They'll be showing in the sky soon:

 

[SasaM]

Joe asked if it might come back in 180 years and the Cs replied 'No dice' - yet we know that the total orbit is thousands or perhaps millions of years. Which makes me wonder what Joe had in mind or why the Cs replied that way, given that thousands or millions of years won't make any difference to us on this lifetime.

The C's replied "No" to that question, but said "No dice." to "Q: (Joe) And how long does it take to come back?".

So here's the question for those of you versed in math, physics and astronomy. Is that scenario possible according to orbital laws? That an orbit has a certain eccentricity that allows for the orbiting body to be closest to the Sun on two spots ('North' and 'South') rather than on the far end of the ellipse? If you look at the video on second 37 it appears that is indeed possible. Is that right? If so, the twin star may yet come close to us again instead of just wandering away for thousands or millions of years.

No, perihelion is a single distinct position at certain time in the trajectory of orbiting body. Check the comets for example, like recent 3I/ATLAS, they have one perihelion position, but can be relatively close to Sun before and after.

The companion star could be for some time in the 'vicinity' of the Sun though, just like comets can, i.e. passing through the Oort cloud for certain number of years as it presumably did, before, after and exactly during the Maunder minimum when it was roughly at the perihelion, but its perihelion for this round of passage or orbit would be only that one, AFAIK.

Binary star - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[axj]

So here's the question for those of you versed in math, physics and astronomy. Is that scenario possible according to orbital laws? That an orbit has a certain eccentricity that allows for the orbiting body to be closest to the Sun on two spots ('North' and 'South') rather than on the far end of the ellipse?

For quick answers to questions like this, Deepseek is a good choice. It also says that it is impossible to have more than one perihelion, unless it is an orbit around two stars of similar size or something like that (then it becomes kind of an unpredictable orbit, "the three body problem").

The companion star could be for some time in the 'vicinity' of the Sun though, just like comets can, i.e. passing through the Oort cloud for certain number of years as it presumably did, before, after and exactly during the Maunder minimum when it was roughly at the perihelion

The Oort Cloud is not close to the brown dwarfs's perihelion, it is sort of mid-orbit and was passed by the brown dwarf thousands or even millions of years ago. The C's said in another session that the brown dwarf's orbit is 28 million years and that it goes out to 3.4 light years away. The Oort Cloud extends from around 0.03 ly (2000 AU) to around 1.5 ly (100,000 AU).

There is one unrelated problem and that is that the pretty exact orbital parameters the C's gave over the years are impossible (according to solid calculations by Deepseek) - unless the solar system has about 50% more mass.

But apparently even the whole Oort Cloud or the still undiscovered three larger planets weigh much, much less than that. Jupiter weighs 3% of the brown dwarf, which in turn has a mass of 3.4% of the Sun. Nothing comes even close to the mass of the Sun and its companion in the solar system.