Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM

Severe G4 geomagnetic storm (Kp8)
Threshold Reached: 16:28 UTC

The expected #solarstorm has arrived earlier than predicted. At 800 km/sec it is the fastest moving storm I've seen since Solar Cycle 23. The initial impact hit hard enough to bring us up to G4-levels. However, the field has flipped northward so #aurora may dim momentarily. Stay tuned! Dr. Tamitha Skov
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Wow :-O Personally, I do not recall having reported these values for the solar wind and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field.(IMF)

Both the DSCOVR and ACE spacecrafts solar wind data is showing a shock passage just after 14:00 UTC (Mar 24).
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Note that at 16:11 UTC the Total Interplanetary Magnetic Field registered 30.43 nT at this time (18:28 UTC) the value is 11.4 nT while the solar wind is at 851 km/s!
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Let's wait and see what impact this has on the earth's climate, volcanic and seismic activity in the coming hours.

 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 25_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2.2 event observed at 06:06 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W14) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean​
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Other M-class flares generated by the same region:

● M1.3 at 07:51 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean

● M1.1 at 12:18 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
● M1 at 12:34 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
M1.2 at 13:14 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
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Flares, CMEs and now Magnetic Filament

The total number of sunspots has decreased to 145 of which 75 of them are grouped into 7 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3621 and new region AR3622
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NOAA has updated its forecast for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 85% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 54 cores covering an area of 810 MH.​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels (kp6) for the past 24 hours. On March 24 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 887 km/s (High speed) at 20:35 UTC Total IMF reached 33 nT at 1607 UTC

Aurora Oval Bz: 18.86 nT North
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Might this be a #solarstorm fizzle? Although this storm will continue for hours yet, whether it will contain southward magnetic field is the key for big #aurora shows. At Solar Orbiter (see the figure below), the storm has a weak "South-East-North" configuration, meaning the axis of its magnetic "solar slinky" core points mainly east with a slight tilt to the north. At Earth, early indications show this core may be oriented in a more "East-North-West" direction. If so, this does not bode well for generating aurora. With Solar Orbiter separated from Earth by 11° in longitude, it is quite possible to have a slightly "bent" ICME orientation as shown. I've seen the magnetic core of ICMEs rotate over 90° between spacecraft separated by that magnitude. STEREO-A may not give us much more insight because its longitudinal separation is over 9° from Earth. The best we can do is keep our fingers crossed that the storm still has some southward field, but sadly, it is not looking good. Dr. Tamitha Skov
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● Current Conditions at 04:35 UTC on March 25

The geomagnetic storm has weakened a little because the solar wind magnetic field turned northward. But the main body of the CME, aka, the flux rope, seems to have arrived as seen in low proton temperature. We should monitor how the magnetic field turns in the flux rope. Halo CME vía X
Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 4 (active) The geomagnetic storm has subsided and the solar wind, with a high speed of more than 700 km/s, is turning northward, which does not offer the best conditions for aurora sightings at high latitudes. AR3615 is taking a break after the great activity recorded on March 23 and 24. Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares in the next 24 hours. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm levels on March 25​

▪︎ Geospace active (Kp 4)
▪Solar wind speed record: 749 km/sec (high speed)
▪︎ density: 20 p/cm³ (moderate density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 19 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C5 0104 UT Mar25
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-3.5% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 145 (SN 146 Mar 24)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from a southern coronal hole.

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 26_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4.4 event observed at 0644 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W27) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean​
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The total number of sunspots has increased to 163 of which 83 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3621, AR3622 & new region AR3623
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NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 85% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 63 cores covering an area of 1120 MH.​
THE DANGER HAS NOT PASSED: Yesterday's severe geomagnetic storm is over, but the calm might not last. Giant shape-shifting sunspot AR3615 poses a continued threat for Earth-directed solar flares. NOAA forecasters say there is a 25% chance of X-flares today, tomorrow, and Wednesday. If the sunspot blows, it would give sky watchers in Europe and the USA a second chance at auroras this week. SpaceWeather.com​

● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels (kp5) for the past 24 hours. On March 25 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 909 km/s (Very High speed) at 20:35 UTC Total IMF reached 30 nT at 21:08 UTC

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM--THE STRONGEST IN YEARS:
As predicted, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on March 24th (1437 UT). The impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere and sparked a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm--the strongest geomagnetic storm since Sept. 2017.​
The timing of the CME did *not* favor observers in Europe or the United States. Instead, New Zealand got the light show:​
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SpaceWeather.com

Aurora Oval Bz: -1.78 nT South
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● Current Conditions at 04:32 UTC on March 26

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unstable) The geomagnetic storm has subsided but early this morning (05:23 UTC) we had a disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere with a brief period of minor geomagnetic storm G1 (Kp5) The solar wind is now at a moderately high speed of over 500km/s pointing south which offers conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes.

At 00:36 UTC AR3615 produced a M1.8 flare that generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean
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On march 26 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.​

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 567 km/sec (Moderately high speed)
▪︎ density: 0.45 p/cm³ (low density)
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 5.29 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0036 UT Mar26
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-7.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 163 (SN 145 Mar 25)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 27_2024

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.9 event observed at 1330 UTC from Region 3615 (S13W41) the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
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Other M flares from AR3615

● M1 at 10:17 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa

● M1.3 at 10:43 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Africa
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● M1.6 at 13:46 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Mid Atlantic Ocean
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● M1.6 at 21:58 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Pacific Ocean
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The total number of sunspots has decreased to 149 of which 69 of them are grouped into 8 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3621, AR3622 & new region AR3623
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NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 53 cores covering an area of 1140 MH.
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● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On March 26 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 852 km/s (High speed) at 0503 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08:20 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.64 nT North
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● Current Conditions at 04:27 UTC on March 27

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 3 (unsettled) The solar wind is now at a moderately high speed of over 492 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. AR3615 has produced a M1.1 at 0144 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Western Pacific Ocean
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On march 27 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

▪︎ Geospace unsettled (Kp 3)
▪Solar wind speed record: 492 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0 p/cm³
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : M1 0144 UT Mar27
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-7.9% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 149 (SN 163 Mar 26)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun

A SHARP REDUCTION IN COSMIC RAYS: Astronauts on the International Space Station got a break from their daily dose of cosmic rays on March 24th when radiation levels suddenly dropped more than 14%. What happened? A coronal mass ejection (CME) swept the radiation aside:​
This is called a "Forbush decrease," named after American physicist Scott Forbush who studied cosmic rays in the early 20th century. It happens when a CME sweeps past Earth and pushes galactic cosmic rays away from our planet. Radiation from deep space that would normally pepper space stations, satellites, and Earth’s upper atmosphere is briefly wiped out.​
In the graph, above, the Forbush decrease is shown as a downward spike in neutron counts recorded at the Sodankyla Geophysical Observatory in Oulu, Finland. Neutrons are a well-known proxy for cosmic rays. When cosmic rays strike Earth's upper atmosphere, they produce a spray of neutrons that reach the ground below. Sensors in Oulu count these "secondary cosmic rays" to monitor activity in space.​
This week's Forbush decrease is the biggest of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), exceeding the previous record-holder on Nov. 3-4, 2021 when a potent Cannibal CME dropped neutron counts by 11%. SpaceWeather.com​

.......
SpaceWeatherlive.com
SpaceWeather.com
 
SOLAR CYCLE 25 ACTIVITY REPORT MARCH 28_2024

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1.1 event observed at 06:41 UTC the flare generated a Minor R1 radio blackout over Indian Ocean
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The total number of sunspots has decreased to 114 of which 53 of them are grouped into 6 active regions as follows: AR3614, AR3615 AR3617, AR3619, AR3620, AR3622
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AR3621 & AR3623 are gone

NOAA forecast remains for the next 24 hours: 99% chance of C flares, 75% chance of M flares and 25% chance of X flares.

AR3615 is decaying but continues with an unstable magnetic field beta-gamma-delta. Today this active region consists of 41 cores covering an area of 960 MH

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● Auroral Activity

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels (kp3) for the past 24 hours. On March 27 Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s (Moderately High speed) at 09:57 UTC Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08:14 UTC​

Aurora Oval Bz: 0.81 nT North
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● Current Conditions at 04:41 UTC on March 28

Geomagnetic activity is at index Kp 2 (quiet) The solar wind is now at a moderately high speed of over 449 km/s pointing north which offers low conditions for aurora sightings at latitudes. AR3615 gave us a demonstration of what an active region looks like and for the moment seems to be taking a breather. This region produced 36 M-class flares and 88 C-class flares. These were the top 10 flares of AR3615
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On march 27 Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels.

▪︎ Geospace quiet (Kp 2)
▪Solar wind speed record: 449 km/sec (Elevated speed)
▪︎ density: 0.02 p/cm³
▪︎ Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bt: 3 nT
▪︎ X-ray Solar Flare : C7 0427 UT Mar28
▪︎ Thermosphere Climate Index
today: Warm
▪︎ Neutron Counts today:-5.6% (Low)
▪︎ Sunspot number: 114 (SN 149 Mar 27)
▪︎ Spotless Days 2023 total: 0 days (0%)
▪︎ There are no significant equatorial coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun
.....
SpaceWeatherlive.com
 
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Looks like AR3615 fullfilled its "duty" with another M7.0 flare :

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