Just a little hint
A long duration X-Flare (X1.21) was observed around AR 4274 peaking at 09:18 UTC (Nov 10). In fact the solar X-Rays were at the X-Class threshold for over a half an hour. A type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 1321 km/s was recorded. Coronal dimming is evident with this latest event meaning a CME will be produced. A further update will be provided regarding a possible Earth directed component.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 10 0911 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1321 km/s
SolarHam.com
From the Russian institute telegram's channel:Another X-Flare!
The mass ejection from the new flare will catch up with and absorb the plasma cloud ejected yesterday
The speed of the new plasma ejection, measured near the Sun, appears to be at least 1200 km/s, which is almost twice the speed of yesterday's event at 720 km/s. This means that the gas cloud ejected today will catch up with the plasma ejection from yesterday's X1.79 flare currently spreading through space and they will arrive at Earth together — preliminarily, still at the junction of November 11 and 12, that is, possibly tomorrow evening.
The presence of a frontal plasma ejection has been confirmed visually at this time. Due to its high speed, the gas cloud has moved more than 10 million km away from the Sun in 3 hours and is clearly visible in images from coronagraphs observing the near-solar space. However, there was no doubt about the presence of an ejection toward Earth, and the main interest was precisely its speed, which has now been measured.
At the moment, strictly speaking, despite the very strong flares in recent days, there have been no extreme consequences for Earth so far. Very strong (record-breaking for the year) magnetic storms were expected on November 7, but then the solar hits only grazed Earth. The magnetic storms of G2-G3 level that actually occurred then can be considered a stroke of luck. Yesterday's ejection was also unimpressive, ultimately slow, and moreover, noticeably moved upward above the plane of the planets. In this sense, Earth now has to test its luck for the third time in a row over the next two to three days. Perhaps it will succeed. However, we still need to see what the mathematical models will say in a few hours.
BANG! The 6th strongest solar flare of the current solar cycle in terms of peak X-Ray flux was just detected around AR 4274 peaking at 10:04 UTC (Nov 11). The event reached X5.1 with a wide area of coronal dimming already evident meaning an energetic Earth directed CME will likely result from this. Stay tuned for the latest updates.
UPDATE: Energetic proton levels are on the rise and a bright CME is now emerging. Although X5.1 ranks 6th on the brightness scale, this event could be the most energetic of the current cycle.
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2025 Nov 11 1001 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 1350 km/s
SolarHam.com
The incoming CME will likely prolong an already expected geomagnetic storm and could push it to the Severe (G4) threshold in the days ahead. A further update will be provided once a tracking model and forecast is released. SolarHam.com
All the morning arguments about the arrival of two emissions from level X flares to the Earth, which seemed so significant and important, have lost their relevance. All the plasma clouds that are currently flying towards the planet will catch up and absorb the emission from today's flare. The impact on Earth is expected tomorrow, and according to the model, it will be the strongest in the current 25th solar cycle.
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The graph shows the early geomagnetic forecast (soft branch). The main one is still being calculated. It doesn't make any deep sense to anyone, and it's almost certain that when the actual schedule is applied to this forecast tomorrow, there will be nothing in common between them.
Honestly, no model in the world knows how to calculate such events. We do not know by what criteria NOAA, which makes such final decisions, chose this particular branch from the tree of options. Most likely, they just tossed a coin.