Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

Bringing these updates to highlight the decision of NOAA to change reading instruments at the last minute, opting for ones that are less reliable, and how unusual this storm is turning out to be.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS)

На Земле происходит магнитная буря уровня G4.7 Очень сильная магнитная буря планетарного масштаба, почти достигшая высшего уровня G5, регистрируется в данный момент средствами контроля геомагнитной обстановки в связи с приходом к Земле первого из трех плазменных облаков, ожидающихся в течение...

t.me

Unfortunately, spacecraft operating near the Earth and measuring the parameters of the solar wind have been transmitting strongly distorted values for the last few hours (Солнечный ветер 12 ноября 2025 года ). For an unknown reason, NOAA has replaced the main device for measuring ACE solar wind parameters with a backup DSCOVR, which is very unstable and currently producing many failures. From the incoming "broken" data, one can only understand that exceptionally high plasma density and temperature are recorded in the vicinity of the Earth, exceeding the usual ten times, as well as very high values of magnetic field induction, which are at the level of historical peaks.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS)

Продолжает регистрироваться очень интенсивное воздействие солнечных заряженных частиц на космические аппараты. По данным околоземного спутника GOES-R плотность протонов с энергиями более 10 МэВ повышена в настоящий момент примерно в 10 тысяч раз. Потоки частиц с энергиями 100 МэВ увеличены...

t.me

According to the GOES-R near-Earth satellite, the density of protons with energies greater than 10 MeV is currently increased by about 10,000 times. Particle fluxes with energies of 100 MeV are increased by about 200-300 times. Located at a great distance from Earth, outside the protective effect of the magnetosphere, the SOHO spacecraft does not actually provide data on the Sun at the moment, since the telescope detectors are completely covered with traces of energetic particles hitting them (in the picture), which can only be seen with great difficulty. As noted earlier, NOAA, for unknown reasons, stopped transmitting data from the ACE spacecraft located at the same location a few hours ago and designed to directly measure the parameters of the solar wind. At the same time, there were also no failures or failures of the device. Currently, the measurements, although in a very distorted form (Солнечный ветер актуальные данные ), come from the DSCOVR backup device.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS)

Довольно наглядная визуализация взрывного начала сегодняшней бури от американского агентства NOAA, Цветовая шкала показывает амплитуду геомагнитных колебаний в разных регионах земного шара. Хочется верить, что Вы читаете это не с одной из антарктических станций, хотя северная часть России выше...

t.me

Information is being received from orbit about the parameters of the interplanetary magnetic field close to historical records against the background of very low solar wind speeds. In general, this combination of parameters looks so unusual that there are even doubts about its reliability. The current magnetic storm is developing unevenly. Moderately perturbed periods alternate with impulsive bursts. The forecast of the development of a magnetic storm formed the day before by world centers has already been completely refuted from the very beginning of the event, and now the situation is being monitored simply by the fact. The G5 level has not yet been reached, but with the observed values of the interplanetary magnetic field of about 50 Nt, the Earth's magnetosphere can reach it now at any moment.

 

[Puma]

Solar wind Speed is normal, 419 km/sec but IMF is now 45nT

11:48 UTC Nov 12, 2025

We continue with a severe G4 geomagnetic storm with a Kp 8. The solar wind speed has increased to 512 km/sec.

Auroras were reported in Zacatecas Mexico​

Un minuto de ciencia

​

 

[mkrnhr]

According to the spaceweather website, Spaceweather.com Time Machine

Yesterday's X5-class solar flare from sunspot 4274 hurled a fusillade of energetic protons toward Earth. Some of the particles are so powerful, they are penetrating the atmosphere all the way to the ground. "This is a very significant event," says Professor Clive Dyer of the Surrey Space Centre. "Neutron monitors around the world are detecting it."

This is called a Ground Level Event (GLE). GLEs of this magnitude are rare; they happen only once or twice every solar cycle. "This one is comparable to the GLE of Dec. 13, 2006," says Dyer. That makes it a ~20-year event.

Space-based cameras are being disturbed by the flux of protons:

https://spaceweather.com/images2025/11nov25/snow.gif

 

[dredger]

To add to the information, this short animation is well explicit :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1988414973857747071

 

[Puma]

23:00 UTC , NOV 12, 2025

The bright halo CME associated with the X5.1 solar flare swept past Earth at 19:17 UTC (Nov 12). A geomagnetic sudden impulse measuring 33 nT was detected. The solar wind speed was not available at the time of the impact due to the ongoing radiation storm, however a new update initially puts it between 700-950 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is currently pointing south around -15 nT. More updates to follow. A severe geomagnetic storm warning is now in effect. SolarHam.com

THE THIRD CME HAS ARRIVED (UPDATED): The highly-anticipated 3rd CME has arrived. It struck Earth's magnetic field at approximately 1917 UTC on Nov. 12th. Our first impression of the impact: It was not strong enough to cause a repeat of last night's extreme aurora display. We are downgrading our storm forecast from category G4 (severe) to G2/G3 (moderate/strong). SpaceWeather.com

● Current conditions

Solar wind Speed: 893.19 km/sec
Density: 1.06 p/cm3
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bt: 22.73 nT
Bz: 10.22 nT North
Planetary K-index: Kp6 (G2 moderate storm)

 

[Ellipse]

We clearly got into the red and we are into the yellow. Let see how it evolve for the next round.

 

[Niall]

"Aurores," as the French called them, seen from northeastern France last night:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1988477849448194461

 

[Ellipse]

The second round had gone into the yellow but look like it settle now.

According to SpaceWeatherNews, there was no disturbances as strong as the first round as the angle of the impact was different.

[...] the bigger impact we had last night which took plasma speed to 1000 km/s had northern magnetism so it did not produce
major solar storms even though it was in fact significantly stronger. This is a critically important point, the magnetic angle, north vs south, the magnetic pull flip within the solar wind electric field. You can see here why it matters for solar storm levels as much or more than the density and speed of the shock wave.

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

And one more large X4 flare by AR4274 this morning, which is now departing to the west limb while geomagnetic conditions are back to low level.

 

[Gaby]

And one more large X4 flare by AR4274 this morning, which is now departing to the west limb while geomagnetic conditions are back to low level.

A few highlights to show how peculiar is the sun's activity as of late.

xras.ru Well, that's impossible. Online chart — link (https://xras.ru/image/xray_RAL5_20251114.png ).The area is the same — 4274. Everything is falling. The final score is X4.05 Area 4274 is now the author of the two largest outbreaks of the year: X5.15 on November 11 and X4.05 today.

xras

The epicenter of the event was again area 4274, located in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, which only 2 days ago produced an outbreak of X5.15 — the strongest event of the year responsible for the magnetic storm on November 12-13 (the second strongest in 5 years). The amount of energy in this area of the Sun already looks completely inexplicable. The active center has a relatively modest size, which does not correspond well to the power and number of explosions produced here. Powerful flares in the center began 2-3 weeks ago, when it was on the far side of the Sun and, apparently, became one of the reasons for the change in the movement of the 3I/ATLAS object, which was hit by direct impacts of ejected plasma clouds.

In short, plasma discharge comet theory.

After that, the explosive activity in the center, in fact, did not stop. Following several very strong explosions on the far side of the Sun, the region, having reached the Earth, produced 5 flashes of the highest X level sequentially (the first since June 2025), and has now produced the sixth. The explosions, contrary to expectations, are not subsiding, but are increasing. The last two events, including today's, were the first and second most powerful outbreaks of the year.

xras

They asked if there were any planets in the way. Yes, Jupiter is exactly in the path of the cloud. By the way, there may well be auroras on it in a few days. They are actually observed there from time to time.

This is why I like these updates. Russians are overall less hysterized, so you can expect more genuine reports, bafflement and all.

 

[Gaby]

This is why I like these updates. Russians are overall less hysterized, so you can expect more genuine reports, bafflement and all.

More fascinating observations, including how NASA and NOAA are just scrambling.

XRAS

Discussions have resumed about the possible consequences for Earth after yesterday's second-strongest outbreak of the year. The incoming full set of data from space coronographs has renewed discussions about the possibility of yesterday's plasma ejection hitting the Earth after the second most powerful flare of the year X4.0 (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ). The reason was, on the one hand, the temporal profile of the flash, which seemed to show the overlap of two events (https://xras.ru/image/xray_RAL5_20251114.png ), as well as the already mentioned coronagraph data attached to the message, in which, in addition to the dense ejection flying sideways, it is possible to distinguish the second, less contrasting, but much faster, a cloud of gas flying at the observer. The recalculation, taking into account these circumstances, gives a significantly less optimistic picture than the one that was announced yesterday (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ): the model shows the possibility of the arrival of the identified second velocity component to the Earth as early as tonight (https://xras.ru/info/images/20251115_enlil.v.ru.mp4 ).

Against this background (the presence of several conflicting calculation branches), there are currently strong disagreements between the world's space weather centers about the choice of the final branch. The world's leading NOAA agency has already changed its forecast 3 times in the last few hours. NASA forecasters, in fact, refused to make a choice and simply indicate the range from Kp=4 (minor disturbances) to Kp=8 (very strong storms) as a possible range of the Kp index, which, as it is easy to understand, means that there is no forecast. Uncertainty is also added by the previous behavior of area 4274, which has already shown illogical behavior twice: first on November 7, when two ejections visually flying from here directly to
Earth eventually went sideways and touched the planet only by the edge, and on November 12-13, when the magnetic storm, although it became the second strongest in 5 years (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) ), but it followed a scenario completely different from the forecast one. At the moment, we can only note the existence of diametrically opposed views on the consequences of the outbreak. Both forecasts — yesterday's neutral and the new one with a bump on the Ground - are presented on the channel. At the moment, the calculations are still dominated by the probability of a weak event, which, however, given the previous trends of 4274 in choosing the least likely branches of the forecast, is more alarming than encouraging.

They'll do better by tossing a coin!

 

[Andrian]

More fascinating observations, including how NASA and NOAA are just scrambling.





They'll do better by tossing a coin!

View attachment 113548

Thank you all for sharing. I'm sorry for the noise, just wanted to say that I've definitely felt the effects of the CME's the whole week, from strange and unusual heart palpitations to sudden intrusive thoughts, migraines, waking up multiple times during the night.

I knew right away that the above symptoms are related to the Sun's activity. I'd say that almost every time i'm experiencing something strange, i sense that it's due to the Sun's activity. In those occasions just by curiosity i'll check how's the Sun's weather and boom there was a CME explosion.

Sorry for the noise once again. It's just amazing how much we're affected by external bodies and different types of energies incoming from our Sun, comets, other planets etc.