Sol (Sun) and its phenomena

[Gaby]

Hi All! Join me today at 6:30pm PDT (01:30 UTC April 1) for a Live Forecast update as I go over the details of the current conditions and what it means for the incoming solar storm events as well as for the Artemis 2 launch. This is a public stream, but rest assured, you get priority in getting your questions answered first.

All the drama for nothing. It didn't arrive.

The forecast is at the top. Below is reality. In general, on the way to Earth, a plasma cloud measuring several tens of millions of kilometers was lost somewhere. As it was said in the movie "The Diamond Hand", we will look for it.

Laboratory of Solar Astronomy (xras.ru ) (Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (XRAS) )

Forecasted:

Below is reality:

 

[Olivierlejardinier]

There's a G1 geomagnetic storm.

Attributed to earth facing coronal hole:

Space weather on April 2, 2026 - disturbed

Over the past 24 hours:
Geomagnetic conditions - magnetic field disturbances observed
Flare activity - increased

Forecast for the next 24 hours:
Geomagnetic conditions - weak and moderate magnetic storms predicted
Flare activity - increased

COMMENTARY
Geomagnetic disturbances began on Earth in the morning, which in some analytical materials were interpreted as a very late arrival of a plasma cloud to Earth, which was expected on March 31. But, almost certainly, this is not the case. A coronal hole is clearly acting on Earth: all parameters of the solar wind are changing just as in a textbook. Storms of the G1-G2 level should begin in the next few hours.

Flare activity is moderate, but is in a rather risky zone. A very large group of sunspots is emerging in the central part of the solar disk, the same one that produced the only X-class flare in 2 months at the end of March. In this situation, any plasma cloud will fly directly to Earth with a high probability of a radiation storm. In this case, it may be possible to observe live what protocols are provided by NASA for such situations - the broadcast from the lunar ship cameras is working continuously, although it sometimes shows a blue screen.

The influence of the hole is expected today and tomorrow.

By the way, the Sun looks quite funny today.

Solar Astronomy Laboratory (xras.ru)

Let's see what effects occur when comet Maps passes very close to the sun. From X:

Comet C/2026 A1 (MAPS) update: the comet is now close to the Sun and few observations are reported to COBS. Still, there are some observations that indicate the comet is brightening and is now at magnitude 7.0-7.5. The comet is now only 0.27 AU from the Sun, well inside Mercury's orbit. It is getting quite hot, Mercury being ~430 °C on the sunward side, so the comet is getting baked hard. We will see how it fares through perihelion soon. The comet enters the field of LASCO C3 coronagraph in 2 days (April 2nd) - see below. All bets are off.

 

[Gaby]

There's a G1 geomagnetic storm.

Ongoing, everything is arriving or has arrived.

 

[Gaby]

We're back to 2022 levels and it seems that the trend from last year, coronal holes, will remain with us. That alone, coupled with a weaker magnetic field, will feed the geomagnetic storms. However, I do hope there's a few solar storms in store. Smile, a joined mission between the European Space Agency and Chinese Academy of Science to study Earth's magnetic field and how it responds to solar storms, is going to be launched soon from French Guiana. The initial launch schedule for tomorrow was already postponed due to technical issues. I wish them luck in their endeavors, though.

This time, the comment will be short, as the geomagnetic situation and the flare situation have not changed much yet. There has been some activity in the Sun over the past day, in particular, several weak flares have been recorded, but this has not developed, and even in the current situation it could not have. The main noteworthy detail in the incoming photos is, as has become common recently, another coronal hole, but the impact from it (it will be weak and short-lived) is expected no earlier than Friday. In general, there's not much to look at yet, and there's not much to keep an eye on.

It can be noted that the background activity of the Sun is increasingly falling below level C. This means that the star has returned to the level of 2022 in terms of total activity. Apparently, some energy in the Sun will persist for another couple of years (including very strong bursts are possible), but from the second half of 2028 to the beginning of 2029, a 3-4-year period of empty Sun will begin — the star will pass through a deep minimum.

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (xras.ru) (http://t.me/lpixras)

 

[Ca.]

SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids

CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on April 10th when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth. CIRs are transition zones between fast and slow streams of solar wind. They contain shock waves and enhanced magnetic field that do a good job sparking high-latitude auroras. Aurora alerts: SMS Text

Tabata posted her current assessment of the up-to-date Space Weather activity.

An Earth-Directed Storm Blasts a Big Wave | Space Weather Mid Week 17 March 2026

For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Numerous Closures Reported Due To Kīlauea Eruption Fallout

www.bigislandvideonews.com

by Big Island Video Newsnon Apr 9, 2026 at 12:59 pm

UPDATE – (3:20 p.m.) – From the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory at 2:30 p.m. HST:

• Peak north vent lava fountain heights of approximately 800 feet (240 meters) were reached around 1 p.m. HST; fountain heights are presently about 700 feet (215 meters). The south vent has not been active so far during episode 44, though it produced significant precursory overflows that began on Friday, April 3.
• 
  
• As of 2 p.m. HST, the north vent lava fountain is still reaching about 700 feet in height and it is feeding a plume of ash and gas above. The plume is hitting strong southerly winds about 3,000 feet (1,000 meters) above ground level, and these winds are transporting a narrow band of gas and tephra to the north-northeast of Halemaʻumaʻu. Tephra fallout is strongest in the direction of Kīlauea Military Camp and the Volcano Golf Course subdivision, with pieces of lightweight reticulite up to 12 inches (30 centimeters) reported falling in these areas. Tephra fall has also been reported near Volcano House within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.
• 
  
• The volcanic plume is moving northward and widening over a large section of east Hawaiʻi. These areas may expect fine ashfall consisting of Peleʻs hair and small glassy particles.

(BIVN) – Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park and Highway 11 were closed on Thursday due to tephra fallout from episode 44 in the ongoing Kīlauea summit eruption.

The USGS Volcano Alert level for Kīlauea has been raised to WARNING RED.

Episode 44 began at 11:10 a.m. HST, and current wind conditions are pushing the tephra and ashfall to the north and northeast of Halemaʻumaʻu.

Hawaiʻi County officials announced the closure Highway 11 in Puna at the 25.5 Mile Marker – which is at the intersection of Nahelenani Street – and in Kaʻū at the 40 Mile Marker.

Officials say the closure “was made with coordination between the Hawaiʻi Department of Transportation, HVNP, Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense, and Hawaiʻi Police Department in anticipation of hazards from falling volcanic tephra. Local traffic with proof of residency is permitted as conditions allow.”

Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park is temporarily closed at the park entrance due hazardous volcanic material (tephra) and gas associated with the eruptive episode.

“Rangers evacuating the area reported that tephra chunks the size of softballs were falling at Kīlauea Overlook at Kilauea Military Camp around noon and are continuing,” the National Park Service stated.

“Overnight guests of Volcano House and Kilauea Military Camp will be allowed to enter the park and shelter in place, as will staff,” the National Park Service reported. “The Kahuku Unit is open but can only be accessed past mile marker 40.”

Due to the risk of tephra infiltrating pool circulation and filtration systems, Hawaiʻi County has closed the NAS Swimming Pool in Hilo and the Pāhoa Community Aquatic Center in Puna.

Cascadia Tremor counts are rising. Almost 800 today. Thursday Night Earthquake update.

Apr 9, 2026

Solar Weather Updates.. Solar flares and sunspots..Volcano and earthquake updates.https://streamlabs.com/theearthmaster... or https://the-earthmaster-shop.fourthwa...Current World Earthquake Map https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...Recent California and Nevada Earthquakes http://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Geologist with the facts.

Southern California Earthquake Data Center at Caltech

Fun Facts

On this day in April

Eruption of Mount Tambora (Famous Painting)

The eruption of Mount Tambora was the largest eruption ever witnessed. Its Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) was 7, the only known eruption on that scale since the eruption of Lake Taupo in about 180 AD. The eruption blew 150 cubic km into the atmosphere, killing 10,000 people initially. The...

www.onthisday.com

 

[Gaby]

Contrast the hysterized vocabulary of the source quoted by ca above and the following non-hysterized version:

Лаборатория солнечной астрономии (xras.ru)

A 2-3-day deterioration of the geomagnetic situation is expected due to a coronal hole in the Sun.

The models show high (at the level of 90%) probabilities of weak magnetic storms and disturbances for the next 3 days, from Friday to Sunday. A medium-sized coronal hole is observed on the Sun, According to calculations, the first signs of its impact on the planet should have appeared already between 6 and 9 a.m. Moscow time, but so far there are none. However, the effects of coronal holes are usually difficult to accurately calculate. This is due to the complex shape of such structures and some features of their influence on the interplanetary environment. At the same time, it will not be possible to completely avoid the impact, although there is about a 10% chance that the geomagnetic indices, although they will increase, will not cross the boundary separating the calm state of the magnetic field from the disturbed one.

The most likely storm level is G1-G2 (weak and medium storms). Strong events are excluded.