Solar Cycles and Sol Articles

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tschai

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According to Nasa a "backwards" sunspot recently appeared-that is a sunspot with a reversed magnetic field (most sunspots have a North South magnetic field orientation-this one was South North) The spot was small-and disappeared quickly-but this is a significant occurence as it usually indicates the next Solar max is about to crank up.

And they are predicting this is going to be a really intense maximum, possibly the worst in decades, with intense auroras and proton storms in space.

Looks like we are in for a wild ride-fasten your seatbelt folks!

The full story can be found here:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/15aug_backwards.htm
 
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http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=sci_tech&id=4830283
Scientists Say Sun Generated Solar Tsunami

December 8, 2006 - A major flare on the Sun earlier this week generated what scientists are calling a solar tsunami.

The tsunami-like shock wave, formally called a Moreton wave, rolled across the hot surface, destroying two visible filaments of cool gas on opposite sides of the visible face of the Sun.

Astronomers using a prototype of a new solar telescope in New Mexico recorded the action.

"These large scale 'blast' waves occur infrequently, however, are very powerful," said K. S. Balasubramaniam of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Sunspot, NM, "They quickly propagate in a matter of minutes covering the whole Sun, sweeping away filamentary material."

It is unusual to see such an event from a ground-based observatory, Balasubramaniam said. And it was also unusual that it occurred near solar minimum, when the Sun is at its least active during an 11-year cycle.

But solar activity can come at any time. Flares like this one are spawned by sunspots, which are dark, cool regions that cap magnetic activity below. When the caps pop, colossal doses of superheated matter and radiation are unleashed.

Sunspot 929 began kicking up flares Tuesday, when a major X-9 event was detected by a space-based observatory. When another flare erupted Wednesday, the NSO's Optical Solar Patrol Network (OSPAN) was watching. A shock wave propagated like the splash from a rock thrown into a pond. This was seen as a brightening from compressed and heated hydrogen gas. Astronomers enhanced the contrast of the images to bring out the detail, and they created an animation of the event. Later, the shock wave swept across two dark filaments widely seprated on the solar surface, and they disappeared for a few minutes. Scientists are unsure whether the filaments were blown off or were compressed so they were temporarily invisible, according to an NSO statement. Forecasters say there is a 40 percent chance of more major flares through this weekend. Skywatchers in Alaska, Canada and the very northernmost United States should be on the lookout for colorful Northern Lights generated by the space storminess.
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/008200612180923.htm

December 18, 2006

An energetic storm on the Sun has forced ESA mission controllers to react to anomalies or take action to avoid damage to spacecraft. Several missions, including Integral, Cluster and Envisat, felt the storm's effects, highlighting the need for ESA's ongoing development of space weather forecasting tools.

This press issued by EurekAlert says that the joint ESA/NASA spacecraft SOHO (Solar & Heliospheric Observatory) imaged a large solar flare on 13 December that led to an energetic solar radiation storm. The flare, detected by the LASCO (Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment) spectrometer on board SOHO, gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME), a stream of fast-moving atomic particles, directed towards Earth. The flare also generated X-rays.

The ejection arrived at Earth 14 December between 13:00-19:00 CET (12:00-18:00 UTC), where it gave rise to a strong geomagnetic storm; initial edges of the ejection were detected as early as 04:00 CET (03:00 UTC) on 13 December.

The coronal mass ejection came during a week of intense solar activity that is not yet over. An additional peak event occurred during the night of 14 December, and ground controllers on several ESA missions have reported varying effects on their spacecraft.

Four-spacecraft Cluster II mission was one of the most affected

"We saw three anomalies on 13 December. Cluster 1 had a minor instrument anomaly, while Cluster 2 and 4 had on-board systems affected," says Juergen Volpp, Spacecraft Operations Manager for Cluster at ESA's Space Operations Centre (ESOC) in Germany. "The Attitude and Orbit Control unit on Cluster 2 lost power and autonomously switched over to its redundant unit, while the High-Power Amplifier on Cluster 4 switched itself off. This was a new occurrence which we hadn't seen before," he said.

"When you have a burst, the flux of very fast charged particles increases dramatically. This can cause discharges in electronic components - the so-called 'single-event upsets' - on the spacecraft, as well as damage or loss of data in solid-state memories," says Volpp.

Volpp says he can't be certain that the increased energetic particle flux triggered the anomalies, but their occurrence is strongly correlated with the timing of the peak burst on 13 December. He expects the mission to be operating normally again in a few days.

Envisat & Integral affected

Envisat also experienced an unexpected anomaly correlated with the particle flux's arrival at Earth.

"Operation of the Envisat Payload Module Computer was autonomously suspended, causing all payload instruments to be switched off. It happened around 19:00 CET, just before the particle peak on the 13th," said Frank Diekmann, Spacecraft Operations Manager for Envisat. "We are still in a period of very high solar activity," he added.

Controllers working on Integral had perhaps the best sense of the recent solar activity - two of the mission's four instruments include the JEM-X and IBIS experiments, sensitive to X-rays and charged particles, respectively. However, they also had to take the most proactive action to avoid damage to the spacecraft's sensitive sensors.

"JEM-X automatically switched itself into safe mode twice, and we manually switched IRIS off to avoid over-exposure," says Michael Schmidt, Spacecraft Operations Manager for Integral.

ESA deep space missions avoid harm

The flurry of activity for controllers working on ESA missions orbiting in the region of the Earth was a direct result of Thursday's coronal mass ejection heading more or less directly towards our planet.

"The mass ejection headed from the Sun to Earth and our planetary missions, on the other hand, weren't affected," explains Paolo Ferri, Head of the Solar and Planetary Missions Division at ESOC.

Ferri says that CME events are highly directional, and that by chance all three of ESA's deep space missions, Mars Express, Venus Express and Rosetta, happen to be oriented on the side of the Sun opposite to the Earth right now. "Our interplanetary spacecraft didn't see anything," he adds.

However, radio signals transmitted from the three deep space missions must pass by the Sun to reach Earth, and so flight control teams could in fact notice the increased solar activity as higher-than-normal interference in the signals received on the ground.

Improved space weather forecasting tools now in development

The recent solar activity highlights the ongoing need for accurate space weather forecasting and warning systems, so that spacecraft operators can take action to protect instruments and systems hours or even minutes before a peak of radiation or particles passes.

ESOC's Mission Control Technologies unit is working with the Institute for the Development of New Technologies, an academic institute in Caparica, Portugal, and Deimos Engenharia, a private company, in Lisbon, Portugal, to develop automated tools that can assess and eventually forecast space weather.

The Space Environment Information System for Operations (SEIS), now in use at ESOC, has been tracking this month's solar activity based on data gathered from numerous participating ground observatories as well as spacecraft including Integral, Envisat and XMM-Newton, NASA's GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) spacecraft.

"By monitoring reports generated by SEIS, we can estimate when solar fluxes will reach the Earth, which can vary from a few hours to a few days from the time of a solar flare," says Federico Di Marco, a flight engineer working on Integral, the reference mission for the new SEIS tool.

His colleague Orlane Bergogne, also on the Integral team, produces a Radiation Assessment generated by SEIS, showing X-ray and particle fluxes for the month of December."

"The current solar activity actually began on 5 December, and we could already see effects on Integral on 6 December. Eventually, we aim to develop SEIS into a tool that can issue warnings and alerts to any mission operator, which will be particularly valuable to spacecraft that don't have their own radiation sensors on board," she says.

The Sun's active week

As reported on the SOHO mission site, the Sun unleashed a large (X-3 class) solar flare this week on 13 December 2006, along with a coronal mass ejection that headed towards Earth. Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M, or X, with the "X" category ranked as the strongest, based on peak flux, or particle density.

The source of this week's eruptions was the very active sunspot region 930. A shower of high-energy particles appeared as specks and white streaks on the imagers aboard SOHO; the CME particles travel at speeds of up to several thousand kilometres per second.

When the charged CME particles arrive at Earth, they can cause a variety of disruptions, affecting communication and navigation networks, telephone systems and broadcasts.

On 14 December, China's People's Daily reported widespread disruption of shortwave radio communications in China on Wednesday morning. Astronauts on board the International Space Station slept in protected areas of the station as a precaution.

In October 2003, a solar flare forced Japan's Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS), also known as Kodama, into safe mode.
 
NASA Study Acknowledges Solar Cycle, Not Man, Responsible for Past Warming
http://www.dailytech.com/NASA+Study+Acknowledges+Solar+Cycle+Not+Man+Responsible+for+Past+Warming/article15310.htm

Report indicates solar cycle has been impacting Earth since the Industrial Revolution

Some researchers believe that the solar cycle influences global climate changes. They attribute recent warming trends to cyclic variation. Skeptics, though, argue that there's little hard evidence of a solar hand in recent climate changes.

Now, a new research report from a surprising source may help to lay this skepticism to rest. A study from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland looking at climate data over the past century has concluded that solar variation has made a significant impact on the Earth's climate. The report concludes that evidence for climate changes based on solar radiation can be traced back as far as the Industrial Revolution.

Past research has shown that the sun goes through eleven year cycles. At the cycle's peak, solar activity occurring near sunspots is particularly intense, basking the Earth in solar heat. According to Robert Cahalan, a climatologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center, "Right now, we are in between major ice ages, in a period that has been called the Holocene."

Thomas Woods, solar scientist at the University of Colorado in Boulder concludes, "The fluctuations in the solar cycle impacts Earth's global temperature by about 0.1 degree Celsius, slightly hotter during solar maximum and cooler during solar minimum. The sun is currently at its minimum, and the next solar maximum is expected in 2012."

According to the study, during periods of solar quiet, 1,361 watts per square meter of solar energy reaches Earth's outermost atmosphere. Periods of more intense activity brought 1.4 watts per square meter (0.1 percent) more energy.

While the NASA study acknowledged the sun's influence on warming and cooling patterns, it then went badly off the tracks. Ignoring its own evidence, it returned to an argument that man had replaced the sun as the cause current warming patterns. Like many studies, this conclusion was based less on hard data and more on questionable correlations and inaccurate modeling techniques.

The inconvertible fact, here is that even NASA's own study acknowledges that solar variation has caused climate change in the past. And even the study's members, mostly ardent supports of AGW theory, acknowledge that the sun may play a significant role in future climate changes.




11265_sunspot_numbers.png

Past studies have shown that sunspot numbers correspond to warming or cooling trends. The twentieth century has featured heightened activity, indicating a warming trend. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)


11266_Solar_Activity_Proxies.png

Solar activity has shown a major spike in the twentieth century, corresponding to global warming. This cyclic variation was acknowledged by a recent NASA study, which reviewed a great deal of past climate data. (Source: Wikimedia Commons)
 
Im not sure what to make of this article, its slightly manipulative and a limited hangout of sorts. But I guess any admittance to solar-based warming/cooling is better then flat denial.
 
Seems like the Sun influence on us in many ways, here's interesting sott article covering Sun's influence on wars, psychosis and human behaviour:

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/226318-Scientists-Research-Warns-Humanity-May-be-Facing-Vortex-of-Death-


Quote:

The connection was initially discovered by noted Russian scientist Alexander Chizhevsky during 1915: solar storms trigger conflict, wars and death. A vortex of death.

...Chizhevsky found after intense research that the rise and fall of solar activity - interacting with the earth's magnetic field - causes mass changes in human's perspective's, moods, emotions and behavioral patterns. All are affected by sunspots and solar flares

...Solar cycle 22

During 1990 the solar maximum fever pitch initiated skirmishes around the world culminating with Iraq invading Kuwait and the U.S. battling back against Saddam Hussein's army.

Then, 11 years later, the 9-11 attacks against New York and Washington, D.C were followed by two wars in quick succession: Afghanistan and again Iraq.

According to the 11-year solar cycle, as the sun entered its next active peak during late 2010 the disruptions in the earth's magnetic field could be predicted to cause unrest, instability, uprisings, outbreaks of war, destruction and mass death once again.

End quote

Lot to think about.....
 
It happened only a few hours ago, so here is the relevant information: http://spaceweather.com/

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because this sunspot is directly facing Earth, everything about the blast was geoeffective. For one thing, it hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) directly toward our planet. According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will hit Earth on July 14th around 10:20 UT (+/- 7 hours) and could spark strong geomagnetic storms. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras this weekend. Geomagnetic storm alerts: text, voice.

The explosion also strobed Earth with a pulse of extreme UV radiation, shown here in an image captured by NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

x1p4_strip.jpg


This has been a busy month so far for the sun. Today's X1.4 flare caused a strong R3 radio blackout according to solarham.net, with the CME wave impact expected to occur July 14 10:20 UT +/-7h. There was only a 15% chance of an X-class flare under current conditions. Here is the ENLIL model of the projected impact:

cmemodel2.jpg


July is shaping up to be an active month in our solar system. It will be interesting to wait and see what occurs next.
 
REVISED FORECAST: The CME launched toward Earth by yesterday's X-flare is moving faster than originally thought. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have revised their forecast accordingly, advancing the cloud's expected arrival time to 09:17 UT (5:17 am EDT) on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.
http://spaceweather.com/
 
Just noticed this V for Vendetta Day X3 Solar Flare event on Ben Davidson's YT Suspicious0bservers page:

X3 Solar Flare - Nov.5.2013

https://youtu.be/WNGLqU3O4DI?list=UUTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ

According to Ben, an associated CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) will be moderate (just wanted to post this up for chronicling purposes and in case our SoTT team wishes to post on a Signs page for recent news)...

Happy :v: Day, Everyone !!! :cool: :cool2:
 

https://youtu.be/VeVaz5Xkmxw

An X 4.9 Class Flare took place in the returning region 1967, renamed to 1990, on the night of February 24 (CET).

Large coronal mass ejection was also associated with the Flare, some of which will reach Earth.

The flare looks like a massive ball of fire!

Xray_1m_66.gif
 
Looks like this solar flare will miss us or maybe we will experience a near-miss. On the other hand, depending on speed and density, the plasma from the equatorial coronal hole
coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
can have some effects in the next few days (geophysical? climatic? wait and see).
 
DId anyone else experience loss of control of their electronic devices? Our car alarms didn't work and the tv turned on by itself and the closer I came in contact with anything electronic i was like an "interference". It took me a while to figure it out but i read in nasas website that we had the biggest solar flare ever recorded. I wonder what this means as far as the wave. I wonder if i wrote this post already? I'm feeling dejavu. How did i search for all of the post I've made? but anywho i just find it strange all of these things happened in the same timeframe. we had the biggest solar flare ever, haleys comets, earthquakes in MI OH etc, blood moons, eclipses, etc. sheese ...
 
LIV said:
DId anyone else experience loss of control of their electronic devices? Our car alarms didn't work and the tv turned on by itself and the closer I came in contact with anything electronic i was like an "interference".

The worst problem I've had recently is internet connection issues (including difficulty loading pages), but when I spoke with my parents late last week, my mom mentioned that she overheard two different people at the grocery store talking independently about how their cars had been having electrical shorts and related problems.

LIV said:
I wonder if i wrote this post already? I'm feeling dejavu. How did i search for all of the post I've made?

I don't believe you've already posted this -- to search for own posts, click the 'profile' button toward the top of the main page and then the 'show posts' button under your avatar.

LIV said:
but anywho i just find it strange all of these things happened in the same timeframe. we had the biggest solar flare ever, haleys comets, earthquakes in MI OH etc, blood moons, eclipses, etc.

It's possible that this could be related to the symptoms you mentioned in another recent post. I've been wondering about the connection between physical symptoms and solar activity since having a couple of migraines last week (I don't get them often, but when I have in the past couple of years, it's been in the spring). Here are a couple of brief articles about solar flare/physiological interaction:

http://www.migrainereliefblog.com/migraine-headache-can-solar-flares-affect-it/​

http://www.commdiginews.com/health-science/health/the-impact-of-solar-flares-on-the-human-mood-and-psyche-25963/

From 1948 to 1997, the Institute of North Industrial Ecology Problems in Russia found that geomagnetic activity showed three seasonal peaks each of those years (March to May, in July, and in October). Every peak matched an increased incidence of anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, and suicide in the city Kirovsk.

Parts of this link are somewhat New Agey, so take the discussion with a grain of salt -- I'm posting the disabled link because there might be something to the symptomology she discusses in relation to solar flare activity:

_http://www.carliniinstitute.com/how_solar_flares_are_affecing_us
 
LIV said:
DId anyone else experience loss of control of their electronic devices? Our car alarms didn't work and the tv turned on by itself and the closer I came in contact with anything electronic i was like an "interference". It took me a while to figure it out but i read in nasas website that we had the biggest solar flare ever recorded. I wonder what this means as far as the wave.

The battery in both my car and phone were acting up around that weekend. The Monday following I had to take my car in to have the battery replaced as the car was slow to start. Had already been told by the mechanic earlier this year that the battery would need to be replaced possibly soon. Found it interesting that as I left the auto shop the next person that came in mentioned their car battery acting up. About my phone, it started to freeze and suddenly turn off randomly during the week prior. Then a day or so before that weekend it wouldn't turn on at all, even with it plugged so had the phone looked at.

LIV said:
I wonder if i wrote this post already? I'm feeling dejavu. How did i search for all of the post I've made? but anywho i just find it strange all of these things happened in the same timeframe. we had the biggest solar flare ever, haleys comets, earthquakes in MI OH etc, blood moons, eclipses, etc. sheese ...

Yep, I remember reading a similar post by you in the May 2nd session thread. I remember because I was going to respond at the time but didn't get around to it.
 
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