The AMOC

[Ellipse]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC is the main system of the Earth bringing heat to the north. There's a lot of suspicion the current started to collapse and so a new ice age is on the way.



Measures are regularly done to evaluate its velocity and temperature. Now a cold spot has been discovered and the only explanation is that the AMOC is really collapsing.

“People have been asking why this cold spot exists,” said UCR climate scientist Wei Liu, who led the study with doctoral student Kai-Yuan Li. “We found the most likely answer is a weakening AMOC.”

As the paper published in Communications Earth & Environment shows, only the models simulating a weakened AMOC matched the real-world data. Models that assumed a stronger circulation didn’t come close.

“It’s a very robust correlation,” Li said. “If you look at the observations and compare them with all the simulations, only the weakened-AMOC scenario reproduces the cooling in this one region.”

Full article:

Strange Atlantic cold spot traced to ocean slowdown

For more than a century, a patch of cold water south of Greenland has resisted the Atlantic Ocean’s overall warming, fueling debate amongst scientists. A UC Riverside study identifies the cause as the long-term weakening of the AMOC, a major ocean circulation system.

www.eurekalert.org

 

[Laura]

Well, last couple of years we have certainly not had long spells of heat. Spikes, yes, but then cooling. All last year our grass NEVER turned brown as it usually does with heat waves. This morning, it was 12C and is likely to be even cooler tomorrow morning.

 

[Joe]

Well, last couple of years we have certainly not had long spells of heat. Spikes, yes, but then cooling. All last year our grass NEVER turned brown as it usually does with heat waves. This morning, it was 12C and is likely to be even cooler tomorrow morning.

It's semi brown this year already though. Anyone who anticipates an ice age should lobby for global warming, given that it is a prerequisite.

 

[SasaM]

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC is the main system of the Earth bringing heat to the north. There's a lot of suspicion the current started to collapse and so a new ice age is on the way.

View attachment 110104

Measures are regularly done to evaluate its velocity and temperature. Now a cold spot has been discovered and the only explanation is that the AMOC is really collapsing.

Full article:

Strange Atlantic cold spot traced to ocean slowdown

For more than a century, a patch of cold water south of Greenland has resisted the Atlantic Ocean’s overall warming, fueling debate amongst scientists. A UC Riverside study identifies the cause as the long-term weakening of the AMOC, a major ocean circulation system.

www.eurekalert.org

The cold spot mentioned in the cited article, or cold blob as called in the video in the quoted post below from 2 years ago, has been known for quite some time, and allegedly is the only place on Earth that's been cooling down since Industrial revolution.

BTW, searching Forum for AMOC returned results, talking about its weakening and possibility of its total collapse, going back a decade or even more. Of course, it was all blamed at the time on (man made) global warming, which fits nicely to what Joe wrote above as a prerequisite for the onset of an ice age.

FWIW.

"Winter is Coming" wrote George RR Martin, well after I started thinking about ice ages, and that the collapse of the AMOC could precipitate one. Well, guess what?

 

[Nević Nenad]

But if the ocean are slowing down as they says, doesn't that already means that the water is cooling down? Water is more dense and thus slower on lower temperatures, which would than mean that when cooling down starts it would go faster and faster in progression, to the point of no return, and than the quick ace age.

In the article they say that the currents are hauling warm water from the tropics to the north, and that now the current is slowing down. But they didn't said why is it slowing down. Is it because the water in the tropics receives less energy and thus is less warm than it should be, and because of that moves slower? Or because something else is slowing the current, like some gravitational problem, or problem with chemical compound of water. Anyway, not great article.

 

[SasaM]

But if the ocean are slowing down as they says, doesn't that already means that the water is cooling down?

With sea and ocean currents things are more complex than that.

Water density is in principle a function of its temperature, but also of its salinity ("salinitet" in our language - how much "matter" there is in the sea water) and (atmospheric and hydrostatic) pressure, and the dependance is not a nice analytical one, but usually gets determined from the real measurements. And density plays a major role only for vertical currents, so called convective motions, that is dropping down toward the sea floor of AMOC when it approches the North Pole due to influx of cold water and general cooling effect at those latitudes.

For horizontal motions there could be many factors involved, in case of surface currents there could be wind, pressure and even Coriolis force that can have dominant effects. In principle, interaction with the lower levels of the atmosphere can be rather important in that case, meaning that the conditions of the very atmosphere, its density, temperature, horizontal and vertical motions, etc., can play important role, especially on longer time scales.

One of possible combined effects of wind and Coriolis force on water transport was shortly discussed in this post, and effect of pressure on sea currents can nicely be seen for example by what kind of water enters the Adriatic sea - depending on the pressure conditions in Ionian sea (anticyclone or cyclone pressure vortex there), through the Gate of Otranto into Adriatic enters either water from the West Mediteranean or water from the Levant (not necessarily in that respective order).

The study of sea and ocean currents is basically a whole scientific, geophysical field of research on its own, like oceanography for example or meteorology in case of the atmosphere. And just like meteorology, it's a long way from being an exact discipline, full of various kinds of modellings and based on different numerical methods to solve the approximative equations.

FWIW.

 

[axj]

But if the ocean are slowing down as they says, doesn't that already means that the water is cooling down?

I think the most obvious contributing factor may be the changing jet-streams and precipitation belts changing locations, which results in a lot of flooding in areas like Spain and others. Other potential factors that can impact the AMOC could be an increase in underwater volcanic activity or even the weakening magnetic field along with the magnetic poles moving faster in the last few decades.

The usual explanation for a potential AMOC shutdown is that it can happen due to too much meltwater from "global warming". Meltwater could be a contributing factor since the Arctic has seen more warming while other areas have seen more cooling.

 

[Kadam303]

perhaps there is other trigger . and maybe trigger was already fired
SMOC Southern Ocean circulation
((funny thing is that fact checkers aka spin doctors debunked this paper as fake which means its not - likely ))

as everything is connected, migrating pols , wakening magnetosphere, twin sun and big comets fly by changes are happening. ​

maybe northern circulation will be caused by southern circulation over turn... lately i was thinking what will trigger AMOC as i didnt see any evidence of any change .. now game is on.. what do you think?

​

paper : https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2500440122​

Southern Ocean circulation reversed | International Environment Forum

iefworld.org

Southern Ocean circulation reversed​

1 July 2025

---

A major reversal in ocean circulation has been detected in the Southern Ocean for the first time, with key climate implications. Using Earth observation satellites, a study led by the National Oceanographic Center (NOC, United Kingdom) and published in PNAS, shows that, since 2016, a sustained increase in surface salinity has been detected in the region between the polar and subpolar gyres of the Antarctic Ocean. This change in water composition suggests that the deep ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere — known as the SMOC — is not only being altered, but has reversed. That is, instead of sinking into the depths, surface water is being replaced by deep water masses rising to the surface, bringing with them heat and carbon dioxide (CO₂) that had been trapped for centuries.

The surface waters around Antarctica are growing saltier, even as sea ice is diminishing rapidly. Since 2015, Antarctica has lost an area of sea ice comparable in size to Greenland – one of the fastest environmental changes on the planet in recent decades. Typically, melting ice reduces the salinity of surface waters, creating conditions that then help ice to regenerate. But there has been a sudden rise in surface salinity south of 50° S latitude, implying that the process involved in ice melt freshening surface waters is more intricate. This change was completely unexpected. Since the early 1980s, surface waters had been getting fresher and colder, helping sea ice expand.

Saltier surface waters alter the dynamics of the ocean. Normally, the cold, fresh surface water sits on top of warmer, saltier water deep below, since buoyancy at these latitudes is largely controlled by salinity. This layering, traps heat in the ocean depths, keeping surface waters cool and helping sea ice to form. But now the saltier surface waters are enabling heat from deeper down to rise more readily. This upward flow of warmer water melts sea ice from beneath, making it significantly harder for ice to reform. If this trend of higher salinity and reduced ice persists, it could lead to lasting changes in the Southern Ocean, with consequences for the rest of the world.

The implications are far-reaching as changes in this remote region can disrupt global ocean currents, affect climate patterns, and alter ecosystems far beyond the Antarctic. We might be closer to passing a tipping point than expected and we have potentially entered a new state defined by persistent sea ice decline, sustained by a newly discovered feedback loop.

 

[Gaby]

perhaps there is other trigger . and maybe trigger was already fired
SMOC Southern Ocean circulation

Very interesting and very legit research! They are practically saying we're PAST THE threshold. I'll quote the original research:

A change in the Southern Ocean structure can have climate implications

A change in the Southern Ocean structure can have climate implications | Institut de Ciències del Mar

www.icm.csic.es

Thanks to data obtained from Earth observation satellites, an international team of scientists has detected an unprecedented phenomenon for the first time: a change in the state of the Southern Ocean. The study, led by the University of Southampton (United Kingdom), was recently published in the journal PNAS. The Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) played a fundamental role in the research by developing a set of pioneering satellite observations within the framework of the SO-FRESH project, funded by the European Space Agency (ESA).

The study’s main finding is both surprising and alarming: since 2016, a sustained increase in surface salinity has been detected across the Antartic Circumpolar Current. That change in water composition suggests a change in the balance of the components the ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Fresher surface water close to the sea ice edge is being replaced by more saline waters.

“We are witnessing a true change in ocean properties in the Southern Hemisphere—something we’ve never seen before. Climate models predict freshening of surface wàters in the Southern Ocean, while we observe the opposite, an increase in salinity” explains Antonio Turiel, ICM-CSIC researcher and co-author of the study. “While the world is debating the potential collapse of the AMOC in the North Atlantic, we’re seeing that the Southern Ocean is drastically changing, as sea ice coverage declines and the upper ocean is becoming saltier. This could have unprecedented global climate impacts.”

According to the research team, the consequences of this reversal (freshening to salinification) are already becoming visible. Saltier Surface waters can drive enhanced Exchange with deep, warmer waters, driving enhanced upward heat flux and the accelerated melting of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, potentially releasing CO2.

This discovery was made possible thanks to a key technical breakthrough developed by the Barcelona Expert Center (BEC), a laboratory of ICM-CSIC specialized in satellite ocean observation. Until now, the Southern Ocean region was virtually inaccessible to satellites due to its low temperatures and the complex, ever-changing dynamics of sea ice. As a result, the BEC team developed a new data processor for the European SMOS satellite, tailored to the geographical and climatic variability of the polar environment.

“The new processor has allowed us to obtain surface salinity data of unprecedented quality in this region,” explains Verónica González. “Thanks to this improvement, we can now provide a coherent explanation for the rapid Antarctic sea ice loss that had puzzled the scientific community.”

The study not only provides a key piece in the climate change puzzle, but also redefines the role of the Southern Ocean in the global climate system. The Southern Ocean plays an essential role in regulating the planet’s heat and carbon. Its disruption could trigger cascading effects on other circulation systems such as the AMOC, with potential consequences for the climate in Europe and other regions.

Aware of the urgent need to better understand these processes, BEC has launched two new ESA-funded projects in 2025: ARCTIC-FLOW, focused on the study of freshwater and density fluxes in the Arctic Ocean, and the climate change initiative CCI OSHF (Ocean Surface Heat Flux), dedicated to analyzing heat flux at the ocean surface. Both projects aim to develop new satellite methodologies that will be key to monitoring, understanding, and anticipating the effects of accelerated climate change.

“The planet is sending us increasingly clear signals that we are crossing critical thresholds,” concludes Estrella Olmedo. “And in this case, it has done so from a remote corner of the world that is very difficult to monitor: the Southern Ocean. Thanks to satellites and cutting-edge observation tools, we can now see what was once invisible.”

 

[Gaby]

Very interesting and very legit research! They are practically saying we're PAST THE threshold. I'll quote the original research:

This is the other original article:

Antarctic waters getting saltier as sea ice wanes

Antarctic waters getting saltier as sea ice wanes

Using data from ESA’s SMOS satellite, scientists have revealed a surprising shift in the Southern Ocean – surface waters around Antarctica are growing saltier, even as sea ice is diminishing rapidly. This finding defies the norm because melting ice typically freshens ocean surface water.The...

www.esa.int

Using data from ESA’s SMOS satellite, scientists have revealed a surprising shift in the Southern Ocean – surface waters around Antarctica are growing saltier, even as sea ice is diminishing rapidly. This finding defies the norm because melting ice typically freshens ocean surface water.

The implications are far-reaching as changes in this remote region can disrupt global ocean currents, affect climate patterns, and alter ecosystems far beyond the Antarctic.

Since 2015, Antarctica has lost an area of sea ice comparable in size to Greenland – one of the fastest environmental changes on the planet in recent decades. Typically, melting ice reduces the salinity of surface waters, creating conditions that then help ice to regenerate.

However, using measurements of ocean salinity from ESA’s SMOS mission, a team of researchers, led by the University of Southampton in the UK, has made a startling discovery.

They found that there has been a sudden rise in surface salinity south of 50° S latitude, implying that the processes involved in ice melt freshening surface waters is more intricate.

This change was completely unexpected. Since the early 1980s, surface waters had been getting fresher and colder, helping sea ice expand.

Alessandro Silvano, who led the research published this week in the journal PNAS, said, “The discovery was unexpected because melting ice should freshen the ocean, not make it saltier. Yet SMOS satellite data reveal the opposite is occurring, and this is deeply troubling.

“Saltier surface waters alter the dynamics of the ocean. Normally, the cold, fresh surface water sits on top of warmer, saltier water deep below, since buoyancy at these latitudes is largely controlled by salinity. This layering, traps heat in the ocean depths, keeping surface waters cool and helping sea ice to form.

“But now the saltier surface waters are enabling heat from deeper down to rise more readily. This upward flow of warmer water melts sea ice from beneath, making it significantly harder for ice to reform.”

This shift in ocean conditions has coincided with a sharp decline in Antarctic sea ice and the unexpected reappearance of the Maud Rise polynya – a vast area of open water in the Weddell Sea that hasn’t been seen since the 1970s.

Dr Silvano commented, “The return of the Maud Rise polynya highlights just how abnormal the current situation is. If this trend of higher salinity and reduced ice persists, it could lead to lasting changes in the Southern Ocean, with consequences for the rest of the world.”

Monitoring the Southern Ocean is no easy task. As one of the most remote and stormy regions on the planet, and shrouded in darkness for months at a time, it poses significant challenges for scientific study.

To overcome these challenges, researchers at the University of Southampton, in collaboration with the Barcelona Expert Centre in Spain, developed advanced algorithms to track surface ocean conditions in polar regions using satellite data. The project was funded through ESA’s Science for Society initiative under the Earth Observation FutureEO programme.

Roberto Sabia, ESA Earth Observation Ocean Scientist, said “This is yet another example of how crucial sea-surface salinity measurements from space are. This novel regional product has been devised to overcome the conventional limitations of salinity retrieval at high-latitudes, an area where seawater density is largely controlled by salinity.”

By integrating observations from ESA’s SMOS satellite with in-situ measurements from various devices, the team built a 15-year dataset capturing long-term changes in salinity, temperature, and sea ice across the Southern Ocean.

Dr Silvano added, “Our new study has revealed that the Southern Ocean is changing, but in a different way to what we expected.

“We might be closer to passing a tipping point than expected and we have potentially entered a new state defined by persistent sea ice decline, sustained by a newly discovered feedback loop.”

The loss of Antarctic sea ice has far-reaching global consequences. As the ice melts, more heat stored in the ocean is released into the atmosphere, fuelling more intense storms and accelerating climate change.

This, in turn, contributes to extreme heatwaves on land and further melting of the Antarctic ice sheet – leading to rising sea levels around the world. Diminished sea ice also threatens vital habitats for penguins and other species that depend on the ice for survival.

Antarctica is no longer the stable, frozen continent it was once thought to be. It is undergoing rapid and unexpected changes that current climate models didn’t predict. Until recently, these models assumed that a warming climate would lead to increased precipitation and ice melt, freshening surface waters and helping to maintain relatively stable sea ice levels.

That assumption no longer holds true. These new findings reveal a rise in surface water salinity, a breakdown in the ocean’s layered structure, and a much faster decline in sea ice than previously anticipated.

Alberto Naveira Garabato, a co-author of the paper, added, “These findings show that we still have gaps in our understanding of ocean and climate dynamics. Continuous satellite and in-situ monitoring is essential if we want to track and predict these critical changes.”

This activity is part of the ESA–EC Earth System Science Initiative, aiming at ensuring scientific coordination across ESA- and EC-funded projects to address major observation and knowledge gaps in Earth system and climate research.

About SMOS
ESA’s remarkable Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission has recently its 15-year milestone in orbit, observing two important aspects of Earth’s water cycle: soil moisture and ocean salinity.

The mission has advanced our understanding of how water is exchanged between the planet’s surface and the atmosphere, helping to improve weather and climate models.

Launched in 2009, SMOS is an Earth Explorer missions developed within ESA’s FutureEO programme.

About the Maud Rise Polynya:

The Maud Rise polynya is a large area of open water surrounded by sea ice that forms in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. It is named after the Maud Rise, an underwater mountain feature. The polynya has been observed since the 1970s and has appeared sporadically, with notable events occurring in 2016 and 2017 when it reached the size of Switzerland.

The formation of the Maud Rise polynya is attributed to a combination of factors, including the strengthening of the circular ocean current in the Weddell Sea, which brings warm water from the depths to the surface, facilitating the melting of sea ice. Additionally, turbulent eddies around Maud Rise act as pumps, encouraging the rise of salt water towards the surface. This process, combined with Ekman transport, helps maintain the opening in the sea ice despite unfavorable conditions.

The 2016-2017 Maud Rise polynya was particularly significant, as it persisted for several weeks and was the largest and longest-lived example of the phenomenon since the 1970s. The polynya's formation is also linked to the interaction between wind, ocean flow, and topography, with an Ekman transport of salt across a jet girdling the northern flank of the Maud Rise playing a key role.

The Maud Rise polynya has implications for the Antarctic ecosystem and regional climate, as it can influence the circulation of ocean currents and the transport of heat in the region. Understanding these phenomena is crucial for comprehending the impacts of global warming on the polar regions.

 

[iamthatis]

The author below addresses this new finding of potential Antarctic salinity collapse, stating that the projected slowdown of the current is based on insubstantial modelling:

Antarctica Ice Growing Across Large Areas for at Least 85 Years, Aerial Photos Show

The Copenhagen scientists examined hundreds of old aerial photographs taken for mapping work in 1937. The images were supplemented with a number of photographs taken in the 1950s and 1974 of the sa…

wattsupwiththat.com

by Chris Morrison

Sensational new discoveries arising from long-forgotten early aerial photographs indicate that ice has remained stable and even grown slightly since the 1930s over a 2,000 km stretch of East Antarctica. In a recent paper published in Nature Communications, researchers from the University of Copenhagen came to their conclusions by tracking glacial movement in an area with as much ice as the Greenland ice sheet. The findings are unlikely to feature in narrative-driven mainstream media. The silence will probably replicate the response to another recent paper that found the ice shelves surrounding Antarctica grew in overall size from 2009-2019.

The Copenhagen scientists examined hundreds of old aerial photographs taken for mapping work in 1937. The images were supplemented with a number of photographs taken in the 1950s and 1974 of the same area and a 3D computer reconstruction was produced. This allowed the researchers to examine the evolution of glaciers over a significant time period. In order to determine if recent trends exceed the scale of natural variability, long-term observations are said to be vital.

“Compared to modern data, the ice flow speeds are unchanged. While some glaciers have thinned over shorter intermediate periods of 10-20 years, they have remained stable or grown slightly in the long term, indicating a system in balance,” it was noted.

Actual long-term scientific observations will always beat media-friendly computer-modelled pseudoscientific opinions and alarm drummed up by short-term outliers. The authors note that using data from historical sources such as early photographs provides extensive coverage across large areas with detailed temporal and three-dimensional information. Geological evidence covers longer time scales with temporal uncertainties of thousands of years, while estimates from ice cores are generally very local and spatially confined. In Antarctica, it is pointed out, the scarcity of historical climate data makes climate reanalysis estimates before 1970 “largely uncertain”, while “observed trends cannot clearly be distinguished from natural variability”. Not that this stops mainstream activists such as Clive Cookson at the Financial Times who reacted to a recent two-year downward spike in Antarctica sea ice with the suggestion that the area faced a “catastrophic cascade of extreme environmental events… that will affect the climate around the world”.

Of course a “system in balance” is the last thing a Net Zero-obsessed mainstream wants to hear about. The Antarctica Circumpolar Current is the strongest flow of water on the planet and on March 4th the BBC brought news that it was “at risk of failing”. New research is said to suggest that the current will be 20% slower within 25 years “as the world warms, with far reaching consequences for life on Earth”.

Fresh ice melt water is said to cause major changes in the density structure of the ocean, leading to a projected slowdown of the current. Inexplicably, the BBC report failed to note that the prediction was generated by a computer model which had been loaded with a ‘pathway’ that assumed global temperatures would rise up to 4°C within less than 80 years. The clickbait-searching scientists behind the findings observed the recent rapidly declining sea ice in Antarctica, but failed to report a more recent recovery. At the end of 2024, the extent of sea ice was roughly the same as the 1981 to 2010 average. According to the US-based National Snow and Ice Data Centre, “this provides a sharp illustration of the high variability of Antarctica sea ice extent”. And recent examination of earlier photographic evidence provides more insights, with early Nimbus weather satellite images revealing that the 2023 decline was similar to that seen in 1966.

Regular readers of the Daily Sceptic will of course be aware that Antarctica is a difficult place to whip up climate panic, although it must be conceded that mainstream science and media have spared little effort in attempting to do so. Over the last seven decades there has been little or no warming over large areas of the continent. What warming there has been, on the west side, is directly on top of a large number of volcanoes. A recent paper from Singh and Polvani found that Antarctica sea ice “has modestly expanded, a finding that seems to confirm the work on the ice shelf increases between 2009-2019. Warming has been “nearly non-existent” over 70 years, state Singh and Polvani. According to NASA figures, the ice loss is 0.0005% a year. As an example of how humans cause the climate to warm by burning hydrocarbons and eating meat, Antarctica leaves a lot to be desired.

There's also this article below, claiming that the salinity changes and the appearance of the polynya are being blown out of proportion by AGW predictions, leading to media panic.

Ocean “Reversal” Hysteria: Facts Not Included

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Every so often, the climate media machine spits out a headline so breathless you’d think the laws of physics had just been accidentally repealed by a badly-worded ex…

wattsupwiththat.com

Every so often, the climate media machine spits out a headline so breathless you’d think the laws of physics had just been accidentally repealed by a badly-worded executive order. Case in point: bne IntelliNews in Germany recently told us that a “major ocean current in the Southern Hemisphere has reversed direction for the first time in recorded history,” and that climatologists are calling it a “catastrophic” tipping point. It also quotes a climatologist as saying “The stunning reversal of ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere confirms the global climate system has entered a catastrophic phase.”

And the headline for that hysteria?

Southern Ocean current reverses for first time, signalling risk of climate system collapse

The implication: pack your bags, the climate apocalypse is here, and don’t forget your floaties.

But as is so often the case, the devil isn’t just in the details—it’s in the words they didn’t mention. The article, like a magician with something up both sleeves, never links to the actual scientific study.

So, after a bit of digital spelunking, I dug up the source. It’s an article in PNAS, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, yclept “Rising surface salinity and declining sea ice: A new Southern Ocean state revealed by satellites.”

To start with, here’s the Southern Ocean Overturning Circulation (SMOC) that they are claiming has “reversed”.

Figure 1. Ocean currents around Antarctica. The Bottom Water descends from the edge of the continent and runs towards the Equator along the ocean floor. Above that, the Deep Water flows towards Antarctica, rises to the surface, and moves back toward the Equator. When it hits the Circumpolar Current it splits into the Intermediate Water and Mode Water. Not sure what a “reversal” of that would look like.

And when I got to the study, what do you know? The study doesn’t mention “tipping point,” “collapse,” “current reversal,” “Southern Ocean current” or even “overturning circulation.” The only “reversal” in the paper refers to satellites detecting a reversal in surface salinity trends from decreasing to increasing, not a reversal in the the direction of the Southern ocean’s most complex circulation shown above.

So what did the study actually say? Here’s the paper’s abstract:

“For decades, the surface of the polar Southern Ocean (south of 50°S) has been freshening—an expected response to a warming climate. This freshening enhanced upper-ocean stratification, reducing the upward transport of subsurface heat and possibly contributing to sea ice expansion. It also limited the formation of open-ocean polynyas. Using satellite observations, we reveal a marked increase in surface salinity across the circumpolar Southern Ocean since 2015. This shift has weakened upper-ocean stratification, coinciding with a dramatic decline in Antarctic sea ice coverage. Additionally, rising salinity facilitated the reemergence of the Maud Rise polynya in the Weddell Sea, a phenomenon last observed in the mid-1970s. Crucially, we demonstrate that satellites can now monitor these changes in real time, providing essential evidence of the Southern Ocean’s potential transition toward persistently reduced sea ice coverage.”

I love how in the very first line, the earlier freshening (decreased salinity) of the polar Southern Ocean is described as “an expected response to a warming climate”. This is to demonstrate how well they understand what happens as the Earth warms, they knew it was going to freshen …

… but then they failed to mention that the increase in salinity post-2015 is an unexpected change that was unforeseen by either climate numerologists or computer haruspicy. But to be sure, they’ll gladly tell us what the climate will be like in 2100 AD.

In any case, let’s translate the actual science: For decades, the surface of the polar Southern Ocean (south of 50°S) was getting fresher—a little less salty—thanks to melting ice and increased precipitation, which the climate modelers assured us was exactly what a warming world would do. But then, around 2015, the trend did a U-turn. Suddenly, the surface started getting saltier, not fresher, and sea ice coverage dropped like a rock. The study’s main points? Satellites are now good enough to watch these swings in real time, and the ocean’s surface salinity is a lot more jumpy than either the models or the scientists predicted.

The media, meanwhile, went straight from “salinity trend reversal” to “ocean current reversal” to “climate system collapse.” It’s like watching a game of telephone played by people who skipped science class and majored in panic. But don’t worry, we’re assured it’s legit because bne IntelliNews said the study “was confirmed by Spanish marine scientists at El Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) in Barcelona”.

Discouragingly, it’s not just the media. Even the scientists at the aforementioned Spanish Ocean Sciences Institute managed to headline their press release “Major reversal in ocean circulation detected,” despite the fact that the study didn’t detect any such thing. Antonio Turiel, ICM-CSIC researcher and co-author of the study, even said:

“We are witnessing a true reversal of ocean circulation in the Southern Hemisphere—something we’ve never seen before. While the world is debating the potential collapse of the AMOC [Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation] in the North Atlantic, we’re seeing that the SMOC [Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation] is not just weakening, but has reversed. This could have unprecedented global climate impacts.”

YIKES! EVERYONE PANIC!

Want to know the kicker? I mean, other than the fact that neither “reversal” nor “SMOC” are even mentioned in the study?

This isn’t even the first time it’s happened. Check out the Abstract again. The study itself notes that the Maud Rise polynya—a big seasonal hole in the sea ice—was visible in the 1970s under similar conditions, and is currently visible again. But you wouldn’t know that from the headlines, which prefer to treat every wiggle in the data as a sign of imminent doom.

The real lesson here is the one my grandmother Dorothy Greene, an amazing woman, handed down to her descendants:

“You can believe half of what you read, a quarter of what you hear …

… and an eighth of what you say.”

Although for popular reports of climate science, you might want to divide by sixteen. The next time you see “catastrophic tipping point” in the news, do yourself a favor—find the actual study, read the abstract, and remember that in climate science, as in life, reality is usually a lot less dramatic than the press release.

My warmest wishes to everyone for crisp mountain mornings, or warm summer evenings, or sunlight far-reaching on the sea, the best of whatever you dream to you all,

w.

Yep. I’ll say it again: When you comment, please quote the exact words you are discussing. I can defend my words. I can’t defend your unclear claims as to what I said.

 

[Ellipse]

According to studies, the AMOC is at its lowest speed since 1 000 years.

Here is its speed since 2004:



Study of stalagmites in caves reveal the AMOC already collapsed at least 25 times during last ice age.



Also according to the study, at the time, the temperature of Greenland has dropped by 7°C in only 10 years. When the AMOC came back, temperatures came back just as fast.





A recent Dutch study from June 11 2025 anticipate a 80% collapse of the AMOC.

Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC-induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea-ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day-to-day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent on both the AMOC strength and the emission scenario.

Source : https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL114611

Outcome:

• More than 60 days of frost in Paris
• -48°C (-54°F) at Oslo in Norway
• The ice cap reaches as far as the Netherlands
• In February the ice pack touches the coast of Scotland, perhaps even further
• Monsoon stop
• Floods in other areas
• More violents tornados in the US

Others question which arise if the heat redistribution is stopped:
- What about summers? More heat pikes?
- What about the South temperature as the heat is no evacuated?

Un effondrement de la circulation océanique atlantique pourrait entraîner des températures polaires en Europe

ANALYSE. Une étude néerlandaise estime que, en cas d’arrêt de l’AMOC, la circulation océanique qui régule le climat mondial et européen, le nord-ouest du Vieux Continent connaîtrait des températures hivernales chutant par endroits de 15 °C.

www.lemonde.fr

Le possible effondrement de la circulation océanique atlantique, régulant le climat, inquiète les scientifiques

L’AMOC, qui contribue à maintenir un climat doux en Europe, des pluies dans les tropiques et qui stocke du CO₂, devrait ralentir, et pourrait même s’arrêter, en raison du dérèglement climatique.

www.lemonde.fr

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

 

[Kadam303]

just a hypothesis, maybe earth rotation speeding up, making days shorter also have something to do with SMOC and AMOC.

Earth Is Spinning Faster and Days Are Getting Shorter, for Now

The planet’s rotation fluctuates as it travels around the sun, and measurements suggest we’re losing more than a millisecond during the long days of summer.

www.nytimes.com

 

[XPan]

I think the most obvious contributing factor may be the changing jet-streams and precipitation belts changing locations, which results in a lot of flooding in areas like Spain and others.

In the case or Northern Spain/Southern France, it wasn't a change of the jet stream, but a shallow "cut-off" low with instability in the middle atmosphere. Anything that spells slightly cooler air masse at greater hight (which is a great trigger for T-storms) - especially in summer and autumn in the Mediterranean Sea region, is prone to create torrential rainfalls due to intense thunderstorms. The T-storms where also fed from the moist, warm air over the sea, giving them even more fuel. I noticed (at the most) 6 hour rainfalls up to 100 mm in some spots.

 

[Kadam303]

i love this forum :) just sayin