The Black Death

[jcsmalz]

I propose we send the question to Mike Baillie. Can anybody find an email address?

Added: I sent him a message on academia. If he responds, I'll send him the question.

I found his email address:
m.baillie@qub.ac.uk

Mike Baillie, Queen's University, Belfast.

I thought of that a couple days ago and was going to email him but Wikipedia says that he died in 2023.

No harm in sending the message anyway. Maybe a colleague is handling the account.

I don't suppose a dendrochronologist who worked with Baille might be kicking around. I will look into it this week.

Thanks to both of you, I really appreciate it!

 

[jcsmalz]

Alright, my friend has found where I misinterpreted the text. The middle of the thirteenth century is 1250, not 1350. Now it makes perfect sense.

This is something I mix up quite often and I will remember this moving forward. I apologize for disturbing everyone.

 

[palestine]

Hello,

About a month ago, I wanted to learn more about the plague that struck Europe around 1347.

There are several threads on the forum that address this topic:

The Black Death
The Black Death revisited
New Light on the Black Death, The Cosmic Connection by Mike Baillie

The first two links concern very different aspects of the plague, and the last thread is dedicated to the book written by Mike Baillie – "New light on the black death - The cosmic connection" – so I am taking the liberty of posting a new thread in the "earth changes" section dedicated to related aspects: measurements, dates, sequence, comets, etc.

---

I know that much has been said about the plague of 1347, but upon closer examination of the matter, it seems to me that (for example), the entire sequence could benefit from additional insights.

For example, in studying the case, I haven't been able to determine where and when the plague started. There are many accounts, here and there—but it seems to me there's no definitive answer.

For instance, I'd like to know if there was one comet, or several... Did a large comet break into several pieces, striking multiple locations simultaneously?

Mike Baillie explains that considering a single event in 1347 wouldn't account for the entirety of a phenomenon that spanned several decades.

The date of 1347 refers to an article written by Laura, which probably constitutes the most precise data we have—if we proceed with a scientific mindset (AKA "I want details"): The comet of the black death: Comet Negra, 1347

There is no other source (to my knowledge) that analyzes the plague with such precision.

I would have liked to proceed as Laura did—for events that would have occurred earlier. This therefore falls under the hypothesis of additional comets. However, we don't really have any dates (or anything else).

Similarly, in trying to trace the origin of the plague, I encountered obstacles: some sources mention the plague very early on. Others explain that it spread all at once. And so on. And then, also, the mainstream explanation of a phenomenon "carried by rats" (or "Genoese ships") sometimes intertwines with the comet theory, in the sense that even in the comet scenario, we observe a propagation phenomenon, delimited country by country. If a large comet had fragmented into several pieces, there would be several simultaneous foci. The "South-North propagation" pattern (for example) would cease to make sense.

Here is an example of something that we can find:

Origin of Black Death finally found in bacteria from Kyrgyzstan graves

DNA from plague bacteria has been identified in graves from 1338 in Kyrgyzstan, and these pathogens appear to be the ancestors of those that caused the Black Death

"The internet" phenomenon makes it so that when we leave the forum to dig into the wild, there is a bit of everything. I may be able to find an origin at 1300 if I search a little bit. At some point, it becomes impractical.

Below, I'll share some information I've been able to gather on this subject! I am doing a "gross" recap.

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FOREGROUND

https://www.sott.net/article/272057-The-comet-of-the-black-death-Comet-Negra-1347

The Comet of the Black Death is said to have coincided with the great plague, the "Black Death," that killed half the population of Europe from 1346 to 1350.

The plague is thought to have originated in Central Asia and, transmitted by fleas on rats, been carried along the Silk Road into Europe.

https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

China, where the Black Death is said to have originated, lost around half of its entire population (going from around 123 million to around 65 million)

DEATH RATE
https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

the Black Death, one of the most deadly pandemics in human history, said to have killed possibly two thirds of the entire population of Europe, not to mention millions all over the planet

https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

In Mediterranean Europe and Italy, the South of France and Spain, where the plague ran for about four years consecutively, it was probably closer to 70% to 75% of the total population

In Germany and England it was probably closer to 20%. Northeastern Germany, Bohemia, Poland and Hungary are believed to have suffered less for some reason

There are no estimates available for Russia or the Balkans

Africa lost approximately 1/8th of its population

Gunnar Karlsson ...) pointed out that the Black Death killed between half and two-thirds of the population of Iceland

So, the main stream theory is : a plague, originating in Central Asia, carried by rats.

But.

https://www.sott.net/article/272057-The-comet-of-the-black-death-Comet-Negra-1347

There are other theories, too, about the origin and spread of the Black Death. One says that a comet or fragments of a comet precipitated the Black Death.

https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

probably wasn't Bubonic Plague but was rather Death By Comet(s)!

A comet & a plague.

EDIT: celestial bodies sometimes carry foreign material (viruses).

In addition :

https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

earthquakes, comets, rains of death and fire, corrupted atmosphere, and death on a scale that is almost unimaginable

Event, January 1348, « Corruption of the atmosphere »
https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

There are, as it happens, four occasions in the last 1500 years where scientists can confidently link dated layers of ammonium in Greenland ice to high-energy atmospheric interactions with objects coming from space: 539, 626, 1014, and 1908 - the Tunguska event. In short, there is a connection between ammonium in the ice cores and extra-terrestrial bombardment of the surface of the earth.

Baillie presents the research in this book showing that the exact same signature is present at the time of the Black Death in both the tree rings and in the ice cores

« Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society » - « An Interdisciplinary Approach » - 2007
Chapter 5 – M. G. L. Baillie - « Tree-Rings Indicate Global Environmental Downturns that could have been Caused by Comet Debris »

the ammonium signal in the ice-cores is directly connected to an earthquake that occurred on January 25th, 1348 - and Baillie discovers that there was a 14th century writer who wrote that the plague was a "corruption of the atmosphere" that came from this earthquake!

But was it an earthquake ?

https://www.sott.net/article/145683-Book-Review-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-by-Mike-Baillie

The point of this is that there is almost no way to monitor whether or not any given disaster/catastrophe is definitively an impact as opposed to a violent earthquake.

In short, (...) some well-known historical earthquakes could very well have been impact events

It’s not that easy :

Baillie cites contemporary evidence …) from around the globe that indicate that the earth was, indeed, subjected to bombardment from space during the 14th century and that this may very well have been not only the cause of the 25 January 1348 earthquake

As it happens, in the 1340s there was a veritable rash of earthquakes

The « corruption of the atmosphere » may be a hint :

if this oft-cited earthquake was, in reality, the result of cometary impacts then the corrupted air could be from one or two causes: high-energy chemical transformations in the atmosphere or outgassings from the earth itself

Long story short, « a corrupted atmosphere » would better relate to comets, rather than earthquakes :

There is a large body of material from that period which consistently points to a "corrupted atmosphere," breathe the air and you die", and somehow, the ocean was involved as well as earthquakes and comets and fireballs in the sky

But earthquakes and comets are still related :

a series of earthquakes at the time that may have been caused by cometary impacts

So, let’s focus on comets. A single one, many smaller (fragmentation). When did it happen ?

There is few data available, but I was able to find out the following bit :
https://www.sott.net/article/228189-New-Light-on-the-Black-Death-The-Viral-and-Cosmic-Connection

The Black Death moved relentlessly northwards through Europe like a giant wave. Its progress was very rapid in the early stages, from December 1347 to June 1348, when it spread through Italy and France, Spain and the Balkans. Crossing the Alps and Pyrenees, it eventually reached Sweden, Norway, and the Baltic by December 1350

December 1347, it’s already « on », meaning that the comet / comets already hit.

"Earth changes and the human-cosmic connection"

Virus-carrying meteoric material might also explain why Justinian’s plague began just four years after a theorized massive overhead cometary explosion in 536 AD, which produced an 18-month-long dust veil, and why the Black Death in 1347 was preceded by intense cometary activity

That’s what would be of interest.

https://www.graphicnews.com/en/pages/06357/comet-plague

In the case of the sixth century plague, climate changes could have been caused by five comets recorded in the historical literature between 530 and 542. Another five comets were recorded in the decade leading up to the beginning of the Black Death in 1347

So this comes from Mike Baillie’s book / observations: five comets, during the decade leading up to 1347.

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I'm currently studying ice cores, tree rings, to see if it's possible to detect impacts. It's a very risky undertaking. Each set show peaks in different locations.

It's extremely difficult to find a match between the various existing sets.

I could post ten sequences of these samples here, and we'd each have ten different dates.

As of now, I'm not knowledgeable enough about the study of chemical markers to be able to post this with certainty. For tree rings (and ice cores too), it's very complicated: there are growth cycles that can be mistaken for cometary events (because the curve suddenly go downwards).

I would be happy to post some, if there are people able to interpret those plots. In addition, I am doing small (very small!) progress with those. I can see a couple of things, but this is so insignificant as of now that I prefer not to post anything. So, a call for dendrochronologists, out there

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That's all I could gather.


Comments, criticisms, additions—all welcome!

Oh, yes: was the plague an "anthropocosmic" event?

Behind the Headlines: Earth changes in an electric universe: Is climate change really man-made?

Pierre: When you look at historic records, for example the period of time between the fall of the Roman empire, 6th century AD and the black death, 14th century AD, if you remove the blank where there was almost no activity in Europe that lasted about three centuries, it means that in about four centuries civilization in Europe managed to recover, develop and trigger one more cycle of destruction because of probably the crusades, the inquisition and other abuses of this kind. So it gives you an idea of the situation. In only a few centuries, managed to recreate everything and to trigger the high magnitude of destruction.

 

[palestine]

Some additional material, potentially relating:

°
Laura KNIGHT-JADCZYK - "THE APOCALYPSE - Comets, Asteroids and Cyclical Catastrophes"

1321-68 – O-chia District, China: ‘Iron rain’ kills people, animals, damages house.

Point of interest: comets at 1321 (China)

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°
Title: Meteorite falls in China and some related human casualty events
Authors: Yau, K., Weissman, P., & Yeomans, D.
Journal: Meteoritics (ISSN 0026-1114), vol. 29, no. 6, p. 864-871

This article is a bout oral mentions of comets, in China. Seems the author literally "counted" the occurrences and made a chart out of it.

Point of interest: comets already in 1300 (China)

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°
Exodus to Arthur : catastrophic encounters with comets

What, we might ask, was the cause of the great earthquake that was felt throughout England in AD 1320?

Point of interest: earthquake in UK, 1320 (cometary related? Etc)

 

[palestine]

There is more info here for the interested reader:
Mass Extinctions, Evolutionary Leaps, and the Virus-Information Connection

For instance:

if the Black Death was a space borne virus a certain drop down patchiness should be expected, as well as a geographic diffusion pattern following dominant winds:

Moreover, the pattern of infection appears to travel the course of prevailing winds […] This does not accord with straightforward infection via a rodent/flea carrier as is conventional to assume.

Indeed, the yearly spread map of the Black Death reveals concentric circle centered on the Mediterranean Sea and spreading evenly in all direction. It suggests that the pathogen initially descended from the atmosphere somewhere in the Mediterranean Sea and was subsequently spread by the winds:

© Baillie
Contours of the spread of the Black Death

... Italy might even have been the first country affected in the world since the alleged migration from Crimea to Italy doesn’t stand factual scrutiny

In conclusion, the epidemics that ravaged Europe were not bubonic plague but very probably a hemorrhagic virus, related to smallpox. The pathogen was not carried by rats but airborne disseminated from high atmosphere after a cometary explosion. The Black Death pandemic was one aspect of a series of cometary-induced cataclysms, including earthquakes that brought its knees the medieval European civilization.

 

[axj]

© Baillie
Contours of the spread of the Black Death

It is interesting that the Black Death was basically centered on Italy (Vatican), which might be a clue as to who primarily attracted it through its actions (inquisition, crusades, phantom years scam, etc.).

 

[palestine]

It is interesting that the Black Death was basically centered on Italy (Vatican), which might be a clue as to who primarily attracted it through its actions (inquisition, crusades, phantom years scam, etc.).

I did some research and it's still ongoing. I must explain:

Generally speaking, there are mentions, here and there, of the chemical markers indicating a cometary impact. Pierre mentions several, and Mike Baillie does so, too. A recurring one has been "NO3+S+CL+NH4" (nitrate/nitric acid, sulfur/sulfate, chlorine/chloride, ammonium). I have been checking a bit if there were ice cores (and others), showing those four, simultaenously. There are, but each ice core shows you different dates.

I would like to do that and see if something comes out. This is a long and interesting work. There are other markers that I would like to check.

For example, I can find one here:

But is it really relating to 1247? Impossible for me to say. To tell you, the above is framed into the following:

(I am sorry that I wanted to preserve readability so it does not go back as far as 1250)

Here, you can see a problem: the peak close to 1350 (cometa nigra?) has the blue line (Cl) going down instead of a peak. Am I, then, to select the four markers together, or three of those?

I need to refine my reading skills fo those cores

Here is another example of the alignment of the four markers (another lambda core):

I am a bit fishing into the wild then.

There are sun cycles and other cycles that can be missunderstood for events. A 70-year cycle sometimes appears and messes up with the reading.

It has been difficult for me than to decide what to keep (for example). Ultimately I am not yet able to decide anything. Very frustrating!

A sentence from Mike Baillie that I've quoted shows me that the time span around the Black death had many events.

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So I am checking a bit. And starting with 1347, what I see it's that the years 1200 have been rich in peaks and bumps. Many of those may be sun-related or else, so I am preventing myself from jumping to conclusions. It may have been "normal times" after all.

Overall, what I see is that 1200 to 1300 shows great turmoil. This is very odd. This century seems to have been marked by some events. But I am yet not skilled enough to assert this with certainty. What comes out clearly is that the events surrounding the Black death - so let's say 1300 to 1350 - would be nothing in comparison. That the events of 1300 to 1350 would be just a "natural continuity" of a very troubled century. As stated, I am not sure. I mean, I am really not sure, and that's what a first reading of the cores shows me. I may be missunderstanding those peaks, during the 1200 century, with normal things. If not, there were big events too, there.

I noticed a post, on the Cosmic Tusk, that I cannot find back as of yet, stating of a Minimum of some sort, for the years 1200. this would explain all those events.

And so, puzzled by the period before 1300.

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Out of interest, let me post, here, a core analyzing the discrepancy of volcanic and non-volcanic SO4:

source:

Data, icesamples and software
Data - icesamples - software – University of Copenhagen

NGRIP SO4 data from the NGRIP 1996 main core and the NGRIP 2000 S6 shallow core
https://www.iceandclimate.nbi.ku.dk/data/2012-12-03_NGRIP_SO4_5cm_Plummet_et_al_CP_2012.txt

YEAR	VOLCANIC	NON-VOLCANIC	DISCREPANCY
1992,194	0,39	1,71	1,32
1992,083	0,41	1,7	1,29
1990,226	0,33	1,93	1,6
1989,958	0,53	1,95	1,42
1987,417	1,35	2,38	1,03
1986,958	0,3	2,41	2,11
1931,391	0,53	2,36	1,83
1931,083	0,71	2,41	1,7
1930,883	0,8	2,39	1,59
1912,283	0,92	2,64	1,72
1912,083	1,22	2,66	1,44
1911,883	1,27	2,62	1,35
1907,883	1,17	2,22	1,05
1885,639	0,32	1,47	1,15
1885,416	0,55	1,48	0,93
1884,208	0,72	1,41	0,69
1883,527	0,28	1,34	1,06
1873,916	0,41	1,07	0,66
1856,447	0,28	1,18	0,9
1854,5	0,48	1,2	0,72
1846,639	0,45	1,13	0,68
1837,81	0,54	1,35	0,81
1831,383	0,73	1,38	0,65
1823,75	0,43	1,49	1,06
1817,639	0,47	1,46	0,99
1816,083	0,86	1,49	0,63
1811,512	0,63	1,41	0,78
1798,083	0,64	1,3	0,66
1797,683	0,34	1,29	0,95
1796,901	0,31	1,27	0,96
1784,458	0,28	1,34	1,06
1784,208	0,37	1,35	0,98
1767,083	0,53	1,2	0,67
1766,194	0,64	1,23	0,59
1761,654	0,37	1,17	0,8
1761,369	0,32	1,16	0,84
1756,708	0,21	1,07	0,86
1756,458	0,49	1,07	0,58
1739,75	0,54	1,47	0,93
1725,083	0,58	1,64	1,06
1722,208	0,47	1,68	1,21
1720,083	0,14	1,72	1,58
1719,512	0,29	1,71	1,42
1708,512	0,24	1,55	1,31
1707,458	0,43	1,55	1,12
1706,94	0,93	1,55	0,62
1697,708	0,54	1,26	0,72
1693,333	0,45	1,15	0,7
1667,512	0,36	1,52	1,16
1640,94	0,29	1,72	1,43
1638,416	1,06	1,71	0,65
1638,194	0,91	1,71	0,8
1637,583	0,29	1,72	1,43
1620,208	0,35	1,46	1,11
1619,94	0,38	1,47	1,09
1619,369	0,82	1,45	0,63
1619,083	0,55	1,43	0,88
1603,458	0,49	1,57	1,08
1602,94	0,91	1,57	0,66
1585,958	1,12	1,71	0,59
1567,369	0,55	1,4	0,85
1554,083	0,37	1,3	0,93
1537,333	0,3	1,27	0,97
1526,75	0,29	1,31	1,02
1513,333	0,4	1,34	0,94
1512,583	0,76	1,34	0,58
1512,333	0,37	1,34	0,97
1502,833	0,85	1,55	0,7
1502,583	0,75	1,56	0,81
1502,333	0,84	1,56	0,72
1477,94	0,59	1,71	1,12
1476,333	0,41	1,7	1,29
1455,226	0,8	1,73	0,93
1454,708	1,09	1,74	0,65
1441,775	0,38	1,7	1,32
1408,226	0,27	1,73	1,46
1389,708	1,11	1,85	0,74
1346,958	0,7	1,55	0,85
1344,861	0,86	1,63	0,77
1341,083	1,04	1,73	0,69
1329,458	0,49	1,7	1,21
1289,75	0,44	1,71	1,27
1288,583	1,07	1,71	0,64
1286,94	0,99	1,65	0,66
1286,654	0,27	1,65	1,38
1277,75	0,84	1,6	0,76
1262,583	0,73	1,59	0,86
1260,708	0,44	1,58	1,14
1258,333	0,61	1,62	1,01
1258,083	0,64	1,61	0,97
1232,369	1,13	1,86	0,73
1232,083	1,26	1,85	0,59
1229,797	0,81	1,85	1,04
1197,654	1,03	1,85	0,82
1197,083	0,51	1,83	1,32
1190,208	0,36	1,6	1,24
1189,94	1	1,58	0,58
1188,861	0,68	1,59	0,91
1188,194	0,69	1,6	0,91
1167,369	0,66	1,52	0,86
1134,708	0,66	1,79	1,13
1134,458	0,62	1,8	1,18
1133,983	0,22	1,82	1,6
1061,283	0,93	1,89	0,96
1054,512	0,3	1,92	1,62
1053,94	0,49	1,92	1,43
1043,833	1,13	1,79	0,66
1026,75	0,62	1,8	1,18
1026,416	0,92	1,79	0,87
1025,797	0,68	1,76	1,08
1024,083	0,56	1,76	1,2
1023,75	0,37	1,76	1,39
1023,416	0,87	1,77	0,9
1013,797	0,44	1,84	1,4
997,75	1,35	1,99	0,64
997,416	0,56	1,99	1,43
996,283	0,61	1,98	1,37
993,94	0,58	1,99	1,41
993,083	0,6	1,99	1,39
974,654	0,71	1,91	1,2
974,083	0,31	1,9	1,59
973,797	0,65	1,92	1,27
973,226	0,46	1,92	1,46
952,583	0,55	1,96	1,41
941,333	1,32	1,96	0,64
940,797	1,15	1,94	0,79
932,916	1,08	1,94	0,86
932,583	1,04	1,95	0,91
901,458	0,94	1,87	0,93
901,208	0,47	1,88	1,41
898,708	0,61	1,86	1,25
893,512	1,19	1,79	0,6
892,94	0,37	1,81	1,44
872,654	0,58	1,92	1,34
838,333	0,71	2,4	1,69
838,083	0,24	2,38	2,14
837,797	0,55	2,37	1,82
830,183	1,03	2,3	1,27
817,083	1,4	2,32	0,92
816,797	1,4	2,32	0,92
816,512	1,68	2,31	0,63
815,94	1,11	2,3	1,19
814,797	1,6	2,37	0,77
813,654	1,07	2,34	1,27
794,416	0,56	2,1	1,54
793,75	0,94	2,13	1,19
793,083	0,3	2,14	1,84
792,75	0,79	2,13	1,34
689,333	0,66	1,72	1,06
676,369	0,73	1,65	0,92
674,226	1,01	1,62	0,61
664,797	0,53	1,51	0,98
663,94	0,87	1,47	0,6
651,083	0,77	1,52	0,75
626,708	0,6	1,4	0,8
621,283	0,79	1,48	0,69
601,226	0,43	1,52	1,09
600,81	0,29	1,51	1,22
590,083	0,55	1,48	0,93
589,226	0,57	1,48	0,91
588,883	0,71	1,49	0,78
583,416	0,47	1,51	1,04
575,75	0,79	1,51	0,72
568,654	0,43	1,6	1,17
566,94	0,35	1,61	1,26
536,226	1,16	1,92	0,76
535,654	1,03	1,95	0,92
534,797	1,14	1,94	0,8
532,75	0,95	1,88	0,93
532,416	0,8	1,88	1,08
532,083	0,69	1,89	1,2
531,512	1,25	1,88	0,63
496,512	1,25	1,89	0,64
442,583	0,18	1,82	1,64
426,654	0,68	1,72	1,04
425,583	0,33	1,72	1,39
425,083	0,26	1,72	1,46
404,512	0,73	1,57	0,84
389,369	0,57	1,51	0,94
389,083	0,45	1,51	1,06
388,083	0,36	1,52	1,16
379,583	0,42	1,44	1,02
369,883	0,79	1,49	0,7
359,226	0,62	1,57	0,95
358,369	0,31	1,57	1,26
325,75	0,1	1,76	1,66
324,833	0,58	1,76	1,18
324,583	0,55	1,77	1,22
235,583	0,91	1,75	0,84
235,25	0,71	1,75	1,04
231,194	0,36	1,84	1,48

The original file is much bigger than the above. I simply ticked all the dates who had a higher non-volcanic than volcanic, so as to keep the dates where there was more SO4 that a volcano produced (hinting at a different source).

This is of course very hazardous, so I am posting this out of curiosity.

It seems that the Cosmic Tusk has been doing a lot of those works. But their forum is not accessible any more.

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Back to your comment about Italy & the plague, I would have pictured Greece as being at the center of the map:

Or Albania?

Hmmm who, then, was the "bloody ruler" at the time? I would be tempted to follow your idea, so that it was from Italy, that a strong imperial mindset was manifesting. No Greeks? Initially, I would have thought of France - "all those Croisades and Franks". But Italy stands out. A bit of history will help me right here.

In addition - what to do with "China" (Eastern aspect of the plague)? Was there a plague, there, too?