The clock for the Hayward Fault (California) is ticking...

Ellipse

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
I was not award of the 140 years cycle. Rather concerning, especially with the C's predictions:

The Hawyard Fault runs along the foot of the East Bay hills, something that all residents of the Bay Area, and the East Bay in particular, should know. Its last major earthquake occured on October 21st, 1868, destroying downtown Hayward, killing 5 people and, injuring 30. With an estimated magnitude of 6.8 it caused damage throughout the area. San Francisco alone suffered $350,000 in property damage. It was considered the "Great Earthquake" until 1906.

Scientists have been studying the past earthquakes on the Hayward fault. They have found that the most recent 5 major earthquakes happened on average every 140 years. Since it has been more than 144 years since the last major earthquake, the clock is ticking. It is very likely that the Hayward fault will rupture and produce a significant earthquake within the next 30 years.

The Hayward fault is not our only fault. It is a member of the San Andreas Fault system that runs from the Gulf of California in the south, to Cape Mendocino in the north. The San Andreas Fault system forms the boundary between the North American and the Pacific tectonic plates. In the Greater Bay Area, it San Andreas, which continues north up the peninsula, has several branches. Starting in the south near Hollister, the Calaveras Fault branches off to run east of San Jose and continue through Pleasanton and Danville toward Walnut Creek. Near San Jose the Hayward Fault branches off the Calaveras and continues north along the foot of the East Bay Hills. For residents of the East Bay, the Hayward fault is of particular concern because it runs through many cities such as San Jose, Fremont, Hayward, San Leandro, Oakland, Berkeley, El Cerrito and Richmond. Today, more than 2.4 million people live close to the fault and are at great risk when the next significant earthquake occurs.
Source: http://seismo.berkeley.edu/hayward/hayward_fault.html
 

casper

The Living Force
C's in 1994 gave predictions regarding California (how time flies!).
These are some of the things we can do in advance (if ...?):


Before the earthquake
There are several things you can do before the earthquake to be as
better prepared to protect yourself, your family and your property:
-Fix Faulty electrical wiring, gas and water supply
tubes.
If possible, install flexible pipes for gas and water to
order to avoid cracking.
-Hold Large and heavy objects on lower shelves. Good
attach high, shallow cabinets and shelves, mirrors and frames
pictures on the walls.
- Prevent the movement of mobile (on wheels) parts
furniture (TV and computer tables, etc.) and technical
equipment (thermal storage room heaters, air conditioners, etc.).
- Bottles, glass, porcelain and other fragile objects must be kept in
low closed cabinets. The locks will prevent
content of the closet.
If possible, check the condition of the ground. If the foundations are good,
the less likely that the house will be damaged.
-Find "Safe" places in each room sturdy table or carrier
wall that will serve as a shelter during an earthquake.
- Close at hand save a flashlight, battery-powered radio,
whistle and first aid kit.
Always keep certain supplies of food and beverages (primarily
water).
-With Your family members specify two meeting places
after the earthquake. First, in the vicinity of the house (on some open surface), and
another outside the neighborhood (in case you are not able to reach
house). Everyone in the family needs to know the location and address of the meeting.


DURING EARTHQUAKE
Minimum navigate during an earthquake. Try the shortest way
to get to the nearest safe location. Stay indoors until the shaking is not
stop, and then you calmly go out into open space away
of buildings. At least for the children try to bring warm clothing
items and blankets.
Carry documents, money and medicines for sick family members.
If possible, bring first aid and food and water. Before
leaving the house do not neglect to turn off gas, electricity and water
.
If you are indoors:
Hide under a solid table or bench or with a load-bearing wall. If there is no
table nearby, protect your face and head with his hands and onto your angle
load bearing wall. Stay away from glass, windows, outside doors and
exterior walls, and anything that could fall, such as lighting
body or furniture.
If you are in bed when an earthquake begins, stay there, and wait
Protect your head with a pillow, unless you are under difficult lighting
body that could fall. In that case, move to
the nearest safe place.
Get under the door frame only if you know that it is a
strong bearing wall.
Stay indoors until the tremors completely
calm down and then go out into the open. Most injuries during earthquakes
happens when people frantically running out onto the open space. People
usually injure falling objects or broken installations
(Building materials, glass windows or doors, electrical cables,
gas pipes ...)
By no means is do not use the elevator.
If you are outdoors:
Stay in the open. Move away from buildings, lampposts,
trees ...
If you are in a vehicle:
Stop quickly, but safely, and stay in the vehicle. Avoid
stopping near or under buildings, trees, overpasses and lighting
pillars. Be careful,
after the earthquake could damage
roads, overpasses, bridges. Park the vehicle over a wide area
as not to disrupt the passage of major official vehicles. Your vehicle
it should not interfere in the use of a fire hydrant.
If you are under the rubble:
Do not light matches or lighters. The movement to a minimum.
Cover your mouth with a tissue or part of clothing.
Try to stay calm and tap the pipe or wall
so that rescuers can find you. Use a whistle,
if you have one. Do not shout if you do not have to
shouting can cause
inhalation of dangerous amounts of dust.


AFTER EARTHQUAKE
Be prepared for re tremors. Subsequent earthquakes
weaker intensity than the main shock, but are dangerous because they can
cause additional damage to already damaged buildings.
The safest is to remain outdoors until it is determined that
building safe.
Remain calm and patient. Review the injured and give first
assistance to injured persons. Inform the emergency services that have
wounded. Follow radio station to hear the news and instructions
competent services.
Carefully follow the signs for alerting. Provide competent services
information through mass media (TV and radio).
If you declare evacuation or sheltering, follow the
the instructions.
Ensure pets.
 

Mr. Premise

The Living Force
Thanks for the reminder, Ellipse :lol: I'm heading out there today. Seriously though, it is scary. I have many loved ones living within a few miles of they Hayward fault. Between that and the drought, I keep telling them to sell their ridiculously overpriced houses and get out while they can but they love it too much.

I always think about the Big One whenever I'm driving over one of the bridges or going under the bay on the BART train.
 

domi

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Mr. Premise said:
Thanks for the reminder, Ellipse :lol: I'm heading out there today. Seriously though, it is scary. I have many loved ones living within a few miles of they Hayward fault. Between that and the drought, I keep telling them to sell their ridiculously overpriced houses

Keep me in mind for that listing referral. ;-)

Mr. Premise said:
and get out while they can but they love it too much.

The fact of the matter is that they haven't lived through any earthquake that is truly devastating so they have a false sense of security.
The Loma Prieta one from 1989 was strong but it didn't affect most people personally except maybe a broken chimney stack - very common - and things being shaken off shelves and furniture moving.

I can understand they like living where they live with nice weather, well paying jobs, etc. but it truly is a matter of time before a big shaker does some serious damage.

People also are unaware of historical events like for example massive flooding that occurred in the past in CA:
_http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2011/01/20/20greenwire-200-year-flood-in-calif-more-devastating-than-80143.html?pagewanted=all
_http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe/?page=1

ARkStorm report: http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/

I have advised people about purchasing in certain areas that would be flood prone but honestly that information does not register with them and is completely ignored.
I've had only one client who took an earthquake workshop and then had his house retrofitted with shear walls, strengthening brackets, etc. but he was an exception.
 

Mr. Premise

The Living Force
My family members had their houses retrofitted before Loma Prieta, so that was good. I think the real earthquake disaster in this country will be if there's a big one on the New Madrid fault, or on the east coast. Those buildings are not ready for that.
 

NormaRegula

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
I live in N. California and have been through a few small earthquakes and Loma Prieta. I've done what I can to prepare for a major earthquake and when it happens (and it's only a matter of time given the terrain) I can only hope that I'll survive as well as my family and friends.

Family members…who love visiting me in California because of the weather and its natural beauty…go on and on about how expensive housing is here and how can I not worry about those awful earthquakes. I shrug my shoulders and note that Mother Nature may get us all in the end. 2 of my siblings live in the Mid-West in tornado country, while the other 2 have experienced flooding and Hurricanes in the Upstate NY and NYC area. My husband and I live in a relatively modest home for our income bracket, so we won't be out a lot of money if it is destroyed in a major earthquake...hopefully with us not in it.

What good will excessive worrying do? Just carry on, making sure you have a plan of action when something of magnitude happens…not necessarily an earthquake. :)
 

NormaRegula

SuperModerator
Moderator
FOTCM Member
Mr. Premise said:
My family members had their houses retrofitted before Loma Prieta, so that was good. I think the real earthquake disaster in this country will be if there's a big one on the New Madrid fault, or on the east coast. Those buildings are not ready for that.

Agreed.

Also, the Seattle area is not as prepared either.
 

puckster

The Force is Strong With This One
This talk is making me glad I live in the great lakes area, north of Lake Ontario. No quakes of any consequence here.
 

c.a.

The Living Force
FOTCM Member
Apr 18, 2018 USGS
The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault.

The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region.

Get Ready! Analyses of impacts related to the HayWired earthquake scenario include estimates for potential fatalities, injuries, water outages, fires, and other major disruptions. These could potentially include: 800 deaths, 16,000 nonfatal injuries, property and direct business interruption losses of more than $82 billion from from shaking alone.

The USGS and its partners are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

Vacated in 2008...Exist stage Right :whistle:
 
Top Bottom