The Ice Age Cometh! Forget Global Warming!

Paris
This June 1, the thermometer did not exceed 14.2°C in Paris. You have to go back 8 years to find a cooler day in June in the capital (14.0°C on 06/03/2016)!
🌧️


Kitzsteinhorn Austria ski resort operating at 1/3 capacity
Kaprun: OpenSnow Report last updated: Jun 02

Recent Snowfall​

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Altitude at 3029 Meters

What drove Snowball Earth? A drop in a greenhouse gas

Posted by Dave Adalian
June 2, 2024
Screenshot 2024-06-02 at 17-29-52 What drove Snowball Earth A drop in a greenhouse gas.png


Current cloud cover over France
Screenshot 2024-06-02 at 17-26-17 Professional weather forecast.png
 
Here's is something else interesting about the weather in Russia and elsewhere. Despite leading researcher saying that the causes are anthropogenic, what he says is still interesting, because he indicates that there is a clear increase of extreme weather events.

Andrei Kiselev, a leading researcher at the Voyeikov Main Geophysical Observatory in St. Petersburg, climatologist, told on the air of Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda” what has been happening to the climate lately and why weather anomalies have become more frequent.

According to the expert, some time ago there appeared a capacious notion “the climate is nervous”. He pointed out that in this case two factors, namely spontaneous and natural, are added up. Statistics shows that there is a sharp increase in the frequency of weather and climatic phenomena, and this applies to droughts, heavy rains, wind loads and other phenomena that occur all together.

The specialist emphasized that this increase is very significant. According to the statistics of the world insurance agencies, their number has tripled over the last 45 years, and according to the statistics of Roshydromet, compared to the end of the last century, there are at least twice as many anomalies. He specified that we are talking about those cases that caused significant damage to people, the economy or both together.

Kiselev added that such a trend does exist, but each individual event is a localized phenomenon that is more related to some local peculiarities. Nevertheless, he said, the fact that it is happening more and more often is already an anthropogenic factor.
 

mmmmmm
© mbl.isHoltavörðuheiði.

Winter has returned to Iceland!

Officially, summer should have already started in Iceland in late April - at least according to the old Icelandic calendar. But since the beginning of the week, a low-pressure front has brought back the Arctic winter in full force - in June.

Yesterday, Art and Alina travelled to Akureyri to witness an unusual summer storm that unexpectedly hit the North and East of Iceland, blanketing the landscapes with snow and ice just as they were eagerly awaiting summer.
 
Extreme (anomaly) temperature swings in France and elsewhere

Calm in the south this Monday. Rainy front and autumnal coolness in the north. https://meteo-express.com/previsions/pre

View attachment 96946
Return of snow above approximately 2000m in small quantities Tuesday and Wednesday


View attachment 96947
A lull will appear next week on the #orages front, at the cost of cooler and changeable weather.The week promises to be below seasonal norms on average, sometimes by almost 3°C in the north-east.Local minimums below 5°C are possible in the north during the week.Possible return of a more unstable and stormy southwesterly flow for the next weekend or following week.

Meanwhile, in Norilsk in northern Siberia

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G2 Geomagnetic Storm Watch - S2 Radiation Storm Ongoing - Heat Continues In The Southwest U.S.
Oppenheimer Ranch Project

Northern Latitudes and higher elevations are cooling with less than ten days before the Summer Equinox

View attachment 96951

  • At 20:51 UTC (4:51 PM EDT) on June 20, 2024, Earth will experience its annual moment of summer solstice: when the Earth’s north pole is maximally tipped toward the Sun. (Winter solstice for the southern hemisphere.)
  • The last time the solstice was this early in the year, George Washington was serving as the first President of the United States, and the year was 1796.
  • The solstice, on average, will continue getting earlier and earlier every 4 years until 2096, which will be the earliest solstice of the century. Then, that pattern will end. Here’s the science of why.
Ireland and uk are certainly quite cold for this time of the year -today current temp in London is 12 degrees and a cold wind - almost the same in Ireland 13 degrees currently with NNW winds 24 km/h
 
Hello I don't know if it was posted before, some old 1970s scientist about coming ice age
 
Hello I don't know if it was posted before, some old 1970s scientist about coming ice age
How weird that you posted this and on the Best Jokes thread there was the Star Trek joke, featuring Leonard Nimoy...both appeared in my notifications!
 
Valle Nevado
Valle Nevado

Remember the 2022-2023 ski season in North America? Of course you do. The endless powder days, Mammoth Mountain's absurd late-season campaign—it's pretty impossible to forget.

Now, South America is getting its own taste of what could become a mythically deep ski season.

PowderQuest, a guiding company that operates in South America, among other locales, reported yesterday that Ski Portillo, Chile, and Las Leñas, Argentina, had both delayed their official opening dates due to excessive snowfall causing road closures and high avalanche danger.


Thanks to the snowfall earlier this month, Portillo opened earlier than usual, offering skiing and riding on a weekends-only basis throughout June. They managed to open June 1st and June 2nd with stellar conditions, but the back-to-back storms prevented the rest of the pre-season dates.


Las Leñas early season plans were also sidelined. They intended to fire the lifts up today through Sunday for a pre-season launch. However, as the avalanche danger increased to extreme, they, too, had to push back their opening.

Nineteen feet (228 inches) of snow has fallen on Las Leñas' upper mountain so far this season. The ski area now plans to open on June 29th. At Portillo, the story's similar. They tentatively hope to reopen on June 26th and have received thirteen feet (156 inches) of snow since winter began.

Even more snow is expected over the next four days. Our friends at Powderchasers estimate that an additional 2-5 feet will fall across South America through the weekend.

"It's close to the best start we have ever seen in our 25 years guiding here," said PowderQuest's founder, David Owen. "With today's storm rolling in and the forecasted amounts of three to six feet, I'm pretty sure this will be breaking records for June at many ski areas in Chile and Argentina."

South America's ski season started strong in May when Patagonia saw record snowfall. Catedral Alta Patagonia, an Argentinian ski resort, took advantage of the powder and hosted a temporary pre-season opening from May 9th through May 11th, well in advance of its usual start date.

"Locals were calling it 'Magic May,'" said Owen. Then, June arrived, which, Owen explained, "has been non-stop for pretty much all ski areas down here."

Despite the delays at Las Leñas and Portillo, vibes are high. Owen, who's been in contact with his South American team, said, "Everyone is so pumped to have such an early start."

"Huge bases and deep powder is a dream for all of us. Hopefully it continues!" Owen added.
 
+ Thursday's mercury reading was also the second-coldest temperature ever recorded in Tasmania.

Tasmanian lakes freeze over as Central Highlands town of Liawenee plummets to chilly -12.C

1720198950187.pngkake.png

An isolated town Inch-thick ice has formed on lakes in Tasmania's Central Highlands region was the coldest populated place in Australia on Thursday.
In a ranking of Tasmania's lowest recorded temperatures since 1972, Liawenee is mentioned three times: twice in 2020 at -14.C on August 7, and -11.7C on August 10, then again in July 2013 when the area reached -12.2C.
Thursday's mercury reading of -13.5C is the result of a ridge of high pressure sitting over the state with clear skies, which has allowed heat to escape into the atmosphere.
(...)
"Yesterday, a bit of fog that formed on Great Lake that might just be wafting closer to Liawenee at times, was raising the temperature ever so slightly at times," he said.
"As the fog wafts away, the temperature might fall, but it’s been going up and down by about a degree or two over the past three hours."

+ Unprecedented snowfalls buried livestock, threatening about 1 million animals with starvation in one of the region’s coldest winters in decades.

Unprecedented Snowfalls in Argentina 🦙

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The Argentine Rural Confederation (CRA) has described the situation as “dramatic.Enrique Jamieson, president of the Federation of Agricultural Institutions Santa Cruz, highlighted the complexity of the situation, with heavy snowfalls extending across Santa Cruz, affecting about 40,000 cattle and 1 million sheep.

The most-recent snow dumps, ranging from 40 to 60 cm (1.3 to 2 ft) in depth, have rendered pastures inaccessible, endangering cattle and sheep. Efforts are underway to move livestock to areas with less snow to forage or receive supplemental feeding.
Jamieson explained that consistent, early-season snowfalls through April and May had already formed a frozen layer, complicating access to food for the animals. The recent snowfall added additional feet on top of this layer, exacerbating the problem and making it difficult for the animals to reach food.

“Heavy snowfall in Argentina has left livestock and vehicles stranded in the snow.”
Ajay Verma X

“Argentina was hit by heavy snowfall, leaving animals and vehicles stranded. The country's National Meteorological Service had previously issued warnings of an abnormal cold wave affecting 15 provinces.”
ANAND SHUKLA X


 
Whoa!

August 1, 2024 — 12.25pm
High above Antarctica, a polar vortex swirls. When it’s in robust shape, its icy winds swirl in a circular pattern, keeping a ring of freezing weather contained above the frozen continent.

This year, something else is happening. As warmer than average air temperatures have been recorded above Antarctica, the polar vortex has weakened, causing it to lose stability.

Screenshot 2024-08-01 at 09-18-03 Video Loop.png
This year, warmer air temperatures above Antarctica have weakened the polar vortex, pushing icy winds into southern Australia. NIWA Weather

As its circular pattern slackens, its edges have pushed into southern Australia, creating icy conditions and freezing winds.
On Tuesday, Sydney shivered through an apparent temperature of 0.6 degrees, despite recording 7.6 degrees at 7.30am. In Melbourne on Thursday, the temperature plummeted to minus 1 at Avalon Airport at 7.40am.

Climate scientist Dr Martin Jucker, of the University of NSW, said recent warming near the earth’s surface had pushed warmer air into the stratosphere – to an altitude of about 30 kilometres – above Antarctica.

Last month, air temperatures warmed suddenly more than 20 kilometres above eastern Antarctica by about 50 degrees, a phenomenon known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW).

ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders said the phenomenon had never before been observed in winter.

The effects of climate change on global surface temperatures are clear: it was 1.1 degrees higher in the decade between 2011 and 2020 than it was between 1850 and 1900, and greenhouse gas emissions have continued increasing.

However, Jucker said, scientists were yet to establish a link between an SSW and climate change. “Something needs to create those disturbances at the surface first, and that might be impacted by climate change,” he said. “We don’t know.”

The destabilised polar vortex was this week causing unsettled weather over Western Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology’s Michael Efron said.

“It’s had 170 millimetres [of rain] for July, [which is] about their average,” he said.

Screenshot 2024-08-01 at 09-20-34 Sydney Melbourne blasted by Antarctic polar vortex bringing ...png
Along the south-eastern seaboard, a slow-moving high-pressure system over Tasmania was extending a high-pressure ridge over Victoria, resulting in clear skies and light winds overnight, Efron said.

“And so that’s allowing the temperature to plummet across the state, given the absence of that cloud.”

Weatherzone’s Ben Domensino said the atmosphere above eastern Antarctica started to warm abruptly during the middle of July.
“This warming initially started in the polar stratosphere, around 30 to 40 kilometres above eastern Antarctica, but its influence has since filtered down towards the surface in the past fortnight,” he said.

“When the air above Antarctica gets warmer than usual during winter, it can weaken and destabilise the southern hemisphere’s polar vortex. This weakening of the polar vortex causes the westerly winds that flow around Antarctica to expand towards the equator, allowing polar air masses to spread further into the mid-latitudes.”

Southern Australia can expect some marginal relief from icy temperatures over coming days, the bureau says.
Sydney is forecast to be sunny and hit 18 by the weekend. In Melbourne, showers will fall at the weekend and top temperatures of 15 are predicted.

In Perth, showers will ease by the weekend and sunny conditions will again prevail, while Hobart will remain cold and wet.
Get to the heart of what’s happening with climate change and the environment.
 
Mammoth Lakes, California❄️❄️

Palisades Tahoe


The entire western coast of the country is affected by a marked drop in temperatures this evening, as the cold front passes. Only the North-East quarter and a few isolated stations in the South-West are still on the rise, ahead of the stormy deterioration.

 
Lol, it just keeps on coming, battering the Climate narrative as well.


Is summer over at altitude, then? I live at sea level in eastern England (Lincolnshire Fens - flat as a pancake for MILES) and don't get much chance to gain experience of weather at higher elevations..

It's just an unusually cool bout of weather -- warming up this weekend. Summer isn't quite over yet!

It was 39 last weekend during my hike. I almost had to break out the fleece. Nov 1st ski season kind of year?

So I guess climate change isn't that big of a crisis afterall. Hmmm.


Collapse of the Atmosphere

 

mmmm
While plains of Kashmir witnessed rain, higher reaches in Sonamarg received season's first snowfall, officials said. The snowfall followed several days of overcast skies and rain, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures in the Ganderbal district.

The season's first snowfall was recorded at Sonamarg's famous trekking spots, including Vishansar and Nichnai.


The fresh snow and rain have provided relief from the recent heat, with temperatures plummeting across Jammu and Kashmir, including Srinagar. The rain began earlier in the week and continued to soak most parts of the region.

Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif Keng predicts that more snowfall is expected in other higher reaches over the next 24 hours. The Meteorological Department has also forecasted continued cloudy skies with the possibility of more rain, likely to extend through the end of the month.


A search over the intermess reveals that snowfall usually starts in November for this region - so 3 months ahead of normal.
 
Greenland ice sheet update, 2023-2024 season:
Greenland snow counting season is over - a new one begins

Today begins a new season which will be visible September second, and it is a good time to collect the review of the year.

During the year, there were periods with much snow and some with little, occasionally spikes indicating serious dumps, and also periods with much melting. The area above the zero line indicates the total mass gain and the area below the zero line indicates the total loss of mass. At the end of August, the mass gain/loss line crossed zero.
View attachment 80749
It is easier to see which area gained and lost in the next illustration, which shows the map of Greenland. Notice the areas with dark reds and dark blues, indicating that some areas really lost ice while others really gained. I can't recall having seen such contrast before:
View attachment 80747
During the season, the melting at times covered larger areas than is usual.
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The bottom line is that the ice age of Greenland is pretty stable.❄️🐻‍❄️
Here we go again with the usual good news for the Polar Bears:

The first image shows several events that dumped liberal amounts of snow. These are indicated by the upper spikes:
Greenland Surface Mass Balance 2024-09-01 155113.png
Areas closer to the ice sheet have in many area, except parts of Eastern Greenland, received more compared to the last season:
SMB_combine_SM_acc_EN.png
As you can read from the chart above, the develpment of the gains and losses have been close to normal., though April to May were on the dry side.

This year has seen a melt season, where large areas were above zero at the same time, but the season began and ended very abruptly, compare early June with late August. This graph, like the following, follows the calendar year:

Greenland melt extent 2024-09-01 155302.png
The sea ice has followed other recent year being on the low side of the average, indicating overall warm water. The ice sheet mass balance is closer to normal, than the extent of the sea ice.
SICE_curve_extent_LA_EN_20240825.png
The sea ice extent reaches its minimum around the middle of September. If one looks to the following map of the current ice conditions, notice the ice above Eastern Siberia. I don't know if this will affect the passage of ships in September-October. They might need a Russian icebreaker to make sure they will get through, but this is probably quite normal.

SICE_map_extent_LA_EN_20240825.png
Looking up the polar bear numbers, here is a website:

Polar Bear Population by Country 2024​


Globally, there are 19 recognized populations of polar bears in the Arctic, with an estimated 22,000 to 31,000 individual polar bears living in the wild. In addition, approximately 300 polar bears are held in captivity. However, the world's population of polar bears is on a decline, and some scientists fear they could become extinct by 2100. To protect these majestic creatures, the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act prohibit harassing, hunting, capturing, or killing polar bears.
A significant portion of the polar bear population resides in Canada, where two-thirds of all polar bears live. About 16,000 polar bears are spread across 13 provinces and territories, including Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Northern Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Newfoundland, and Labrador. Notably, Churchill, Manitoba, is known as the polar bear capital of the world due to its high concentration of these animals.
In the United States, Alaska is the only state with a polar bear population, estimated to be between 4,000 and 7,000 individuals. The polar bears in Alaska are primarily divided into two subpopulations: those in the Chukchi Sea, or Alaska-Chukotka, and the Southern Beaufort Sea.

Russia is home to an estimated 26,000 polar bears, living on islands and the mainland coast. Wrangel Island, a UNESCO-protected nature reserve in Russia, is often referred to as a polar bear maternity ward. Additional polar bear populations in Russia are found in the Barents Sea region, Svalbard, Novaya Zemlya, and the Far East Village.
Greenland's fjords and glacial ice are also home to polar bears, though they are elusive and rarely seen. It's estimated that around 4,400 polar bears inhabit Greenland, with two protected areas, Melville Bay and Greenland National Park, supporting polar bear populations.
The Svalbard archipelago in Norway is another prime location for spotting polar bears, with an estimated population of around 3,000. Despite their remote habitats, polar bear encounters can sometimes be dangerous. Since the 1970s, there have been six recorded human fatalities due to polar bear attacks.

Most polar bears in captivity are found in zoos, aquariums, and parks across Europe, North America, and Asia, contributing to conservation and education efforts about these iconic Arctic inhabitants.
In the beginning, they say:
an estimated 22,000 to 31,000 individual polar bears living in the wild. In addition, approximately 300 polar bears are held in captivity.
Checking that we use their numbers and add up:
Canada 16,000
Alaska 4000-7000
Russia 26,000
Greenland 4,400
Norway 3,000
Add it up and we have 53,400- 56,400.
How do they get to "22,000-31,000"? It could be by subtracting the young ones, but that is a stretch. If we subtract those residing in Russia, (maybe they have been sanctioned :lol:), it is 27,400-30,400 which is closer.

Conclusion: The ice sheet over Greenland is stable, and the polar bears are doing well
 
Thank you @thorbiorn for this yearly update, tracking the changes in the sea ice. Regarding the polar bears, then there is another site by the author Susan Crockford (a Canadian Zoologist) who wrote the book The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened.
In a post from 2019, she writes about the numbers:
Since the PBSG has so far refused to take this step, I took on the challenge. I contend that an estimate of about 39,000 (range 26,000-58,000) at 2018 is not only plausible but scientifically defensible. See the graph below from my new book:

Population size estimate graph chapter 10

Global polar bear population size estimates to 2018. From Chapter 10 of The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened (Crockford 2019).

This new estimate for 2018 is a modest 4-6 fold increase over the 10,000 or so bears that existed in the 1960s and after 25 years, a credible increase over the estimate of 25,000 that the PBSG offered in 1993 (Wiig et al. 1995).

However, my new estimate is much larger than the improbable figure of about 26,000 (range 22,000-31,000) offered by PGSG biologists in 2015 (Regehr et al. 2016; Wiig et al. 2015). The scary question is this: what do Arctic residents do if there are actually as many as 58,000?
PGSG stands for the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group and they have, according to Susan Crockford, not wanted to update their old estimates, which could explain why the number given in the article you gave, Thorbiorn was stuck at the 22000-31000 and it shows where that estimate comes from. Wikipedia page on Susan Crockford mentions she is climate change denialist, so that is quite badge of honor.
 
PGSG stands for the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group and they have, according to Susan Crockford, not wanted to update their old estimates, which could explain why the number given in the article you gave, Thorbiorn was stuck at the 22000-31000 and it shows where that estimate comes from. Wikipedia page on Susan Crockford mentions she is climate change denialist, so that is quite badge of honor.

From the same site, Susan looks to last-off-the-ice statistics (and an uptick of Polar Bear attacks, or interfering with tourists in Greenland).


The 1980s and early 1990s are said to have been the “good old days” for sea ice conditions and polar bears in Western Hudson Bay, with all tagged bears usually ashore by mid-to-late August. Then an abrupt step-change in sea ice breakup dates brought polar bears to shore an average of two weeks earlier in the late 1990s. From then until 2019, the only significant outlier to all tagged bears being ashore by about late July was 2009, which was such an unusually cold year that the last bears came ashore about August 20.

That pattern changed in 2020, when the last bears came off the ice as late as they had in 2009, on August 21. Something similar happened in 2022, when the last bears came off a small remnant of ice even later, about August 26. And this year, the bears may be moving ashore even later: there is even more ice remaining off WH and much of it is thick compacted ice that hasn’t melted much over the last few weeks, which means bears have been as late onshore as the 1980s for three out of the last five years.

-------------------

Brief on these Bears coming ashore in Greenland:

Reports over the last week of an unexpected abundance of polar bears onshore in East and Southwest Greenland have locals and tourists concerned. The former Prime Minister of Greenland claims the unusual number of bear sightings and problems with bears near communities (including an attack involving serious injury to a German researcher) are due to abundant sea ice offshore. This explanation is contrary to what polar bear specialists predict: i.e., that problems with bears occur when there is less ice than usual. None of the bears sighted have been described as thin or starving.
 

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