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Tango Six is aviation related portal in serbian. Here and there they came out with some quite interesting articles, such as this one by engineer Dalibor Djuran on asteroids and defence against them. He even gives very thorough and interesting comments in the readers comments section.
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Srpski vazduhoplovni inženjer ima rešenje: Pretnja asteroida "2024 YR4" i moguće strategije odbrane planete Zemlje - Tango Six
Asteroid 2024 YR4, otkriven je 27. decembra 2024. godine od strane sistema ATLAS u Čileu. Predstavljao je do pre neki...
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the ATLAS system in Chile. It posed a significant threat to Earth until recently, with an estimated 3.1% (1 in 32) chance of impact on December 22, 2032. This celestial object, between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, could, in the event of an impact, release energy equivalent to about 8 megatons of TNT , which is more than 500 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
The potential path of impact, known as the “risk corridor ,” stretches from the eastern Pacific, across North and South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Middle East, and all the way to Asia. This path includes densely populated cities like Bogota, Mumbai, and Dhaka , with a total of over 100 million people who could be at risk.
Fortunately, NASA released new data on Monday . The US space agency now estimates there is a 0.0017% chance of an asteroid hitting Earth in December 2032, while the European Space Agency (ESA) has a similar risk estimate of 0.002%. That's a 1 in 59,000 chance of an impact, meaning there's a 99.9983% chance the asteroid will safely pass by Earth in seven years. The new data also shows that the asteroid has a 1.7% chance of hitting the Moon, but that doesn't pose a risk to Earth either.
After additional observations, NASA experts calculated more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory and concluded that there is no significant potential for this asteroid to hit our planet in the next hundred years .
...however, the topic of Earthlings' response to this threat is more than interesting, so I will elaborate on it in more detail for Tango Six.
Possible Defense Strategies
Another option is the use of nuclear weapons, but their effectiveness in space is significantly different from that on Earth."
In response to this threat, international space agencies, including NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Chinese Space Agency , are actively tracking the asteroid and have been considering possible strategies for deflecting it. One proposed method is to use a kinetic impactor to alter the asteroid's trajectory, similar to NASA's DART experiment in 2022. However, given the time constraints and complexity of the mission, experts warn that it may be too late to effectively deflect an asteroid of this size.
Kinetic Strike and the Nuclear Option
We all remember the movie Armageddon and the brave Bruce Willis , who at the last moment destroys an asteroid with a nuclear bomb, saving the world and becoming a legend. Of course, in real life things are far from the film script full of inaccuracies and illogicality, but artistic freedom is inevitable in such creations.
Kinetic impact is often considered the primary method for deflecting asteroids like YR4 . This technique involves sending a spacecraft to impact the asteroid at high speed, imparting momentum to it and changing its orbit. While this method is applicable to medium-sized asteroids given sufficient preparation time, its effectiveness depends on the composition of the asteroid. If YR4 is a loose pile of rocks ("rubble pile asteroid"), some of the energy may be absorbed rather than transferred as useful momentum. Also, if the impact occurs too late, it may not be enough to significantly change the trajectory and prevent a collision with Earth.
Another option is to use nuclear weapons , but their effectiveness in space is significantly different from that on Earth. When a nuclear bomb explodes in the atmosphere, it uses the air to create a powerful shock wave and recoil that amplifies the destruction. However, in the vacuum of space, there is no medium to transmit this shock wave, so the main effects of the explosion would be radiation and direct thermal energy . If the detonation were to take place near YR4 , the intense heat could vaporize part of its surface, creating a force that would alter its orbit. However, if the asteroid is porous, some of the energy could be absorbed, reducing the effect. A direct nuclear strike could break the asteroid into multiple fragments, which could pose an even greater threat rather than safely deflecting it off course.
Limitations of Electric Drive
Low-thrust electric propulsion (EP), such as ion thrusters or solar sails , is not a practical solution for moving YR4 in the short term. These systems can provide continuous and efficient thrust over long periods, but they require months or even years to significantly alter the asteroid's orbit. In the event of an impending impact, such a slow thrust would not produce the necessary deflection in time. Due to the asteroid's large mass, only high-energy, instantaneous impulse methods —such as kinetic impact or nuclear detonation —are considered if the time frame is limited. If YR4 were discovered early enough, gradual push methods could be an option, but current technology and operational limitations make them impractical for urgent planetary defense scenarios.
Role of Apophis-ExL Mission and ExLabs
The Apophis-ExL mission , being developed by ExLabs in California , under my leadership, represents a key step toward advanced asteroid exploration and deep space operations. This mission will enable detailed study of Apophis , including surface mapping, compositional analysis, and resource assessment. In addition to its scientific value, Apophis-ExL will test critical technologies for future asteroid interception and trajectory modification missions. The lessons learned from this mission can directly contribute to future planetary defense strategies , especially in the case of asteroids like YR4 , where a rapid and precise response is needed .
The Need for Continuous Monitoring and Planetary Defense
Continuous monitoring of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and the development of effective planetary defense strategies are essential to protecting our planet from potential impacts . Although many asteroids are currently known, new objects are discovered daily , and some of them may pose a threat in the future.
Missions like our Apophis-ExL and potential asteroid intercept maneuvers like YR4 demonstrate the importance of having operational capabilities for early detection and rapid response . Without constant surveillance and developed technologies to redirect or neutralize threatening asteroids, civilization remains vulnerable to sudden cosmic hazards .
It is therefore necessary to invest in a global planetary defense system , which would include advanced telescope networks, reconnaissance missions, and operational interception capabilities , to ensure the safety of the Earth from potential impacts.
Dalibor Djuran is an electrical engineer and the Chief Technical Officer (CTO) of ExLabs , a company specializing in the development of spacecraft for deep space missions. He has extensive experience in the space industry, with an impressive portfolio that includes the launch of almost 200 satellites into low Earth orbit (LEO) . He began his education at the Aeronautical High School of the Yugoslav Air Force "Marshal Tito" , after which he continued his education at the Technical Academy of the Air Force and Air Defense of Yugoslavia , where he gained a foundation in the field of electronics and aeronautical engineering. He moved to the United States in 1997 , where he continued his career in the space industry. During his career, he designed a communication satellite for the LEO constellation , as well as radiation monitoring systems used in CANDU nuclear power plants . He developed the Integrated Lunar Lander and Rover System , a unique solution for lunar exploration that enables precision landing and mobility of surface exploration missions without the need for separate landing and rover modules. He worked with engineers at JPL/NASA to investigate the feasibility of a rendezvous mission with the asteroid Apophis , analyzing various options for approach and interaction with this celestial body. He currently lives in Los Angeles , where he is actively involved in the development of new technologies for space exploration. In addition to leading technical innovation at ExLabs, he is an advisor to several startups in the space industry, helping them overcome technological and engineering challenges on the path to commercial and scientific missions
