The latest from Pepe:
Syria: The break for the border
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/326536-turkey-isis-syria-erdogan/
Syria: The break for the border
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/326536-turkey-isis-syria-erdogan/
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The current shadow play – which includes the deployment of US Special Forces to northern Syria – opens the possibility that Turks and Americans are about to launch a major offensive to expel Islamic State from the crucial Jarabulus crossroads. Erdogan’s pretext is well known: to block by any means the attempt by YPG Syrian Kurds to unite their three cantons in northern Syria. In this corridor, Erdogan wants to install a dodgy, hazy bunch of Turkmen – his proxies – mixed with unspecified Sunni “moderate rebels,” keeping all lines of communication (and smuggling) with Turkey open.
Syrian Kurds, on the other hand, want to get there first. With American air support. And with Russian air support. This is one of the few things Team Obama and the Kremlin do agree on in Syria – to the absolute despair of the Sultan. The inside word from Ankara is that Turkey would be ready for a ground push on Jarabulus but only under American cover. Quite absurd, considering Washington and Ankara hardly are looking for the same endgame.
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So everything now hinges on the break for the border. Syrian Kurds have been loudly announcing something along the lines that “Real Kurds go to Jarabulus.” Jarabulus is, in a nutshell, Turkey’s last stand in Syria (the Russian Air Force has all but exterminated the Turkmen fight column in northern Latakia).
Imagine a Kurdish unification corridor – running from Afrin to the rest of Rojava. This means Turkey cut off from Syria; crucially, the end of the Jihadi Highway; the end of Turkish secret services offering lavish logistical support for Daesh, from Big Macs to holidays in Turkey; the end of the Syrian stolen oil Daesh Highway. Not to mention the YPG – allied with the PKK – controlling a semi-autonomous province with the status of a proto-state.
Make no mistake: the Sultan will go no holds barred to prevent it. ISIS was never an “existential threat” to Ankara. On the contrary; it was always a very useful indirect “ally.” Ankara will continue to plug the myth that the road to Daesh’s defeat goes through Assad regime change.
Russia exposed the bluff. Yet the lame duck Obama administration is still uncertain; should we use Erdogan even as he recklessly tries to pit NATO directly against Russia? Or should we dump him? The answer lies in who, and how, wins the break for the border.