Forget official explanations. They are only semi -true (if that). Its all about big money, criminal and international law precedent. This is not in english, but you will understand. Disregard somewhat sensationalist headline, the interview is not like that, but explains the problem:
What's happening in Serbia
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Full blown psychopath, not sociopath. And as a consequence criminal. Unfortunately he is pretty limited mentally, and thus not capable of "white collar", just low level "grab and steal" criminal.
Anyway, it's unlikely that he has a role in "human safari". He was too young for some organizational role, but could have been involved indirectly through his then boss, psychopath Vojislav Seselj.
It is hardly unlikely that this is a campaign to remove him from power. It is more probably a campaign, as Alex Krainer said, for instigating the future war in Balkan. But, since there is never just one goal, it could also be used as obfuscation and attention redirecting for other things. In the correlation with Vucic, at this moment, it could be an attempt to obfuscate his deal (which he is doing for the American group of "investors") to steal NIS from Russia and sell it to those "investors" in the USA. (With a hefty percentage for him and his cronies). Its not about the NIS, but about the whole country, which will stay without russian gas in that way. Maybe even more important (to the US for sure) is the fact that the international law agreement would be broken and that it will make precedent in international relations. After that, any international law deal could be broken in the same way. Just as the precedent and the recipe for Iraq, Afghanistan, and many others were given with NATO bombing of Yugoslavia.
Actually, at this moment, that "human safari" affair can only help him to stay in power, because he can use it in his media to portray himself as a victim. Which he already does.
Any attempt to remove Vucic from power must go through people of Serbia. Just as it was done before, and just as it was done wherever the West did it, be it Africa, or Ukraine. People in Serbia are not interested in that "human safari", so it's a "no" for the idea of a campaign to remove him from power. There is no need to persuade people in Serbia that Vucic is bad, we already know that he is the worst. So "human safari" is for outer international use, not Serbia.
At this moment Vucic is good for the West, for the EU, and for China and Russia. All of them have their separate interests in keeping him in power. Although, the Autistic Empire of Russia (sorry, but that is the Russian standing to Serbia now) can solve the situation, and Vucic for good, in just a couple of sentences spoken by, for example, Putin. But, they have no interest in that.
The region was destroyed in the early nineties. The rest is about control and sucking out resources and people. (for example Croatia is totally sucked out of resources, they are sucking out people now). In that perspective Vucic is the perfect player for the PTB. The problem for the PTB now is that people don't want Vucic anymore, but the PTB doesn't have another puppet prepared. They tried the old "democrats vs republican" game, (Vucic vs fake pro-western opposition in Serbia), but that doesn't hold the water anymore.
Yes, the plan was to build the pipeline to Hungary and to get Russian oil through Hungary and Ukraine, if the USA would allow that. The problem is that it is planned to be finished in 2027.
There were several rumors about that, but so far nothing is certain because RF would lose political influence in RS if it was economically removed from RS.
There were never plans for the oil pipeline to Hungary. There were talks about that. Talks mean nothing. Any pipeline which doesn't go through Croatia (Adriatic pipeline) was out of the question in the last 10 years or so, because it would mean a loss of big money for serbo - croatian organized crime which controls both countries for the West, who also doesn't want that. The pipeline Southern Stream was expected to do that job, but it was stopped by Bulgarians. Infrastructure already built still standing.
There were no talks between Serbia and Russia. There is no Serbia in that. Only Vucic (and the gang) and Russia. Vucic is not interested in talks about NIS with Russia, Russia doesnt believe Vucic any more.
Also, important, Vucic signed last year the deal with the US of "strategic energy partnership".
Not to forget, Hungary is importing Russian oil without problems. The part of oil and oil products coming from NIS to Serbia is about 30% of the Serbian market. NIS covers 30% of the market. The rest is from imports. Why is that important? Because, Serbia "will not get into a halt" if NIS stops, as Vucic is saying. There is no need to "scrape the barrels", "take military reserves", "stop the bakery to bake bread", or to "double the prices of gas and diesel", as Vucic melodramatically announces EVERY DAY on TV. Moreover, Hungary said that their company MOL will replace any loss of percentage of oil to NIS if Serbia solves the problem with NIS. There is no need for expensive US, Iraqi oil which comes through Adriatic oil pipeline at all, MOL would provide cheaper Russian oil, all the way until Serbia and Hungary build connection to Russian Druzhba pipeline.
But then, what is the problem?
Its actually quite simple. NIS is owned by Serbia and Russia. At some point USA said: "no Russian STATE OWNERSHIP" in any oil companies in Europe, no "NOT RUSSIAN OIL". Oil and gas are permitted. It flows. In the agreement between Serbia and Russia, when the NIS was partly sold out to Russia, there is a clause which forbids Serbia to nationalize (take over by the government's decree) Russian part. If Serbia nationalize Russian part of NIS, Russia have the right for international arbitrage and settlement. That means that NIS would be shut down (NO MONEY OF IT - bad). There is solution where Russia sell its part of NIS to Serbia or some third party. But Serbia as a state (country, in american English) never offered that officially, Serbian part of the NIS never offered officially to buy out Russian part. There were rumors that some third parties offered to buy it (western hedge funds, serbo - croatian organized crime hedge funds, UAE, even Hungarian MOL, which would be real offer for buying out and the best for Serbia), but Russia remains silent. All that time Vucic is saying that he will solve that with the US. Never that he will solve that with Russia, which IS the actual address for solving the problem.
So, still no VISIBLE problem in all that, BUT, behind the curtains:
(I am aware that I am boring with this, and this is hard to grasp that some country in Europe can be so corrupted and politically devastated, but we are forgetting Ukraine, much bigger and stronger than Serbia. So its possible. Bear with me, please).
Vucic is a psychopath and a criminal. Plain and simple. This is important because that is the starting point of the problem. He is not doing anything for the people of Serbia, or country of Serbia. He is doing only for himself. Vucic is not Serbia. Also, his days in the power are getting shorter. He had couple of deals with the US (NIS is not the only one), of course with unofficial, or semi-official groups, which would buy him some time at power, granted bu the US, insane sum of money, and possibly protection if he have to flee from Serbia. The US gets money, firmer control over Serbia and thus the Balkans, and international law precedent for the future.
The plan is to take over Russian part of NIS, or to buy it himself through some hedge fund, and than after squeezing and stealing some more money for himself of it, sell it to some US hedge fund, of course for a hefty provision for himself (hundreds of millions or billion level, he's way past just mere millions) and possible shelter somewhere under the US dominance. He cant nationalize it, because that would mean international arbitrage and no money, possibly even not reselling. He cant buy the Russian part, because Serbia have no money, and that would mean less money for him, possibly less money when reselling. He doesn't want Russia to sell their part to some third party (MOL for example) because he wouldn't be able to suck out more money of it and than resell it.
He was HOPING THAT RUSSIA WILL GIVE THEIR PART FREE TO SERBIA, so that "SERBIAN PEOPLE DOES NOT SUFFER".
At the same time, Vucic is in campaign of westernisation, NATO-isation (for the lack of better term...) of Serbia and blatant defamation of Russia. So we have in his TV appearances (every day) and his media (and all are his) and thousand of his bots on social media stuff like this: "Russia is a false friend, they are permitting the US to choke us", "Ukrainians are wining the war and busting Russians", "we will not have petrol because of russians", "Russia dont want to sell it to us"and so on.
Russia is silent on all that. As a person living in Serbia, I can only hope that they are aware that Serbian people are actually Vucic'c hostage. If they are not, and do something that benefits Vucic, we are doomed. (the latest from Putin, Zakharova and Peskov, and unofficially from Dugin tells that they are aware. There is hope.)
And writing above post I realized that I'm just wasting my time. No one reads it, no one is interested. And because of my direct writing (or is it my picture? I must change that) I'm perceived as a rude, passionate idiot.
So, from now on, only "now back to the sports" bright, happy topics! Occasionally interrupted with pictures of cute kittens and puppies.....
I want to get your attention to the newest Robin Hood TV series. Its filmed in Serbia. And in the part in which I spend time mostly during the summers! Two last years because of my mum, she cant be on her alone anymore. I wasn't aware that it was filmed in Serbia, until I recognized the "river Trent" in the series. Its actually river Mlava (Mluva) and monastery Gornjak (Gornyuck). Beautiful nature. And I was wondering why so many French and British SUVs in vicinity.
A few my pictures of river Mlava:
So, from now on, only "now back to the sports" bright, happy topics! Occasionally interrupted with pictures of cute kittens and puppies.....
I want to get your attention to the newest Robin Hood TV series. Its filmed in Serbia. And in the part in which I spend time mostly during the summers! Two last years because of my mum, she cant be on her alone anymore. I wasn't aware that it was filmed in Serbia, until I recognized the "river Trent" in the series. Its actually river Mlava (Mluva) and monastery Gornjak (Gornyuck). Beautiful nature. And I was wondering why so many French and British SUVs in vicinity.
A few my pictures of river Mlava:
SasaM
Jedi Council Member
Well, not speaking for others of course, but I think you missed the mark with this assessment. Perhaps instead of assuming and constructing narratives in your head about yourself and how you are perceived by others, you might ask if you will and receive honest freely given feedback that might be closer to truth than your own 'inferred' constructions.
FWIW.
BTW, lovely landscape you have there on the images with the river Mlava.
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South Stream was supposed to be a gas pipeline, not oil.
It's much more than 30%. 30% is perhaps the number of gas station that NIS owns. But the majority of other gas stations are buying oil from NIS.
Yes, Serbia can import oil products from several surrounding countries, not just Hungary. The main problem right now is the existence of NIS, which in a few days will stop functioning if nothing changes.
NIS stopped importing Russian oil a few years ago.
South stream was gas and oil pipeline. NIS held only 30% of everything, according to official data. But I really dont care anymore. No one is interested, why should I be?
Nope, only gas.
Nope, NIS held 79% last year, but dropped to 66% this year, when the sanctions were introduced (page 20).
SasaM
Jedi Council Member
Can you provide any backup for your "real data" claims?The wind still whispering through the threes.....Beautiful.
I told you the real data, not official. And I told you the possible outcomes. The rest is irrelevant.
Otherwise it basically comes down to hearsay, believing you on no basis whatsoever except you saying that your claims are more real than what others say. Like Petar said before, we are not engaging in pub gossiping and rumors or opinion battlings, but discussions based on available data to get to as objective as possible perspective of things in our reality on the ground in this realm of ours.
Ruth
The Living Force
Well heck - welcome to the club! All of us have been perceived that way (or even thought we were being perceived and judged that way and potentially we were!). So too, have people said something that in retrospect was more important than understood (by others) at the time, and some may have even complained about it!
The biggest challenge for everyone seems to be not just assumptions, but self importance. Ah, maybe I've just come across the "Universal Forum Theory"?
Cracks me up. Anyway the first step, I've found, is not to care. You can put something "out there", and if nobody responds immediately or with the appropriate amount of gravitas, or if even they belately find something to be important, then it doesn't really matter, does it?
Pavlović: There is no buyer for NIS, the Russians are not planning a sale; the refinery is shutting down, but derivatives will be imported
There is currently enough oil derivatives in Serbia, the authorities claim, while the US response to the request for the extension of the NIS license is awaited, on which the continuation of the operation of the Pancevo Refinery depends. The Serbian government is holding a new extraordinary session dedicated to the energy situation and measures to ensure supply. Financial analyst Vladan Pavlović believes that a potential buyer for NIS from the Emirates does not exist, that is, he believes that the refinery will soon cease operations. On the other hand, he believes that there will be oil derivatives in the coming months, thanks to increased imports.
Speaking about potential negotiations between Russia and possible buyers of the Serbian Oil Industry from the United Arab Emirates, financial analyst Vladan Pavlović believes that there are no negotiations at all.
"Let's start with how this news appeared one after another. First, ADNOC and Abu Dhabi allegedly got involved. Anyone who follows global financial flows knows that Abu Dhabi is the new global center of Russian capital through which all international transactions are carried out. Russia probably tried to sell NIS to itself through a Russian entity established there. That will not go under the radar of OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control). That is why Serbia was bypassed in the transaction and is not offered the right of first refusal. The Russians have no intention of selling NIS at all. I do not expect them to receive permission from OFAC," says Pavlović.
He claims that official Moscow has no interest in rushing to sell NIS, nor in selling the company at all.
"Since last night, there has been a new peace plan by the United States for Ukraine, where Washington, Kiev and the European Union have in fact acknowledged many things that are in Russia's favor. Therefore, I am convinced that there is no talk of a sale and that it will soon be announced that the license has not been obtained. This is how I interpret the extraordinary meetings of the Government - they are probably discussing with oil company associations how to import even more derivatives, and that this NIS issue will be resolved when the sanctions against Russia are lifted. The biggest pity is that the Refinery in Pancevo will not be operating during that time, including Petrohemija," points out the interlocutor of the Morning Program of Radio and Television of Serbia.
Sale, right of pre-emption and intention
Pavlović points out that the problem is that no bank wants to cooperate with a company that is under US sanctions due to fears of secondary sanctions, which has already been presented to the National Bank of Serbia in the form of a warning .
"No serious fund or company will buy such a company until it receives a guarantee that sanctions will not apply after the sale. We do not yet have such guarantees from America. Why would anyone invest in such a risky investment? On the other hand, if Washington really demands that the money from the possible sale of NIS truly remain frozen until the end of the sanctions, then Russia will not agree to the sale," explains Pavlović.
He emphasizes that only Belgrade is in a hurry in this situation, but underlines that he does not see the economic logic behind Russia selling NIS.
"If they want to get the highest price, they would agree to sell NIS to Serbia. After all, there is a right of first refusal that apparently no one respects. Someone misunderstood the Kremlin's intentions - they have no interest in selling the company. If there had been any intention, there would have been many chances to implement such a thing by now," the source said.
Derivatives, imports and reserves
Pavlović says that Serbia already imports around 30 percent of oil derivatives and that it is possible that quantities from the same suppliers will increase in the coming period.
"The oil derivatives associations need to know the exact quantities. If the refinery stops operating, and I think it will, we will be short about 140,000 tons – which is about 3,500 cisterns or 160 cisterns more on a daily basis," explains the financial analyst.
He claims that Serbia also has certain reserves with which it could last another two or three months.
"In that sense, we will have enough derivatives, we will just import them. You also have countries in the region that do not have refineries, and they have oil derivatives and those derivatives are cheaper than here," Pavlović concluded in an interview with Radio Television of Serbia.
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