The southern half of the Florida Peninsula
will get hit hard with heavy rainfall on Mother's Day, with some areas likely to pick up a month's worth of rain in 24 hours.
Drought conditions
have been expanding across Florida since the beginning of the year, with 78% of the state currently experiencing abnormal dryness to severe drought, compared to just 24% on Jan. 1, according to the
United States Drought Monitor.
The dry ground, combined with gusty winds on Wednesday, caused
several fires to flare up across the Florida Panhandle, prompting thousands to evacuate.
As a cold front swings through early Saturday, some rain should help with firefighting efforts in this area.
This
cold front, or dividing line between warm and cool air, was the focal point for an area of
low pressure to develop in the Gulf of Mexico which will eventually spread heavy rain into the southern part of the Florida Peninsula late in the weekend.
The storm will continue to bring
needed rain to South Texas,
where severe to extreme drought is ongoing, into Saturday.
AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the storm as it travels across the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, as some early-season tropical systems have formed along fronts draped over the warm Gulf waters in the past.
"This storm will more than likely be subtropical in nature as it moves across the Florida Peninsula Sunday into Monday," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. A subtropical storm exhibits both tropical and non-tropical features.
Regardless of tropical development, a swath of drenching rain will spread through South Florida on Sunday and Sunday night.
"People accustomed to spending time outdoors on Mother's Day over the Florida Peninsula may want to consider alternative plans or perhaps celebrate outdoor activities on Saturday instead as Sunday could be stormy and quite cool and wet," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
Residents from
Fort Myers to
Port St. Lucie,
West Palm Beach and
Miami are likely to have any outdoor Mother's Day plans altered.
"Rainfall will be heavy enough
to erase about one-third of the precipitation deficit in South Florida," Pastelok said.
Rainfall over South Florida and the Keys could be excessive with
a general 2-4 inches and perhaps an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches. Fort Myers typically receives 2.65 inches of rain during May, while
Key West averages 3 inches and Miami averages 5.34 inches.
"Rainfall of this magnitude in a 24-hour period
can lead to significant urban flooding, just like that of a tropical storm," Sosnowski said.
Motorists on stretches of interstates 75 and 95 across South Florida will want to use caution as pooling of water on the roadways will heighten the risk of hydroplaning while traveling at highway speeds. Secondary roadways that are completely covered with water should be avoided.
The heaviest rain may stay just south of
Orlando, with only stray showers expected north of the city up to around
Jacksonville. The western half of the Florida Panhandle
where wildfires are burning will likely stay dry through the weekend.
Even after the storm has departed by early next week, lingering tropical moisture is likely
to bring rounds of downpours to South Florida and the Keys into the middle of the month.