Is China Preparing a 'Special Military Operation' In Taiwan?

Maybe all these hypes are a distraction and I am reminded of this;

Cynics ... would say that we do not need the celestial threat to disguise Cold War intentions; rather we need the Cold War to disguise celestial intentions!
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Thirty Years of Cults and Comets

©UnknownComet of 1532 This morning I was thumbing through a newly arrived book: Comet/Asteroid Impacts and Human Society, published by the eminent scientific publishing house, Springer, edited by Peter T. Bobrowsky and Hans Rickman. This book is...
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So what else is going on that we are being distracted from by this soap opera?

Remember that a lot of the US high ranking officials have been making deals with China for years. Anything that happens becomes an excuse for something else.

Eg Putins price hike. So Xi’s recession?
 
Yes the Chinese dumping US treasuries would probably crush the US financial system. China would suffer too by destroying their biggest customer but the US would suffer far more with some sort of hideous hyper-stagflation variant perhaps. I haven’t totally thought it through but economics is their biggest stick.
 
SOTTREADER said:
China and Russia surely must realise America would much rather plunge the world into nuclear apocalypse if it doesn't remain the no.1 in the world. I dare say they are crazy enough to start a WW3 in the hopes that when it's all said and done, they will come out on top.
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Psychopaths don't like a fair fight. Take note that the Empire over the last 40 years or so only attacked defenseless countries. Nuclear war is not their cup of tea. OSIT.
 
BHelmet said:
Yes. That would be Air Force and navy and would most likely initiate a hot war. I think of army as ground forces.
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Amphibious, missile launch and coastal defense operations are still necessary, I don't know at what level each of these areas will participate in the exercises, but the first and second ones should be part of a possible invasion and should be tested if the military exercises are serious and on a real scale.
 
This longish piece by Cynthia Chung on the Saker might amount to a 'local' albeit well informed and strategically minded commentary: The Real Global Agenda Pushing for War with China | The Vineyard of the Saker

She may not be correct or even neutral in everything she says, but the suggestion is that Taiwan is the Ukraine/loot and destabilise the territory under the guise of assistance/put pressure on Russia around its borders playbook being rolled out yet again.

She has lots interesting to say on how it's happening in several territories around the world, on what the big geopolitical picture/choice we face is - and on its roots.

The difficulty we're all very conscious of is that pressuring China could well trigger another proxy war leading to more terrible suffering and enriching of the STS - and even accidentally result in a tipping over into catastrophe. Or if the situation goes against them the triggering of some sort of Samson option.

It's not even just about Russia and China - we the ordinary punters throughout the Western world are as she says being bled just as severely by these people.

The question of course is how will the power of these people be broken, and how can we get through the changes in one piece. Those of us in Western societies are these days being presented with some very hard questions which we can't afford to ignore...

For what it's worth my personal intuitive instincts are that we're going to get there - that it's going to be bumpy and stay scary for some time but that it IS going to get sorted out without the worst happening...
 
SOTTREADER said:
China and Russia surely must realise America would much rather plunge the world into nuclear apocalypse if it doesn't remain the no.1 in the world. I dare say they are crazy enough to start a WW3 in the hopes that when it's all said and done, they will come out on top.
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I seriously doubt it, not least because I suspect they literally cannot do that. More likely, then, is the creation of the conditions for a rapidly worsening economic collapse, which has already been started over the Ukraine situation.
 
BHelmet said:
Yes. That would be Air Force and navy and would most likely initiate a hot war. I think of army as ground forces.
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The Russian guys analysis seemed pretty logical to me. China would likely try to control those islands as a way to blockade Taiwan and wait for it to capitulate. What, if anything (other than sic the media on China), the US would do is an open question, although I think, as Bjorn said, the US is a coward and, since Vietnam, does not like to engage in fights where the enemy can effectively shoot back. I think the US 'deep state' is following a plan here that involves the progressive collapse of the global economy that they hope to stage manage to their own benefit.
 
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bjorn said:
Nuclear war is not their cup of tea. OSIT.
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Anyone familiar with strange lights around Minot AFB and the sudden immobilization of missile silos, and other similar examples back in the 60s and 70s, has good reason to theorize that an all out nuclear war is off the table. I mean, crazies in DC notwithstanding, there's no benefit to the top echelon to destroy the farm entirely.
 
BHelmet said:
True enough. I suppose China might use this as justification for future action in their narrative. Or as a psyop to psyche up their own people to support an aggressive outburst.
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I am reminded of the biowarfare that China faced in Shanghai earlier in the year, which they kept mum about. If they wanted to drum up pretexts for aggressive action they have no shortage of indignations in the historical record to pull from.

China needs to do literally nothing to regain control of Taiwan at some point -- everything is in their favor, especially time. Best thing they can do is just let the US make fools of themselves with these ridiculous stunts. It changes nothing on the ground, and I sincerely wonder who on earth still doesn't know it yet.
 
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