Is China Preparing a 'Special Military Operation' In Taiwan?

[dredger]

Found this about warnings from China, it seem's that the terms "Chinese final warning" is a proverb used in Russia which ... "is used ironically to refer to a warning that carries no real consequences"

There's a little story about it explained here :

China's final warning - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Question is : what about nowodays ?

 

[BHelmet]

In any case, conflict is good for no one. What does it matter that she's there. China should just ignore her rather than engage in ego wars with the US.

True enough. I suppose China might use this as justification for future action in their narrative. Or as a psyop to psyche up their own people to support an aggressive outburst.

 

[irjO]

How long is Pelosi in Taiwan for, anyone know? Looks like she can relax there for the next 2 weeks given the US called the Chinese bluff?

In any case, conflict is good for no one. What does it matter that she's there. China should just ignore her rather than engage in ego wars with the US.

It's not an ego war with the US, it's basically similar situation to Russia-Ukraine. USA has military bases nearby and the fact the US authorities are flying and doing exercises in a territory that Chine is still claiming their own is a provocation. Chine is in their right to defend their position. If chine even fly close to Hawaii, the USA would have make something huge out of it and could even start a war right away because of it. China has been very patient, actually.

 

[Adobe]

02.08.2022 20:11

Statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry on us House of Representatives Speaker Nicolas Pelosi's visit to Taiwan​

"We consider her visit as a clear provocation in the spirit of the US aggressive line towards comprehensive deterrence of China."

"We urge Washington to refrain from actions that undermine regional stability and international security and to recognize the new geopolitical reality, in which there is no longer room for American hegemony."

Full article below: (click translate for English)

Заявление МИД России в связи с визитом на Тайвань спикера Палаты представителей США Н.Пелоси

mid.ru

 

[SOTTREADER]

It's not an ego war with the US, it's basically similar situation to Russia-Ukraine. USA has military bases nearby and the fact the US authorities are flying and doing exercises in a territory that Chine is still claiming their own is a provocation. Chine is in their right to defend their position. If chine even fly close to Hawaii, the USA would have make something huge out of it and could even start a war right away because of it. China has been very patient, actually.

China has to be patient because they are dealing with crazy psychopaths I suppose. The issue though is they shouldn't be making threats unless they mean to follow through lest they send the wrong message and before they know it, Pelosi is there every other week, buys a holiday home etc. Just kidding . Should all lighten up because it's just a crazy lady visiting and really, does it matter?

 

[BHelmet]

Where is Madame Chiang Kai Shek when we really need her?

What are the Taiwanese leaders saying? Like the little kid the parents are arguing over. I assume Pelosi was invited?

(Good to know just how we got here)

 

[irjO]

It's not an ego war with the US, it's basically similar situation to Russia-Ukraine. USA has military bases nearby and the fact the US authorities are flying and doing exercises in a territory that Chine is still claiming their own is a provocation. Chine is in their right to defend their position. If chine even fly close to Hawaii, the USA would have make something huge out of it and could even start a war right away because of it. China has been very patient, actually.

Btw I meant China not Chine, my keyboard is also doing provocation exercises against my will lol

 

[Adobe]

If Nancy Pelosi does hang around Taiwan for the next few days, it appears she will be in the middle of 4 days of live fire military exercise going on all around the island of Taiwan. Due to start day after tomorrow (the 4th of Aug) and last until the 7th.

"China announces it will be conducting military drills, including live-fire exercises, all around Taiwan as Pelosi arrives for historic visit"​

• "China's military will host military exercises near Taiwan this week, Chinese state media reported.
• The reports said this will include live-fire drills in the water and airspace surrounding the island.
• State media announced the drills shortly after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan on Tuesday."

"Shortly after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan for a historic visit, China announced that the People's Liberation Army will hold military exercises all around the island this week."

"From August 4 to 7, the Chinese military will hold hold live-fire drills in six maritime areas surrounding the self-ruled island and their respective airspace, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency and state-affiliated Global Times, among other state outlets."

Article below:

China announces it will be conducting military drills, including live-fire exercises, all around Taiwan as Pelosi arrives for historic visit

The White House previously said China might respond provocatively to Pelosi's visit, listing military exercises near the island as a possibility.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Aeneas]

I do not wish anything bad to anyone, but I am afraid that we will not see anything in the "action" except for the "last Chinese warning". The tiger chose to remain paper.

I think the Chinese were smart not to do something aggressive as it would put them on the backfoot. The chess move was made by the US to goad China into making a response. Instead of responding as the US might have liked, the Chinese now have open possibilities as to what to do and thus leave the US guessing. It will no doubt have repercussions but China will have gained I think by not acting in a predictive manner. Like in Ukraine, the Chinese on the mainland and on Taiwan are brothers and sisters and many in Taiwan would actually like to see unification. Ideally Taiwan gets united with the mainland without a fight and for China to kill many Taiwanese because of Pelosi would not get them many bonus points in Taiwan or the world.

China has time on their side. Perhaps Pelosi will not be able to leave or a sudden massive sale of US treasury bonds owned by China could be some of the options being considered. In any case, the US self-destruct has only been hastened by this move and perhaps even more so because they didn't shoot any planes down.

So I wouldn't judge China to be a paper tiger by any stretch of the imagination. Things will unfold.

 

[bjorb]

In any case, conflict is good for no one. What does it matter that she's there. China should just ignore her rather than engage in ego wars with the US.

I think China prefers unification through peace by all necessary means. What it can not stand is a hostile U.S. proxy state next to it's borders being armed to the teeth. Sometimes what is best is to push back.

Or like Putin once said:

"Now, as to whether issues could be resolved through force and whether you can use force and stay on the side of good; would you like to say that 'good' forces should be helpless or defenceless? 'Good' should not be defenceless. 'Good' should be able to defend itself and that is our position." -Vladimir Putin, Press Conference

But no, I don't like anything of this.

 

[thorbiorn]

For a presentation of the scenario of a war between China and Taiwan in terms of tactics, there is new video from the person who analyses the situation in Ukraine:

Taiwan. Military Summary And Analysis 02.08.2022
His idea is that it could be a long proxy war between China and US. His estimate is that China will initially take control of the Taiwanese islands near mainland China.

 

[Vajra2]

The visit is not over yet - but might the reality not be that the Chinese would be daft to get into a shooting war over a visit which is unlikely to be of substantive importance? Especially against an opponent which while still dangerous seems to be well down the road towards economically and otherwise neutering itself and leaving the way open for the co-operative resolution of the Taiwan question?

They presumably and in light of what happened in the Ukraine after 2014 (and as has been attempted in other locations since) need to deter gross interference in the realpolitik sense - to show that it could quickly become very painful. They seem to be doing that - but might they not also prefer if possible to keep on trading and avoid unnecessary suffering and catastrophe?

Can we even be sure that the Pelosi deal is in large part not just a storm in a teacup. One bouncing around and growing legs in the echo chamber that is the Western media - channels which for STS reasons will grab any straw that comes their way, hype and then put it out for others to do the same with?

It'd be interesting to be Chinese speaking and close enough to the situation to be able to properly read what's going on from that side.

Might they for example as a country speaking a very different language and with a population that has limited access to Western media (which anyway may not be much influenced by sources known to be completely untrustworthy) not really care about 'winning' the schoolyard level game of one upmanship set up by the Western media for the benefit of Western populations?

The million dollar question/the true risk is perhaps more to do with whether or not the Western big money elite see benefit for themselves in triggering a war or other major dispute with China....

 

[Adobe]

Here is a map of the six areas where the military exercises will be taking place.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1554484887171866624

 

[Aeneas]

Just saw this on Sputnik:

The confrontation between China and the United States around Taiwan is just beginning.

This was told to @Sputnik by the director of the Institute of Asian and African Countries of Moscow State University Alexey Maslov @maslovasia.

For what purpose did the United States stage a provocation in Taiwan? Washington wanted to find out where Beijing's "red lines" were.

Why does the US need a conflict between China and Taiwan? Washington wants to create another hotbed of tension by distracting a key competitor in Asia.

What will be China's reaction to the US action? Beijing may hit the American economy and stop the supply of rare earth metals.

What kind of military response can we expect from China? The Chinese army will block Taiwan, which will destroy the island's economy.

What is the opinion of the island authorities about this situation? Beijing and Taipei were in a diplomatic dialogue. Now it is destroyed, and Taiwan has become a "bargaining chip".

How can this affect the situation in Ukraine? The confrontation between China and the United States may push Beijing to greater support for Moscow in international issues.

Read more about this in our interview (Маслов рассказал, зачем Пелоси на самом деле прилетела на Тайвань — Video | VK).

Маслов рассказал, зачем Пелоси на самом деле прилетела на Тайвань — Video | VK

Watch Маслов рассказал, зачем Пелоси на самом деле.. 13 min from 2 August 2022 online in HD for free in the VK catalog without signing up! Views: 1456. Likes: 50.

vk.com

Маслов рассказал, зачем Пелоси на самом деле прилетела на Тайвань

Спикер Палаты представителей Ненси Пелоси прибыла в Тайбэй. Она назвала свой визит свидетельством поддержки США Тайваня, Китай выразил решительный протест. Приведет ли это к американо-китайской войне? Как еще Китай может ответить США? В чем основная цель Соединенных Штатов в регионе? Какую роль...

rutube.ru

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It also points to that China has a myriad of ways to make life hard for the US. The US by its very actions displays to the whole world who is the irresponsible provocateur while China is showing itself to buy time and avoid violent conflict. Like Russia, China has experienced the devastation of wars first hand unlike the US, and prefers to trade with countries rather than violent conflict. Many countries will see the Chinese approach as the mature one and that will carry weight as time goes by. Or so I think.

 

[SOTTREADER]

Just saw this on Sputnik:

It also points to that China has a myriad of ways to make life hard for the US. The US by its very actions displays to the whole world who is the irresponsible provocateur while China is showing itself to buy time and avoid violent conflict. Like Russia, China has experienced the devastation of wars first hand unlike the US, and prefers to trade with countries rather than violent conflict. Many countries will see the Chinese approach as the mature one and that will carry weight as time goes by. Or so I think.

China and Russia surely must realise America would much rather plunge the world into nuclear apocalypse if it doesn't remain the no.1 in the world. I dare say they are crazy enough to start a WW3 in the hopes that when it's all said and done, they will come out on top.

Unless China, Russia etc find a way around this, it's inevitable one day they'll be faced with the choice to either capitulate or the world goes bye bye.

I feel they must know this and they must surely have a plan.