India and Pakistan head to war ?

India seems to have used 24 precision missile strikes (British SCALP cruise missiles and French HAMMER precision-guided munitions ) on 9 terrorist training locations and claims to have killed 80 terrorists. Pakistan claims to have shot down 5 planes ( 3 Rafael, 1 Su-30, 1 Mig-29) on the Indian territory. Claims and counter claims are hard to verify as of now. truth most probably is at some where in between.

Here is an interesting analysis on the tactics of past, present and dynamics involved.
idrw.org

C. Christine Fair on Pakistan Army’s Insurgent Mindset and the Enduring Role of Lashkar-e-Taiba - Indian Defence Research Wing

SOURCE: AFI The persistent tension between India and Pakistan, reignited by the April 22, 2025, terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, has once again brought the Pakistan Army’s strategic calculus into focus. In a recent discussion, C. Christine Fair, a prominent scholar and expert on...
idrw.org idrw.org
 
Zakharovas latest statements about the situation:

We are deeply concerned about the aggravation of military confrontation between India and Pakistan following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam.

Russia firmly condemns all acts of terrorism, stands against any manifestations of terrorism, and highlights the importance of joining the efforts of the international community for effectively combating this evil.

We urge the countries involved to show restraint in order to prevent the further deterioration in the region. We hope that differences between New Delhi and Islamabad will be settled in a peaceful manner by political and diplomatic means, based on bilateral efforts and in accordance with the provisions of the Simla Agreement (1972) and the Lahore Declaration (1999).
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Both countries have exchanged artillery fire along the line of control in Kashmir, with reports of civilian and military casualties. Pakistan has promised a "forceful" response at a time and place of its choosing.

In India, there is strong public support for military action, with Modi giving "total freedom" to the Armed Forces to respond to terrorism. In Pakistan, the government seeks to unify the population in the face of the Indian threat, although it faces internal challenges, such as economic instability and conflicts with groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1920109915915297107

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919872165442171335
 
Is Pakistan running out of artillery shells because it has sold most of it to Ukraine?

"It has been said before that Islamabad supplies ammunition to Ukraine, but the volumes of supplies have not been disclosed. However, India has also distinguished itself in this field; Indian-made shells are very actively used by the Ukrainian army, the volumes of supplies are not very large, and they reach Ukraine through third countries...", claims topwar.ru
 
Puma said:
Both countries have exchanged artillery fire along the line of control in Kashmir, with reports of civilian and military casualties. Pakistan has promised a "forceful" response at a time and place of its choosing.

In India, there is strong public support for military action, with Modi giving "total freedom" to the Armed Forces to respond to terrorism. In Pakistan, the government seeks to unify the population in the face of the Indian threat, although it faces internal challenges, such as economic instability and conflicts with groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan.​

https://twitter.com/x/status/1920109915915297107

https://twitter.com/x/status/1919872165442171335
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Forget Dugin. His views on geopolitics are not well informed and are over simplistic. For example, India is much more under Russian influence than the US's, especially military industry wise. Pakistan is under more Chinese influence only in recent couple of years, before was CIA's playground, and British before that.
 
Ursus Minor said:
Is Pakistan running out of artillery shells because it has sold most of it to Ukraine?

"It has been said before that Islamabad supplies ammunition to Ukraine, but the volumes of supplies have not been disclosed. However, India has also distinguished itself in this field; Indian-made shells are very actively used by the Ukrainian army, the volumes of supplies are not very large, and they reach Ukraine through third countries...", claims topwar.ru
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From search engine:
According to Reuters and The Hindu, Indian-made artillery shells have been redirected to Ukraine through European buyers, which has raised concerns in Moscow. India has maintained close ties with Russia, but it has not intervened to stop the trade of its artillery shells to Ukraine, considering it an opportunity to expand its nascent arms export sector. India has denied allegations of diverting artillery shells to Ukraine, emphasizing compliance with international export obligations and regulations.

Russia has raised concerns about the supply of Indian-made 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine, with the matter being discussed during meetings between Russian and Indian officials. The Kremlin has protested the situation, but India has not taken any action to stop the supply to Europe.

India has a long-standing relationship with Russia as its primary arms supplier, but it has also been strengthening its defense and diplomatic cooperation with Ukraine's main security backer, the United States, against the backdrop of a rising China.

India has been positioning itself as a manufacturer of defense equipment and is interested in investing in Estonia's defense industry park to produce 155mm ammunition, as reported by Eurasian Times.

It is important to note that India's official stance is that it has not sent or sold artillery shells directly to Ukraine, and the diversion has occurred through European customers. India has stated that it has not taken any action to throttle the supply to Europe.

The situation highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics involving India, Russia, and Ukraine, with India trying to balance its relationships with both Russia and the West.
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Nević Nenad said:
Forget Dugin. His views on geopolitics are not well informed and are over simplistic. For example, India is much more under Russian influence than the US's, especially military industry wise. Pakistan is under more Chinese influence only in recent couple of years, before was CIA's playground, and British before that.
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India being a country with 'LARGE number of small groups', loyalties are not that simple. In the Indian politics of parliamentary democracy, there is NO permanent friends or Enemies. But, Russia is a Time tested Friend for more than 5 decades and when the entire West supported Pakistan, it is Russia that rescued them repeatedly. Worse it has to feed 1.4 billion and voters are addicted to freebie politics, can switch sides ( pro-war and anti-war) even for simple hardships. So the issue is not that simple and it is not India-Pakistan cricket match.

When Trump went ahead with Tariffs, China wanted good relations with India. So China is not going allow its interests jeopardized by Pakistan military's shenanigans and internal show. Pakistan can't live a month without international community funding its basic needs. If China is going to write blank cheque to Pakistan, why Islamabad has to go to world bank begging?

Even the mighty Russia couldn't subdue Ukraine despite all its advantages. True, Ukraine has "blank" cheques from the West,. Even without that it still involved LOT of sacrifices. Dugin's geopolitical analysis is based on the assumption that US has inordinate amount of control over India at the expense of its own interests like in NATO countries. But that is not true. There is serious limits to what US can do in India.
 
The main geopolitical plot these days is to maintain American hegemony and keep down rising peer competitors. In other words, to disrupt the BRICS - or so I thought. I found it interesting that Korybko both agrees and disagrees with this perspective.

substack.com

Ten Points To Keep In Mind Amidst Escalating Indo-Pak Tensions

Everyone has the right to make up their own minds about these tensions and the Kashmir Conflict that lies at their core, but they should also know that there’s more to all this than what they might be led to be believe by the organized pro-Palestinian movement and the Alt-Media Community.
substack.com substack.com

Everyone has the right to make up their own minds about these tensions and the Kashmir Conflict that lies at their core, but they should also know that there’s more to all this than what they might be led to be believe by the organized pro-Palestinian movement and the Alt-Media Community.

India carried out several surgical strikes against Pakistan on Wednesday morning as part of “Operation Sindoor”, which is its response to last month’s Pahalgam terrorist attack that saw the allegedly Pakistani-affiliated culprits slaughter over two dozen Hindu tourists, who were targeted on the basis of their faith. Casual observers might be overwhelmed by the deluge of information being spread by both sides’ online advocates amidst the resultantly escalating tensions so here are ten points for them to keep in mind:

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1. The British Role In Indo-Pak Tensions Is A Relic Of The Past

It’s true that the Indian Subcontinent’s imperfect division between Hindus and Muslims was authorized by the departing British, but the roots of this policy rest in some Muslim independence activists splitting from their Hindu comrades decades earlier to pursue their community’s own interests in this campaign. While the Brits exploited this for post-colonial divide-and-rule purposes, they no longer exert anywhere near the same degree of influence over Pakistan, which has much more independent agency nowadays.

2. Strategic, Religious, & Political Factors Are Behind Pakistan’s Claims

Pakistan’s claims to all of Kashmir are driven by the region’s hydrological importance, its majority-Muslim population, and the military’s interest in rallying the nation behind it on these grounds. These interests are typically ignored by activists in favor of drawing attention to the democratic and humanitarian dimensions of the conflict from the Pakistani perspective. This narrative diversion is meant to make their claims appeal to the widest possible array of people across the world for putting more pressure on India.

3. The Organized Pro-Palestinian Movement Largely Supports Pakistan

In connection with the above, the organized pro-Palestinian movement largely supports Pakistan due to their similar democratic-humanitarian messaging but also out of religious solidarity, though this is only rarely acknowledged due to concerns that it could discredit these movements’ incipient convergence. The reason this is relevant is because casual observers can therefore expect more pro-Pakistani content from pro-Palestinian activists-influencers, including that which disparages India as a “Zionist puppet”.

4. Israel Is Irrelevant To This Conflict No Matter What Alt-Media Claims

The Alt-Media Community (AMC) is mostly favorable to the organized pro-Palestinian movement so its leading voices might amplify the aforesaid allegation even though it’s bereft of truth. Many among their audience want to imagine that every major development across the world is somehow tied to a “Zionist plot”, but that’s not the case with this one. India’s closeness with Israel doesn’t mean that Israel controls it, just like Israel doesn’t control Russia, which is closer to Israel than India is and has been so for longer.

5. The Same Goes For Claims That This Is All About Sabotaging BRICS

Many in the AMC are also as obsessed with BRICS as they are with Israel so casual observers should prepare for a flood of claims about how these tensions are supposedly meant to sabotage BRICS. The reality though is that BRICS isn’t a bloc, in fact, it’s just a talking club that discusses how to accelerate financial multipolarity processes and issues purely perfunctory joint statements every year. It’s therefore just as irrelevant to this conflict, which is driven by side’s conception of national interests, as Israel is.

6. India & Pakistan Accuse Each Other Of Terrorism But Respond Differently

Casual observers might soon hear about how Pakistan accused India of being behind March’s Jaffar Express terrorist attack, which builds upon years-long claims that they might also learn about, yet Pakistan didn’t kinetically retaliate against India like India just kinetically retaliated against Pakistan. This can be interpreted either as Pakistan having made up that claim (and earlier ones) for reasons of domestic political convenience or lacking the military confidence to initiate surgical strikes against India.

7. It’s Worth Recalling January 2024’s Tit-For-Tat Iranian-Pakistani Strikes

Iran and Pakistan carried out tit-for-tat strikes in January 2024 against alleged terrorists before patching up their problems. Even though terrorist attacks have since surged in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, Islamabad no longer blames Iran, let alone bombs what it claims to be terrorists there. This is worth recalling since it suggests that Pakistan either lied about Iran’s ties to terrorists or started ignoring them, with either explanation equivalent to politicizing terrorism, thus casting doubts on its claims about India.

8. Pakistan Consistently Seeks To Multilateralize Its Disputes With India

In contravention of the 1972 Simla Accord, which it recently suspended, Pakistan consistently seeks to multilateralize its disputes with India as a means of rebalancing their power asymmetries. The trade-off though is that some of Pakistan’s partners try to use it against India on this pretext, the partial client state role of which its leadership willingly accepts in exchange for support. This insight directly leads into the last two points for casual observers to keep in mind amidst escalating Indo-Pak tensions.

9. There Are Double-Standards Towards Pakistan’s Nuclear Saber-Rattling

The world united to express disapproval to varying extents of what was popularly portrayed as Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling throughout the course of the Ukrainian Conflict yet few have condemned Pakistan much more explicitly doing the same via its Ambassador to Russia and Defense Minister. These indisputable double standards lend credence to former Indian Ambassador to Russia Kanwal Sibal’s assessment that “Pak is given a pass as if the West and others want India to hear Pak’s message.”

10. Some Forces Might Be Trying To Knock India Out Of The Great Power Game

India’s rapid rise scares the US “deep state’s” liberal-globalist policymaking faction, their European subordinates, China, and some in the Ummah like Turkiye’s Erdogan, the Qatari Emir, and ultra-hardline members of Iran’s IRGC. Just like the West tried to use Ukraine to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia for knocking it out of the Great Power game, so too might the aforesaid six actors be using Pakistan for the same goal against India or to at least contain it to their strategic benefit due to their shared interests.

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These points should help casual observers better understand the dynamics behind the escalating Indo-Pak tensions and the Kashmir Conflict that lies at their core. Everyone has the right to make up their own minds, but they should also know that there’s more to all this than what they might be led to be believe by the organized pro-Palestinian movement and the AMC. India’s future as a Great Power and all that entails for the global systemic transition will depend on how it manages Pakistani-emanating threats.
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So I'm wondering, do points 5 and 10 contradict each other? He seems to be saying this conflict isn't about BRICS - it's about the Great Power game of American hegemony, which necessitates keeping India down.

But I thought BRICS, as a group of 5 nations cooperating on numerous levels, is basically the key threat to America in today's Great Power game? Of course, the individual BRICS nations are a threat in themselves. But wouldn't they be even more of a threat when combined, cooperating, making agreements - as BRICS? I dunno, maybe it's all just semantics.

At any rate, I do wonder if the exchange of fire between Pakistan and India is coordinated between the two governments - and to what extent this is all a big show. Are they presenting a conflict for the public, because they were forced to respond to Western provocations that neither of them really wanted?

And meanwhile, are they negotiating military measures and counter-measures at the political level? I think this would be likely, becauseI find it hard to believe that India would start bombing a nuclear-armed Pakistan without some kind of formal communication.

Or it could be a real conflict. In which case, it may backfire, and galvanize India instead of weakening it - in the same way that the SMO in Ukraine seems to have only strengthened Russia. And, if real, the conflict may also backfire if the goal is disrupting BRICS, because it could push India away from the West and closer to Russia (and maybe even push India closer to China).

At any rate, hard to know what's fake and what's real these days.
 
I think regardless of who controls how much of India/Pakistan, both India and Pakistan have a genuine hatred of each other due to some real events in the past (even though orchestrated at times). And this hatred is going to get in the way of any proper BRICS initiatives. I was not expecting India to drop bombs that deep in Pakistan's territory but they have gone ahead and done that so, this is definitely something a bit more than the usual flare ups these two countries go through. There is an article on Sott today about a possible Israel influence and could be on point. It would be interesting to see how Pakistan responds - they are under immense pressure from their populace on this so, something serious is on the cards.

One thing for sure that, this will not escalate to nuclear war and ultimately, a final solution delivered on Kashmir. The PTB does not want final solutions as that leads to peace and stability following a rebuild so, this theatre is going to get wilder but not to the extent that people on the ground may be vying for or fearing against. FWIW
 
The thing is that BRICS are definitely not just a "talk shop", which seems to be a popular talking point in the West.

The BRICS trade increasingly in their own currencies and coordinate their dedollarization efforts. They are even close to creating their own trade currency at some point to challenge the dollar. Geopolitically the BRICS support each other by refusing to comply with most Western sanctions, etc. They have their own alternative to the IMF and World Bank. The Chinese Silk Road is increasing economic integration among many of them.

China and Russia are already the main rivals to the fading US empire, and India is a potential third with the largest population. Obviously their cooperation on many levels is a bigger threat than any of them alone.
 
It looks things have heated up little more on multiple fronts.

Pakistan sent large number of drones and missile to hit 15 airbases along the Indian border states. They were shot down using S-400 and other monitoring systems. In return, India used drones (some Israeli and home made) on few Pakistani targets. India Claims to hit Rawalpindi, Lahore and Sialkot.
    • Rawalpindi is bastion of Pakistan military. But these drones targeted a cricket station as a symbol.
    • Lahore defense cantonment shield (Chinese made HQ-9P) taken down
    • Heavily militarized Sialkot defense shields is taken down. Sialkot is only 6km from the border, use it for training terrorists . They use and allow them to sneak through under the cover of shelling .
  • Pakistan claimed it shot down 25 Israeli drones.
  • Line of control shelling of Pooch sector killing 16 Indians - 3 woman and 5 children.
  • India seems to have released waters from the Indus valley dam which they blocked few days back. It is expected to cause downstream.
  • Some X users claim that India shot down 2 Chinese made Pakistani planes ( 2 JF-17s and 1 J-10C(E)) . But, it was not mentioned in today's foreign secretary brief
 
Many outlets are calling the current situation as a 'All out War', though Indian govt. call it retaliation. Lot had happened during the last 3 days. Initially terrorist targets from India, then Turkish drone attack on India, India's attack on some air defense systems and symbolic cricket stadium, Then Pakistan shelling across LOC with lot of civilian causalities, then India's attack on many Pakistani airbases. There were lot of civilian casualties on both ends( irrespective of how one would like project)

It looks China sent missiles to Pakistan after terrorist attack on May 22nd well before India's attack on terrorist locations deep within.
  • First day, Pakistan used lot of Turkish drones. There were news that Turkish naval ship was seen in the Pakistani waters and making people ask questions about NATO's possible response (if any) if this ship gets hit. There are some claiming that Pakistan sending its airplanes to Turkey for fueling due to the damage to its air bases (hard to believe at this point)
  • Some claim India has deployed 26 ships in this activity.
  • India claims to have shot down a missile that is headed towards Delhi.
Will this situation become India's version of Ukraine? We will have to wait and see.
 
Well, it looks Ceasefire is reached for now and expected to have talks in 2 days. USA seems to have handled the situation.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1921174163848401313
www.indiatoday.in

Pakistan dialled India, both sides agreed to a ceasefire: New Delhi

India-Pakistan ceasefire: Pakistan initiated contact with India, and both sides agreed to a ceasefire, effective from 5 pm Saturday, after direct talks between their military officials, the government said.
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in
Pakistan reached out to India, and the ceasefire was negotiated directly between the two countries, the government said on Saturday, confirming the truce after days of military action and heightened tension between the two neighbours.

"The Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of Pakistan called the DGMO of India at 15.30 hours (3.30 pm) this afternoon. It was agreed between them that both sides would cease all firing and military action on land, in the air, and at sea with effect from 1700 hours (5 pm)," Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said
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I guess, India's air defense systems worked very well for the Pakistani Jihadi general to climb down at least for now. It is a combination of Russian S-400, Russia-India collaborative system Brahmos, Israeli system, India-Israeli collaboration system and home grown systems like Prithvi and Akash.

www.indiatoday.in

How Indian interceptors crushed Pak drones: Inside the impregnable air defence web

The night sky came to life with the roar of multiple interceptors from India that turned the Pakistani drones into duds.
www.indiatoday.in www.indiatoday.in

It was clear that Pakistan doesn't have artillery even for 4 days of war ( after selling them to Ukraine) and most importantly it was not expecting that India will hit deep with in the country.
 
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