Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

[mabar]

It looks like something like 28? refueling tanks left the US towards Europe/West Asia. At the same time, the Nimitz aircraft-carrier (hopefully a nice target) left the Taïwan/China region as well.

It's not a military alliance.

Interesting take from Eva Panina Telegram Channel

Israel's Failed Blitzkrieg: Next Up: US-China Proxy War

Israel's blitzkrieg against Iran has failed. Now, the US and China will probably increasingly join the process, with varying degrees of direct participation. At first, this will come down to supplying the warring parties with the aim of preventing their military defeat. At the same time, if for Tehran a defeat would consist of the collapse of the political regime and the flight of the leadership from the country with the collapse of governance, then for Tel Aviv a defeat would be even a draw . That is, the absence of the planned result and the transition to negotiations with the "unfinished" Iran through intermediaries, including Russia.

China cannot allow Iran to be defeated: this would be a strategic defeat for China. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil and gas. The countries have an exclusive agreement on the purchase of Iranian oil for a period of 25 years. Supplies of black gold to China in 2024 fluctuated between 1.66 and 1.75 million barrels per day. It is noteworthy that under the 2021 investment agreement, China is investing $400 billion in the Iranian economy, despite the fact that it is under tough Western sanctions. And if in 2023 investments amounted to $220-230 million, then in 2024 they increased almost 10 times - to $1.99 billion. At the same time, China finances not only logistics in Iran - ports, energy, oil and gas production - but also the rearmament of the Iranian army.

In short, even without speaking about the importance of the logistics corridor through Iran for China, it is absolutely clear that it cannot allow the collapse of its strategic partner. And if Iran demonstrates the ability to put up long-term and stable resistance to Israel and the United States - which is what is happening - then China will try to establish its supply with everything necessary for this purpose. For example, through Pakistan. One of the first directions is the restoration of air defense in the west of Iran, where gaps appeared due to the strikes of June 13.

Thus, the more active the US is in the conflict, the more active China will have to be. A telling moment: despite the knockdown on June 13, as a result of which Iran's military command and communications agencies were largely destroyed, Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses on the very first day and found their targets. And they are still finding them. The question is: who helped Iran restore its command and control system so quickly and organize a retaliatory strike, including a hypersonic one ?

It is not surprising that after such a response, Israel and the US announced a short pause, starting meetings and studying the situation - so big a surprise was Tehran's reaction for them. Does this mean that China has taken direct control of Iran's military actions , including the protection of oil refineries, the restoration of electronic warfare and cybersecurity of its ally? And that not only China, but also Russia is involved in this? Especially since the Russian-Iranian agreement was finally sent yesterday in the form of a law to President Pezeshkian.

It should be noted that it is currently difficult for Trump to present ultimatums to Beijing and Moscow on the Iranian issue . Firstly, China is doing the same thing that the US is doing with respect to Israel and Ukraine. Secondly, Trump has just backed down in tariff wars with Beijing - he can't go back to the same threats again. Thirdly, Trump has already shown that if the "attack strategy" fails, he is inclined to "withdraw from the battle" and shift responsibility to his proxies.

So is it a coincidence that by the evening of June 15 the IDF announced the "completion of a large-scale wave of strikes on Iranian facilities related to the production of weapons and missiles" ? Here we are witnessing something similar to the IDF ground operation in Gaza. Especially since the same IDF operation in Iran is unlikely for many reasons, including the lack of a common border.

If all parties take a time-out and reduce the escalation level, transferring everything to the diplomatic plane, this will mean recognition of the new strategic role of China in global conflicts. And that forces have emerged in the world capable of stabilizing the conflicts unleashed by Washington. In this case, negotiations are the best way out of this unfavorable situation for the United States. However, will Iran agree to them?

 

[mabar]

As expected from Israel. It's one of their standard tactics in Gaza.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934647044368453721

Per Middle East Spectator – MES

NEW: IRIB has resumed live broadcasting, the host asks Israel: 'Come on, target us again!'
NEW: IRIB says they knew of an incoming Israeli strike, but chose to remain in place, and they will continue to broadcast 'even without a studio, if necessary'
The IRIB broadcasting building is on fire



(He is bleeding from the hands and still continues)
IRIB statement: 'The Zionists will not silence the voice of the Iranian nation'
BREAKING: Russian news outlet 'Ruptly', a subsidiary of Russia Today, says their building and crew was threatened with an immediate Israeli strike and they had to evacuate

 

[Tristan]

INTERVIEW: We are all Amalek​

​

George Galloway interviews Seyed Mohammad Marandi, professor of English literature at Tehran University.

 

[Beyrutkapı]

I have no idea how, but this rabid Israeli aggression will backfire.

 

[Cosmos]

What I find astounding is that nobody seems to question that "Iran is not allowed to have nuclear weapons", which is also the official reason given by Israel for this war. A country that inofficially and 'illegally' has nuclear weapons attacks another country that is "not allowed" to have them.

I also wonder why Iran has been playing along with this narrative, instead of just exiting the non-prolifiration agreement. Why not just announce their nukes and gain security this way, same as North Korea or Pakistan?

Another thing I wondered about is whether and where Iran conducted its nuke tests. Apparently these tests can usually be detected with 99% certainty by seismographs, unless the test is done during a natural earthquake in the region. Israel is suspected to have tested a nuke between South Africa and Antarctica in 1979 (Vela incident).

As I was watching some George Galloway live yesterday and he mentioned an earthquake that occurred not so long prior in the general region (within or near Iran?) that had the strength of around 4,3, if I remember correctly. Galloway was seemingly speculating there: what if Iran just test fired a nuclear bomb (underground?). I dunno.

 

[rs]

As I was watching some George Galloway live yesterday and he mentioned an earthquake that occurred not so long prior in the general region (within or near Iran?) that had the strength of around 4,3, if I remember correctly. Galloway was seemingly speculating there: what if Iran just test fired a nuclear bomb (underground?). I dunno.

It is highly unlikely that it was a bomb test. First, I’m sure seismographs can tell the difference between a blast and a “normal” earthquake. Second, if it was a test I’d bet considerable $$ that Israel would “go nuclear” in response, making sure the entire world knew it was a bomb test. Iran is subject to considerable earthquake risk. They have suffered multiple earthquakes where hundreds to thousands of people died.

 

[Adobe]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1934414913033633830

Statements by Iranian President Pezeshkian:

Iran’s return to negotiations with the United States is only possible if Israel stops its attacks against countries in the region;

If the US wants to resume negotiations with Iran, it must force Israel to stop aggression;

Tehran will be forced to respond more harshly if the US does not stop Israel.

Z and V

🇮🇷 Statements by Iranian President Pezeshkian: ▪️Iran’s return to negotiations with the United States is only possible if Israel stops its attacks against countries in the region; ▪️If the US wants to resume negotiations with Iran, it must force Israel to stop aggression; ▪️Tehran will be...

t.me

 

[Joe]

But there are as explained in this video with Alastair Crooke article 51 of the United Nation that legitimate the assistance to a country under an illegal attack (war)

Well, that's very far from a military alliance. Also, it has never been used by any countries other than the usual 'regime change' suspects.

 

[axj]

First, I’m sure seismographs can tell the difference between a blast and a “normal” earthquake.

The only way to somewhat "hide" an underground nuke test is to do it within about 2 minutes of a natural earthquake occuring within about 400 km:

Underground nuclear test explosions can be hidden within earthquake signals, study suggests

Could the seismic signal of an underground nuclear test explosion be "hidden" by the signal generated by a natural earthquake?

phys.org

Iran does have its fair share of earthquakes, so it is possible that they could have hidden their test like that, even though it does seem a bit far-fetched and risky. On the other hand, where and how else could they have done the test?

It also depends on whether they constructed the nukes themselves (which seems to be the case) or got already tested ones from maybe Russia (highly unlikely).

 

[mabar]

I have no idea how, but this rabid Israeli aggression will backfire.

It is

Kamal Sharaf's plan for the Zionist regime's attack on the Iranian Broadcasting Corporation building

 

[Corvus]

Lockheed Martin stocks went down as there are reports 4 F35 were taken down because it has reputation as the "most" advanced military aircraft in the world.

Some uncomfired reports say that Pentagon has ordered preparation for attack on Iran and Central Command is for it, but some in Trump administration are against it and he has a final call.

Also from last wave of Iranian attacks most or good part of missles went through so it seems Israel defense is getting saturated.

 

[Ursus Minor]

It also depends on whether they constructed the nukes themselves (which seems to be the case) or got already tested ones from maybe Russia (highly unlikely).

From wikipedia

After its dissolution in 1991, Ukraine inherited about 130 UR-100N (ICBM) with six warheads each, 46 ICBMs with ten warheads apiece, as well as 33 heavy bombers, totaling approximately 1,700 nuclear warheads that remained on Ukrainian territory.

Where did they all go? The bulk may have been bought by the USSR, but a number of them may have been sold on the black market.
More than 15 years ago I read that a psychic had opined that Iran was in possession of nuclear warheads.

 

[mkrnhr]

I think some people within the US regime know that a false-flag attack is incoming. If they wait too long, a 911-eque attack or worse could happen within the US or somewhere in Europe. The other option would be to pull a "gulf of Tonkin" operation, which would explain the seemingly retarded decision to bring the Nimitz aircraft carrier (destined to be retired in a year or so) as a big almost-static target despite the debacle in Yemen. On the other hand, Trump gave up the recipe to drag the US formally into the war: please someone attack the US bases in West Asia, which Israel or some clients will certainly oblige. The assassination of Trump is still not excluded since Natenyahu has put it again on the table.

 

[Ursus Minor]

Taken from an article on the truthseeker.co.uk of March 18, 2005

("The Gourd of Ashes")

"In the past few weeks the Internet has been abuzz with speculation about a pending escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Talk was of a proposed joint US/Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and leadership. Coming just prior to the US elections, it sounded improbable but the case put forward was reasoned and convincing enough. Now further reports have been received.

First, this website received an email from an individual near Mountain Home Air Force Base in the U.S. In response to the Voice of the White House report on the proposed US/Israeli strike, the writer confirmed that earlier this year they had indeed seen jets from both nations conduct training exercises simulating bombing runs.

In addition to 6 to 8 Israeli attack jets, U.S. aircraft and numerous ground support troops also took part. Several times a day the aircraft would take off for bombing runs at a nearby bombing range.

Of course, in itself this does not mean a joint US/Israeli strike on Tehran is imminent but it does substantiate the musing of a psychic friend. Because years before the invasion of Iraq, our friend was saying that America and Israel would strike Tehran but only after America had invaded Iraq.

At the time the idea seemed outlandish, Saddam Hussein was still in power and an Anglo-American invasion of Iraq had not even been proposed, or so it seemed. Now of course, things are different.

Obviously the future is not written in stone, it depends on the outcome of events in the present and our psychic friend, who first spoke of a joint US/Israeli attack on Iran, now, says it is unlikely to go ahead before the US election. This, he says, is based on purely military considerations: satellite reconnaissance has been unable to identify all the targets, in particular Iran’s missiles. So if an attack is launched, Iran will likely retaliate with some of its still undetected nuclear weapons, most probably aimed at Israel. Hence the proposed attack has been put on hold, at least for now.



However, that doesn’t mean that such an attack will never take place. Iranian military capability is growing and Israel and its allies in Washington are said to be in a panic over the perceived threat. Particularly the danger to Israel and US forces in Iraq posed by the Shahab III.

As well they might be. But apart the Shahab III Iran also has SU 37’s and Mig 35’s, both of which are more than a match for their Israeli and US counterparts. And that’s not the only threat posed, for Iran may have yet more tricks up its sleeve. According to our psychic friend, in addition to conventional nuclear weapons Iran also has micro-nukes and neutron bombs, the so-called ‘dirty nukes’ whose punch lies not in its explosive blast but the power of its radioactive emission.

Apart from virtually deriding these ideas however, with talk of “ripping yarns” and “elaborate hoaxes” the mainstream media has all but ignored them. Focusing its attention on Iran’s nuclear reactor, rather than the reality of its nuclear weapons.

Nonetheless the longer the US and Israel nervously eye Iran, the more powerful it becomes. Apart from the Shahab III, Iran is also developing the Shahab IV and Shahab V. Utilising Chinese and North Korean scientists with Russian assistance, Iran is developing these two nuclear delivery systems which are roughly equivalent to Soviet ICBM’s of the late 50’s and early 60’s.

They may not be state of the art technology, but it’s enough to give Washington and its allies serious cause for concern, for the Shahab IV would be capable of striking targets in Europe while the Shahab V would be able to reach mainland U.S.A. And moreover, both missiles programs are said to be only a year or two from completion.

 

[axj]

Where did they all go? The bulk may have been bought by the USSR, but a number of them may have been sold on the black market.

The Ukrainian nuclear warheads were supposedly all given back to Russia, plus none of them would have worked without the launch codes which only Russia had. Iran secretly getting more than 150 nukes from Ukrainian stockpiles (without launch codes) in the early 90s seems extremely unlikely. Especially since all Ukrainian secrets are probably known by the West by now.