Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

Joe said:
In addition, it seems that for a decent number of true blue Conservative Americans, the failed assassination attempt on Trump turned him into the US version of Kim Jong Il. A "dear leader". Something which Trump has, I think, always aspired to be, at least for the adulation.
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And those same pundits of blind allegiance are digging in their heels and shouting, "Are you with us or against us?!!" They imply or outright state that they are leaving behind everyone not with them. Seems like painting oneself into a corner.

This sharpens the division I referred to in post Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel earlier today. 4D STS seems to have found an ideal crack into which to hammer a wedge.
 
ApotheosisMMC. said:
You'll excuse me, Simplicius, but I'm thinking of leaving your complete analysis here for my comrades since it's a paid one and many won't be able to read it. Is that possible @Windmill knight ?
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Simplicius has an account on X which is a way to get an idea about what he thinks. Most of his articles are free, (like 2 out of 3), so I think one can respect his paid service instead of undermining it by posting it here. What he says in his paid analysis are not ground breaking revelations either but what one would also get from reading this thread for instance. I actually thought he might have followed this thread though most likely he just scans a bunch of forums/threads and connect the dots according to how he reads it.

I think it is okay to post small snippets from his paid articles and then for those who really want to see it all, the option is always there to pay the $40/year subscription.
 
So far it seems to me that pundits and others close to the situation did fully expect Trump to give the green light at least 1-2 days ago. So it seems Trump is the reason for that delay because he hasn’t made up his mind yet, or at least, pretends that this is the case. So things appear to hang by a very thin thread by now. What will Trump do?
 
Assuming Iran has nukes here are a couple more speculations why everyone is still pretending that they don’t:

- If they acknowledge it now, obviously, a number of questions would arise:

Since when did you know it and why haven’t you told us even now while you are seriously trying to attack them?

If it had nukes and probably for quite a while, how come they haven’t used it and how does this square with the “they will use nukes against us when they have it“ that you propagated for decades? Is Iran not such a big threat after all, or actually, no threat at all?

If they have nukes and obviously haven’t used them despite contrary propaganda that they would, how come that you now would think it would be safer to attack them, which WOULD ACTUALLY GIVE THEM NOW A LEGITIMATE, URGENT AND JUSTIFIED REASON TO USE THEM?

If they have nukes and you knew it what does that tell us about your sanity/humanity when it is well known that such a situation between two or more nuclear powers could completely destroy not only those countries but all of humanity and it is therefore a very dangerous thingvto attack such a country?

Whatever happened to the idea of mutual destruction?

If they have nukes how come that all the countries that surely must have known that too seemed to have “a secret knowing about it“ between each other? All seemed to have lied in coordination about it, even countries that are, on the surface of it, at great odds with each other, like Russia and the US for example? Why is that?
 
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I think without US Israel has a real chance of losing this. This would have major ramifications for US. (In my mind they’re great in the long term but uncomfortable in the short term). So as long as the conflict doesn’t stop, I think US has no choice but to join. That too has many ramifications domestically and globally and risks major internal turmoil at the very least.

That’s probably why all the posturing on twitter - they want to intimidate Iran into stopping so the US isn’t forced to join and deal with the fallout (no pun intended).

Of course the military industrial complex would love nothing more than another war with US involved, but the potential consequences give them some pause right now. They really need to know what Russia and/or China intend to do - the extent of assistance they will give Iran. Not to mention Iran may also be nuclear which is a huge risky possibility.

China has many strategic interests with Iran - from oil, to the land corridor to Europe, and other stuff. I think China has incentive to protect those interests, but is it worth the trouble? Iran also has other supporters that are not fans of Israel/US as well.

So for US it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If Israel loses US loses global hegemony. If US intervenes but Russia and China step in, US may no longer be up to the task of dealing with them like it could 20-30 years ago. Times have changed. It may still lose.

So there’s a real risk that US - regardless of its participation - loses the unipolar hegemon status, the petrodollar, and who knows what else. Its best bet is to convince Iran to just stop the whole thing, so they’ve been running around like chickens with their heads cut off going between threatening Iran, to saying they have nothing to do with this, to saying they had everything to do with this. It’s like throwing shit at a wall to see what sticks.

So I’m pretty sure Iran has everyone sweating right now. Will they continue? Will they escalate? Will Israel? This is not Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya or Syria. The only way this comes out “ok” is if everyone just calms down. And by ok I mean status quo continues. Which of course is anything but ok.

Part of me wants cooler heads to prevail. Part of me wants to finally get this show going and for Israel and US to learn their proper place in the world. I know this won’t happen without kicking and screaming and a lot of death and destruction, but it may still be worth it if it avoids the inevitable “finer order of control” they’re leading us into.
 
ScioAgapeOmnis said:
I think without US Israel has a real chance of losing this. This would have major ramifications for US. (In my mind they’re great in the long term but uncomfortable in the short term). So as long as the conflict doesn’t stop, I think US has no choice but to join. That too has many ramifications domestically and globally and risks major internal turmoil at the very least.

That’s probably why all the posturing on twitter - they want to intimidate Iran into stopping so the US isn’t forced to join and deal with the fallout (no pun intended).

Of course the military industrial complex would love nothing more than another war with US involved, but the potential consequences give them some pause right now. They really need to know what Russia and/or China intend to do - the extent of assistance they will give Iran. Not to mention Iran may also be nuclear which is a huge risky possibility.

China has many strategic interests with Iran - from oil, to the land corridor to Europe, and other stuff. I think China has incentive to protect those interests, but is it worth the trouble? Iran also has other supporters that are not fans of Israel/US as well.

So for US it’s a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. If Israel loses US loses global hegemony. If US intervenes but Russia and China step in, US may no longer be up to the task of dealing with them like it could 20-30 years ago. Times have changed. It may still lose.

So there’s a real risk that US - regardless of its participation - loses the unipolar hegemon status, the petrodollar, and who knows what else. Its best bet is to convince Iran to just stop the whole thing, so they’ve been running around like chickens with their heads cut off going between threatening Iran, to saying they have nothing to do with this, to saying they had everything to do with this. It’s like throwing shit at a wall to see what sticks.

So I’m pretty sure Iran has everyone sweating right now. Will they continue? Will they escalate? Will Israel? This is not Iraq or Afghanistan or Libya or Syria. The only way this comes out “ok” is if everyone just calms down. And by ok I mean status quo continues. Which of course is anything but ok.

Part of me wants cooler heads to prevail. Part of me wants to finally get this show going and for Israel and US to learn their proper place in the world. I know this won’t happen without kicking and screaming and a lot of death and destruction, but it may still be worth it if it avoids the inevitable “finer order of control” they’re leading us into.
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Agreed. If you take the Cs prediction of the end of Israel as certain, then I’m for ripping off the bandaid. The world has lived on the edge for far long enough. I’m not advocating certain mass death sooner than later (or maybe I am. I don’t know), it’s just that I’ve always been the type who says, “Look, I know this is gonna hurt like hell, so get it over with.” That of course is when the only person suffering is me. It’s not for me to say so when entire nations are involved. But if it’s inevitable…I’m just processing. I might feel exactly the opposite an hour from now. :headbash:
 
Puma said:
Israeli Sports Minister Miki Zohar: "Only the most despicable people on Earth bomb hospitals over the heads of civilians sleeping in beds."

Short memory Israeli
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If only it was short memory, or even hypocrisy, things would be so much easier! But it isn't, because Israel does not even count people in Gaza as civilians. All of them are treated as enemy combatants, present or future, therefore killing them does not count as killing civilians. Even if they are bombed while in a hospital.

And remember, some do not even count Gazans as humans. For the most psychopathic Israelites, only a Jew is a human (and not every Jew for that matter!). It's crime against humanity only when it happens to THEM, and nobody else.

That's what you get when a culture based on being a news lawyer and exploiting every crack in the law to your advantage gets taken over by psychopaths. Cold and calculating cruelty in its purest, unrestrained form. Perfectly logical, perfectly rational, and taught all the tools to not care for anything outside of itself.
 
taratai said:
If only it was short memory, or even hypocrisy, things would be so much easier! But it isn't, because Israel does not even count people in Gaza as civilians. All of them are treated as enemy combatants, present or future, therefore killing them does not count as killing civilians. Even if they are bombed while in a hospital.
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Israel does not consider Palestinians as enemy combatants, at all. They said at the beginning of the genocide: Palestinians are animals, and we will kill all of them.
 
loreta said:
Israel does not consider Palestinians as enemy combatants, at all. They said at the beginning of the genocide: Palestinians are animals, and we will kill all of them.
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Well, immediately after Oct 7, Netanyahu did refer to the Palestinians as Amalek, the Biblical enemy of the Israelites. Amalek was the great grandson of Esau. The Amalekites are described as attacking the Israelites during their journey out of Egypt, which leads to the biblical calls for their destruction. So from that perspective the case for enemy combatants could be made.
 
Evan said:
Agreed. If you take the Cs prediction of the end of Israel as certain, then I’m for ripping off the bandaid. The world has lived on the edge for far long enough. I’m not advocating certain mass death sooner than later (or maybe I am. I don’t know), it’s just that I’ve always been the type who says, “Look, I know this is gonna hurt like hell, so get it over with.” That of course is when the only person suffering is me. It’s not for me to say so when entire nations are involved. But if it’s inevitable…I’m just processing. I might feel exactly the opposite an hour from now. :headbash:
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I think what is happening to the Palestinians in Gaza is a lesson for all of us, or a warning, or a tragedy that concerns us all, and I've lost count of how many times I've read analysts repeating that we will all be the next Gazans. What do the Gazans teach us? What should we learn from the martyrs of Gaza? It's a good question, I think. And not an easy one to answer. And perhaps there is no answer to this question yet. And who knows, the day will come when we will be forced to answer it.
 
taratai said:
If only it was short memory, or even hypocrisy, things would be so much easier!
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And that hypocrisy has also been pointed out in regards to attacking nuclear sites.

Recent attacks on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) have raised serious concerns about the potential for a major nuclear accident. These attacks, involving both drone strikes and shelling, have targeted the plant's infrastructure, including reactor containment structures and power supply systems. Both Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for the attacks, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has expressed deep concern, calling for an immediate end to the attacks.
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A tremendous hue and cry of the radiation danger from attacks on the Ukrainian nuke plant, but nothing but crickets when Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites. This has now escalated to an attack on Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant:
Israel has struck a number of Iranian nuclear targets since launching its attacks last week. But a strike on the Bushehr plant, which is located near Iran's Arab Gulf neighbours and employs technicians from Russia, would be widely be seen as a big step.

An Israeli military spokesperson said on Thursday the military had struck nuclear sites in Bushehr, Isfahan, and Natanz, and continued to target additional facilities.

Bushehr is Iran's only operating nuclear power plant. It uses Russian fuel that Russia then takes back when it is spent to reduce proliferation risk.

Read more at:
Israel attacks Iran's only operating nuclear power plant
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And what's become obvious, forget the danger of attacking a nuclear power plant, but just focus and shout to the heaven's that Iran hit a hospital! Oh no! Bombed a hospital - only monsters would do such a thing!!! Never mind how Israel has done that repeatedly in Gaza without universal condemnation. And so it goes.
 
Just started to look at what Putin just said:

Transcript:

en.kremlin.ru

Meeting with heads of international news agencies

Vladimir Putin held a meeting with heads of the world’s leading news agencies.
en.kremlin.ru en.kremlin.ru

Video:

en.kremlin.ru

Meeting with heads of international news agencies

Vladimir Putin held a meeting with heads of the world’s leading news agencies.
en.kremlin.ru en.kremlin.ru

Among other things he is saying that he is contact with both Trump and Netanyahu and that he thinks there are a number of possibilities to stop the conflict in a way that benefits both parties. So there certainly seem to be plenty of ways to not create a catastrophe there if only we wouldn’t have to deal with a bunch of psychos in Israel and the US. I hope Trump considers those reasonable ideas from Putin.
 
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