There have been a lot of supernovas observed in the 20th and 21st century, though by now almost all are extragalactic.And if that is true, and there was a pause of about 400 years between second and third group, then perhaps the next supernova should also happen about 400 years after the last supernova, which is sometime in the 21st century, and will perhaps also be followed by two more?
According to Deepskeep:
- First extragalactic supernova observed was SN1885A in Andromeda Galaxy in 1885.
- Number of observed supernovae since the year 1800:
- By 1900: ~5 supernovae (mostly galactic).
- By 1950: ~20 supernovae (most now extragalactic).
- By 1990: ~1000 supernovae (almost all extragalactic).
- By 2025: > 60,000 supernovae (overwhelmingly extragalactic).