The AMOC

[Paranthas]

JET STREAM FAILURE CONFIRMED

"The jet stream is practically gone now in the northern hemisphere. I’ve never seen anything like this!"

It's unrecognizable.
It's just absolute chaos.

There should be two separate jet streams in each hemisphere. I put an illustration of what normal should look like in the fist image. Credit to: John Traczyk

 

[Ellipse]

The official science start to catch up:

Abrupt weakening of deep Atlantic circulation at the last glacial inception​

Full article:

Abrupt weakening of deep Atlantic circulation at the last glacial inception - Nature Communications

Zhou et al. report an abrupt weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at the last glacial inception. The observed circulation slowdown could explain the delayed timing of the atmospheric CO2 decrease during that period.

www.nature.com

Published 14 August 2025

Not only do we see collapses during Heinrich events, but at the end of the last warm interglacial like the one we're in now, it happened too. The glacial cycle has Earth fairly warm for about 10 to 12,000 years. Then we spend about 90 to 100,000 years in glacial conditions. We have been in this warm interglacial about 12,000 years. We are due for the drop in the is collapsing once again.

Session 18 March 2000

Q: You also made a remark once that ice ages occur much, much faster than people ever thought...
A: Oh yes, and faster when in response to global"warming."


Session 17 August 2003

Q: (Perceval) Can we expect an ice age any time soon?
A: wait a couple of years and check the thermometer!!!


Session 6 July 2010

Q: (L) What about an ice age?

A: Ice ages grip the south somewhat, but the greatest damage is via drought, floods, and earthquakes.


Session 22 July 2010

Q: (L) Okay, so what's going to happen? Is the Gulf Stream breaking up, and is that going to bring on an ice age?

A: It is, it will.

Q: (L) Is that like imminent?

A: The cause is more than the oil. But the people will only see the oil reason and turn against the elite for bringing on such a disaster. Also note that the nonlinear effects will take some time to develop fully.


Session 8 April 2023

Q: (Obi) How close are we to the rebound of the Ice Age?

A: Soon. Wait and see

 

[Ellipse]

Study, the Amazon would certainly not support the collapse of the AMOC:

The Amazon rainforest and the AMOC are two key components of the Earth system and may both collapse under climate change. Due to its influence on precipitation patterns, a collapsed AMOC influences the dynamics of the Amazon rainforest. We investigate this effect using a coupled conceptual AMOC-Amazon model.
[...]
Moreover, we are able to quantify the importance of the AMOC in this tipping cascade by computing the conditional probability that the collapse of the Amazon rainforest follows that of the AMOC, given that the Amazon rainforest turns into a savannah within 200 years.

Source:
Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest - June 2025

 

[axj]

Study, the Amazon would certainly not support the collapse of the AMOC:

Source:
Quantification of the cascading tipping probability from the AMOC to the Amazon rainforest - June 2025

Apparently there is no consensus on what the Amazon was like during the Ice Age. The leading theory was that most of it was a Savannah, but new evidence shows that it was a thriving tropical rain forest:

https://news.umich.edu/tropical-rain-forest-thrived-throughout-last-ice-age/

 

[Ellipse]

A new study try to model the influence of the Cold Blob. Look like it can accentuate the cooling.

The models agree that the cold blob leads to significant shifts in wintertime wind patterns and an increase in summertime cloud cover, which could reinforce the cooling by blocking sunlight. However, the study also finds that different models produce different patterns of atmospheric response, suggesting that how a model is built plays an important role in how the atmosphere reacts to the cold blob. The findings highlight both the subtle but real effects of regional ocean cooling on the atmosphere, and the importance of using multiple models to understand how these interactions play out in the climate system.

Source:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL117784

 

[Adobe]

​

Key Ocean Current Faltering, Raising Risk Of "Ice Age"-Like Cooling​

by Tyler Durden (zerohedge)
Friday, Nov 14, 2025

"And just like that we're free from climate hysteria and worried about a new "ice age"...Funny how that works, isn't it?"

"The research, from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oceanology and UC San Diego, focuses on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC),"

“Winters would be more typical of Arctic Canada and precipitation would decrease, also.”

Reuters notes the AMOC last collapsed before the Ice Age ended roughly 12,000 years ago.

From the New York Post:​

"Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse — predicting a new ice age"​

​

Articles below:

Climate scientists claim Gulf Stream could be near collapse — predicting a new ice age​

​

Key Ocean Current Faltering, Raising Risk Of "Ice Age"-Like Cooling | ZeroHedge​

 

[Ellipse]

A new study supported by the NOAA and Meteorological Laboratory, appeared this month and confirm the AMOC is collapsing. I wonder about the date they give. Anyway it should stop anyone to talk about that the Global Warning will kill us all by heat right now.

"Future Shoaling of the AMOC and Its Impact on Oceanic Heat Transport to the Subpolar North Atlantic"​

13 January 2026​

According to a large-ensemble simulation under a medium-to-high emission scenario, the surface cooling and oceanic heat convergence in the SPNA may decrease to ∼20% of their historical levels by 2100. We show here that the projected weakening of the AMOC volume transport alone cannot explain such a large decrease in the heat convergence rate. Our analysis indicates that, due to the suppression of deep-water formation in the SPNA, the AMOC's lower limb becomes shallower, carrying relatively warm water southward away from the SPNA. This in turn accelerates the decrease in oceanic heat transport to the SPNA per unit AMOC weakening. These results are supported in other multi-ensemble models analyzed, despite large inter-model spreads.

Key Points​

• Future weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is accompanied by significant vertical structural changes
• Specifically, suppressed deep-water formation leads to the AMOC's lower limb shoaling, causing it to carry warmer water southward
• This shoaling-induced reduction in thermal contrast between the AMOC's limbs accelerates the future weakening of oceanic heat transport

4 What Makes the Future AMOC Less Effective in Transporting Oceanic Heat?​

An important question is what causes the future AMOC to become less effective in transporting oceanic heat to the SPNA. We address this by examining the AMOC's spatial pattern in a meridional-vertical plane for HIST (Figure 2a) and for the late 21st century (2091–2100, L21C; Figure 2b). It is clear that the projected changes involve not only volume transport but also the meridional-vertical structure.

Source:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL119487

 

[Gaby]

Short version: They published last month an AMOC study based on a computer model in order to predict better the AMOC collapse. The computer model shows a two phase shift that would neatly tell us any upcoming collapse with at least 25 years in advance...

In the real world, computer models can miss crucial factors, specially if scientists are ignorant of the many factors. They already admitted that they didn't factored in the "heating up". They don't even admit that it comes from within Earth. One thing is sure, AMOC has already shifted.

Early warning indicator hidden within the Gulf Stream could signal the collapse of key Atlantic currents, study finds

The point where the Gulf Stream leaves the East Coast near Cape Hatteras (bottom left) has been shifting northward for three decades, the new study found. (Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory)

It's possible that the abrupt northward shift could happen without the AMOC collapsing down the line, in which case it may not be an early warning indicator but rather a response to the weakening, she said.

Additionally, the rate of AMOC weakening in the study was likely slower than what can be expected under future warming conditions, meaning that the 25-year lag time could shrink to "almost nothing" and come too late to be an actionable warning signal, Ben-Yami said.

 

[Gaby]

And since their computer models can't factor in that which scientists ignore, it could be much faster

Atlantic current system weakening faster than expected

Researchers from France reached this conclusion after combining real-world data with the latest CMIP6 climate models. This is a large international collection of climate models from different groups that simulate past, present and future climate changes.

Where this study differed from many previous ones is that it looked at more than one aspect of ocean observations. It used an approach called ridge-regularized linear regression to study several factors at once, such as temperatures in the North Atlantic and salt levels in the South Atlantic.

To see if this tool was reliable, the research team tested it on the climate models they already had. They would pick one model, hide its future prediction and ask the tool to guess what the prediction was based only on the data from the other models. They did this for each model and found it was the most effective way to predict future scenarios.

Underestimating the threat​

This new approach found that previous models were underestimating the danger, as the team noted in their paper. "Combining observations and climate models suggests a 60% stronger weakening of the Atlantic circulation than using models alone." The correction leads to a best estimate of about a 51% decline by 2100. "This more substantial AMOC weakening has key implications for future adaptation strategies."

Therefore, if the researchers are right, the system may be closer to a critical threshold than some models indicate. That could have implications for how future climate risks are assessed and how we prepare for them.

And of course, such revelations are always accompanied by a water-downed version of the risks and implications.

 

[Gaby]

"Combining observations and climate models suggests a 60% stronger weakening of the Atlantic circulation than using models alone." The correction leads to a best estimate of about a 51% decline by 2100. "This more substantial AMOC weakening has key implications for future adaptation strategies."

Therefore, if the researchers are right, the system may be closer to a critical threshold than some models indicate.

The above article came from French researchers. This is the Anglo-American counterpart:

Atlantic current shows two-decade decline across four deep-ocean monitoring sites

Deep western overturning transports obtained from four observation arrays in the North Atlantic show the weakening signal of the AMOC at the western boundary. Credit: Qianjiang Xing

A paper published in the journal Science Advances is adding to the growing body of research showing that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening. In this new study, instead of relying mainly on computer models, scientists used two decades of direct ocean measurements to confirm the decline.

The AMOC is a large system of Atlantic Ocean currents that redistributes heat, salt and nutrients between the tropics and the North Atlantic, helping keep regions like Europe much milder than they would otherwise be. The consequences of a substantial weakening, or indeed a total collapse, could be a potentially catastrophic change in weather conditions.

Taking measurements from the deep

To get a clear picture of what is happening, researchers from the U.S., the UK and Canada looked at data from four sets of underwater sensors called mooring arrays. These are anchored to the sea floor along the western side of the Atlantic, from near the Caribbean up to the waters off Eastern Canada. They measured ocean-bottom pressure and related properties of deep ocean water below 1,000 meters.

By calculating changes in pressure along the continental slope at the western boundary, the team could determine how deep overturning currents were changing over time. Monitoring these changes over time is important because it allows scientists to see a clear, long-term pattern in ocean circulation that might otherwise be hidden by seasonal shifts.

The researchers analyzed over 20 years of data to ensure the decline they observed was a consistent trend rather than a temporary fluctuation.

This decline wasn't in one spot but was observed across all study areas, from 16.5°N (near the Caribbean) to 42.5°N (near Canada). "We identify a meridionally consistent decline in deep western overturning transport across these latitudes over the past two decades," commented the research team in their paper.

An early warning system

The scientists believe this area is the best place to monitor the ocean's health because circulation changes at higher latitudes show up on the western side before they do on the eastern side or in the middle of the Atlantic. Therefore, it could act as an early warning system for the entire Atlantic region. The study authors noted that "This decline, observed at the western boundary, may serve as an effective indicator of AMOC weakening."

Improved monitoring of these currents could help better predict future climate shifts and guide global mitigation strategies.

In the threshold of an Ice Age, despite global boiling.