Nov. 7, 2018 - How a Democratic US House could alter Foreign Policy (Alter? More like a "seek & destroy" mission!)
How a Democratic U.S. House could alter foreign policy | Reuters
A rainbow forms over the U.S. Capitol as evening sets on midterm Election Day in Washington, U.S. November 6, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Democrats will use their new majority in the U.S. House of Representatives to reverse what they see as a hands-off approach by Republicans toward President Donald Trump's foreign policy, and push for tougher dealings with Russia, Saudi Arabia and North Korea.
Representative Eliot Engel, the Democrat in line to head the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said they may also seek congressional authorization for the use of military force in places like Iraq and Syria. But on some hot-button areas, like China and Iran, he acknowledged there was little they could do to change the status quo.
As the majority party, Democrats will decide what legislation is considered in the House and have a bigger role in setting spending policy and writing legislation.
“I don’t think we should challenge something just because it’s put forth by the administration, but I do think we have an obligation to review policies and do oversight,” Engel told Reuters in a telephone interview.
Since they must still work with a Republican-controlled Senate to pass any bills, the Democratic majority’s greatest influence will be oversight, the ability to call hearings and, if necessary, subpoena witnesses, as they lead committees like Foreign Affairs as well as Armed Services and Intelligence.
HOW DO THE DEMOCRATS SEE RUSSIA?
Democrats plan Russia-related investigations, such as a probe of possible business ties and conflicts of interest between Trump and Russia.
From a policy perspective, a Democratic-led House will push to punish Russia for interference in U.S. elections and activities including its aggression in Ukraine and involvement in the Syrian civil war.
The House could push for more sanctions, including measures targeting new Russian sovereign debt. It could also try to pressure Trump to enact all of the sanctions in a sweeping bill he reluctantly signed into law in August 2017.
Members of Congress have also vowed to push harder, using subpoenas if necessary, to obtain information about Trump’s summit last summer with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The White House has released few details about the meeting.
“It’s ludicrous that there could be such a high-level meeting between the two leaders and Congress should be in the dark about it,” Engel said.
He said the issue of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election “hasn’t been at all resolved.”
WILL KHASHOGGI’S KILLING INFLUENCE SAUDI TIES?
The furor over the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has added to lawmakers’ frustration with Saudi Arabia over the war in Yemen and human rights.
A Democratic-led House could vote on legislation to block arms deals with Riyadh, make it difficult to win congressional approval of a nuclear energy deal and consider a measure to stop U.S. aircraft refueling and other support for the campaign in Yemen
While Engel still views Saudi Arabia as a counterweight to Iran’s influence in the Middle East, he said Washington must demand more. “If the Saudis want our support, then they have to address some of the things that concern us,” he said.
DON’T DEMOCRATS WANT PEACE WITH NORTH KOREA?
Democrats say they are determined to obtain more information about meetings by Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un, worried that Trump is so eager to make a “great deal” that he will give Kim too much.
Engel plans to call administration officials to testify about the status of talks. But Democrats also will walk a fine line, because they do not want to be seen as interfering with diplomacy and efforts to prevent a nuclear war.
“I think it’s good to have some kind of a dialogue with them. But we shouldn’t be deluded in thinking that they’re going to have any major changes,” Engel said.
CAN DEMOCRATS CHANGE CHINA POLICY?
Democratic House control is not expected to yield significant changes in China policy. Democrats will hold more hearings and demand more briefings, but criticism of Beijing has so far crossed party lines and that is not expected to change.
Prominent Democrats, such as Representative Adam Schiff, who is in line to chair the House Intelligence Committee, have joined Republicans backing measures to clamp down on China, like legislation treating ZTE Corp and Huawei Technologies Co Ltd [HWT.UL] technology and phones as major cyber security threats.
But Engel and others acknowledged the need for China as a partner, particularly in dealing with North Korea. “I think we need to be careful not to lash out,” Engel said.
WILL DEMOCRATS CHALLENGE TRUMP TRADE POLICY?
Like Republicans, Democrats are divided on Trump’s trade war with China. Some party members see free trade as a generator of jobs, while others back tariffs to protect workers in industries such as steel and manufacturing.
While the president has considerable latitude on trade policy, Democrats have said they want more accountability on Trump’s actions, including sharp tariff hikes on China that have affected farm and manufacturing states, particularly in the Midwest. Even if they do not come down hard on Trump on trade, Democrats will ask him to ensure that any trade deal sets labor and environmental standards.
CAN DEMOCRATS REVIVE THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL?
Democrats were infuriated by Trump’s withdrawal from the international nuclear deal with Iran that Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration reached in 2015. But there is little they can do to change the policy as long as Republicans occupy the White House.
Lawmakers also are wary of seeming too friendly to Iran, especially given hostility to Tehran by the government of Israel. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has worked increasingly closely with U.S. Republicans, strong ties to Israel remain a top priority for both parties.
Engel was among Democrats who opposed the Iran deal, but he said Trump should work with important allies, like the members of the European Union, on that and other issues. “I think what we should do is try to repair the damage with our alliances that has been done,” he said.
November 7, 2018 - With Trump shackled at Home, Europeans fear more disruption abroad
How a Democratic U.S. House could alter foreign policy | Reuters
Stymied at home by Democrats determined to subvert his domestic agenda, President Donald Trump could double down on his disruptive foreign policy in the years ahead, with conflicts over trade a particular concern, politicians, diplomats and analysts in Europe said.
Democrats wrested control of the U.S. House of Representatives from Trump’s Republicans in midterm elections seen as a referendum on his two-year-old presidency and closely watched around the world.
The outcome gives the opposition party new powers to block Trump’s domestic agenda and step up inquiries into the former real estate mogul’s business dealings and suspected links between his presidential campaign and Russia.
But on foreign policy Trump’s ability to set the agenda remains largely intact. And while House Democrats could push for a tougher approach towards Saudi Arabia and Russia, they are unlikely to move the dial on his biggest agenda items: the trade conflict with China and hardline course with Iran.
“The formidable executive powers of the president, notably in foreign policy, remain untouched,” Norbert Roettgen, head of the foreign affairs committee in the German Bundestag, told Deutschlandfunk radio.
“We need to prepare for the possibility that Trump’s defeat (in the House) fires him up, that he intensifies the polarization, the aggression we saw during the campaign.”
Peter Trubowitz, director of the United States Center at the London School of Economics, said: “I would look for him to double down on China, on Iran, on the Mexican border.”
“I think that the incentive structure now has changed for him and he will invest even more time on the foreign policy front as we move forward to 2020,” he added.
NO REBUKE
Trump’s first two years in office deeply unsettled traditional U.S. allies in Europe, Asia and the Americas.
He pulled the United States out of the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord, lambasted allies like Germany for running trade surpluses and not spending more on defense, and cosied up to authoritarian leaders in North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Although few European politicians said so openly, the hope in Berlin, Paris and Brussels was that U.S. voters would deliver a clear rebuke to Trump’s Republicans in the midterms, forcing a change of tack and bolstering hopes of regime change in 2020.
Some European politicians hailed Democratic gains in the House as proof of a shift. Frans Timmermans, first vice president of the European Commission, said Americans had chosen “hope over fear, civility over rudeness, inclusion over racism”.
But the outcome fell short of the “blue wave” some had hoped for. Republicans were able to strengthen their majority in the Senate, the chamber that has traditionally played the biggest role on foreign policy.
And in several high-profile House, Senate and governor races - in states such as Iowa, Florida, Georgia and Texas - Republicans closely allied with Trump emerged victorious.
Roettgen said he saw the outcome as a “normalization” of Trump and confirmation that his “hostile takeover” of the Republican Party has been successful.
One area where Democrats could rein in Trump is on Saudi Arabia, whose killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul last month has fueled a backlash in Congress and threats to block arms sales.
A more intense focus on Russia’s alleged meddling in the 2016 election will limit Trump’s ability to work with President Vladimir Putin. Democrats in the House could also push for more sanctions against Moscow, including measures that would punish European firms involved in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
We can say with a large amount of confidence that of course no bright prospects for normalizing Russian-American relations can be seen on the horizon,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call.
TRADE RISK
Trade is one area where presidents can act without congressional approval. And several European diplomats and analysts said they expected Trump to keep the conflict with China alive, or even intensify it, as his domestic agenda stalls.
Troubles at home also increase the likelihood that Trump follows through on his threats to confront Europe on trade, including punishing Germany with tariffs on car imports.
A visit to the White House in June by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker brought a ceasefire. But last month, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross accused the EU of holding up progress on trade and said Trump’s patience was “not unlimited”.
“Trump deeply believes that the EU and especially the Germans are taking U.S. to the cleaners,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official who is research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“I fully expect that if he is encountering political problems at home he will look for new confrontations.”
And right on cue - send in the Clowns ...
November 7, 2018 - Joe Biden leads potential 2020 Democratic field - Reuters/Ipsos poll
Joe Biden leads potential 2020 Democratic field - Reuters/Ipsos poll | Reuters
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden campaigns with Democratic candidate for U.S. House of Representatives Abby Finkenauer and Democratic candidate for Iowa governor Fred Hubbell in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, U.S., October 30, 2018. REUTERS/KC McGinnis
Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden is the early leader for the 2020 Democratic Party nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos Election Day opinion poll found, in a field likely to quickly take shape as candidates seek to challenge Republican President Donald Trump.
Biden received 29 percent of the support.
Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who made an unsuccessful run for the Democratic nomination in 2016, finished second in the hypothetical field with 22 percent. The rest of the poll was tied between Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Kamala Harris of California.
All of the Democrats fared well in a popular vote hypothetical matchup against Trump.
Before a single dollar has been spent on election ads or campaign rallies, the poll found Biden scored best in a hypothetical matchup, beating Trump 51 percent to 39 percent in the popular vote.
The poll found Sanders, Booker and Harris would also defeat Trump nationally if the election were held today.
Trump did the best against Booker, losing by only 4 percentage points in the hypothetical popular vote.
In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots but lost the presidential election to Trump, who won the state-by-state Electoral College vote.
Opinion polls at this early a stage tend to be largely dominated by those with the most widespread name recognition.
Several polls after the 2014 congressional midterm elections found Jeb Bush, who ultimately lost his bid for the Republican nomination, to be the front-runner. Few polls even included Trump.
On the Republican side, 65 percent of Tuesday’s midterm voters said they would re-nominate Trump to represent their party.
Another 11 percent said they would prefer Vice President Mike Pence and 12 percent said they did not know who should be the nominee.
The poll was conducted online on Tuesday and based on responses from 38,196 people who voted in 37 states. The poll is ongoing and will be updated as the vote is tallied.
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