Venezuela: Resistance or disintegration?

Obviously this apparent over throw gained lots of momentum after former Nicolas Maduro began his association with Putin in 2015.


US trying to create "government in exile" in Venezuela — ambassador
6-7 minutes Read
MOSCOW, January 24. /TASS/. The Venezuelan authorities know that the US is trying to stage a Syrian scenario with "government in exile" in Caracas, Venezuela's Ambassador to Russia Carlos Rafael Faria Tortosa told TASS on Thursday

"After US Vice President Michael Pence called for overthrowing our government, our president decided to sever diplomatic relations with the US authorities and asked US diplomats to leave Caracas in the next 72 hours. This is an adequate response which our brave president provided to flagrant interference," Tortosa said. "No country can allow any other country to state their opinions about the internal affairs of the state, especially when it comes to calls for overthrowing [the authorities]," he added.

"We know what the next steps will be. The US will now have a justification [for their actions] that there are two governments in the country, like they did in our fraternal Syria with President Bashar Assad and its people. They created a government in exile, which led to great losses, to casualties, to demolition of the country's infrastructure," Tortosa said adding that "the Syrian people fought back, with Russia's help."

"In this case, the situation is the same. We will possibly look for political solutions, in order to take appropriate action," the ambassador said.

"If the situation becomes more complicated, the decision [to ask Russia for help] can only be made by President Maduro as a head of foreign policy," Tortos said in response to a question on whether Venezuela may ask Russia for help. The ambassador noted that Caracas values Moscow's assistance and political support.

Earlier on Wednesday Venezuelan National Assembly Speaker Juan Guaido proclaimed himself as the country's acting president. Several countries recognized him as interim president, including Argentina, Brazil, Guatemala, Canada, Columbia Costa Rica, Paraguay, Peru, the United States, Chile and Ecuador.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has called it a coup organized by Washington and announced severing diplomatic relations with the United States.
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Venezuela Broke Diplomatic Ties With U.S. After Trump Recognised Opp Leader As Acting President
Snip: 24.01.2019 3-4 minutes Video and Tweets
Multiple reports appeared in the media that Washington is considering imposing an oil embargo against Venezuela if its government takes action to defend his government.

Meanwhile, Guaido, the president of the disempowered National Assembly, claimed that he had entered the office as Interim President of Venezuela. He claimed that 4 of the 23 Venezuelan states had joined the protests against the government and called on the army to support the protesters. After this, he reportedly fled to the Colombian embassy where he’s waiting for the international community to intervene.

Several, Latin American countries, including Colombia, Paraguay, Peru and Brazil, with a high US influence in within the government also decided to recognize the opposition leader as Venezuela’s interim president.
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Yes, things are intense in Venezuela indeed! I think these may be the last days of Maduro. There were huge amounts of people demonstrating on the streets, plus very violent clashes (which is not new!). The economy is totally crippled and suffering from hyperinflation, and most of the continent is hostile to Maduro. The opposition-held National Assembly has been a 'separate government' for many months, and now its president Guaido declares himself president! Half the world recognizes him, the other still recognizes Maduro. The middle and upper classes are extremely upset with Maduro, and although I suspect it's not the same with lower classes, at this point it's very hard to tell where the sympathy of the majority lies, and the question about legitimacy has become almost nonsensical by now. In short, that poor country is now in an advanced state of disintegration.

One thing is sure: There's some people in Venezuela who think that a US invasion would actually be a good idea. They don't know what they're asking for!
 
Southfront did an excellent dispositio with the current issue in Venezuela.

I've a faint disposition that illegal drugs and guns shipments might been what President Nicolas Maduro was trying to stop by rogue element's within his military units. Not enough time at the moment to investigate that speculation.

Notice that the supporting country's of Juan Guaido are major players in the narcotics trade. Via the Deep State.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1088411863027728384
6-7 minutes Lots of data and tweets.
On January 23rd, the US State Department announced that it would not be withdrawing any diplomats and also vowed to respond if they come under any “threat.“

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Self-proclaimed Interim President Juan Guaido also asked all embassies to remain in Venezuela in a statement published on Twitter.

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May 27, 2017 Famous Journalist From Venezuela Says DAI Is a Drug Front
Published on May 27, 2017 / 1:09
 
One thing is sure: There's some people in Venezuela who think that a US invasion would actually be a good idea. They don't know what they're asking for!
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Tell me about it!
I literally can’t speak about Venezuela situation with any Venezuelan friend or family member. I’m just observing all the situation very quiet. I don’t think Maduro is leaving at least for the moment and maybe Russia or Cuba predicted that this was going to happen this way and are helping him to know how to handle the situation for the moment. Venezuela looks now like Syria 2.0, only that this is developing in Latin America and without an army invasion (for now), it’s something bigger than just Venezuela right now. Really don’t know for how long Maduro can’t handle.
 
c.a. said:
Notice that the supporting country's of Juan Guaido are major players in the narcotics trade. Via the Deep State.
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Do you mean Colombia? It's got such a reputation, but to be fair, I'd be surprised if there was any South American country not involved with drug dealers at the government level. Via comments in Spanish Sott, we've had people insisting that even Maduro's family is into it, but who knows if that's true or just part of the campaign to demonize him.

irjo said:
I literally can’t speak about Venezuela situation with any Venezuelan friend or family member.
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What is their opinion on the issue? I'm always curious to hear what Venezuelans themselves have to say.
 
The EU and France are backing Guaido - while Turkey, China and Russia are standing behind Maduro.

Windmill knight said:
One thing is sure: There's some people in Venezuela who think that a US invasion would actually be a good idea. They don't know what they're asking for!
Click to expand...

If you look back in the headlines from the time of Maduro's 2013 election, as Venezuela President, the US had already invaded the Countries oil and gas sector and was heavily bleeding the profits, stripping the National economy of any benefits Maduro went after the banking cartel and oil/gas CEO's who were US proxies about a year and a half ago. Many were jailed while other's fled the Country. Around the same time, Sec. of State Rex Tillerson was relieved of his official duties BUT NOT ONE WORD in the press - that Exxon/Mobile was mixed up with the banking cartel that were ousted? Nothing mentioned of the numerous illegal drilling activities in Venezuelan waters by a hand full of foreign Corporations that were stealing oil and gas, with kick backs going to US proxies. About two months ago, there was a report that an Exxon exploratory ship had illegally entered Venezuelan waters and was escorted out of the territory by the Navy. Exxon put up a big fuss over that.

Looking at a wider picture, take in the timing of Mattis resignation and his insistence on attending a NATO meeting in Brussels in February before stepping down? That meeting is to be held Feb. 13-14. Is it possible, the meeting was centered on a planned US Coup in Venezuela? https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_162470.htm

Is it also possible, the engineered Democratic and Conservative Republican shutdown of the US Government (now entering it's second month) and limiting Trump's Presidential options, while also isolating him in the White House, was to block him from interfering in the Venezuelan Coup? Was Trump aware from his own intel - what was being planned and tried to block it on his end?

* In a month, Venezuela's Guaido emerged from obscurity to challenge Maduro

* House passes bill expressing support for NATO - The bill, which passed in a 357-22 vote (1-22-2019), includes a provision rejecting any efforts made by President Trump to potentially withdraw from the treaty. All the "no" votes were from conservative Republicans.

* As the INF Treaty Spat Heats Up, Russia Shows Off a Missile

Nancy Pelosi was pushing (demanding) Trump postpone his State of the Union address "until the government reopens?" Wonder what is behind that? Isn't it a little suspicious, VP Pence seemingly comes out of the woodwork, goes beyond Presidential Authority, to produce and air a video denouncing Maduro? Is it possible, the State of the Union address has been "reserved" for Pence, as interim president of the United States?!!! While all eyes are on the staged Coup in Venezuela, Trump is fending-off one in the White House? As Trump was announcing a postponement to Pelosi's trip to Brussels and halting other Congressional flights, his Wife and Son were on a plane heading for Florida, leaving only a skeleton crew working at the White House.

Along with Pelosi's Congressional delegation, Adam Schiff - the House Intelligence Committee Chairman were scheduled to be in Belgium to met with Top NATO Commanders and Military Brass at NATO Headquarters. Is the intended Coup being masked by the Government shut-down and Pelosi, Schiff and other delegates were to be instructed on what to do - during the attempted take-over ... and then Trump postponed the trip and temporarily grounded other Government flights?

The State of the Union address is scheduled for Tuesday January 29th. Will the address be given by Trump or Pence?

* Pelosi asks Trump to delay State of the Union address amid shutdown

* Trump postpones Pelosi's trip 'due to shutdown' after she called for State of the Union delay

* Melania Trump took government jet to Florida after Donald Trump postponed Nancy Pelosi’s Afghanistan trip: Report

Is this "maybe why" Trump has been pressured into "not having a meeting with Putin", and why so much fuss was generated because of the Trump-Putin private meeting in Helsinki? It recently took a Russian, to announce to the American public - what was really going on in Washington? Roscosmos chief says US visit cancelled because ‘second American civil war’ underway


Maduro rival Guaido claims Venezuela presidency with U.S. backing

U.S. weighs oil sanctions on Venezuela as it steps up pressure

U.S. rejects Maduro decision to sever diplomatic ties

After upstaging Maduro, Venezuela's Guaido seeks to keep up pressure

As world looks on, Venezuela's Guaido to keep up pressure on Maduro

France's Macron hails bravery of Venezuelans marching for freedom

France would back as Venezuela president whoever wins democratic vote: official

EU says Venezuelan protests 'cannot be ignored', calls for Guaido's safety

Maduro isolated as Latin American nations back Venezuela opposition leader


Russia warns U.S. against military intervention in Venezuela

Russia warns U.S. against military intervention in Venezuela: Ifax

Russia: no OPEC, non-OPEC meeting proposed over Venezuela turmoil

China opposes outside interference in Venezuela's affairs

Turkey's Erdogan voices support for Venezuela's Maduro

Turkish foreign minister says Venezuela may face chaos
 
Here's what I mean when I say that it is very hard to say where the support of the majority lies with in Venezuela. In the following RT video, starting from 1:10, you can see side by side images of demonstrations of the opposition (left) and pro Maduro (right):


This is a take from the air of the opposition demonstration:


This image was posted yesterday and it's a demo supporting Maduro, but several of the comments in Twitter claim it's an old image:

 
Windmill knight said:
What is their opinion on the issue? I'm always curious to hear what Venezuelans themselves have to say.
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It reminds me the liberals here in the USA, most of the people are getting very extremist, it’s very common to hear stuff like “I hope Chávez supporters died” or similar things. And it’s pretty similar to what you said before, they are even willing and wishing for the US to invade the country. Obviously Venezuela hasn’t had any militar confrontation in the past and none military intervention by other country either so people are really ignorant of how that goes. But that tells you pretty much how the mentality of a lot of Venezuelan people (I suspect now the majority) has been manipulated over the years trough the media in this mediatic war. In this matter the US and it’s allies already won.
 
angelburst29 said:
The EU and France are backing Guaido - while Turkey, China and Russia are standing behind Maduro.
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Yes it is going to be interesting how this turns out since at least russia has already started to put heavy duty military gear up in Venezuela months ago and now unverified rumors have it, that more are delivered as we speak.

Russian duma people were even saying that a successful coup is considered a direct attack on moskau, since Venezuela is a very close ally in the region.
 
It’s very difficult to determine whether it’s a majority or not... perhaps the most vocal people from Venezuela are those who have something to complain about, and the means to emigrate and complain on the internet. Perhaps there’s a portion of the population who want things how they are and do not complain, it’s hard for me to say, what I will say is that out of everyone I ever knew that lived in Venezuela, only one person remains there and is looking to leave rather soon, their reasoning? The situation is unsustainable.

But here’s the thing, as much as one could probably make the case that Venezuela is itself an ideolocally possesses nation that is running itself into the ground, the concerted effort of the West to dictate their destiny is equally harmful.

The fact that the minimum wage has to be doubled and tripled in a single year points to a desperate attempt to apease the masses and bandaid an issue that is continuously getting worse.

On the other hand you’ve got the US acting through proxies in the region to sabotage and devastate the nation. From sanctions and speculation to devalue the Bolivar to straight up stealing and funding opposition and calling for the military to overthrow Maduro and not recognizing elections and what have you.

So it’s a very complex situation that has no easy answer, although I tend to agree with Russia in this instance when they say that it’s an internal issue that needs to be handled nationally, but, I don’t doubt that Maduro has himself a few dirty tricks to ensure that so long as no foreign intervention exists, he remains in power.

Perhaps what I’m trying to say is that Maduro isn’t crazy when he says that the US has a vested interest in deposing him, but the fact that he keeps on harping that same excuse for everything that goes wrong in Venezuela is hurting him more, even when it’s so clear as it is today.

He fails to recognize his own mistakes and doubles down on his position and makes the country a bit less prosper, thus making the job of the regime changers a little bit easier and on and on until we reach a breaking point like today.

Not sure if I see a positive way out of this situation for Venezuela even if the US isn’t involved. It’s either regime change a la Americana or for things to remain the same until they get so bad that social degradation makes the country unrecognizable and chaos ensues after a collapse and then a building from the ashes.

For right now, I know the US is crazy asking the Venezuelan military to pretty much overthrow Maduro, something they’ve said they won’t do, Pompeo just announced that they have 20 million dollars ready to be given to Venezuela, which I’m sure it was more of a signal to the military that hey, there’s money in this for you guys.

Without the military Maduro may survive this, but the situation is evolving daily and we will have to wait and see.

My two cents.
 
Yes, it's quite difficult to decipher what exactly is going on. One thing is for sure: the way the US is meddling with Venezuela's affairs, dictating who should be president, is clearly wrong – and as Paul Craig Roberts wrote, it flies completely in the face of those who accuse Russia of meddling in the US elections. What hypocrisy!

Since I'm still inclined to think that Trump has at least a tiny bit more sense and empathy than the previous presidents, my guess is that he sees this as an opportunity to get more money pouring into the US by getting their hands on Venezuelan oil reserves. He just can't resist the opportunity. He might see this as a win-win situation, where he can simultaneously appease the domestic opposition (we already saw that e.g. Jeb Bush congratulated him on this decision) and make the US more wealthy. However, I think this is a very dangerous move which could easily escalate into total chaos.

It's also interesting to note, how the 'leftist-socialists' in the US don't seem to condemn this move by Trump (or not what I've seen). One would think that the truly socialist minded would support the rights of the socialists in Venezuela, but that's of course not the case. 'Socialism' is only supported when it fits your own agenda.

Also, to complicate things, as Peterson has pointed out, communism and socialism are not working and healthy societal models, at least not in the long run. So, in a sense, and please correct me if I'm wrong, Venezuela would benefit from some kind of modernization of their political system...but the thing is that the change should not be imposed by foreign players. And the president should not be a CIA-puppet, that's for sure.
 
Indeed Aragorn,

And that’s just it... the people in Venezuela are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Lousy system or awful servitude to the IMF and the USA.

One could argue that Venezuela has managed to maintain their sovereignty, but they’re unable to do much with it because of ideology and stubbornness and perhaps immaturity.

Venezuela is, in my view, like a teenager that moved out of the house and keeps getting sabotaged by his parents (because they didn’t acknowledge his sovereignty) that won’t let anyone in town help him and is living in a cardboard box somewhere under a bridge, but because of that sense of rebelliousness he refuses to admit that he doesn’t have it figured out and simply focuses all his energy not on creating a better situation for himself to grow, but in merely staying out of his parents house, that’s enough of a victory for his revolution, despite the fact that he’s starving and getting sick. Every now and then they run into each other and they insult one another but things remain the same (although really getting worse). Every so often he hears from his Iranian, Russian and Chinese friends in another town who help somewhat but he’s still unable to pull through.

And the case could be made that, well... it’s venezuela and because of where it is and his geographical relation to the US and it’s resources and whatnot, it’s well nigh impossible for it to truly rebel and succeed. And fair enough, that’s definitely a factor.

But on the other hand you’ve got the case of Bolivia who’ve managed to remain sovereign for quite a while and be successful to a large degree at not going broke and diversifying their economy and keeping its people prosper.
 
What the US has in store for Venezuela is "mass privatization of state assets and a return to a capitalist oligarch-controlled economic system built on “property rights and freedom of enterprise.”

Jan. 23, 2019 - US Backs Coup in Oil-Rich Venezuela, Right-Wing Opposition Plans Mass Privatization and Hyper-Capitalism
US Backs Coup in Oil-Rich Venezuela, Right-Wing Opposition Plans Mass Privatization and Hyper-Capitalism | The Grayzone

Venezuela’s US-backed opposition has pledged to carry out a mass privatization of state assets and to implement harsh neoliberal capitalist policies. The opposition-controlled legislatures declared in its “transition” plans that the “centralized model of controls of the economy will be replaced by a model of freedom and market based on the right of each Venezuelan to work under the guarantees of property rights and freedom of enterprise.”

While supporters of regime change in Venezuela insist this blatantly undemocratic move is necessary to “defend democracy,”
make no mistake, the upheaval is clearly not motivated by resistance to authoritarianism.

Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves and has challenged the hegemony of the US dollar, has long been a target of US aggression. In 2002, the United States supported a military coup that briefly ousted democratically elected President Hugo Chávez and replaced him with the right-wing oligarch Pedro Carmona. US intervention, including crippling economic sanctions, has only continued since then.

Elements of Venezeula’s opposition have portrayed themselves to credulous foreign observers as “social democratic,” but their real intentions are very clear: The opposition-controlled legislature has demanded mass privatization of state assets and a return to a capitalist oligarch-controlled economic system built on “property rights and freedom of enterprise.”

In 2017, the Venezuelan government declared the creation of the Constituent Assembly, to rewrite the constitution. Venezuela’s opposition refused to recognize this body and boycotted the elections. The opposition instead remained in control of the National Assembly and decided to run it as a separate parallel legislature.

The opposition-controlled National Assembly drafted a “transition” law that openly outlines what policies the opposition, led by Juan Guaidó, would pursue in its illegitimate, US-recognized “government” in Venezuela.
Analyst Jorge Martín, explained what this means in an article published by VenezuelaAnalysis:
The “transition law” drafted by the Assembly National (in contempt) is explicit about the central objectives of the coup in the political and economic field:​

“[C]entralized controls, arbitrary measures of expropriation and other similar measures will be abolished… For these purposes, the centralized model of controls of the economy will be replaced by a model of freedom and market based on the right of each Venezuelan to work under the guarantees of property rights and freedom of enterprise.”​

In other words, the nationalized companies will be returned to their former private owners (including telecommunications, electrical, SIDOR, cement, etc), as will expropriated landed estates. It is noteworthy that there is a lot of talk of property and business rights, but no mention is made of workers’ rights, which would certainly be abolished.​

It continues:
“Public companies will be subject to a restructuring process that ensures their efficient and transparent management, including through public-private agreements.”​

What this means, in plain language, is massive dismissal of workers from state companies and the entry of private capital into them: a policy of looting which has already proved to be a disaster in all countries where it has been applied.​
The model of the opposition’s new coup regime in Venezuela — backed by the US, Canada, and Brazil — is the reimposition of neoliberal capitalism and the recolonization of Latin America. Any bluster about restoring democracy is a mere pretense at this point.

Factbox: Oil, loans, military - Russia's exposure to Venezuela
Though China is Venezuela’s top lender, Russia has also been a long-standing ally of Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez with business ranging from oil and loans to military hardware.

Of late, Moscow has become Venezuela’s lender of last resort, with the government and Rosneft (ROSN.MM) handing Venezuela at least $17 billion in loans and credit lines since 2006, according to Reuters calculations.

Below is data on Russia’s involvement with Venezuela. (Article continues.)

Venezuela to close U.S. embassy, consulates: Maduro
Venezuela will close its embassy and all consulates in the United States, President Nicolas Maduro said on Thursday, one day after he broke off diplomatic relations in response to U.S. recognition of an opposition leader as interim president.

Venezuela's political crisis spells opportunity for bond investors
A surprise leadership challenge to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is giving investors and traders a rare shot at a windfall on the oil-rich nation's vast pool of defaulted bonds.
 
There is another thing to consider which is that this escalation in the conflict by the US, could mean a massive exodus. Syria had a population of 22 million, Venezuela 31 million. If this is Syria 2.0, then it could generate perhaps 10 million refugees, most heading north.

This is something that Mexico is aware of, I think, and one of the reasons why they so far supports Maduro in this conflict. If Trump was interested in having less refugees, then it might have been a better option to make peace with Maduro, call of the endless crippling economic sanctions and stabilise Venezuela. Then again, Trump might have needed a little tiny breather in the US, by throwing the Deep State another bone, but it is a very dangerous game apart from setting a bad precedent.
 
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