Venezuela: Resistance or disintegration?

López Obrador assures that Mexico will not intervene in a conflict with Venezuela; will continue relationship with Maduro
By: El Universal | 01/24/2019 7:07

Mexico and Uruguay call for peaceful and democratic solution in Venezuela
EU will not recognize Maduro's order for diplomats to leave the country
Mexico will not ignore Maduro's government in Venezuela.

CITY OF MEXICO (The Universal)
The president Andrés Manuel López Obrador said that although they do not like many, in the case of Venezuela, his government adheres to the Constitution and will not intervene in the conflict, which is why relations with the administration of Nicolás Maduro continue.

In as much, the chancellor Marcelo Ebrard, clarified that the government of Mexico will not break relations or will not know the government of Nicolás Maduro.

President López Obrador explained: "In order not to be mistaken, it is best to stick to what the Constitution establishes: in foreign policy, adherence to constitutional principles that are valid for some reason, is part of the history of Mexican diplomacy, which has always been He has always been exemplary in difficult times. "

In a press conference he listed four basic principles of foreign policy: Non-intervention, self-determination of peoples, peaceful settlement of disputes and respect for human rights.

He clarified that they are not in favor or against what is happening in Venezuela, besides that it may be that "groups, people and governments do not like it but that is what our Constitution establishes and we have protested respecting those constitutional principles".

In the same morning conference, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, clarified that Mexico will follow the position of non-intervention and willingness to contribute to the peace and dialogue process, while noting the concern of our country for respect for human rights.

The foreign minister informed that the diplomatic representation of Mexico in Venezuela is open to what Mexicans living in that country need. (Google Translation)
 
"In a press conference I have listed four basic principles of foreign policy: Non-intervention, self-determination of peoples, peaceful settlement of disputes and respect for human rights".

WITH THIS, THE POSITION OF THE MEXICAN GOBERNMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR.
 
Aeneas said:
There is another thing to consider which is that this escalation in the conflict by the US, could mean a massive exodus. Syria had a population of 22 million, Venezuela 31 million. If this is Syria 2.0, then it could generate perhaps 10 million refugees, most heading north.

This is something that Mexico is aware of, I think, and one of the reasons why they so far supports Maduro in this conflict. If Trump was interested in having less refugees, then it might have been a better option to make peace with Maduro, call of the endless crippling economic sanctions and stabilise Venezuela. Then again, Trump might have needed a little tiny breather in the US, by throwing the Deep State another bone, but it is a very dangerous game apart from setting a bad precedent.
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Some of this has already started, There have been massive movements of people from Venezuela into neighboring countries (Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Ecuador) and the reception has not been nice to witness, in some places they're being received quite badly and being deported almost immediately.

Brazil recently even mobilized its army to stand at the border and control the situation, and Ecuador has done the same, I know from a Peruvian friend that the situation in that country isn't very good either.
 
Venezuela is in the throes of a classic Hybrid War, and analyzing the indirect adaptive approach to regime change being applied there can be instructive for identifying and understanding similar processes whenever they unfold elsewhere.

2019-01-24 - Venezuela: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change
Venezuela: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change - Eurasia Future

The Hybrid War on Venezuela is reaching its climax following the preplanned and coordinated provocation of the US and its “Lime Group” allies to recognize Juan Guaidó as the country’s “interim president” after he swore himself into office on the day that the Bolivarian Republic celebrated the 1958 ouster of a former strongman. The symbolism is intentionally designed to send a message to the Venezuelan people that Maduro will be their next leader to be overthrown, as well as signal to the international community that “the people are rising up against the regime”. This didn’t just happen out of the blue, however, but is the culmination of the US’ carefully calibrated regime change strategy over the years that follows the model laid out by the author in his similarly titled 2015 book, “Hybrid Wars: The Indirect Adaptive Approach To Regime Change”.

What follows is a simplistic summary of what the US did to bring the Bolivarian Republic to the brink:

  1. Develop A Multifaceted Motive To Justify The Time And Effort
  2. All Hybrid Wars aim to achieve something of strategic significance, and in the Venezuelan case, the US wanted to advance its geopolitical objective of totally controlling the Caribbean, its ideological agenda of overthrowing a socialist government, and its economic one of controlling the world’s largest oil reserves in the Orinoco Belt.
  3. Externally Disrupt Macroeconomic Development
The US imposed sanctions and utilized other forms of coercion against Venezuela in order to undermine its macroeconomic development, which was doubly effective because these disruptive measures were timed to coincide with the oil price crash that made it impossible for the state to continue its socialist model of wealth redistribution without reforms.

  1. Exploit Governmental Mismanagement
It’s to be expected that no government is capable of perfectly managing any adverse situation that comes its way and Venezuela is certainly no exception, but the US weaponized Maduro’s mismanaged response to Washington’s Hybrid War on his country through infowars and other psychological influence operations in order to encourage unrest.

  1. Unleash Previously Organized Color Revolution Cells
After having clandestinely cultivated Color Revolution cells inside the country and abroad, the US blew the dog whistle to order them into the streets from time to time in response to certain “trigger events” such as what its Mainstream Media portrayed as “disputed elections”, all in order to catalyze a self-sustaining cycle of Hybrid War unrest pitting “civilians” against the state.

  1. Establish Parallel Governing Structures
Simultaneously with the advanced stage of Color Revolution cultivation, the US took advantage of Maduro’s initiative to create the Constituent National Assembly in order to have the National

  1. Develop A Multifaceted Motive To Justify The Time And Effort

All Hybrid Wars aim to achieve something of strategic significance, and in the Venezuelan case, the US wanted to advance its geopolitical objective of totally controlling the Caribbean, its ideological agenda of overthrowing a socialist government, and its economic one of controlling the world’s largest oil reserves in the Orinoco Belt.

  1. Externally Disrupt Macroeconomic Development

The US imposed sanctions and utilized other forms of coercion against Venezuela in order to undermine its macroeconomic development, which was doubly effective because these disruptive measures were timed to coincide with the oil price crash that made it impossible for the state to continue its socialist model of wealth redistribution without reforms.

  1. Exploit Governmental Mismanagement

It’s to be expected that no government is capable of perfectly managing any adverse situation that comes its way and Venezuela is certainly no exception, but the US weaponized Maduro’s mismanaged response to Washington’s Hybrid War on his country through infowars and other psychological influence operations in order to encourage unrest.

  1. Unleash Previously Organized Color Revolution Cells

After having clandestinely cultivated Color Revolution cells inside the country and abroad, the US blew the dog whistle to order them into the streets from time to time in response to certain “trigger events†such as what its Mainstream Media portrayed as “disputed electionsâ€, all in order to catalyze a self-sustaining cycle of Hybrid War unrest pitting “civilians†against the state.

  1. Establish Parallel Governing Structures

Simultaneously with the advanced stage of Color Revolution cultivation, the US took advantage of Maduro’s initiative to create the Constituent National Assembly in order to have the National Assembly function as a parallel governing structure under the influence of Washington and foreign-based regime change figures.

  1. Rely On Designated Proxies To “Justify” Further Intervention
The next foreseeable step is for the US and its allies to “justify” their further intervention into Venezuela’s domestic affairs on the pretext that their designated proxy Guaidó (or his possible “successor” if something happens to him) might request “additional assistance”, which will likely be covert but could also take on conventional dimensions in the worst-case scenario.

———————————————

As can be seen, the US carried out surgical interventions at crucial stages of the Hybrid War on Venezuela, with each one being intended to escalate the situation in parallel with various acts of terror. Regrettably, there is no “ideal solution” since both sides are “playing for keeps” and it’s literally all or nothing to each of them. “Compromising” for the so-called “greater good” might embolden the foreign-backed “opposition” to “go in for the kill” just like what happened in February 2014 with the spree of urban terrorism popularly known as “EuroMaidan”, though Maduro might come to conclude that this outcome is “unavoidable” if put under enough pressure and could therefore “peacefully accept” to participate in a “phased leadership transition”. On the other hand, he and the military might fight it out to the end if they believe that they have the majority of the population on their side, just like President Assad did under comparable circumstances, though nevertheless possibly portending a similar outcome of a prolonged conflict and what might turn out to be one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

In any case, nobody should get their hopes up about Russia commencing a military intervention in support of Maduro like it did for Assad. It’s impossible for Russia to maintain the cross-Atlantic supply lines necessary for such a feat given that the US has total control over the air and sea domains in this space. The most that it could probably do is dispatch emergency shipments of various weapon systems, but even that’s only relevant when it comes to deterring conventional aggression and has almost no impact on countering hybrid threats such as those posed by Color Revolutions and urban terrorism. Rhetoric aside, Russia’s only real interests in Venezuela are in ensuring that its billions of dollars in loans are repaid and that Caracas respects the energy and military deals that it previously signed with Moscow. Russia would certainly take a financial hit if the US’ regime change operation succeeds and the subsequent coup “authorities” cancel these agreements, which is why it might try to “pragmatically compromise” with the “rebels” if they appear to be on the brink of victory.
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aragorn said:
Since I'm still inclined to think that Trump has at least a tiny bit more sense and empathy than the previous presidents, my guess is that he sees this as an opportunity to get more money pouring into the US by getting their hands on Venezuelan oil reserves. He just can't resist the opportunity. He might see this as a win-win situation, where he can simultaneously appease the domestic opposition (we already saw that e.g. Jeb Bush congratulated him on this decision) and make the US more wealthy. However, I think this is a very dangerous move which could easily escalate into total chaos.
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US seems in a hurry with his fastbacked Juan Guaido self proclaimed president, it was after Venezuela’s deal with Russia that things had evolve rather quickly ...

angelburst29 said:
06/12/2018 - Venezuela signs oil, gold investment deals with Russia - Maduro

Venezuela signs oil, gold investment deals with Russia - Maduro
CARACAS - Venezuela has signed deals securing investment from Russia in the South American country's oil and gold sectors, President Nicolas Maduro said on Thursday at the end of a three-day trip to Moscow.
"We have signed contracts to guarantee investments of more than $5 billion (3.91 billion pounds) with our Russian partners in joint ventures to raise oil production," Maduro said in a video posted on his Twitter account.

"We are also guaranteeing an investment of $1 billion for mining, mostly in gold."
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Aeneas said:
There is another thing to consider which is that this escalation in the conflict by the US, could mean a massive exodus. Syria had a population of 22 million, Venezuela 31 million. If this is Syria 2.0, then it could generate perhaps 10 million refugees, most heading north.

This is something that Mexico is aware of, I think, and one of the reasons why they so far supports Maduro in this conflict. If Trump was interested in having less refugees, then it might have been a better option to make peace with Maduro, call of the endless crippling economic sanctions and stabilise Venezuela. Then again, Trump might have needed a little tiny breather in the US, by throwing the Deep State another bone, but it is a very dangerous game apart from setting a bad precedent.
Click to expand...

Alejo said:
Some of this has already started, There have been massive movements of people from Venezuela into neighboring countries (Brazil, Colombia, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Ecuador) and the reception has not been nice to witness, in some places they're being received quite badly and being deported almost immediately.

Brazil recently even mobilized its army to stand at the border and control the situation, and Ecuador has done the same, I know from a Peruvian friend that the situation in that country isn't very good either.
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And this kind of news shake things more, until proved, right? but I cannot avoid to think about the 1+1 ...

The massive amount of aliens who unlawfully enter the United States after we attacked Venezuela is a direct threat to the safety and security of our nation and constitutes a national emergency????:-(

https://www.rt.com/usa/449655-shutdown-emergency-draft-trump/ said:
Shutdown standoff: Trump prepares emergency declaration after Senate push fails – report

Democrats in Congress adamantly against any funding for the border wall, US
President Donald Trump may be inching towards declaring a national emergency in
order to end the record-breaking 34-day government shutdown.

The White House has drafted an emergency declaration that would direct the Pentagon to
build the border barrier and use $7 billion in various unallocated government
funds to that purpose, CNN reported on Thursday claiming to have seen “internal
documents” to that effect.

“The massive amount of aliens who unlawfully enter the United States each day is a direct
threat to the safety and security of our nation and constitutes a national
emergency,”mso-fareast-font-family:" the draft of the proclamation reportedly says.

The draft was updated last week, CNN reported, citing an unnamed US
official. According to the same source, the declaration would use $681 million
from Treasury forfeiture funds, $3.6 billion from military construction
projects, $3 billion in Pentagon civil works funding and $200 million from the
Department of Homeland Security.

Trump has repeatedly said he could declare an emergency, but preferred to
make a deal with Congress instead. However, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi
(D-California) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) have
repeatedly rejected any funding for the border wall, ever, calling it “immoral,”“medieval”
and “ineffective.”
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Windmill knight said:
Do you mean Colombia? It's got such a reputation, but to be fair, I'd be surprised if there was any South American country not involved with drug dealers at the government level
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Total Agreement Windmill knight!

I called a buddy in the states. He's well read on the activity's of Latina America and it's politics back in the day.
He indicated (IHHO), that information of South American activities was very hard to get as opposed to the Middle East.

He even indicated finding truth of any and all South American activities was at best a crap-shoot, let alone with deciphering Venezuelas past after the passing of Hugo Chavez.

So there seems to be a split within Tweeter and other social media opinions sites. Like others have stated of pros and con's if this over throw is right, and justified. But like Sott radio always stressed Cui bono.

As far as Maduro being corrupted, the Article's below may have some insights.

From Haaretz and Reuters
https://twitter.com/x/status/1088472731421720576
Snip:
Economic and political ties between Ankara and Caracas have grown stronger, with Turkey being shipped tons of Venezuelan gold for refinement and processing
Tweets 11-14 minute Read Haaretz and Reuters Jan 24, 2019 5:28 PM
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has called Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to offer support after the opposition leader declared himself interim president and won the backing of Washington and various Latin American nations.

Socialist Maduro described Juan Guaido's move as a coup attempt. The United States, Canada and right-leaning Latin American governments recognised Guaido.

Economic and political ties between Ankara and Caracas have grown stronger, with Erdogan criticising sanctions against Venezuela during a visit there last month, without directly mentioning the United States or President Donald Trump.

Erdogan pledged to invest in Venezuelan's failing economy during the trip, with Maduro claiming that Turkish businesses would pump some 4.5 billion euros into the country. Politico points out that while Western carriers have mostly stopped their flights into Venezuela, Turkish Airlines still operates several flights a week to Caracas.

Immediately after news of Guaido's declaration, plane spotters tracked a jet belonging to Turkish Billionaire Turgay Ciner - owner of the Ciner Group - taking flight from Turkey to Moscow and then on to Venezuela.
Click to expand...

Opinion:
https://twitter.com/x/status/329608320325410816
Chavistas’ victory
May 17, 2013 6-7 minutes
 
Russia has an interesting observation on the Venezuelan crises:

Jan. 24, 2019 - Medvedev invites US to imagine Venezuelan-style change of President in Washington
Medvedev invites US to imagine Venezuelan-style change of president in Washington

1213020.jpg

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev © Alexander Astafyev/Russian Government Press Office/TASS

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has called for imagining a situation where the US president might be facing regime change like what's now unfolding in Venezuela. On his Facebook page, Medvedev pondered what the American people might think of such a scenario on their own soil.

"Just imagine for a moment how the American people would react to the news the budget crisis (shutdown) has produced a situation in which, say, the speaker of the House of Representatives has declared himself the new president," he speculated. "And how would the existing US president react?"

"When such things happen in other countries, though, they are not seen as something extraordinary. Nobody cares about the rules of decency, international law, others’ sovereignty and, what is still more important, about people’s lives," Medvedev said.

Jan. 24, 2019 - Putin speaks in favor of peaceful dialogue to overcome Venezuela crisis
Putin speaks in favor of peaceful dialogue to overcome Venezuela crisis

Jan. 24, 2019 - Lavrov urges all countries to abandon idea of military intervention in Venezuela
Lavrov urges all countries to abandon idea of military intervention in Venezuela

Jan. 24, 2019 - Guaido violates Venezuelan constitution — Russian senator
Guaido violates Venezuelan constitution — Russian senator

Jan. 24, 2019 - Parliament speaker castigates Facebook for stripping Maduro’s account of verified status
Parliament speaker castigates Facebook for stripping Maduro’s account of verified status

1212997.jpg

© AP Photo/Noah Berger

On Wednesday, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin took a swipe at Facebook blasting the social media giant for illegally depriving Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s account of the blue checkmark verification icon, while bestowing one on the account of his rival, Juan Guaido, the nation’s speaker, who unilaterally declared himself head of state, while US President Donald Trump recognized him as acting president of the Latin American country.

"Facebook astonished everyone most of all. Facebook verified the president’s official account, by placing a checkmark on the account of the parliament speaker. It all is surprising of course when such large social media network that asserts its independence, acts utterly illegally, bending to Washington's will. Following Trump’s statement, Facebook put a verification icon on the president of the parliament’s account," Volodin told journalists on Thursday.
 
mabar said:
Live both (President Maduro and autoproclaimed president Juan Guaidó) press conference at the same time --go figure add: spanish --
EN VIVO: Juan Guaidó llama a militares inconformes a una insurrección en Venezuela y convoca a gran movilización
EN VIVO: Rueda de prensa internacional de Nicolás Maduro sobre la situación política en Venezuela
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If someone 20 years ago would have said that this scenario was going to happen in the future, people would have laugh at loud...
The opossition it’s not even hidden their intentions this time around calling out to the army to join forces. And Maduro jokes on live tv it’s so absurd... I support the “comets” for president to clean the mess :)
Jokes aside, this situation it’s moving very rapidly and what is very interesting is to see the two fronts existing in the world taking their side in Venezuela’s situation. Specially the US front showing their true face once again.
 
This is a post from one of our fellow participants on an expat Chile forum. This guy has family in Chile but works in a technical field in various Latin American countries currently living and working in Caracas, Venezuela.

I can't see anything dramatic happening yet... US support for Juan Guaidó amounts to some bluster and $20 million, like really, less than a dollar per person humanitarian aid? That was a really embarrassing offer. The only real "action" from the US until now is to refuse to withdraw their diplomatic personnel, which looks fine until the lights go out and the water runs out in the embassy.

I'm sure Colombia has lots of troops deployed close to or on the border, but on the principle that if you break Venezuela you own it, I can't see them going in unless there's a direct threat. Same for the US, and the blowback would be huge: before any marines go in and before any aircraft carriers show up, a bunch of people in Ohio and Oklahoma will be playing video games with drones and missiles, and the casualty figures will be fearful. Deploy a reaper to Petare, and half a hillside full of houses and people will come down with every strike. Remember that Venezuela is not Syria, it had one of the highest smartphone penetrations in the world when you could still get accurate data from there, and people are very connected: the photos and videos of the casualties will be posted across every social media you can imagine. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Also, it's a bit ridiculous imagining the GNB will be the leader of a revolt, these are some of the worst thugs around, and Venezuelans are absolutely cowed by them. You look at the body language in some of the videos over the last few days, the GNB drag people out of the crowd, and everyone else gets out of the way. Those guys ride two to a motorbike around Caracas carrying rifles, it would be too easy to bump them off the road and teach them some respect, but it doesn't happen. Venezuelans are good at putting on a show, less good at following through. And Maduro doesn't have a retirement plan. Keep the popcorn handy, this show will run a while longer I think.
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The confusion people (including Venezuelans) have about this situation is largely due to media distortion.

For example, let's say you're swayed by the argument that Venezuela is a socialist, thus dictatorial country. This implies that all information there is controlled by the government, and that any it does not control is usually censored.

But then you learn that most media in Venezuela is privately-owned (by Venezuelan and foreign corporations) - just as it is almost everywhere else - and that they're mostly in line with the anti-govt narrative.

So Venezuelans are in fact subject to the same full-spectrum barrage of globalist BS that the rest of us are, with the result being similar artificially-created or exaggerated division within Venezuela.

From the level of information, if you next look at finance and the economy, the manipulation is equally stupendous. I still haven't wrapped my head around it all, but it looks to me like Venezuela has been subject to about 7 years (since Chavez's death) of sophisticated sabotage in order to 'make real' the globalists' fervent wish that the transformation of Venezuela from third world to first world country fails utterly.

Here's an interview with its Economy Minister in 2017. Sure he uses a lot of socialist jargon, but he also seems to know what he's talking about as far as the fundamentals of economics are concerned. Watch out for the part where he describes the correlation of elections and 'sudden economic downturns'...

 
For contrast, one Russian view on Venezuela situation published on vz.ru on Thursday, machine-translated:

by Evgeniy Krutikov
Venezuelan President Maduro demanded that American diplomats leave the country - but they defiantly refused. This is an unprecedented case in world diplomatic practice. It is of particular importance due to the fact that the US Embassy is one of the centers of the insurgency in Caracas. How can Maduro can and should neutralize this center?

What, in principle, is the need to physically terminate the activities of the US Embassy in Caracas after a break in diplomatic relations?

First of all, this is the fundamental question of power. President Maduro must demonstrate that power in the country belongs to him, and the United States cannot simply suddenly recognize or appoint as president of a sovereign country anyone who shouted loudly on the square. Already there was information that negotiations with representatives of the Venezuelan opposition were conducted last week in Switzerland, and the current rebellion was planned in advance. The decision to break diplomatic relations must be implemented, and the United States cannot disobey the demands of the legitimate authority.

Secondly, the US Embassy in Caracas is almost certainly one of the centers of leadership of the insurgency. And this center must be destroyed.

At the same time, Venezuela will do everything to the last to avoid creating a pretext for an armed invasion by the United States. For this, American diplomats are given 72 hours, during which it will be possible either to try to work out a compromise or to prepare for another development of events. In response, the American side practically stopped the work of the embassy and consulate as usual. Now services are provided only to American citizens who find themselves in a "difficult situation." The embassy staff are allowed to stay only a few blocks of the city, and their children did not go to school.

But the staff of the diplomatic mission, and the mission itself (roughly speaking, buildings) are fundamentally different concepts from the point of view of international law. Armed entry into the territory of the embassy is impossible, it can be regarded as an invasion of the territory of the United States. Yes, and diplomats after a break in diplomatic relations do not automatically lose their immunity, but only part of their privileges. Attacking them can also be considered a violation of international law.

True, it is necessary to make a reservation here that all purely speculative constructions that are not taken into account by the Americans themselves. They simply rewrite international law "for themselves" in the course of events, conservatively interpreting only those paragraphs of the Vienna Convention, which are currently convenient for them.

In particular, declaring Maduro “illegitimate”, they are already demanding the expulsion of the Venezuelan embassy in Washington on the grounds that diplomats should be seconded and represent the self-proclaimed Juano Guaydo. The authorities of Venezuela from the point of view of Washington no longer exist, therefore, there are no conventions that would apply to them. Roughly speaking, if tomorrow Juan Guaido asks the United States to send troops, they will take this appeal as a legitimate appeal.

Hoping that the United States will soften its position, or sensible White House staff will be able to convince Trump (and this happened), it would be presumptuous. The fact is that the acceleration of the conflict in Venezuela is less a struggle for oil than it seems. This is the so-called "question of Florida politics." Florida is an ever-vacillating state with 29 electoral votes, and the largest diaspora in the US from Latin America (including Venezuela). In other words, Trump's strong electoral support for re-election in the future, 2020.

On Tuesday, Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and National Security Adviser John Bolton held a meeting with a delegation of Republican lawmakers from Florida in the White House, which included Senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, Representative of the House of Representatives Mario Díaz-Balart, as well as Governor Florida Ron Landing. A source from the congress told CNN that the decision on Venezuela was discussed at the meeting. And what's good for Senator Rubio is good for Trump. In this context, Trump will almost certainly go to the end of the Venezuelan issue.

In addition, the insurgency is supported by the largest Latin American countries (except Mexico), who have been indirectly affected by the crisis in Venezuela through the influx of refugees, the need to provide humanitarian assistance and reduce investment. In this connection, the diplomatic missions of Colombia, Argentina and Chile also pose a danger to Maduro.

First of all, the termination of the activities of the US Embassy in Caracas after 72 hours should imply the termination of communications, including through closed channels, as well as the suspension of the privilege of diplomatic mail. In addition to the embassy building itself, it is necessary to block American aircraft on airfields and ships in ports that could carry diplomatic mail or other cargoes camouflaged for it. This will exclude, among other things, the physical financing of the insurgency by bringing in cash that the CIA likes to practice all over the world. It is also advisable to suspend the servicing of embassies 'current accounts and even personal accounts of diplomats, since “black” money can be distributed among individuals' accounts for further cashing.

The head of the National Constituent Assembly Diosdado Cabello has already voiced the threat of disconnecting the American Embassy from electricity and gas, which will almost certainly be done. However, this solution is palliative, since the embassy has autonomous power sources, they were preparing for a crisis. The main and most important thing is to deprive the American communications control center. Neither should Juan Guaido himself or his representatives, or his contacts with the leadership of the army, be allowed to penetrate the embassy.

But all this is somehow secondary measures. The conflict around the embassy in the USA in Caracas will almost certainly be used by the USA to exacerbate the situation in the country as a whole. Therefore, now nobody will artificially accelerate the process of physical rupture of diplomatic relations. The question of the external legitimacy of the impostor Juan Guaydo has not yet been resolved, and there is reason to believe that with a jointly harsh reaction of Moscow and Beijing, the United States will refrain from direct military invasion.

In the next 72 hours, a cover-up struggle for army loyalty will begin in Venezuela, and it is vital to exclude the technical possibility to participate in this for the US embassy.

Another thing is that the logic of the Trump administration’s behavior has already ruled out a different path for the Venezuelan generals than the support of President Maduro. At the grassroots level, a significant part of the special forces and airborne troops were recruited under Hugo Chavez under a special program for people from rural areas and poor regions. These units are personally devoted to the current "Chavis" power and enjoy significant household privileges, which is especially important during the period of economic crisis. The generals and senior officers are included in the state oil system, and it’s hard to imagine what the Americans could offer them.

But still, it is necessary to completely isolate the CIA station in Caracas, to deprive it of communication and to exclude the possibility for Americans to influence the situation in the country. And this task is much more important than the formal implementation of the decision on the termination of diplomatic activity.

In addition, it will exclude the likelihood of a split in the army or in the police and, as a result, of a civil war, which in turn may become another reason for an armed invasion from the outside. If not the United States, then Brazil, which only sounds absurd. In fact, it is quite real.
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According to another source, Colombia seems also ready to help at least with neutralizing military facilities in Venezuela.

In the meantime in Brazil, Bolsonaro family gets in a serious trouble. Intercept article here, G. Greenwald's video presentation below, best part in the 2nd half of it. Does it lower the chance of Brazilian military aggression against Venezuela?

 
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