Airasia QZ8501 Missing

[treesparrow]

8:09 am

The plane was between Tanjung Pandan in Indonesia and the town of Pontianak on Borneo island when it disappeared.

Tanjung Pandan is the main town on Belitung island, roughly half way between Surabaya and Singapore, and there was bad weather over the island at the time.

The last communication between QZ8501's pilot and air traffic control was when he requested to increase his altitude to 34,000 feet due to bad weather

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-airasia-flight-qz8501-live-4882652

 

[rylek]

Flightradar24

This is an estimated position of #QZ8501 at 23:18 UTC when AirNav Indonesia say they lost radar contact

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/media

Edit: click image to enlarge

 

[Dirgni]

Problems with another Air Asia aircraft: Flight AK6242 makes emergency landing due to technical difficulties:
http://www.sott.net/article/290669-Problems-with-another-Air-Asia-aircraft-Flight-AK6242-makes-emergency-landing-due-to-technical-difficulties

 

[Mikey]

I wonder if that is a typical 'no show' number? Does seem quite a lot.

Mean no-show rate = 9.95%, from study:

Passenger-Based Predictive Modeling of Airline No-show Rates
_http://www.msci.memphis.edu/~linki/7118papers/Lawrence03Passenger.pdf

So for this plane the average 10% no-show would have been 17 or 18 people. So, the actual 23 is only 5-6 above average.

 

[Duke]

9:03 am

Flight manifest released

A flight manifest for Flight QZ8501 has been released with the Indonesian transport ministry.

It lists 154 people as having boarded, while 23 people did not show up for the flight.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/missing-airasia-flight-qz8501-live-4882652

I wonder if that is a typical 'no show' number? Does seem quite a lot.

This the very same question that jumped into my head as I read that number..... 23 Hmmm That's 15% of the flight. That's seems like a hell of a lot? Be nice to know the nationality on those who didn't get aboard.......
Heart breaking when you look at the breakdown M-70, F-68, Children 16 and 1 infant

 

[SeekinTruth]

We'll have to wait for more information, but it sure is curious. Also, it will be interesting how the media circus will cover this one if it is not found and no traces of it are found either, like MH370.

 

[Laura]

CNN breaking news alert:

The search for missing AirAsia Flight QZ 8501 has been halted for the night, but big ships won't return to shore and will leave their searchlights on, according to the Indonesian Transportation Ministry.

The jet carrying 162 people lost contact with Indonesian air traffic control early Sunday over the Java Sea, gripping Southeast Asia with a second missing plane crisis in less than a year.

Before communication was lost, the captain asked permission to climb to a higher altitude because of bad weather, officials said.

 

[lostinself]

We'll have to wait for more information, but it sure is curious. Also, it will be interesting how the media circus will cover this one if it is not found and no traces of it are found either, like MH370.

Yeah, the water seems to be very shallow across the whole Java Sea - 150 feet at average - so they'll have to employ all their creativity to provide a "rational" explanation if no wreckage is found there.

 

[seek10]

So for this plane the average 10% no-show would have been 17 or 18 people. So, the actual 23 is only 5-6 above average.

_https://www.yahoo.com/travel/people-who-escaped-the-death-on-air-asia-106416418947.html

Two families are thanking their lucky stars that they missed their bookings on doomed Air Asia flight QZ 8501 from Surabaya, Indonesia to Singapore, which lost contact with air traffic control over the Java Sea yesterday.

A sick family member saved the lives of Chandra Susanto, his wife Inge, and their three children Christopher,10, Nadine, 7, and Felix, 5.

 

[Vulcan59]

<snipped> That's seems like a hell of a lot? Be nice to know the nationality on those who didn't get aboard.......
Heart breaking when you look at the breakdown M-70, F-68, Children 16 and 1 infant

The manifest doesn't show nationality but judging by the names on the list, all the no shows were Indonesians.

_http://www.dephub.go.id/public/0506_001%20PAX%20AWQ8501.pdf

There is also a load, trim sheet and fuel plan of the flight.

_http://www.dephub.go.id/public/0507_001%20AWQ8501.pdf

 

[Joe]

CNN breaking news alert:

The search for missing AirAsia Flight QZ 8501 has been halted for the night, but big ships won't return to shore and will leave their searchlights on, according to the Indonesian Transportation Ministry.

The jet carrying 162 people lost contact with Indonesian air traffic control early Sunday over the Java Sea, gripping Southeast Asia with a second missing plane crisis in less than a year.

Before communication was lost, the captain asked permission to climb to a higher altitude because of bad weather, officials said.

The request to climb higher due to storm clouds is reminiscent of AF447, which was the last Airbus to go down in mysterious circumstances. As I wrote at the time, an overhead meteorite explosion was probably responsible.

What are they hiding? Flight 447 and Tunguska Type Events

 

[Keit]

What the heck is up with these Asia flights? Is there some bubble of thinning density border?

Who knows, maybe it's the Universe's way to draw attention, like the saying that "lighting never strikes the same place twice", and here something happens again and again.

 

[angelburst29]

While looking for additional information, came across this article:

Map: 84 Planes That've Vanished

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 is the 84th plane to go mysteriously missing since 1948. A new visualization maps out this history of lost flights.

_http://www.fastcodesign.com/3027794/infographic-of-the-day/infographic-84-planes-thatve-vanished-off-the-face-of-the-earth?fullsite&partner=ps02101titles

A new map by Bloomberg Visual Data charts the disappearances and large aircraft searches from 1948 on. It leaves us with far more questions than answers—whether these vanished planes are miles deep on an ocean floor or stranded on enchanted islands a la Lost, we may never know.

In the 1940s and '50s, when communication technology was still in its primitive stages, such disappearances were more common. But there's only one flight in recent history that disappeared without a trace for as long as Malaysia 370 has. In 2007, it took a team of 3,600 people 10 days to locate Adam Air Flight 574 after it crashed into the sea near Sulawesi Island in Indonesia, and it took even more time to figure out the cause of the crash (pilot error and a faulty navigation device).

No discernible patterns emerge on this map, besides the fact that the most commonly disappeared plane model is the Douglas DC-3—19 of which have gone missing—and that five aircraft were swallowed up in or around the supposedly paranormal Bermuda Triangle. What does that teach us, other than that the paranoid should perhaps avoid flying on DC-3s over the Bermuda Triangle?

The history of flight disappearances suggests that even if Flight 370 isn't located in the near future, it could resurface decades down the line. One Boeing 727 that took off in 1985 wasn't discovered until 2006, when a group of hikers found its wreckage in a glacier on Mount Illimani, Bolivia's second-highest peak.

Map:
_http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2014-03-13/vanishing-planes-mapped-since-1948.html

 

[domi]

What the heck is up with these Asia flights? Is there some bubble of thinning density border?

A storm means electrical activity (-> electro-magnetism) which I guess could lead to all kinds of interesting things like density windows opening.
Perhaps there is some gravitational or electrical thing going on on the ground in that area that makes it more prone for this type of thing.

 

[Laura]

If one removes those planes that were ultimately found crashed somewhere, what might the graphic look like?