Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

[JEEP]

As expected:

The fuse is lit. Iran’s parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Not a bluff. Not a leak. A formal vote. The chamber stood and backed the move unanimously. The final call now sits with the Supreme National Security Council and Ayatollah Khamenei. That’s the last gate. If they sign off, the Strait shuts.

This isn’t just a regional tantrum. The Strait of Hormuz is the artery. It moves nearly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil. That’s 21 million barrels per day. The waterway is 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. The shipping lanes are only 3 kilometers across in each direction. One mine, one missile, one blockade — and the global energy market convulses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936614073367507267

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936638251173060758

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936772888528556209

Now they’re talking about the Red Sea. Iranian officials say it’s not just Hormuz anymore. The Red Sea is on the table. That’s a second chokepoint. That’s Suez Canal traffic. That’s global shipping lanes. That’s container vessels rerouting around Africa. That’s weeks added to delivery times and billions in added fuel costs.

The probability models are shifting. Analysts now peg the chance of a Hormuz closure at 55% before the end of 2025. That’s not a fringe scenario. That’s coin-flip territory. Oil traders are watching tanker routes. Insurance premiums are rising. Brent futures are frozen until Monday. If the Strait closes, $100 oil is the floor. Some models show $130 if the shutdown lasts more than two weeks.

Iran’s parliament doesn’t control the military. But this vote wasn’t symbolic. It was a signal. The Revolutionary Guard’s National Security Commission backed it. Commander Ismail Kowsari said the decision was “reached unanimously.” That’s not noise. That’s alignment.

The world is watching the Supreme Leader now. If Khamenei signs off, the Strait closes. If the Strait closes, the global economy gets punched in the ribs. Inflation returns. Supply chains buckle. Central banks freeze. And the next move belongs to the tankers.

Iran’s parliament votes to close the Strait of Hormuz. Red Sea next. Oil markets frozen. Global supply chain on edge. - Citizen Watch Report

The fuse is lit. Iran’s parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Not a bluff. Not a leak. A formal vote. The chamber stood and backed the move - Citizen Watch Report

citizenwatchreport.com

 

[sToRmR1dR]

A several Iranian military vessels reached the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian parliament voted to close it.

 

[JEEP]

As suspected:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936741376097673543

 

[Cosmos]

These people are walking parody accounts

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936747900601565319

Indeed. You can see it right at the first couple of seconds:

 

[ApotheosisMMC.]

More reports suggest that certain pre-attack conversations took place between Washington and Iran:

US warned Iran in advance of ‘one-off’ strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – report
It was reported that US officials “reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday” to say the strikes were all the United States planned and that no wider war was intended.
Washington privately told Tehran that the overnight bombing of Iran’s three main nuclear sites would be a single, limited operation and that the White House was not seeking regime change, according to matching accounts by Reuters and CBS News.

How was the warning delivered?
CBS reported that US officials “reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday” to say the strikes were all the United States planned and that no wider war was intended. Reuters quoted US sources repeating the same message and noting it was passed hours before the first bombs fell.

Iranian officials subsequently evacuated “most” enriched-uranium stocks from Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan before impact, an Iranian source told the regional site Amwaj media. The Indian NDTV also reported on Sunday that the US updated the Iranian regime before the attack, about 24 hours beforehand. According to the report, the information was passed on to Iran through a third Middle Eastern country, without mentioning it.

Washington informed Tehran ahead of strikes on Iran's nuclear sites | The Jerusalem Post

It was reported that US officials “reached out to Iran diplomatically on Saturday” to say the strikes were all the United States planned and that no wider war was intended.

www.jpost.com

Photos from June 19th showing a large number of trucks at the Fordow base and one from the 21st showing that the entrances have apparently been covered with earth:



Damage to the Nanatz base. The photo isn't very clear, but it doesn't look entirely like a bunker-penetrating bomb attack to me:



Damage to the Isfahan plant from Tomahawk missiles, which is more superficial in nature, is where uranium is transformed into uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas. This gas is essential for powering the centrifuges at Fordow and Natanz:



Let's remember this anyway:

IAEA's Director Rafael Grossi said this on June 6:

Worse, Iran's nuclear capabilities could not be destroyed with a single surgical strike. "The most sensitive things are half a mile underground - I have been there many times," he says. "To get there you take a spiral tunnel down, down, down."

 

[WhiteMountain]

Let’s hypothesize:

North-Korea (or a similarity aligned country) delivers nukes to Iran (in reality or not). It becomes official now that Iran has nukes “and North-Korea send them“. What then? How will Trump and/or his deepstate ear whisperers respond? Threatening North-Korea now and/or attacking them? Clearly, Russia is in military alliance with North Korea(?). So, would he and/or they really do something? Would this force the Trump/Deepstate side to finally truly take serious the idea of denuclearization of the middle east, INCLUDING Israel, verified by states outside of the conflict? Trump safes face by making a “huge deal“ and defusing the situation, essentially having no other option left and becoming “world peacemaker“? The crazies loose their minds even further and make more mistakes including potentially fatal ones?

Tore said last night on her livestream before the speech explaining the supposed rationale for the strike (I doubt the veracity given the reports Trump has been in on this for months, etc., it is probably what they say to the MAGA base to keep them on board while trying to extricate from this disaster) being to keep Israel from launching nukes, she did say watch what North Korea does next. So I assume this was anticipated / planned.

 

[SOTTREADER]

The perspective of the chinese highschool teacher / professor... not saying it's true, just a different perspective from a well educated man.

Game Theory Analysis​

To understand the motivations of each player, we must consider three critical questions:

1. How do they perceive the game?
2. What are their interests and goals?
3. What is their optimal strategy to achieve these goals?

Iran's Perspective​

Iran views the conflict as an opportunity to achieve several strategic objectives:

• National Unity: The Iranian regime, facing internal dissent due to sanctions and mismanagement, could leverage an external threat to unify the populace behind its leadership.
• Elimination of U.S. Presence: Iran aims to expel American forces from the Middle East, potentially trapping them in a quagmire that would be difficult to escape.
• Global Legitimacy: A victory over the U.S. could position Iran as a leader in the Muslim world, surpassing traditional powers like Saudi Arabia.

To achieve these goals, Iran's optimal strategy involves provoking the U.S. into a conflict that forces ground troop deployment, knowing that conventional warfare is not in their favor.

Israel's Interests​

While Israel and the U.S. are often seen as allies, their interests diverge significantly:

• Greater Israel Project: Some factions within Israel aspire to expand their territory, which they believe was divinely promised. This ambition could conflict with U.S. interests in maintaining a balance of power in the region.
• Entangling the U.S.: By encouraging the U.S. to engage in a prolonged conflict with Iran, Israel could weaken both nations, allowing it to emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East.

The United States' Dilemma​

The U.S. is caught in a complex web of interests:

• Avoiding Ground Troops: The American public is largely opposed to ground troop deployments, fearing casualties and civil unrest. The U.S. aims to achieve its objectives through airstrikes and support for regime change without direct military involvement.
• Political Dynamics: Under President Trump, the U.S. strategy may shift. Trump’s focus on maintaining political power and addressing perceived injustices could lead him to support ground troop deployment, despite the risks involved.

The Interplay of Interests​

Interestingly, all three players—Iran, Israel, and the U.S.—may find themselves inadvertently aligned in their desire for the U.S. to deploy ground troops:

• Iran seeks to trap the U.S. in a conflict.
• Israel aims to weaken both the U.S. and Iran.
• Trump may see an opportunity to bolster his political standing by engaging in a conflict that could destabilize the American Empire.

Conclusion​

The current geopolitical landscape is fraught with tension and uncertainty. The potential for ground troop deployment in Iran raises significant questions about the future of U.S. foreign policy and the stability of the Middle East. As the situation evolves, it is crucial to understand the underlying motivations of each player and the implications of their strategies. The next phase of this conflict may not only reshape the region but could also have profound effects on global politics.

In upcoming discussions, we will explore the religious dimensions driving this conflict, particularly how various factions perceive this war as a fulfillment of biblical prophecy, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

He said that following last night's US bombing, Iran can dictate Americas next move. He says America has limited options by being the dominant player on the chessboard - he uses the analogy of being bullied by a bigger kid at school. He says, if you punch the bigger kid who is a bully and twice your size, he really has no option but to punch you back quite hard as otherwise he losses legitimacy. However, if the bully punches you first, you have more options, you don't have to punch back but you can work the situation to the bully's disadvantage by taking other options.

So I guess the question which no one is asking is, what does Iran actually want to achieve from its conflict with the US. Is it simply pure survival because America is the baddest country ever that can't ever be challenged or are they playing a different game a.k.a. some 4D chess?

 

[WhiteMountain]

As expected:

The fuse is lit. Iran’s parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Not a bluff. Not a leak. A formal vote. The chamber stood and backed the move unanimously. The final call now sits with the Supreme National Security Council and Ayatollah Khamenei. That’s the last gate. If they sign off, the Strait shuts.

This isn’t just a regional tantrum. The Strait of Hormuz is the artery. It moves nearly 25% of the world’s seaborne oil. That’s 21 million barrels per day. The waterway is 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. The shipping lanes are only 3 kilometers across in each direction. One mine, one missile, one blockade — and the global energy market convulses.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936614073367507267

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936638251173060758

https://twitter.com/x/status/1936772888528556209

Now they’re talking about the Red Sea. Iranian officials say it’s not just Hormuz anymore. The Red Sea is on the table. That’s a second chokepoint. That’s Suez Canal traffic. That’s global shipping lanes. That’s container vessels rerouting around Africa. That’s weeks added to delivery times and billions in added fuel costs.

The probability models are shifting. Analysts now peg the chance of a Hormuz closure at 55% before the end of 2025. That’s not a fringe scenario. That’s coin-flip territory. Oil traders are watching tanker routes. Insurance premiums are rising. Brent futures are frozen until Monday. If the Strait closes, $100 oil is the floor. Some models show $130 if the shutdown lasts more than two weeks.

Iran’s parliament doesn’t control the military. But this vote wasn’t symbolic. It was a signal. The Revolutionary Guard’s National Security Commission backed it. Commander Ismail Kowsari said the decision was “reached unanimously.” That’s not noise. That’s alignment.

The world is watching the Supreme Leader now. If Khamenei signs off, the Strait closes. If the Strait closes, the global economy gets punched in the ribs. Inflation returns. Supply chains buckle. Central banks freeze. And the next move belongs to the tankers.

Iran’s parliament votes to close the Strait of Hormuz. Red Sea next. Oil markets frozen. Global supply chain on edge. - Citizen Watch Report

The fuse is lit. Iran’s parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. Not a bluff. Not a leak. A formal vote. The chamber stood and backed the move - Citizen Watch Report

citizenwatchreport.com

There is a good chance they might not do this. As Scott Ritter brought up this morning, Iran like Russia is a big believer in international law, and since none of the Gulf states allowed the US to attack from its bases Iran has no justification for a blanket closing of the strait under international law. Russians might council them the same. And it would almost guarantee escalation. Then again Iran promised they would close the strait so they supposedly would have to back that up; but they had promised that on ANY strike including the Israeli one and they did not escalate it then. So chances are the final approval will not be given unless they just come out and say, "what the hell does international law mean anymore when it has been repeatedly violated over the last week and change!" If the security council does nothing maybe they do a selective blockade saying to Arab nations you can ship to China, India etc but not the west.

 

[SOTTREADER]

There is a good chance they might not do this. As Scott Ritter brought up this morning, Iran like Russia is a big believer in international law, and since none of the Gulf states allowed the US to attack from its bases Iran has no justification for a blanket closing of the strait under international law. Russians might council them the same. And it would almost guarantee escalation. Then again Iran promised they would close the strait so they supposedly would have to back that up; but they had promised that on ANY strike including the Israeli one and they did not escalate it then. So chances are the final approval will not be given unless they just come out and say, "what the hell does international law mean anymore when it has been repeatedly violated over the last week and change!" If the security council does nothing maybe they do a selective blockade saying to Arab nations you can ship to China, India etc but not the west.

I don't think Iran will shut the strait or attack American bases... it'll only do that when it wants to escalate the conflict with the US.

Eventually the ladder of escalation with the US will lead to ground troops but lets see what these great powers end up doing. One thing is for certain, Israel is probably all in after all the damage it has been getting from Iranian missiles and Bibi remaining in power probably depends on Israel ensuring America goes all in.

 

[seek10]

Not sure how true this was, but there is some truth. Interesting video on 7 levels of possible interruptions before Iranian missile reaches from launch to Israel.

https://www.tiktok.com/video/7517400175388757303

 

[WhiteMountain]

I just heard something interesting. Iran said they would target the bases used in any attack. Well the most forward target base the US used was ISRAEL. So the response to the US could actually be the heightened and continual bombing of Israel itself :) Which they have been doing, so no reason for the US to respond any more than it has.

 

[Joe]

Iran’s parliament just voted to close the Strait of Hormuz

That phrase "close the strait of hormuz" is used a lot these days. But the strait has no gates and cannot be "closed" in the way that the phrase implies.

 

[axj]

Israel says that they do not want to wait two weeks and they will attack the Fordow nuclear site, and that in the same call, Vice President JD Vance pushed back, saying the United States shouldn’t be directly involved and suggesting that the Israelis were going to drag the country into war

Since JD Vance was opposed to the US attack, this does seem to suggest that the Zionists and Technocrats are not exactly working together.

This, in turn, makes it more likely that Trump's sudden change of heart regarding Israel was connected to his falling out with Musk right before that. Trump may have willingly or unwillingly diminished his behind-the-scenes cooperation with the Technocrats and pivoted to the Zionists instead - his other powerful "allies".

There is no sign that Trump is aware of the Technocrat plan for a digital slavery system yet, so I wonder if it was really just Musk acting erratically that caused this apparent split.

 

[mantle]

The religious dimensions of Iran are interesting because its hostilities begin way back in the book of Genesis.
Elam , Medea , Isaiah 41 , Jeremiah , Daniel and Ezekiel all contribute. Read all about it.
In the ancient worlds Persia has been a leading power centre , building and bringing down great world civilisations, and has also eaten great portions of flesh. Iran's ancient name called Persia has not cowered but negotiated and has also endured and was also brought down into ash and rubble. Great prophets have lived in its bowels and the star gazers that worshipped the birth of the Messiah's arrival from eternity into Time departed from hence.
Behind it all there is the Demiurge causing disorder and trauma and in the book of Revelation I Iran holds a mayor place in its war against Israel.

 

[gottathink]

I feel like we are living a blockbuster epic, it’s all so surreal. I sense that gradually the STS forces are exposing themselves by who they align with. If only more and more nations and people start to SEE it, then we could imagine a world united in throwing off the manipulations of the dictators in the shadows. If we can do anything at all it’s meditate on that.