Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

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I was just listening to Tore Maras's live post mortem on the conflict since she appears to have had some behind the scenes information on what was going on last week, essentially predicting that there would be a quick peace right after the strike and that Trump would reign in Israel. A lot of this is what most speculated from a motivation perspective, and some is rather interesting. Here is the broadcast: https://rumble.com/v6v9wk7-no-wwwiii-but-.......html I have tried to best summarize the bullet points below:

1. Gaza was the reason that Israel wanted to do this strike both now and when they tried it last year. More particularly this year the noise on Iran ramped up after the March 13, 2025 UN Investigation concluded that Israel committed not just War Crimes, but GENOCIDAL ACTS that are going to be harder and harder for the international community to ignore. What better than a war to get people distracted by that? Particularly if they can get the US involved in a protracted war, which is what Bibi and the neocons obviously wanted. She had said on the prior show that Israel went as far as to threaten using nukes if Trump did not use the bunker busters.

2. The US also saw it necessary, not because of nukes, but due to the opening of the new rail line into Iran that went into operation in May. This gives China a way to bypass US maritime blockades to energy from Iran. She all but implied that a US naval blockade of China is being planned by the US (otherwise why do something to keep that strategy more effective). I think that would be a freaking disaster, but it sounds like something the US would do in a desperate push to keep its hegemony. I mean just look at the last 2 weeks.

3. She said North Korea is the country that hacked Israel's Iron Dome for Iran. She also said that Russia, Iran, and China had all been using North Korea as a model to bypass sanctions and essentially had become the black market arms dealer outside western influence. Once Iran is taken out of the equation North Korea will work on behalf of China to replace Iran as chief weapons vendor to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Hamas and within Israel providing solid fuel rockets, electromagnetic pulse devices and hacking to defeat Israeli defenses and put the country into chaos. Again they hope to suck the US into that both on the Red Sea front and the Persian Gulf front in the aftermath of what happens in Iran.

4. China was never going to help Iran. They are not going to do anything to provide direct intervention outside of their territory, and that Russia was essentially Russia first as well.

5. Iran's fate: She all but implied what Alex Jones implied yesterday, that the US had control of what is left of the central authority in Iran now. She said Iran would break up into regions through economic collapse and civil unrest with China influencing the east to try to protect its corridor, the US influencing the south towards the gulf states (with an Iraq like rebuilding operation), Turkey in the east to try to block Kurdish influence, and Russia would exert its influence in the North to protect the north south route to shipping routes. I really do hope she is buying more US-Israel hopium on this as this would be horrible for the people of Iran. She also claimed that the bombs did take out the nuclear material (or more specifically whatever it was supposed to take out - she was not specific but I am guessing donated nukes - she had said they were going after actual nukes on Saturday though did not say where they got them but sort of impllied China or North Korea in this show). Again, I am not sure I buy this either, as I am not sure exactly how they hell they would know if crap was being moved out, unless perhaps they were tracking the radiological signatures of the trucks exiting and they were not there (I know we DO have satellites that can detect suitcase nukes from space from a family friend via a former CIA agent who had alerted us to the anthrax attacks only a few days after the 9/11 attacks - I was told they have in fact found them in the US before with one particular incident on a large estate owned by a Muslim).

6. She says things are not so great between Russia and Turkey / China / North Korea. Russia is pissed that China is in the process of building a pipeline that BYPASSES Russia through Turkey to Europe. Not sure where those hydrocarbons would be sourced from. Central asia? Qatar? Saudi Arabia? Iran? The rail line they are building from Beijing all the way to Europe would bypass Russia as well which they apparently were not too please about. So she says Russia is going to go after Turkey, stepping up to support Kurdish militias, etc. and bleed them dry. She repeated what she has been saying for years, Erdogan is goign to be taken out and she would not want to be in a meeting with him because they could literally drop something from space on his head.

I wonder to what extent her views are colored by her Greek Orthodox Christian background since there are prophecies of Erdogan being suceeded by a guy who basically rules badly and makes decisions that lead him to close the Dardennelles and provokes an invasion with Russia. And, she has also said Erdogan would be taken out, soon after that Putin would be replaced and World War III would beging in a clash between Greece and Turkey. So those scenarios would be consistent. She could be fitting her forecasts to that narrative.

7. She basically says that Russia will eventually turn on China the way Russia turned on Hitler (well it helped Hitler invaded his ass...although I know historians debate as to who was planning to betray who first - both were making plans) in WWII. But not in a kinetic way. Just acting in its own interests described above that happen to coincide with the West's interests. I have thought this was possible for years, but given the US's actions over the last 3 years, I don't know if I can see this happening now. But I guess it is conceivable if we are talking all covert actions like attacking the railway and pipeline construction using Kurdish proxies. Sort of like China using North Korea vs the US and Israel. She also had said if the US had gone in too hard in Iran, China was going to release China with a big missile incident in the Pacific to divide US efforts, this the need for the forces in Guam as well as the quick work towards a deal with Iran.

8. The war with China will be economic not kinetic. Taiwan war will not happen. The rift between Taiwan and China is largely contrived (she has said that before). The US wants to weaken them economically to keep them in check. I have a feeling she is being a little bit too optimistic that can be done without doing greater damage to the US though. I would argue we depend on China now more than they depend on us.

9. China in the process of building this rail project has integrated Chinese software which also has been incorporated into NATO railways in Romania and Bulgaria. Turkey has also been cooperating on sattelite projects where software has been invaded. So she says this could seriously compromise NATO given the sophistication of the Chinese malware and internet of things. So the US is going to let Russia take Turkey out. Again, the US and Russia have common interests here even though Turkey is a NATO member.

10. North Korea will be mega sanctioned to a degree that Russia and China will not be able to save them - (China is going to claim plausible deniability as to using Chinese sattlite stations in Turkey to go after Israel). It will economically collapse and be unified through economic aid etc. from the South.

11. Like North Korea, Israel will be thrown under the bus like Saddam Husein, Ukraine, etc. She said they might not even have a state anymore, and that the deal they made with the US over the Iran war might have even been that they have some borders remaining when the international community goes after them with a vengence over the genocide.

Like I said this is interesting, but I also see it as a pontential psyop for the justification of what just happened to feed to the MAGA base etc. I mean she did work as a contractor who had the CIA as a client and worked at psychological operations. Also could be true as well, or 70% true with disinformation strategically sown in. To me this whole thing was inexcusable for whatever reason given. No country should be trying to actively sabotage another country to cut off their energy etc. A hegemon does not have a right to remain a hegemon; they should act honestly. I could see where in one calculus you have to prevent China from becoming the hegemon to prevent them from making the entire world into this surveillance society. But there are other, decentralized ethical ways of doing that. And to some extent, I wonder to which a lot of that is just fear mongering.

More importantly, I don't think the kinetic war is off the table. If people in the US actually THINK that, it explains why the world is as dangerous as it is right now. Honestly after seeing Iran and Syria collapse (well Iran still remains to be seen ...) through acts of blatant terrorism, if I were China and Russia I would be having serious discussions of my own first strike on the US to decapitate it first before they do it to me. Even a coordinated first strike when command and control is ambiguous during a potential US civil war they could stoke. Would not be hard now. Like in those Dmitri Duduman and other prophecies (Henry Gruver, AA Alan, Banjamin Baruch, etc.) of the US succumbing to a nuclear sneak attack in the future. That might be the 4D plan being revealed and warned about in a way people could best receive. And I could see it happening now.
 
:lol:
He is deliberately lying to avoid escalating and keep up appearances (as if that would help him at all) since Witkoff must be basing his claim on what intelligence says about the true extent of this farce.
Steve Witkoff: “We put 12 bunker buster bombs on Fordow. There's no doubt that it breached the canopy...and there's no doubt that it was OBLITERATED. So, the reporting out there that in some way suggests that we did not achieve the objective is just completely preposterous!”
 
Bad choice of words, that once again puts Israel in a better position.

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Russia wants to clean up its image as much as possible and give the impression of being highly diplomatic and non-confrontational as long as possible (because they are). If the Iranians told them they don't need help, it's because they don't need it yet. In fact, the situation hasn't been catastrophic for either side so far, so it was an acceptable approach.


Iranian air defenses are fine; in fact, Israeli planes (including F-35s) did not enter Iranian airspace despite all the lies about having total control.
According to General Dan Caine, during Operation Midnight Hummer, which included B-2s—which is still debated as to whether they actually entered Iranian airspace—fourth-generation fighters were used as decoys (this probably includes F-16s).
Iranian air defenses, which can perfectly detect those planes, were not activated due to the risk of revealing their position or because they were already warned of the attack and didn't want to escalate the situation further.
So, I wouldn't give the S-400s so much importance despite the advantage they represent... even if they had been there and theoretically detected a stealth aircraft, again, it would have been useless because Iran would have followed the script.

Regarding Trump, perhaps it would be a good angle to see this in a simple way since he is a simple man.

He was angry more than necessary because he was in a difficult position that sullied his promises and distanced him from his objectives, which do not include eternal wars.

He could not leave Israel aside. He probably likes that country and understands how necessary it is for American power within that country's vision (and also how important it is to support them so that certain parties support him). But that does not mean that he likes Netanyahu's bellicose approach. Despite the certain mockery that his approach of peace through force represents these days, it worked well enough.

He carried out a short attack and it has no medium-long term impact on Iranian capabilities. Regardless of whether some regime change would have been desirable for him or not, he did not lead things to a long war and he got rid of Israel's allegation and maintained the image of supporting them. The real test-problem for him comes now that Netanyashu is already insinuating that this will delay Iran's nuclear program by only a couple of months, what will he do then?... Certainly it will not be so easy for him to just shout and go back to carrying out an operation for appearances, at least he could point a little more to Israel as the warmonger in the matter while shouting at Iran not to resume its nuclear program (as if that would stop both parties).
I think what they do need to address in terms of air defenses are the stand off attacks from those F-35s. It is clearly a problem that planes can just launch missile after missile in Iraqi and Syrian air space without your missile defenses being able to reach out and touch those planes. I don't know if that means moving more batteries further West or approaching the Iraqis to let you set up air defenses on their territory. I doubt the latter could happen despite Iraq being Shia and probably not liking what the US is doing, because the US still controls their asses based on their cash from oil being in the US banking system. They did make complaints to Iraq about letting Israeli jets fire from their airspace, but I sure as hell cannot tell they did anything about it. Maybe they need to even do some offensive operations with Hezbollah into what is left in Syria to re-establish some ability to take out planes there, although I am not sure what they really are capable of doing after being hit pretty hard. And if their leadership has sort of been neutralized by the US, where they have effectively gained control in one way or another of whoever is in charge as some have suggested, I am not sure it matters.
 
How disrespectful... but hey, it's Trump's show. No one takes him seriously afterward for things like this, and then he complains.
His only redeeming feature is the certain power the US still has as a backup, or no one would back him up.
I understand, Trump shows himself to his base, just afterwards that post was this one in reference to the resounding success where the US military destroyed the nuclear sites, of course it couldn't be any other way. He must have realized by now that people don't believe it and have to repeat it many times.

However, do not forget this, it's their prime aim. I highly doubt that they are no longer interested thanks to the much-talked cease-fire.
Just to recap. The whole point of this attack on Iran is to gain total control of the oil and gas resources in the Middle East and thereby strangle China's (and Russia) plan for a multipolar world, unseating the US as hegemon - and by definition Israel as the ME hegemon.

So it's "existential" for both the US and Israel, and by implication the major European powers.

That's the short version.
---
Here we go again for ever and ever.
From RT Russian TC
Washington will not allow Tehran to enrich uranium as part of a possible nuclear deal, Witkoff said.
 
I think what they do need to address in terms of air defenses are the stand off attacks from those F-35s. It is clearly a problem that planes can just launch missile after missile in Iraqi and Syrian air space without your missile defenses being able to reach out and touch those planes. I don't know if that means moving more batteries further West or approaching the Iraqis to let you set up air defenses on their territory. I doubt the latter could happen despite Iraq being Shia and probably not liking what the US is doing, because the US still controls their asses based on their cash from oil being in the US banking system. They did make complaints to Iraq about letting Israeli jets fire from their airspace, but I sure as hell cannot tell they did anything about it. Maybe they need to even do some offensive operations with Hezbollah into what is left in Syria to re-establish some ability to take out planes there, although I am not sure what they really are capable of doing after being hit pretty hard. And if their leadership has sort of been neutralized by the US, where they have effectively gained control in one way or another of whoever is in charge as some have suggested, I am not sure it matters.
It's a good question, the truth is that Iran did have defense systems on its border and had only mobilized them to more inland areas in anticipation of possible US attacks, in fact if the Israelis reached the border of Iran in some incursions it was because the defenses had moved, previously they attacked from Syria or Jordan and in low altitude flights that consume a lot of fuel to avoid radars (additional fuel tanks would have been added to them that can be released during the flight), it should also be noted that air defenses are not perfect, the detection distance of an enemy is not the same as the distance to be able to attack with certain missiles (generally shorter) and of course, most of the Israeli attacks that destroyed Iranian weapons came from missiles or even more so from attack drones like the IAI Heron, Harop, and Hermes which are generally harder to detect.
 
How disrespectful and totally unnecessary... But hey, it's Trump's show. No one takes him seriously afterward for things like this, and then he complains.
His only redeeming feature is the certain power the US still has as a backup, or no one would rub his back.
Sad, he flipped it so quickly. Let's hope it will be like this, though the pressures on him will be very high.
 
I think Trump is playing a role when he's angry with Israel. It's theater. Pretend you're angry with me, while I pretend I obey you while I continue to massacre children in Gaza and prepare to continue the war against Iran. By playing the role of an angry president, he calms the minds of American citizens by saying that what he wants is peace and only peace and that he is not the puppet of Israel. We know that politicians are actors and puppets. They don't decide anything. Once again, it's the Comedia del'arte.
 
I'm sure I'm not the only person who thinks this, but I want to say the last week or so has been positively crazy-making trying to follow all the ins and outs of this insane time we're living in. It's been angering seeing all this unfold with people gambling with the lives of millions.
 
@whitecoast I think both Ray McGovern and Glenn Diesen share a very similar outlook as you’ve laid out. You’ll forgive me for not creating a summary, but your above posts basically paint the picture far more elegantly than I could. I encourage you to at least watch the first 10 minutes, which describe perfectly how Trump has been in their words “mousetrapped”.

 
Putin has also publicly stated that he KNOWS Trump is not in charge. People that "you have never heard of" in his words are in charge. This was supposed to be a regime change operation planned out according to the "Path to Persia" paper in 2009. Trump was fully on board with it. It clearly failed when the people of Iran united against Israel. The US could pummel Iran into oblivion, but they were not going to get regime change even if they invaded. It was a practical consideration by the empire to withdraw in my opinion, and I think there was some truth to what Tore said right before Trump's speech, Israel was going to nuke Iran if Trump did not get involved and it sort of played out how she predicted - Israel would be called off right after the bombing and there would be a quick peace deal. They claim lie and claim objective achieved when we all know it was not true and they can move on to China without getting involved in a regional conflict. Trump merely did the bidding of the plan at the end of the day - they tried, they failed, move on to China - albeit making it a lot more entertaining with his absurd and horrific Tweets!!! They will pivot back to Iran like they did with Syria and Iraq later when they think they have the edge again.

While i won't jump to negate the history with the codes, it is far from clear, it could be just misinfo dropped just to discredit Russia arms thus make certain opponents weaker
"according to a leaked email from a private American intelligence company" " cited a “Mexican source,”described as a former police officer and a current military analyst."
Could be true, could be not
Reasons why Iran refused to sign military cooperation could be various, maybe they felt strong enough (and it looks like they are) maybe didn't want antagonize usa and were hoping for peaceful settlement and signing pack would be an obstacle.
Well, now they will and probably also pursue nuclear weapons, so this theater will be off the table for usa/israel
Pivot to Chine will be even more disastrous to them but i guess they are too stupid to not try that too
 
Iranian reports contradict that. They say that Iran never ordered or received the S400:



Iran's three remaining S300 air defense systems were apparently all destroyed:

You wrongly interpret what Iran said
There is s400 and s300 complex but defending nuclear facility where the russians work
 
I woke up this morning to the "news" that: Iran declares victory, Israel declares victory, USA declares victory, Israel is running out of weapons, USA is running out of weapons, Israel wants to get back to taking care of Gaza, and Iran claims they arrested a bunch of Israeli agents and 22 billion drones inside Iran...

And then I thought: "What ever happened to that guy who said wait until Thurs/Fri, when you'll see an Israeli attack on Iran that makes the pager thing look simple?" 🤨

Maybe that was just hot air, but deception and sneaky ops ARE the name of the game for the likes of the Mossad.

I'm starting to wonder if Trump's "brilliant move" was more like, "how to fix the epic hubris-powered failure on the part of the USA/Israel".

Because at this point, IMO not much on the ground has changed objectively - except maybe that Iran looks pretty strong and the US and Israel look pretty retarded to those 'in the know'. I mean, theater is great and all, but it only gets you so far. Just ask Zelensky.
 
Because at this point, IMO not much on the ground has changed objectively - except maybe that Iran looks pretty strong and the US and Israel look pretty retarded to those 'in the know'.
One thing Simplicius wrote in his latest piece is that the Iranians allegedly did do serious damage to Haifa:

We’ll have to see what long-lasting repercussions Israel may incur from its misadventure, particularly the destruction of many infrastructural facilities at its key Haifa port. Some contend the following:



Israel's dream of a transit corridor in the Mediterranean is shattered.

📍 Iranian rocket and drone attacks on Haifa have dealt an unprecedented blow to the vital infrastructure of the Israeli regime, effectively excluding this strategic port from international trade.

📍 The ambitious project of the Arab-Mediterranean Corridor (IMEC), which aimed to transform the port of Haifa into a transit hub between Asia, Europe, and Africa, has completely failed due to the attacks on Haifa's infrastructure by Iran.

📍 The US-backed project, involving countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India, has now become an unattainable dream on Netanyahu's desk.
 

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