Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel

[T.C.]

I spoke with an Iranian at work, who works in my team. This is his view not mine - Approx. 10K people have died from a source he knows back in Iran. I think he mentioned the source works in the hospital etc where they have a count of the dead bodies. 12 of his friends have died during the protests. He and a few others are very active on X, writing to US senators for help. He is also calling it a genocide by the Iranian government. I didn't counteract him or ask any leading questions as don't want to risk stepping on sore toes.

I just did a search for when the protests started and the answer I got was Dec 28th. That’s three weeks ago.

10,000 people in three weeks sounds a bit much to me.

 

[ApotheosisMMC.]

I spoke with an Iranian at work, who works in my team. This is his view not mine - Approx. 10K people have died from a source he knows back in Iran. I think he mentioned the source works in the hospital etc where they have a count of the dead bodies. 12 of his friends have died during the protests. He and a few others are very active on X, writing to US senators for help. He is also calling it a genocide by the Iranian government. I didn't counteract him or ask any leading questions as don't want to risk stepping on sore toes.

An alleged Iranian official (anonymous, so take this with a grain of salt) reportedly told Reuters that authorities had confirmed 4,500 deaths (+500 security agents).

The numbers still seem high to me, but if we take the deaths of the 500 agents as true, we could assume that the atmosphere was very violent. There is another even more important detail, which is that the main outbreaks of violence are said to have occurred in the Kurdish regions (curiously, the atmosphere is also heated with the Kurds in Syria). If this is the case, the figure of 4,500 deaths could be plausible, or at least the death toll could be quite high without necessarily reaching this figure.

Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000
Jan 18 (Reuters) - An Iranian official in the region said on Sunday the authorities had verified at least 5,000 people had been killed in protests in Iran, including about 500 security personnel, blaming "terrorists and armed rioters" for killing "innocent Iranians".
The official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, also told Reuters some of the heaviest clashes and highest number of deaths were in the Iranian Kurdish areas in northwest Iran, a region where Kurdish separatists have been active and where flare-ups have been among the most violent in past periods of unrest.
"The final toll is not expected to increase sharply," the official said, adding that "Israel and armed groups abroad" had supported and equipped those taking to the streets.
The Iranian authorities regularly blame unrest on foreign enemies, including Israel, an arch foe of the Islamic Republic which launched military strikes on Iran in June.
The U.S.-based HRANA rights group said on Saturday the death toll had reached 3,308, with another 4,382 cases under review. The group said it had confirmed more than 24,000 arrests.
The Iranian Kurdish rights group Hengaw, based in Norway, has said that among regions where there were heavy security measures during protests in late December were Kurdish areas in the northwest.
(This Jan 18 story has been corrected to say 'clashes' to 'security measures' in paragraph 6)
Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Edmund Blair and Louise Heavens.

Iranian official says verified deaths in Iran protests reaches at least 5,000

The official told Reuters some of the heaviest clashes and highest number of deaths were in the Iranian Kurdish areas in northwest Iran.

www.reuters.com

 

[sToRmR1dR]

The US is preparing to attack Iran while Israel is preparing for the possibility of a surprise war.

 

[iamthatis]

I just did a search for when the protests started and the answer I got was Dec 28th. That’s three weeks ago.

10,000 people in three weeks sounds a bit much to me.

Yeah, it sounds like a lot. There's a rumour going around that a cache of 60,000 weapons was confiscated by Iranian authorities. Could be BS justification, but if true, one could easily imagine thousands of armed radicals across Iran being taken out by the IRGC, especially in light of the decades-long neocon dream of turning all of Iran into a new Syria.

https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-says-60-000-weapons-seized-en-route-to-tehran--two-arre

 

[Cosmos]

Obviously, (especially) nothing that comes from mainstream media should be taken at face value in the same way that things posted on social media shouldn’t be taken at face value either.

Having said that, in this day and age, especially in the west, it is all to easy to forget what real world consequences and amounts of death, suffering and chaos can be caused (and have been caused) by actions like “taking out Iran“.

It is easy to talk about things “happening over there“ for westerners in general. It hits far closer though when you are more directly affected.

So, I think it is no joke at all when countries like Russia speak of existential threats when talking about what the west is doing. It is quite literally an existential threat and thus an existential fight because the consequences of western actions are as bloody, devastating and chaotic as they can get.

So, if a country like Iran is arguably confronted by exactly that kind of threat (while having a lot less abilities to counter it compared to the Russians) it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they could and would take rather vigorous actions to fight back and prevent just that from happening, including possibly taking a lot of people out that are trying to help “the evil ones“ to achieve their goals.

 

[Avala]

I remember that the very same narrative was in action for Libya in 2011. Thousands killed by the government, no internet, mobile phones were confiscated, and so on. Nothing of that was real at the end. So, I dont believe literally anything presented by any western media. Even when they referencing to "Iranian officials".

 

[sid]

I have another Iranian in my team and according to her, 20K people have died. Now this may or may not be real facts but may just be a perception of the people down there which is dangerous nonetheless.

She was in tears so, I didn't ask any upsetting questions. She has managed to speak to her parents who are ok. She can't get hold of some of her cousins though and comms within the country are also difficult, impossible in most cases. One of her cousins have access to a working Starlink and able to communicate out at times. A lot of people have moved to the villages, away from the cities. There is a feeling that a lot of people will flee to western countries on visitor visas once the flights open up.

 

[A Jay]

A high body count would work in the favor of those seeking regime change. There's also enough videos of terrorists shooting and beating civilians and security forces, weapons seized, mainstream reporting of commando-style strike teams, burning buildings, and so on to put a plausible death toll at 5k. Don't know about 20k, though. Whatever the actual number of dead the key is that the vast majority were killed by the Mossad and their lackey's. Iranian response was forceful but it was also restrained.

One of her cousins have access to a working Starlink and able to communicate out at times.

Pretty sure that's illegal and carries a stiff penalty, potenially the death penalty. All things considered I suspect this cousin has ties to some shady people and at the very least believes US media bullshit about their own country.

 

[Carl]

I have another Iranian in my team and according to her, 20K people have died. Now this may or may not be real facts but may just be a perception of the people down there which is dangerous nonetheless.

She was in tears so, I didn't ask any upsetting questions. She has managed to speak to her parents who are ok. She can't get hold of some of her cousins though and comms within the country are also difficult, impossible in most cases. One of her cousins have access to a working Starlink and able to communicate out at times. A lot of people have moved to the villages, away from the cities. There is a feeling that a lot of people will flee to western countries on visitor visas once the flights open up.

We certainly do keep hearing these stories from a friend or a cousin, it's the same in every regime change operation. People of Iranian extraction are put on a pedestal here, their word about events treated as gospel, and even more so for the word of someone actually on the ground in Iran. Yet I talk to a bunch of my neighbours right here on the ground in the UK, and not one of them has a clue what is actually going on in the UK. People are filled with lies and false rumours, and this would be true tenfold in a time of crisis or uncertainty.

 

[Carl]

We certainly do keep hearing these stories from a friend or a cousin, it's the same in every regime change operation. People of Iranian extraction are put on a pedestal here, their word about events treated as gospel, and even more so for the word of someone actually on the ground in Iran. Yet I talk to a bunch of my neighbours right here on the ground in the UK, and not one of them has a clue what is actually going on in the UK. People are filled with lies and false rumours, and this would be true tenfold in a time of crisis or uncertainty.

Just to add to that, during 2020 people were convinced that 10 gorillion people had died from the virus, and now in 2026 they think that zero people died from the vax

 

[Beau]

Pretty interesting take from Scott Ritter about how Trump managed Israel and Iran. Keep in mind, Ritter isn't some blind MAGA loyalist. He's been bitterly angry about what Trump did in Venezuela.

Scott Ritter makes a claim that, if true, reframes everything…

According to Ritter, Trump’s last-minute decision not to trigger an attack on Iran was not hesitation, but a deliberate move to dismantle a long-prepared regime-change operation involving Mossad, the CIA, and the usual neocon war hawks.

The way Ritter describes it, Trump allowed these actors to believe he was fully aligned with their objective. At Mar-a-Lago he came to an agreement with Netanyahu. He let them plan, activate networks and position assets. In other words, he let the operation reach the point of maximum exposure, and then, at the very last moment, he didn’t pull the trigger.

Iran, allegedly alerted by Russia (with Trump’s knowledge? ) moved in time to dismantle the entire covert network. Assets were rolled up, communications were compromised, the entire infrastructure was destroyed. Finito. Bear in mind, these kinds of intelligence networks take years, sometimes decades, to build, so once exposed, they don’t simply get rebuilt, the capability itself disappears. So if this account holds, Trump didn’t just stop a regime-change operation in that moment. He removed the ability to carry one out in the foreseeable future, (at least under Israel’s terms).But the genius of it doesn’t stop there…

By allowing the situation to escalate right up to the edge, Trump also forced Iran into believing an attack was imminent. And when a regime truly believes the moment has arrived, it reveals itself; emergency protocols get activated, military movements occur, communication pathways change and leadership protection mechanisms are triggered. In other words, Iran showed its hand.

That response; how they move, what they protect, what they prioritise, what they trigger, is priceless intelligence, which you only get it when the other side believes it’s real.

Israel and the intelligence hawks were allowed to overextend and expose their covert machinery. Iran was pressured into revealing its defensive response. No war was launched, no missiles fired, but the strategic balance changed completely.

If this was a carefully premeditated plan by Trump, as Ritter suggests, then it was nothing short of genius; warmongers were neutralised, the adversary was exposed, war was avoided and Trump walks away with all the leverage.

That’s strategic mastery, and it’s exactly why Trump continues to confound both his enemies and his supposed allies.

You can listen to Ritter talk about this in this tweet.

 

[sid]

Pretty sure that's illegal and carries a stiff penalty, potenially the death penalty. All things considered I suspect this cousin has ties to some shady people and at the very least believes US media bullshit about their own country.

That's true for a fair few Iranians I think hence why there are 50K starlink receivers smuggled into the place. This person I reference is also a Zarathustran and disagrees with Islam taking over Iran.

 

[ApotheosisMMC.]

That's true for a fair few Iranians I think hence why there are 50K starlink receivers smuggled into the place. This person I reference is also a Zarathustran and disagrees with Islam taking over Iran.

Well, regardless of whether Zoroastrianism is generally a better religion, what you're saying makes it sound even more opposed to the regime and hardened in that regard. It's possible that he's exaggerating things on purpose, or perhaps he heard it from someone else or from a group more or less on the same page. It's possible that he's letting himself be influenced by that information to favor his own view, maybe.

 

[T.C.]

All things considered I suspect this cousin has ties to some shady people and at the very least believes US media bullshit about their own country.

Yes, and even if they’re not directly funded and trained by NGOs, it’s highly likely they’ll be on the side of a colour revolution/regime change. And the info they do get online is what has lead to this opinion they have, so that’s what they’re passing on to their relatives in the west.

I have noticed this with other people who come to the west from countries that Western governments don’t like, they often just swallow all Western propaganda about what’s going on back in their home countries. A Georgian, for example, who is fervently anti-Russia and anti-Putin, and wholeheartedly backed the regime-change protests over the last year.

 

[Equinox]

Pretty interesting take from Scott Ritter about how Trump managed Israel and Iran. Keep in mind, Ritter isn't some blind MAGA loyalist. He's been bitterly angry about what Trump did in Venezuela.


You can listen to Ritter talk about this in this tweet.

If that's true about what Trump has done then Israel would know it and see that as a big betrayal, and that would put Trump and/or his family in danger. I can't imagine MOSSAD letting that go unpunished.

On the other hand...

By allowing the situation to escalate right up to the edge, Trump also forced Iran into believing an attack was imminent. And when a regime truly believes the moment has arrived, it reveals itself; emergency protocols get activated, military movements occur, communication pathways change and leadership protection mechanisms are triggered. In other words, Iran showed its hand.

That response; how they move, what they protect, what they prioritise, what they trigger, is priceless intelligence, which you only get it when the other side believes it’s real.

This information about Iran's pre-emptive defence-activation mechanisms, which Trump's (stalled) actions has since revealed, might also be exactly what the CIA and Israeli intelligence wanted to know first-hand for sure, first, before fully committing to a much larger planned and direct military offensive in the near future.