A ground invasion would not succeed if limited; it would need to control and completely comb the entire coastal area of Iran, and likely invade Tehran, a city of ten million people. Such an undertaking may require the greatest US military effort since WWII. The cost in money and lives will be enormous, and the outcome far from certain. Iran is an enormous country the size of Western Europe, with rugged and impenetrable mountain terrain, and a population of 93 million, larger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined. Iran is also far more militarily advanced than Iraq and Afghanistan, and there is no way of dealing with Iran’s drones and missiles without sustaining significant damage. Iranians have been preparing for this war against America since 1953, and the war so far shows that they are better prepared than the American buffoon who started the war because his Israeli owners lied to him and told him it would be as easy as Venezuela, and when that failed he had to scramble and sent soldiers and air defenses to the region to face the ferocious Iranian response.
But beyond the deaths of soldiers, the impact of escalation is likely to be devastating to the US and world economies, to US global military dominance, and to the US dollar. Escalation will send Treasury yields higher and increase the fiscal pressure on the US. Debt/GDP is already approaching banana republic levels, and debt servicing is already the largest part of the US budget. Escalation of this sort is unlikely to leave Iranian and Gulf energy infrastructure intact, destroying large percentages of the world’s energy supply, causing an energy and poverty crisis. The escalation will also likely disrupt Hormuz traffic for a long period of time, resulting in devastating damage to the US and world economies. This could unleash a recessionary inflation worse than the 1970s, whose energy shock was actually tiny and mostly a cover-up for inflation, as
I explain in The Fiat Standard. With high inflation to fund the war, supply disruptions that cripple economic activity, rising interest rates destroying businesses, a collapsing bond market destroying savings, growing unemployment, increased pressure for inflationary and welfare policies to counter the damage, and rising cost of debt servicing, a US default is not an outlandish possibility in this world, it may even be probable, and it would be devastating to the US government, the US dollar, and the countless suckers who believed that US bonds are a good saving instrument. If the Treasury market loses its status as the ultimate safe haven, the dollar will likely lose its status as the global reserve currency, and America’s exorbitant inflationary privilege will disappear.
Further, if Trump escalates against Iran, his military will be stretched to the point where it would be very difficult for it to engage elsewhere, opening it up for significant geopolitical setbacks. It is already bordering on delusional to hear Americans talk about China being an enemy, because if America were to start a war in China’s surroundings, Chinese hypersonic missiles could quickly and decisively end the war, as
a leaked Pentagon report explains. Without hypersonic missiles, the US is at a severe disadvantage. With an expensive and protracted quagmire in Iran, the US would be even more vulnerable.
The US has no reason to be involved in this war at all, and the only sane course of action for it is to evacuate all its troops from the Middle East, stop giving military or economic aid to any government in the region, and establish normal diplomatic relations with them and no alliances. But Israel is in control of America, and Israel needs the US to prosecute this war until it can destroy Iran as a society and a country, and turn it into a post-apocalyptic wasteland. Iran, on the other hand, needs to make the cost of the war unbearable for the US before the US can destroy Iran.
Given that Trump isn’t running for reelection and isn’t a die-hard Republican who cares about the party after him, it won’t be political pressure that moves him. And given that his family is likely making incredible gains from his manipulation of the market, selling pardons, and being Miriam Adelson’s perfect little puppet, he’s unlikely to be moved by moderate inflation and growing deficits. Iran will have to impose an enormous military and economic cost before the US retreats, which means very high inflation, a devastating depression, and/or a fiscal crisis.
In conclusion, the choice facing Trump today is very difficult, and it is between bad options. De-escalation is a humiliating defeat unacceptable to his Israeli bosses, even though it would be much better for America and the world. Escalation risks economic catastrophe at home and worldwide, the destruction of the US empire, a fiscal crisis, high inflation, and maybe even hyperinflation. Tragically, Israel’s control of the US means there is likely no endpoint to this conflict except through the destruction of Iran and its plunging into civil war, or the destruction of the US economy with tragic consequences for billions of people. We could also end up with both.