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Brace Yourselves For War Between Iran and Israel
- Thread starter Ocean
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Watched an interesting video claiming that the Aussie refining was a target of DEWs. The guy explains that there was suspicious drone flight activity on the night of the fire. Also claims that the same drone was used to start the Maui fires, not a weaponised drone itself, but one that communicates with other systems that are weaponised.
A question for the C’s?
Seems wayyyyyyyyyyy to coincidental that there are so many refineries going up in flames amid an oil crisis.
AI sez
10 in 21 days might not be too weird of a coincidence (except that it is) yet when we are looking at places like Australia who only have/d two refineries (the other 6 been shut down over the past 2 decades) the chances of one of them being completely destroyed at such a critical time in global oil instability smells of such stinky fish that anyone who can’t smell it must be dead or extremely high with their head in the clouds.
Macrocosm
Padawan Learner
As expected the US are interdicting ships in the Gulf of Oman but don't have the resources there to enforce a true blockade. That's according to these tanker tracking accounts:
Transit or no transit - that’s the question | Vortexa
The US Naval Blockade starting April 13 2026 has increased the challenge for vessels to enter or leave the Middle East Gulf via the Straits of Hormuzwww.vortexa.com
This is assuming the US Navy is only blockading ships in the Gulf of Oman and The Arabian Sea.
Exclusive: US intercepts three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters, sources say
Of course, widening the circle would make the task harder.
Claude Summary: "World War Trump" — Lecture Transcript by Prof. Jiang00:00:00 — Ceasefire & Opening Context
A two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is nearing its end. Negotiations are taking place in Oman. Prof. Jiang argues this war is not simply Trump's personal decision, but part of a larger US imperial strategy to maintain global dominance.
00:01:21 — Global Oil Refinery Fires
Key Point: Over 50 oil refineries worldwide have been set on fire in the past 45 days — in Russia, Myanmar, Romania, India, and Australia among others. Prof. Jiang notes the cause is unknown but raises the question of who benefits, applying the framework of means, motive, and opportunity. He concludes the most likely candidates are the US or Russia, or possibly both. 00:03:15 — US Ship Seizure in International Waters Key Point: The US boarded an Iranian cargo ship returning from China, firing at its engine before special forces took over. The US suspected the ship carried fuel and components for ballistic missiles. Prof. Jiang notes the contradiction: US officials previously called Iranian threats to ships "piracy and terrorism," yet defended their own seizure of ships as legitimate enforcement of the oil blockade. 00:05:04 — The Oil Blockade ContinuesThe US has seized two additional oil tankers overnight as part of an ongoing oil quarantine. Secretary Rubio is cited as stating this leverage will continue.
00:05:48 — Senator Rick Scott on the WarSenator Rick Scott, in a recorded interview, states that even if the Iran war does not go well for the US, blocking oil to China and destroying its economy would be worthwhile. Prof. Jiang presents this as a direct, on-record statement revealing the broader strategic goal of the war.
00:07:16 — Official Justification for the War Key Point: White House spokesperson Karen Leavitt stated on record that Trump launched "Operation Epic Fury" based on a belief that Iran would strike US targets within 7 days — later revised to 3 days. When pressed for evidence, she described it as "a feeling the president had based on facts." Trump has also given conflicting public statements — at times saying the war is going well and a ceasefire is near, and at other times threatening to resume bombing. 00:09:36 — Economic Impact of the WarProf. Jiang cites the following price increases since the war began: sulfur +57%, jet fuel +52%, with diesel, gasoline, and fertilizers also rising sharply. He notes sulfur is critical for both fertilizer and microchip manufacturing.
00:13:35 — US Moving Toward a War Economy Key Point: Prof. Jiang outlines the following developments:- The Pentagon is in talks with General Motors and Ford to manufacture munitions, drones, and military equipment
- Trump announced the Defense Production Act, allowing the government to subsidize private corporations in weapons manufacturing
- Starting December, Americans aged 18–26 will be automatically registered for the draft
- The Pentagon budget is currently $1 trillion, set to rise to $1.5 trillion next year
- More veterans are being asked to serve longer
00:15:04 — Congressional Vote on War Powers Key Point: A congressional vote was held on whether to restrict Trump's war powers. Four Republicans did not vote, and one Republican voted yes. This would have resulted in a 214–213 majority in favor of restricting Trump. However, one Democrat switched their vote to no, making the final result 214–213 against the restriction. Prof. Jiang argues this outcome was deliberately engineered, and that both parties effectively support the war. 00:17:02 — The US National Defense Strategy (January 2026)Prof. Jiang reads directly from the National Defense Strategy document released in January 2026. The document outlines four core priorities:
- Defend the homeland and protect interests in the Western Hemisphere
- Deter China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not confrontation
- Increase burden-sharing with allies and partners
- Rebuild the US defense industrial base
00:25:11 — Homeland Security & ICE Key Point: Prof. Jiang points to ICE's budget, which has sharply increased to $90 billion. He argues that ICE's true function is not solely immigration enforcement, but normalizing the presence of armed federal forces in American cities — drawing a parallel to the lesson the US drew from the Vietnam War, where domestic protest contributed to the war's failure. 00:27:30 — Containing China: The First Island Chain & Strait of MalaccaProf. Jiang explains that the US strategy involves:
- Building a military presence along the first island chain (Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines)
- Cooperating with Indonesia to gain influence over the Strait of Malacca, through which China receives approximately 80% of its energy
- Encouraging Japan to rearm and sign defense agreements with Australia and other nations
- Exerting control over the Panama Canal and pursuing the acquisition of Greenland to block Arctic access for Russia and China
- Signing a cooperation deal with Morocco to control the Strait of Gibraltar
00:38:06 — Why Iran Is the Target Key Point: Prof. Jiang explains that Iran sits at the geographic center of both Russia's North-South Corridor and China's Belt and Road Initiative. He argues that as long as Iran is stable, Russia and China can trade freely with the world. Keeping Iran in a state of war disrupts both trade routes simultaneously, without the US needing to formally defeat Iran. 00:43:09 — The Broader Strategy: A Modern Marshall PlanProf. Jiang describes the overarching US vision as a "Fortress Western Hemisphere" — a self-sufficient bloc with abundant resources that sells energy, weapons, and US-dollar-denominated financing to a world kept in perpetual conflict. He draws a direct parallel to the post-WWII Marshall Plan, where the US lent money to war-damaged Europe to buy American products.
00:44:39 — Three Requirements for the Strategy to SucceedProf. Jiang identifies three conditions the US needs:
- A national draft — to supply soldiers for maintaining control over global choke points
- Continuity of government — Trump pursuing a third term, as a change in administration could derail the plan
- An AI surveillance state — referencing Operation Stargate, a federal plan to invest $500 billion in data centers across the US, which Prof. Jiang connects to mass digital monitoring of the population
00:49:05 — Why the Strategy Will Fail Key Point: Prof. Jiang argues the plan will ultimately backfire for three reasons rooted in historical patterns of imperial decline:- Nationalism — nations being controlled will eventually resist
- Corruption — a significant portion of the defense budget will be misappropriated
- Division — domestic political polarization, and the possibility of civil unrest or civil conflict, will weaken the effort from within
00:53:53 — Long-Term PredictionProf. Jiang's conclusion is that America will appear to make gains in the short term but will ultimately be forced to withdraw to the Western Hemisphere. He states the US does not need to win in Iran — it only needs Iran in a state of ongoing chaos. He predicts Russia will respond by developing its own naval capacity to contest American control of choke points, and by targeting energy infrastructure in a similar way. He expects most of the world to align with Russia over time as a counterbalance to US power.
Bottom line thesis:
Prof. Jiang's central argument is that the US-Iran war is a component of a deliberate long-term strategy to control global trade choke points, cut off China's energy supply, and sustain American imperial dominance by keeping rival regions in perpetual conflict. He believes the strategy is historically familiar and, like past imperial overreach, will ultimately accelerate American decline.
The giant fly in Iran's ointment?
And below, Hendry lays out why Iran is cornered...
With this week's lack of talks (and the US ceasefire/blockade still in play now), the question is how long does Iran have before it folds from pain, or its ideological inability to come to the Infidels' table makes it a shadow of its former self.
The answer is Iran has very limited time left - according to JPMorgan's latest estimates:
Hendry concludes:
And global capital markets have already moved to price that eventuality in.
'Time Is Running Out For Iran': The Market Is Calling 'Bullshit' On Mainstream's Narrative, Hugh Hendry Explains...<!-- --> | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zerowww.zerohedge.com
We'll see, but there are two major problems with this calculation. The first, as has already been pointed out, is that the blockade of Iranian oil exports is clearly nowhere near 100% effective at this point in time. There's some debate as to exactly how many ships have reached their destinations, been interdicted, or turned back.
The other assumption is that the markets have actually priced in the extended disruption that is already huge, and possibly a long term issue. Many argue that markets are in fact living in dreamland. Oil prices are both heavily manipulated and operating on some kind of assumption that a deal will have to be reached soon. We're approaching the two months point already.
Iran is counting on the probability of reality eventually hitting the markets, which could be quite soon and quite dramatic. They have obviously calculated that they can absorb the economic damage for longer than the global economy. As the C's said, though, it's more likely to be 'bad all the way around'.
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mantle
Jedi Master
Actually Trump caused an existential threat to all countries that rely on energy and investments to survive. Never mind thrive. Trump and his partner caused a mortal global threat to all. Some call it their high stakes poker game. Two against everyone else on the table. All or nothing . They both cheat.
The social consequences are also huge once the reality of global hunger pokes its ugly face . It is getting late. If this continues for more weeks... months... due to the un- full- filled readiness of sowing seasons and the lack of fertiliser ours are dire futures. Even Britain"s banks are at meetings because they know this also has caused a huge crisis against their financial system. Roll up roll up roll up . Like cockroaches exposed to the light , they also rush to the nearest chair stepping on their partner's shoes. Trump and the other have caused our precarious balance to sway.
I am told that Israel's Golem is called Amerika. Spelled with a k because the other one ceased to exist. They could not keep it.
The social consequences are also huge once the reality of global hunger pokes its ugly face . It is getting late. If this continues for more weeks... months... due to the un- full- filled readiness of sowing seasons and the lack of fertiliser ours are dire futures. Even Britain"s banks are at meetings because they know this also has caused a huge crisis against their financial system. Roll up roll up roll up . Like cockroaches exposed to the light , they also rush to the nearest chair stepping on their partner's shoes. Trump and the other have caused our precarious balance to sway.
I am told that Israel's Golem is called Amerika. Spelled with a k because the other one ceased to exist. They could not keep it.
Oops! I'd just finished watching Tucker's conversation with his brother Buckley so my mind went there. You're quite correct!
Israel is waiting for US approval to "return Iran to the Stone Age", while Trump threatens to shoot boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
Robert Barnes in interview with The Duran says that Trump is literally suffering from mental health issues (early dementia) which explains his erratic behaviour, extreme grandiosity and lack of touch with realistic views. He says that it's true that he asked for the nuclear codes but was denied (he wanted to simulate what a nuclear attack on Iran would look like), and that he was kicked out of the Situation Room when the "copilot rescue" operation went wrong (I don't think that was actually a rescue operation but anyway). He adds that there's a number of 'Worm Tongues' whispering on his ear and making things worse, such as Pete Hegseth, Laura Loomer, Mark Levin and Lindsey Graham. The more sensible people (like JD Vance) are flipping from laughing and crying at the absurdities while a number of military officials are either resigning or being fired.
So I think we can stop wondering about what's Trump plan because he doesn't really have one as he isn't a rational actor any more. Sad and dangerous.
Here's the video:
So I think we can stop wondering about what's Trump plan because he doesn't really have one as he isn't a rational actor any more. Sad and dangerous.
Here's the video:
Larry Johnson is of the same opinion and that dementia explains Trump's outrageous behaviors over the recent past. He particularly cited Trump's response to Marjorie Taylor Greene telling him even her children were getting death threats (due to Trump turning on her) and he said, "They deserve it!"
This reminded me of Trump's hateful response to news of the deaths of Rob Reiner and his wife, viciously killed by their son. So, yes, Trump has been sounding off without a filter for quite a while which is typical for persons experiencing dementia. Larry totally rejects the idea that it's all an act. I wonder if his vax shots played any part in his mental condition.
On another note, kinda think when the current 3 to 5 day ceasefire expires, Trump will order more destruction on Iran which would make sense as he's no longer of sound mind plus the circle of nutjobs who have his ear. It's all so mind numbing.
Haiku
Jedi Master
That puts them right at the 26th, Nostradamus anyone … Haiku ...
Now what? Trump to speak to media at 3 p.m. Tweets flying!
Umm -
EDIT: Fox News is saying Trump's 3 p.m. press conference will be about health care. Also, Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will make a deal with Iran when the US is ready.
Umm -
EDIT: Fox News is saying Trump's 3 p.m. press conference will be about health care. Also, Trump announced on Truth Social that the US will make a deal with Iran when the US is ready.
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Ricardo
The Living Force
Question now is if the devil ( or its double ) is in Israel as the press conference goes live ...
OK - here it is, but still relevant to this thread I think - and is there actually an IRAN WAR THE MOVIE? Or has it been totally redacted . . .
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