Hi_Henry
The Living Force
The forecast is an attempt to look into the future. In the O&G Industry they do not have crystal balls. Instead they collect historical data from which they attempt to calculate reasonable forecasts into the future.That's a 'forecast' and has more to do with maintaining the illusion of scarcity than actual production and availability levels.
Considering the time that has past since that 2012 forecast, I'd say it is doing a reasonably good job. Current production data support that,
Denmark - 119 BBL/D/1K
Denmark Crude Oil Production - September 2023 Data - 1994-2022 Historical
Crude Oil Production in Denmark decreased to 54.07 BBL/D/1K in May from 56.58 BBL/D/1K in April of 2023. Crude Oil Production in Denmark averaged 226.30 BBL/D/1K from 1994 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 418.20 BBL/D/1K in July of 2004 and a record low of 54.07 BBL/D/1K in May of 2023...
tradingeconomics.com
UK - 1117 BBL/D/1K
United Kingdom Crude Oil Production - September 2023 Data - 1973-2022 Historical
Crude Oil Production in the United Kingdom increased to 687 BBL/D/1K in May from 672 BBL/D/1K in April of 2023. Crude Oil Production in the United Kingdom averaged 1557.57 BBL/D/1K from 1973 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 2821.00 BBL/D/1K in December of 1998 and a record low of 1.00...
tradingeconomics.com
Norway - 1417 BBL/D/1K
Norway Crude Oil Production - September 2023 Data - 1973-2022 Historical
Crude Oil Production in Norway decreased to 1792 BBL/D/1K in May from 1827 BBL/D/1K in April of 2023. Crude Oil Production in Norway averaged 1675.01 BBL/D/1K from 1973 until 2023, reaching an all time high of 3417.00 BBL/D/1K in July of 2000 and a record low of 2.00 BBL/D/1K in January of 1974...
tradingeconomics.com
So mid 2019 forecast in the graph I provided is not way off. Hence, their decline rate forecast was not bad but then such is the behavior of a non-renewable resource (within humanities life span). They decline, something that they are well aware of in this industry.
These pumping jacks are not installed to create a scarcity and hide production. Producers are there attempting to maximize profit and minimize cost in order to get the most from their investment. Thus they use them because the flow rates are so low that this is the most economical way to extract what is left underground.
Here we can see pumping jacks in Bahrain which wouldn't shock anyone familiar with the industry there.
Caspian Sea region