Intel 1
Donetsk Republic announced that they had uncovered secret plans for a new massive attack on Donetsk and Lugansk by Kiev.
I have translated/summarised the urgent announcement by DNR Defence Spokesman, Eduard Basurin.
DNR received this secret intel from high level sources within Kiev army ranks.
Kiev amassed 90,000 troops on Ukraine/DNR-LNR (Novorossia) border, preparing to attack. This armed force includes 450 tanks, 2500 armored vehicles, 5 heavy rocket launchers Tochka-U and thousands in various artillery hardware. This army has been positioned in four important locations. Mariupol, to attack Donetsk from the south; central to attack Donetsk from the west; third one to cut off Donetsk from Lugansk and fourth to attack Lugansk from the north. The reserve group is located behind these four army groupings. The north and south groupings will also cut off LNR and DNR from the Russian border in order to stop humanitarian assistance and close the circle around both republics, thus suffocating them.
Video link
Video with maps:
Intel 2
On August 24, Ukraine celebrates its independence day. According to intel, today Poroshenko (president), Yatsenyuk (PM) and Klichko (boxer, Mayor of Kiev) will announce a coalition of their three parties in order to run together in the upcoming local elections.
Ukraine will have local elections in October. Poroshenko’s ratings are down and even his former cronies distrust him. The right sector is threatening to start maidan-3 at any moment. Attempts to start a new maidan have been made by various groups, mainly protesting the economic collapse, shortages, hyperinflation and unemployment. However, every protest attempt has been squashed.
But anger and severe disappointment are brewing all over Ukraine. One day they will boil over.
Yatsenyuk’s rating is basically zero. So is Klichko’s, who can hardly string two words together and therefore is considered unfit for office. However, these three have a muscle in the form of their parties, which they are lavishly finance out of those millions they stole.
Yatsenyuk is the darling of the US and Klichko is Angela Merkel’s personal protege. Poroshenko used to be a compromise figure, convenient for both US and EU. But it appears that time has passed as no one accepts him well any more. However, Poroshenko’s ability to cling to power cannot be underestimated. He will do anything to hang on. The alternative is basically the international tribunal for crimes against humanity. Yatsenyuk and Klichko are in the same boat.
At the same time, they all have done very well for themselves, having looted what they could from the country. Poroshenko’s wealth went up 7-fold in his one year of presidency (I had a video about that) and Yatsenyuk is now officially a dollar billionaire.
However, these three know they would lose these local elections in many regions. This is why they must try to unite.
My intel says that people in cities of Kherson and Nikolaev (south/Black Sea area) would prefer the Opposition Block. It consists of sort of remnants of the Party of the Regions and certain minor oligarchs who are for better relations with Russia, while also maintaining closer relations with the EU. There are also some relatively honest people in the Opposition Block.
In Odessa, if elections were semi-honest (and this is a huge IF), the winners could be the pro-Russian, pro-Odessa-autonomy, anti-Kiev party Rodina (Motherland), and possibly also Opposition Block. Rodina is one of the main forces still legally remaining in opposition. They have good positions in the city council, however, many of them had to flee Ukraine and are now in exile. Some do remain. Generally, there are very few opposition leaders still remaining in Odessa, as in any other place in Ukraine. Some perished in the fire on Kulikovo Polie, some were chased out of the country, some thrown in jail.
However, Rodina still presents danger to powers that be. This is why its leader, former Rada deputy Igor Markov was recently arrested by Interpol (!) in Italy, where he was on vacation, based on a trumped-up charge that he caused public disturbance in Odessa in 2007 (8 years ago!). The charge had been overturned several times by various courts, but it still get manipulated for political reasons. Another reasons for the attack on Markov is the fact that he joined the Committee for the Salvation of Ukraine co-organized by him, ex-PM of Ukraine Azarov and ex-Rada deputy Oleynik. The arrest, which will be overturned eventually, still will slow down the preparation for local elections and discourage the beheaded party Rodina. This is what Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk are counting on. Odessa remains a trouble spot for the Kiev junta. They will do everything to prevent decent people from being elected into city council.
Generally, Odessa is very oppressed and suppressed; people are afraid to speak up. The situation is very similar in Kiev, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk.
The situation in Donbass is the following: Donbass is roughly divided into two halves. One half belongs with Donetsk and Lugansk Republics and another half is under junta occupation. We all remember that on May 11, 2014, the people of then Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts voted in a referendum against Kiev junta and ukro-nazis, and for their republics. That was well before the war started.
It is understood that people all over the occupied parts of Donbass will vote for those candidates who are the closest to the Republics and furthest from the junta. This may create the situation in which these areas are formally under Kiev, but de-facto a part of LNR and DNR.
Widespread electoral fraud is also expected throughout Ukraine. However, my intel suggests that Russia, Eurasian Union and SCO are sending large election monitoring delegations to each polling station on the occupied territory of Donbass. Therefore, at least in Donbass fraud may be very hard to execute.
That’s why Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk and Klichko are scrambling to join forces, attempting to boost their numbers. However, this will likely not help their chances anyway. They are risking losing the rest of Donbass without a single shot fired, based on democratic elections.
This is one of the main reasons for the intensified shelling of Donetsk. One of the main reasons for the intensified shelling: Poroshenko and his puppet masters are attempting to make DNR and LNR lose their cool and counter-attack. After that, DNR/LNR get accused of breaking Minsk accords and the new round of sanctions against Russia begins.
According to my intel, if DNR/LNR don’t lose their cool watching how their peaceful population gets bombed every day, Kiev plans to re-start war by beginning its own massive attack, as seen above. In either event, the escalation of conflict will allow Kiev to cancel local elections.
As we see, the plan is multi-prong and multi-layered, according to the famous CIA manual. The biggest price [prize?] here is still Russia. The ultimate goal, if DNR/LNR are attacked full force and Minsk agreements are broken, is to make Russia lose her cool and send troops to protect Donbass.
We know it was attempted multiple times since last year in Donbass, Kharkov and Odessa. The latest provocation this summer was to fully blockade Pridnestrovie, containing Russian peacekeepers and Russian citizens. That was a very dangerous moment.
The Pridnestrovie blockade was orchestrated by the US agents Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk together with Romania, in order to drag Russia into an open war. However, it didn’t work out due to several skillful maneuvers by Russia and EU. Instead of Ukraine, Moldova opened its borders for Russian supplies, thus releasing pressure, at least temporarily.
The story of Pridnestrovie is still very convoluted and the next big problem is anticipated in December 2015. All this is connected to the general Black Sea geopolitical fault line that is ripening at this time. I am watching it and will probably do a piece on it later in the year. Stay tuned!
Intel 3
Today Ukraine is celebrating its independence-from-Russia day. Some call it: ‘the independence from the common sense day.’
After participating in early celebrations and officially announcing his alliance with Yatsenyuk and Klichko, Poroshenko will the same day fly to Berlin to meet with Merkel and Hollande. Therefore, the announcement of the Porosh-Yats-Klich election coalition has been deliberately orchestrated to coincide with the independence day – for internal consumption, and with the trip to Berlin – for external consumption.
Poroshenko is trying to demonstrate something to the EU. That he is serious about staying in his post? That he means business and wants to win local elections? Or that he can in fact work with others? Or he thinks that’s how he can get more money? All of the above, I think.
There are many speculations why he is meeting with EU leaders without Putin (the Minsk and Normandy formats assume four countries participating). My view is that Lavrov and Putin have tried to instill in Holande (sic) and Merkel that Russia won’t tolerate a new escalation in Donbass, especially before the elections. It appears Poroshenko is being called on the carpet for a bit of reprimand and thrashing, but also to promise him more support if he behaves a little better.
Most analysts are sounding alarm over the upcoming new war escalation, predicting a major attempt by Ukraine to re-establish its control over entire Donbass and the Russian border. Access to the Russian border is crucial for the Republics. It is their only lifeline.
I can tell you right away such plan is absolutely doomed and this Kiev junta will never be able to take over DNR and LNR, nor the Russian border. Previous attempts to attack DNR and LNR resulted in Debaltsevo and Ilovaisk cauldrons with thousands of Ukraine troops dead or taken prisoner. They won’t succeed, however, they can unfortunately cause a lot more death and destruction.
That said, Russia is now using any and all diplomatic leverage with EU to make EU pressure Poroshenko into backing off. EU isn’t interested in a new military escalation either. EU is now facing African/Middle Eastern migrant crisis of staggering proportions (see my post). They can’t afford any additional instability to the east.
At least in that, Russia and EU are united. However hard the US tries to portray a united front against Russia, EU and US are experiencing a widening rift over Ukraine. I wrote previously that EU cannot rebel openly against the US because every time they are attempting an even remotely independent policy, France or Germany experience a false flag.
They have to tread very softly, thus a very low-key meeting with Poroshenko in Berlin. Ukraine will likely be promised more money from the EU, as a sort of carrot, if it at least attempts to observe certain appearances.
So far, Ukraine has been kept on life support by both US and EU. This ties up US and EU resources. The longer such situation lasts, the better for Russia.
The initial idea was to put a wedge between Russia and EU, exhaust and break Russian economy, create anti-Russia out of Ukraine and tie up the Russian army in Ukraine after Russia would break down and send peacekeepers to Ukraine.
None of the above worked our very well for the ‘planners.’ There is a school of thought that suggests that Russia is tying up a lot of resources supporting Donbass (about 2.5 million people left there since the war started), therefore, weakening her economy.
But Donbas is one of the most developed territories of the former Ukraine, which provided during good times up to 30% of Ukraine’s GDP. The rest of Ukraine is much larger in size and much less productive. Kiev, western and central Ukraine were subsidised by Donbass and the rest of the South-East.
Pay attention, US and EU taxpayers! US is stuck having to support the entire Ukraine: 30-35 million people and the territory the size of France. Nuland and US State Dept spent $5 bln to subvert Ukraine. How much do they spend daily now to KEEP UKRAINE ON LIFE SUPPORT, especially considering all the crooks and thieves in power, pocketing most of the US and EU infusions?
In addition to IMF and EU loans, EU provides hidden subsidies in the form of reverse gas supplies from Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Ukraine prides itself in having gotten away from the dependence on Russian gas.
The new gas supply route to Ukraine looks like this: first Russia send gas via Ukraine to Central Europe, or via Nord Stream to Germany. Then, part of this gas purchased by the EU gets sent BACK to Ukraine to make it seem as if Ukraine is independent from Russia. The price of what is called ‘reverse gas supply’ is lower than Ukraine pays directly to Russia.
And now a trick question: who do you think subsidises this gas and who pays for it when Ukraine, the country in de-facto default state, can’t pay? That’s right, the EU taxpayers, especially Germans.
Of course, Ukraine still has to buy some gas directly from Russia, but Russia has put Ukraine on a strict pre-payment schedule.
Previously, Russia subsidised for years Ukraine’s gas purchases. The money saved on this new gas arrangement can be spent on Donbass.
Having lost some serious electric power capacity after DNR and LNR seceded (they produce 30% of former Ukraine’s electricity), Ukraine also buys electricity from Russia at subsidised prices. Russia still continues subsidising Ukraine’s electricity. Part of it is in fact Donbass electricity, which now goes through Russia and then gets routed to Ukraine, which attests to the idiocy of the Kiev junta. Just like in that old joke: to spite my enemy I’ll kill my goat so my children would have no milk.
Instead of having good relations with Russia and buying gas directly at a good price, they prefer to beg EU for reverse supply, inconveniencing everyone in the process. Instead of buying electricity directly from Donbass, they declare a war against them so Donbass routes its produced electricity to Russia, after which Kiev begs its enemy No. 1 Russia to sell them some electricity. When god wants to punish someone, he takes away their reason…
Of course, that’s exactly what the puppet masters who are pulling Ukraine’s strings want. They can’t manipulate sane people. They need crazies and crooks for their plan to work. Since Ukraine has turned into the world’s largest insane asylum cum mafia state, they are having a feast.
I know, the news aren’t as rainbowy as many of my readers would like. But every cloud has a silver lining. The crazier they act, the sooner the population of Ukraine will start awakening from this madness. The signs are already there. The diplomacy at large is working better and better. The restrained Russian position is already heard by some in the EU, and more and more are starting to doubt the official party line.
Recall my timeline for the turnaround in Ukraine: 2016-18. We are getting closer and it’s all developing according to plan.
