Peacekeeping efforts in Donbass collapse as Ukraine intensifies bombardments
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/peacekeeping-efforts-in-donbass.html
The withdrawal of Russian officers from the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire in Donbass (JCCC) in Ukrainian-occupied Soledar has now officially been followed by a Ukrainian withdrawal from the JCCC. The OSCE mission in Donbass is now threatened with collapse as its essential participants - Russian and Ukrainian JCCC collaborators - have abandoned their posts.
The center could resume work, as Russia’s Ministry of Defense has laid out its terms for Russian officers returning to work for the JCCC, but in order for this to happen, Ukraine would have to guarantee the smooth implementation of Russian observatory missions and agree to guarantee the security of Russian officers. For now, at least, there is reason to hope that Kiev will capitulate and fulfill these reasonable demands, but not out of good will - but because, in my opinion, a deterioration of the situation in Donbass over the next few weeks is not part of the Ukrainian leadership’s plan.
This view seems to be supported by the ceasefire resolution adopted on December 20th at a session of the Contact Group in Minsk, in which the parties to the conflict in Donbass agreed on a truce for the Christmas and New Year holidays, set to enter into force on December 23rd. While the experience of the “bread truce” and “school truce” do not inspire any optimism (Ukrainian forces broke the school truce literally half an hour into it), it is still very doubtful that Ukraine will risk so daringly violating another agreement. This is why a new, big war in at least the coming days is unlikely.
However, there are also arguments and evidence that contradict this opinion. Over the past several days, the intensity of Ukrainian bombardments has increased. Especially hard hit has been the mining town of Gorlovka located right at the junction of the DPR and LPR’s lines of defense. On December 20th, right after Russia’s officers withdrew from the JCCC, Ukrainian troops shelled 16 residential areas outside of Donetsk. The OSCE itself has since reported that the situation is indeed sharply deteriorating.
On December 20th, I managed to get on the phone my friends from the editorial board of the Cossack Herald newspaper and New Channel of Novorossiya online TV channel based out of Stakhanov in the Lugansk People’s Republic. I can now share with Fort Russ readers the latest news from on the ground.
According to my colleagues, on both December 19th and the night of December 20th Stakhanov and Pervomaysk were subjected to serious shelling from large-caliber mortars, the results of which you can see in their footage:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9gjkXL7xjM (1:41 min.)
According to them, unfortunately, there were casualties - an elderly woman was killed by an exploding mortar.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian media reported on December 20th with reference to unidentified Donetsk residents that the military leadership of the DPR has announced mobilization for combat readiness. According to this unverified information, the New Year holidays of DPR People’s Militia servicemen have been cancelled. We are checking this report with our sources in Donetsk and will keep Fort Russ readers up to date.
Overall, we can say that the situation in Donbass does not inspire any optimism. Not only soldiers, but also politicians on both sides of the front are speaking of the possibility of a new big war. The only question seems to be when the conflict will break out again, and it cannot be ruled out that the outbreak of a new war could be accelerated by the political front, as the tense political situation ongoing in Kiev and the threat posed to President Poroshenko’s authority could lead to the unleashing of a Ukrainian blitzkrieg.
We have more than once expressed our opinion that the Ukrainian leadership has attentively studied Lenin’s tactics in the run up to the Bolsheviks' seizure of power, namely, the tactic of turning an imperialist, external war into a civil war. Poroshenko is currently working in the opposite direction to turn the internal civil war - which will inevitably take his authority, savings, and probably life - into an external war, even at the cost of the full and final defeat of the Ukrainian Army. The oligarch president’s interests are being put above the interests of the whole country, or what is left of it.
On December 18th, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that 75 officers of Russia’s armed forces are quitting the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire in Donbass stationed in Soledar (Ukrainian-occupied DPR territory). Further work of the Russian officers in the JCCC has been deemed “impossible” due to their lack of jurisdiction and an intense psychological and political atmosphere.
War on the Horizon? Russian aides pressured out of Donbass peacekeeping
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/war-on-horizon-russian-aides-pressured.html
According to Russia’s defense ministry, the Ukrainians have deliberately impeded Russian officers from carrying out their duties. Their freedom of movement has been severely restricted, and Ukrainian spies have accompanied the Russian officers wherever they go. The straw that broke the camel’s back, however, was Ukraine’s Verkhovna Rada’s adoption of a new law on Russian citizens visiting Ukraine set to enter into force on January 1, 2018.
In particular, this new law compels all Russian officers from the JCCC visiting Ukraine to disclose all information on their place of birth, the location of their families, their service and training records, etc. In other words, Russian officers helping to monitor the ceasefire have been subjected to overt psychological pressure and their families could be put in danger.
The JCCC was established to resolve practical problems facing the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission, whose employees initially appealed to Russian officers from the JCCC to handle communication with the command of the armies of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as coordinate the routes of international observers.
Russian officers therefore fulfilled the role of intermediaries, insofar as the Ukrainians and OSCE SMM are not in direct contact the unrecognized DPR and LPR. This scheme is far from convenient, but it was accepted as necessary in the midst of the critical situation in Donbass.
The history of the monitoring mission in Donbass is a shady one. In late April 2017, an American citizen working as an observer for the OSCE SMM was killed in an explosion when he ignored the rules on movement around the village of Prishin on the frontline between the LPR and Ukraine. The People’s Militia of the LPR provided convincing evidence that a Ukrainian sabotage group was involved in the American's murder, but the case was hushed up.
Moreover, repeated cases have been exposed in which Ukrainian attacks directly correlate with the observatory missions of the OSCE, whose employees always manage to leave the scene before Ukrainian shells come raining down. In Avdeevka last year, OSCE employees were caught hanging around Ukrainian tanks in residential areas.
A direct consequence of the withdrawal of Russian officers from the JCCC will be the complication of the OSCE SMM’s work, and, as follows, increasing danger facing its employees. However, there is an more distant, but even more dangerous prospect visible on the surface of this turmoil. In my opinion, this event speaks to a sharp increase in the threat of war breaking out.
To be more precise, it suggests that we are nearing the beginning of a new war in Donbass.
Over the past two and a half years since the Debaltsevo cauldron and signing of the second Minsk Agreements, the Ukrainians have steadily amassed military vehicles and soldiers along the borders of the Donbass republics. Their troops have been instructed and trained by NATO officers. In Ukraine, de-facto NATO operational bases have been established (contrary to Ukraine’s constitutional law on non-aligned status), and the US has established a naval base in Ochakov. In other words, the Ukrainians have used the breathing space provided by Minsk 2 to increase their army’s combat capability and foreign backing. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s offensive actions have been bolstered by the diplomatic support of the US’ special representative on Ukraine, Kurt Volker.
In view of all of this, the possibility of a new, full-scale war breaking out in winter or early spring next year looks all the more realistic.
My opinion on this matter coincides with that of the First Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Federation Council's Committee on Defense and Security, Franz Klintsevich. In an interview on December 18th, Klintsevich stated that Russian officers’ withdrawal from the JCCC would lead to Ukrainian authorities trying to directly and without intermediaries engage the DPR and LPR. Kiev, however, as recent history has shown, is in no position to hold peaceful negotiations with the Donbass republics, and therefore would likely unleash full-scale military operations.
Klintsevich emphasized in particular that Russia would have to intervene if the situation turns into a large-scale Ukrainian attack on Donbass. In his words: “We do not have the right to allow genocide against Russian people. I am convinced that we are obliged to intervene in this process.”
The probable consequences of this step have likely also been calculated in Kiev. For Ukraine, it is important to pretend that it has no intention of impeding an international peacekeeping mission in Donbass, for which it has been lobbying, and claim that it has by no means obstructed the freedom of movement of Russian officers from the JCCC. Yet on the very same day of December 18th, news arrived that the leaving Russian officers had been held up from departing for DPR territory, allegedly (according to Ukraine) due to shelling coming from the direction of the Donetsk People’s Republic which could have “threatened their lives and security.” Thus, the Russian officers in effect became hostages held on Ukrainian-occupied territory on questionable, unverified grounds.
In a telephone conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin explained the reasons for the withdrawal of the Russian officers from the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of issues related to the ceasefire and stabilization of the situation (JCCC), the Kremlin press service said on Thursday.
Putin explains to Merkel reasons for withdrawal of Russian officers from JCCC
http://tass.com/politics/982418
Putin said, in particular, that
"the Ukrainian authorities had been for a long time complicating conditions for the stay of our military and performance of their duties through different restrictions and provocations". "There was no reaction to our repeated suggestions to settle the inadmissible situation at hand," he said.
During the conversation initiated by Germany, "the leaders of Russia and Germany agreed to continue discussing pending issues, whose settlement is necessary to restart a full-scale activity of the JCCC," the Kremlin press service said.
They agreed "that aides to the two countries’ leaders will additionally address the terms that would make the return of the Russian officers within that structure possible," the press service added.
Putin and Merkel spoke in favor of translating into action as soon as possible the initiative on a mutual exchange of prisoners by the sides in the Ukrainian conflict. They also backed a Christmas truce declared by the Contact Group.
German Cabinet spokesman Steffen Seibert said in a statement the two leaders "welcomed the truce, announced in the run-up to Christmas and confirmed yesterday by the trilateral Contact Group, and expressed hope that it transforms into a long-term ceasefire in the east of Ukraine."
"The federal chancellor and the Russian president stressed the importance of agreements on prisoner swap, which should take place as soon as possible, being an important step toward implementing the Minsk agreements," the statement reads.
According to the spokesman, the sides also stressed the importance of work of the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ukrainian ceasefire.
"Merkel stressed that the Center’s ability to perform its duties needs to be preserved," Seibert said. "The sides agreed that certain issues should be solved, so that Russian officers could return to the JCCC.".
The Russian officers making part of the JCCC left Donbass on December 19.
The Russian Foreign Ministry explained earlier that "Kiev was adamantly opposed to any documents regulating the JCCC's work." "Attempts to tackle the issue at the bilateral level, at the Minsk Contact Group or in the Normandy format were not successful," the ministry said.
Moreover, Ukraine, in violation of the agreements reached by the Russian and Ukrainian presidents on the JCCC, deliberately created a strained moral and psychological atmosphere for the Russian military servicemen that formed part of it, caused difficulties for performing their professional duties. In particular, it restricted the Russian officers’ access to the line of engagement, inspections at the joint observation posts deployed to the areas controlled by Ukraine.
"It came to banning communication with the local population. There were cases of Ukrainian military servicemen’s disrespectful attitude to their Russian counterparts," the Russian Foreign Ministry noted.
Members of the Contact Group on resolving the situation in eastern Ukraine decided to set up a Joint Centre for Control and Coordination at a Minsk meeting held on October 2, 2014. The JCCC is expected to coordinate processes concerning the Donbass ceasefire and resolve issues aimed at stabilizing the situation in the region in compliance with the Minsk Agreements.
The Washington Post said earlier the State Department approved a commercial license authorizing the export of sniper systems and ammunition to Ukraine.
Trump's administration approves lethal arms sales to Ukraine — US State Department
http://tass.com/world/982173
The US Department of State has confirmed licensing commercial export of US-manufactured lethal weapons to Ukraine.
"The Department of State has licensed the commercial export of a limited number of small arms and light weapons to Ukraine from U.S. manufacturers,"
According to the official, the United States has "never had any policy that restricts such commercial sales." "The United States reviews requests for sales and export license applications on a case by case basis and this one was no different," he said.
"The United States government has neither directly sold nor granted defensive weapons to Ukraine nor ruled out the option of doing so," he added.
The Washington Post said earlier citing its sources in the US government that the Department of State had approved a commercial license for exports to Ukraine of Barrett M107A1 sniper systems, munitions and spare parts for them to a sum of $41.5 million. "We have crossed the Rubicon, this is lethal weapons and I predict more will be coming," the newspaper cited a senior congressional official.
Earlier, Canada put Ukraine on the list of countries to which it can export weapons
Russia warns US, Canada against weapons supplies to Ukraine
http://tass.com/politics/981757
Russia has warned the US and Canada about consequences of arms shipments to Ukraine. Speaking at a meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia’s first deputy permanent representative to the UN, Pyotr Ilyichev said that shipments of US and Canadian weapons to Ukraine are pushing the country’s leadership to new military adventures.
The diplomat drew attention to reports that Canada announced its readiness to issue licenses to its companies for arms deliveries to Ukraine, and American companies, in particular the manufacturer of hand grenade launchers Airtronic USA, "are already supplying weapons to Kiev, gaining a consent of both the State Department and the Pentagon behind-the-scenes, although officially the US declares that there is no final decision on this matter."
"We would like to recommend those who are pushing (the countries) to such decisions and take them, to think about responsibility. It is clear that the pumping of Ukraine with American and Canadian means of war pushes the country’s leadership, which sabotages the Minsk agreements, to new military adventures. Everyone should understand that the conflict in the Donbass will not be resolved by force, and those who give arms to the murderers will be to blame for the death of people there, "Ilyichev said.
Earlier it was reported that Canada had put Ukraine on the list of countries that are allowed to sell Canadian automatic weapons. The corresponding information was published by the Canada Gazette, the official publication of the Canadian government. The document notes that applications for the import or export of goods, according to national legislation, are considered by the Government of Canada on a case-by-case basis in accordance with Canadian international and defense policies. At present, this list includes 39 countries, most of them are NATO members.
The Washington Post has reported that the US approved an export license for supplies of ammunition, large-caliber sniper rifles and spare parts worth more than 41 million dollars to the Ukraine.
Conflicting reports on whether the US has approved supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/12/conflicting-reports-on-whether-us-has.html
Deliveries of lethal weapons to Ukraine can "warm up the hotheads of nationalists who want to unleash new bloodshed in the Donbass" stated the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov.
At the same time, Peskov noted that there had not been any official statements from Washington."
"These reports of the American press do not correspond to reality, while no official decisions were taken on this matter," he stressed.
} as part of his official visit, which included testimony before the House of Commons foreign affairs committee.
