Coming Earthquakes

[GMFaudio]

Very much sign of the times. I read that America had a quake in Colorado and in Virginia, at very close times.


Colorado Quake
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/08/23/colorado.quake/index.html?hpt=us_c2

Virginia Quake
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/alert-earthquake-rocks-central-virginia-dc-region/2011/08/23/gIQAMwvEZJ_blog.html

 

[beherenow]

Hi all, I'm not sure if this is where I should post this ( Please feel free to move it)...but I just felt a pretty good little shake here ( southeastern Pa ) today at around 2:00 pm est. First time i ever felt one(I didn't feel yesterdays,,,this one was centered in SW Va )...pretty strange helpless kind of feeling I must say...

I was sitting at the com reading something on Wikipedia, on a 5 wheel office chair..with my feet on the chair pedestal.. not on the floor.. (also its a shop/office built on a cement slab on the ground)...and it felt like some invisible prankster grabbed my chair and rolled me back and forth a couple of inches about 5 or 6 times..nothing fell or rattled...no rumble or sound..(its a nice day here, the windows were open, and nothing was making noise)

I guess it kicked in the amigluda (?) cause all the hairs on my neck were standing after it stopped... i also felt another very different sensation that I've never experienced....I'm not sure if I can describe it..like some kind of magnetic wave or field passed thru me also..??

It wasn't really scary ..more disconcerting and ...confusing...it took a couple of seconds till I realized the earth was moving under me..
..I slid out from the desk and turned to look at my most cluttered shelf (nothing moving) and that's when the "wave" feeling seemed to pass thru...I know this sounds weird, but it blurred my vision for a second....and..felt "jumbled up" inside...

its given me a whole new level of empathy when I think about what a larger one must feel like..utterly terrifying ..I gotta go, still feeling a little weird... thanks for listening, Dave

 

[3DStudent]

I too was at work and in Maryland when the central Virginia quake hit. Everybody got out of the building after it. I was kind of confused when it happened, and scared after it happened. I thought it might start again with aftershocks.

I kind of enjoyed the stay in nice weather outside while the building was inspected. And despite not being able to call anyone, just the mobile internet worked. So I knew this was a large area thing with the phone networks down.

I kind of had the feeling that everyone in my family was ok though. Or maybe I just don't worry much about those things. I think I have a little Right Man syndrome to the effect of, "Yeah, Earth changes are coming and this is what happens!"

 

[Ca.]

I too was at work and in Maryland when the central Virginia quake hit. Everybody got out of the building after it. I was kind of confused when it happened, and scared after it happened. I thought it might start again with aftershocks.

I kind of had the feeling that everyone in my family was ok though. Or maybe I just don't worry much about those things. I think I have a little Right Man syndrome to the effect of, "Yeah, Earth changes are coming and this is what happens!"

Thought this might be of use. Some valuable tips.

As a former resident to the bayarea, Oakland, in the state of California of the United States, and living virtually on the Hayward fault line, the 1989 earthquake from the San Andreas fault was a Wake up call that, that current location was "5th density on the hill" waiting to happen. Exit stage left, and right.

The Hayward Fault: Predictable Peril: Video on Sep 30, 2008
by Amy Miller from QUEST Northern California

October 21st, 2008 marked the 140th Anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake. Geologists say that's important because major earthquakes happen on the Hayward fault every 140 years on average. With much of the East Bay on or near the fault, geologists and community members are working to prepare for what may be the next big one.

http://science.kqed.org/quest/video/the-hayward-fault-predictable-peril/

 

[bngenoh]

Dutchsinse has another video out: _http://sincedutch.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/352012-entire-south-and-midwest-steaming-plume-event-be-alert-and-aware/

It shows what he thinks are plumes caused by magma heating the water underneath the states where the plumes are seen. Maybe something, maybe not. What do you guys think?

 

[TheSpoon]

This week we had our 3rd quake in a year at that same spot in the Western Mediterranean Sea
__http://earthquake-report.com/2012/03/04/earthquakes-list-march-4-2012/

We've just passed a full moon so I did a check back to the previous quake to see if there was any correlation, but didn't find an obvious one (this one was 3 days before a full moon, previous one was 7 days before full moon - too few data points). Also considering whether this weeks solar activity might be relevant (obviously that would be a global affect, and I'm only investigating my local event here).

I did a search for general trends in earthquake frequency and found a graph which is dramatically worrying
_http://www.earth.webecs.co.uk/
but I won't reproduce it here because although the author admitted that the increase in number and quality of seismographs would create an upward trend in the graph, he chose not to filter that out (eg by considering only earthquakes of 7.0 and above that would be detected in all cases). Also it only goes up to 2006, so I found some more up to date data here: _http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php

And pulled the numbers into Excel to form this graph for years 2000 - 2011. The trend line is a 2nd order Polynomial, although the common or garden linear trend is almost identical.

So that's a global count of all detected earthquakes over 5.0 on the Richter scale (the french for this - échelle de Richter - tickles me, makes me think someone has borrowed the bloke's ladder). Unfortunately I had to ignore earthquakes between 4.0 and 4.9 because "Starting in January 2009, the USGS National Earthquake Information Center no longer locates earthquakes smaller than magnitude 4.5 outside the United States" which threw those numbers in the table out. Which is a shame, because the count of 4.0 - 4.9 earthquakes is massively higher than all greater earthquakes put together - would have been interesting to have included those.

 

[HiThere]

Looks foreboding. Thank you for the compilation.

 

[ziggystarlust]

This is somewhat interesting. A cycle that connects major earthquakes into approximately 188 days. There is a discussion involving a Heavy Mass Object theory and the constellation of Leo. Oooooohhhh. We'll see around March 22, 2012...

_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJiLKUoPdaA&feature=related

and this video is more of a demonstration and explanation of the theory...

_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNGDzLCkDGM&feature=youtu.be

 

[bngenoh]

This is somewhat interesting. A cycle that connects major earthquakes into approximately 188 days. There is a discussion involving a Heavy Mass Object theory and the constellation of Leo. Oooooohhhh. We'll see around March 22, 2012...

_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJiLKUoPdaA&feature=related

and this video is more of a demonstration and explanation of the theory...

_http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNGDzLCkDGM&feature=youtu.be

Maybe there is something approaching us, but it's no dark star, osit. He's only data points are chile, Japan, Christchurch, and Fiji, it's always easier to create a hypothesis, and find facts to fit same. It is much harder to assemble all the facts without prejudice, assumptions, etc, and let them speak, ie let them dictate the formation of the hypothesis.

"I" went to SolarSystemScope, and indeed there is an alignment between Sun, Mercury, Moon, and Earth, on March 22, factoring the Electric Universe theories, there is a higher chance of an event occurring, before or after that alignment, but that's all i can say with my current knowledge and understanding, only 6 days or so, so guess it's a wait and see.

 

[Biomiast]

Maybe there is something approaching us, but it's no dark star, osit. He's only data points are chile, Japan, Christchurch, and Fiji, it's always easier to create a hypothesis, and find facts to fit same. It is much harder to assemble all the facts without prejudice, assumptions, etc, and let them speak, ie let them dictate the formation of the hypothesis.

Very true. But it is easy to falsify this one, we just have to wait to 22nd March and see for ourselves. My initial thought was that there are so much 7.0+ earthquakes nowadays that it is possible to have some occasional hits by pure chance. It could be like this for 22nd March as well, or there might be other causes.

As for the heavy mass object, I think the maker of the video has some tendency to fit the data to theories as you said. For this reason, I am not sure he can be trusted with the raw data and what he does to make this data more "convenient". Reminds me of Kahnemann talking about Google's story where everything seems successful decisions because the author, and in this case video maker, tells his narrative in such a way that there is little doubt in us that it has to be a heavy mass object and 188 day cycle. It would be nice to find some debunking videos just to get outside perspective but there isn't much serious guys doing it. All I saw was unfounded attacks with no relation to scientific aspects of the theory.

Maybe more knowledgable members on astronomy could take a look and say whether the hypothesis is plausible or not?

Either way, we can just wait and see. My two cents, fwiw.

 

[ziggystarlust]

Maybe there is something approaching us, but it's no dark star, osit. He's only data points are chile, Japan, Christchurch, and Fiji, it's always easier to create a hypothesis, and find facts to fit same. It is much harder to assemble all the facts without prejudice, assumptions, etc, and let them speak, ie let them dictate the formation of the hypothesis.

"I" went to SolarSystemScope, and indeed there is an alignment between Sun, Mercury, Moon, and Earth, on March 22, factoring the Electric Universe theories, there is a higher chance of an event occurring, before or after that alignment, but that's all i can say with my current knowledge and understanding, only 6 days or so, so guess it's a wait and see.

Not sure myself. But four data points is pretty good. Science was my worst subject but space/cosmos was an interest! I wonder about several scenarios. Leo + the wave, or the effects of the twin sun because of it's placement (wherever that may be), or an approaching cluster of comets. We'll see...

[mod: quote fixed]

 

[bngenoh]

Not sure myself. But four data points is pretty good. Science was my worst subject but space/cosmos was an interest! I wonder about several scenarios. Leo + the wave, or the effects of the twin sun because of it's placement (wherever that may be), or an approaching cluster of comets. We'll see...

Beg to differ ziggystarlust, especially in the context of such uncharted territory, as the effects of various astronomical bodies and their configurations, on the Earth. When you are in such uncharted territory, you wanna have as much evidence as possible, which necessarily means the least amount of logical leaps required, and that entails the collection of evidence, in as much quantity & quality, as one can collect.

4 data points, is freaking elementary school level, if that, then he has to rely on a gigantic leap for the little facts he has, to fit his hypothesis, while there is sooo much more evidence that he could have collected, if he chose to, but didn't as it would probably tell him, something along the lines of, "i don't know what the hell is going on, so why the hell would i try to explain to someone else, something that i have very little if any understanding of." But that's just me.

 

[TheSpoon]

As Biomiast says, not long to wait for the next data point to see if the idea has any merit whatsoever. In the meantime, on this question of whether or not you can take four datapoints and draw any conclusions about what you're looking at, an illustration came to mind:

 

[bngenoh]

The Spoon, ;)

 

[Biomiast]

March 22nd is not over yet, but may I call Terral's hypothesis is not holding up? It past almost 12 hours after so called big event Terral predicted. There was another person in his group claiming his son "saw" things. It turned out to be false also.

Terral himself commented that "I may miscalculate the heavy mass object". Now, people on his research group make all kinds of excuses why it didn't happen. Some say it did happen, not just a 9.0 magnitude event. Some were blaming HAARP etc, all kinds of stuff.

Some of them are ready to accept 5.0 magnitudes a success. Excuse me? It happens all the time.


On another note, I have discovered a website from Turkey where the person claims he can predict earthquakes within the range of 6-20 hours with some error margin. If he is not lying about his previous posts, and if his website clocks are accurate, he predicted many earthquakes before, including recent Mexico earthquake, using a device. He claims his measurements are scientific, but I don't pretend to understand his device, and he doesn't explain it properly.

This is his recent post, I am paraphrasing a little:

Signal is small, insidious and dangerous.

An earthquake in the Western and Central Anatolia between 4.7 and 5.2, if it doesn't happen it will be on magnitude 6.0

If Far East(vicinity of Indonesia and China OR between Central and South America minimum: 7.0, maximum 8.0) earthquake happens before, above earthquake doesn't exceed magnitude 4.7

First indications are apparent within 6-24 hours, and are completed with 72 hours.

_http://www.veysikurtdeprem.com/haber_detay.aspx?id=604

I think this is basically what he says, though his sentences are confusing, I may have misunderstood him. I am putting his "prediction" out there so we can check if it indeed happens. The problem with him is, he doesn't give regular predictions, sometimes he never posts anything for weeks, somethimes he does it three times a week.

If the Far East earthquake happens, I think Terral might attribute it to his Heavy Mass Object and happy with himself for another 188 days.