Geopolitical Analysis: A Bird's-Eye View of the Global Situation

[heinrich]

We live in a 3D world. An STS 3D world. It's a grim fact, and so 3D geo-political analysis has got to have its place. But awareness of 4D is a hell of an advantage, but it's not going to help you survive when all hell is breaking loose in your neck of the woods. Unfortunately, I speak from personal experience.

New Caledonia is a French Overseas Territory in the South Pacific, one of the world's great nickel reserves. However, the indigenous Kanaks have been seeking Independence from the French State almost since colonisation. The last great violent uprising, the civil war in the mid 1980s, was concluded with an agreement on a 30-year road map to self-determination, which culminated in 3 referenda on independence which took place in 2018, 2020 and 2021. The French loyalist vote triumphed in each case, though the third referendum remains contested by the pro-independence parties who called for their supporters to boycott the vote. To cut a very long story short, in November 2023, one of the radical pro-independence parties created a separate structure, the Cell for Coordination of Field Action (le CCAT, in French) to contest, in a more muscular way, the proposed opening of the electorate to long-term New Caledonian residents, which would bring an end to the pro-independence parties' dream of gaining independence through democratic process.

The vote on the electoral reform was passed in the French Senate, and then in the National Assembly (13th May, the beginning of the riots), and thus only needs to be passed in the Congress of Versailles (the Senate and the National Assembly, the French Parliament, in a joint vote) to become law. However, on the night of the vote in the National Assembly, riots broke out in the industrial and working-class districts of the capital city, Nouméa, and the three surrounding communes. The rioters were thousands of young Kanaks, between 15-25 years old, plied with alcohol, cannabis and amphetamines by the CCAT, and told to destroy everything! And they did. Basically, in a three-night blitzkrieg (though the we're still in a state of unrest three weeks later) they destroyed over 500 companies (factories, shops, warehouses, car showrooms), caused upwards of €1bn of damage, razed countless houses, burnt who-knows-how-many cars, and caused the loss of approximately 5,000 jobs and temporary unemployment for 15,000 more. And the worst was avoided! Only rapid intervention from the elite military police units prevented the rioters taking control of the airport (key for military reinforcements from France) and the port (key for food supply lines), and also prevented them from blowing up Nouméa's petrol and gas reserves and cutting the water supply. Let that sink in.

Whole districts and major roads were sealed off with roadblocks by the rioters, to the extent that the southern districts of Nouméa were blocked off from the rest of New Caledonia for nearly two weeks and no food could be delivered to the remaining supermarkets, and the rioters became the law in their own mini-fiefdoms. Access to the hospitals were blocked, and numerous schools have been burnt down or even used as observation posts for snipers who have tried to shoot down French military aircraft. The French military and police have been targeted by the rioters, with over 150 wounded and 1 death so far. Though there have been 'only' 7 deaths directly resulting from violence, many old and sick people, and even babies, have died from not being able to get the medical help they require.

This is where it gets interesting and particularly relevant to this thread. The meticulous organisation of the riots, the guerrilla warfare strategies, the methodical manipulation of the international and national press to present the extreme violence as a justified protest for freedom from colonisation, a vicious smear campaign against the French loyalists, and the saturation of the social media networks show this is not simply civil unrest, but a coup d'état supported by a foreign state. Caches of foreign weapons have been found, and at the beginning of the riots, a massive cyber-attack from overseas tried to take down New Caledonia's internet. Azerbaijan remains the prime suspect, the same country whose Parliament, incidentally, signed a Memorandum of Cooperation in April with the radical pro-independence President of New Caledonia's Congress.

You may recall that Azerbaijan doesn't appreciate Macron meddling in its war against Armenia, and Azerbaijan has close ties with Russia, which doesn't appreciate Macron's tub-thumping support for Ukraine and the French soldiers on Ukrainian soil.

The Élysée Palace gave local politicians a month to find a political solution to the situation (!), but order has not been fully restored despite the presence of 3500 military/police personnel, and the CCAT have continued to issue ultimatums to Macron to withdraw the electoral reform under the threat of upping the ante to take down the institutions (Congress, Government, Town Halls, Provincial Councils).

Unless Macron pulls a rabbit out of a hat, he has two basic options: give in to the the CCAT's demands and risk an equally violent response from the exhausted and scared French loyalists, or use military force to restore Republican law and order. In any case, the economy is wrecked, the social fabric of the country has been torn apart and a mass exodus is on the cards, as soon as flights start up again.

Oh, and I haven't even mentioned the catastrophe of the three nickel factories and the looming shadow of China.

If we join the dots, we might see this as merely the hors d'oeuvre for 4D STS!
Have a great day!

thank you for this excellent summary

 

[heinrich]

I think you're misaddressing your criticism. Niemi is an analyst, not a politician. As for those 100 years, some have learn, some haven't. Here is one example of a politician and state leader who has, and against all odds, puts the lesson into action. There are some more like him, but you (general "you") won't hear much about them if you don't know where to search, often facing the language barrier. So such politicians need others who would made their positions known. Like Robert Fico, for example. How many Westerners knew his name before the recent assassination attempt?

Sunday afternoon (May 26), Hungarian YT channel Patrióta published an interview with Viktor Orbán (in Hungarian). It was BIG and meaningful. Skipping his warm words about Fico and parts that concern strictly domestic issues, here is what he said.

Magyar Nemzet , May 27



A few more quotes from various sources:











Minister Gergely Gulyás, Head of the Prime Minister’s Office, press conference, May 23:



Now, this is not related to the interview, but it shows how serious Orban is about finding a way to implement some kind of an opt-out status of Hungary's membership in NATO.

The Last Refuge


As Mateusz Piskorski pointed out (video, in Polish) an opt-out, or non-participation status is not unheard of. At the time of establishing the organisation, three founding countries managed to negotiate it: Iceland, Norway and Denmark. They did not agree for foreign military bases and nuclear weapons on their territory, and presence of other NATO member states' troops was possible only by a special permission issued each time. And there was a special status for France in the years 1996-2009.

Then, there was an interview by Kossuth Radio and Orban's speech at the Peace March (up to 100 000 people) recently. A few more quotes, sources and links underneath.











Hungary wants to prevent Europe from entering war with Russia - TASS
Orban: ‘NATO is Now Preparing for War With Russia’ - 21st Century Wire
PM Orban: It Is Unacceptable for Others to Decide over Hungarians' Blood - Magyar Nemzet
PM Orban: Preparations Under Way in Brussels to Take Europe to War - Magyar Nemzet
Viktor Orban warned Russia: NATO is preparing to directly enter the conflict in Ukraine - Pravda-EN
PM Orbán: "We do not want to shed blood for Ukraine" - Daily News Hungary

All European countries, their politicians and citizens should hear it. And act.

"This is the worst European Commission I have ever seen. The commission has turned into a war council, the European Parliament is slowly [becoming] a war body, while people are moving towards peace.” He concluded: “They have not delivered on any of their serious commitments. So why should they be kept"

yes, this "worst european commission" is overstaffed with females. were women not meant to be gentle and kind ??? what happened to our dream women ??? have the men been emasculated ??? oh, females can also be corrupt ??? welcome to the equality of sexes... sexes are not equal, they are different. the respect of the difference is required. to each one, his duty. i am still waiting for the first pregnant man...

 

[NCfugee]

yes, this "worst european commission" is overstaffed with females. were women not meant to be gentle and kind ??? what happened to our dream women ??? have the men been emasculated ??? oh, females can also be corrupt ??? welcome to the equality of sexes... sexes are not equal, they are different. the respect of the difference is required. to each one, his duty. i am still waiting for the first pregnant man...

Just a little anecdote from events in New Caledonia. Police have reported that during the rioting of the last month, young women, teenagers, have been among the most virulent and violent protesters. Maybe not such a surprise when you consider the place of women in the patriarchal Kanak society; oppressed workhorses without a voice subject to terrible levels of domestic and sexual violence.

Further to my earlier post on the attempted coup d'état in NC, the dissolution of the French Parliament has sent a shockwave through society here. Firstly, the contentious electoral reform has effectively been scrapped, and is likely to become a subject for a political negotiation (another Accord) on NC's institutional future, if the various political parties can bear to many any concessions. Secondly, the country is in no position to organise national elections at such short notice with a curfew and a ban on public gatherings still in place, and with tensions still high due to the freedom of movement in some communes being severely restricted. Thirdly, France's 'gently gently' response is being exploited by the largest radical pro-independence party, who declared that it is targeting 24th September 2024 as the date for the declaration of New Caledonia's independence, to be achieved by whatever means necessary. I'll spare you the details of what was a quite stomach-churning public speech by the party's president, worthy of the worst excesses of any of the 20th century's psychopathic leaders (thank you for publishing Political Ponerology! A very enlightening resource). Of course, the dissolution of the government also means that it's going to take a helluva lot longer to send NC the financial aid we desperately need, not just to rebuild, but to cover social security and unemployment benefits for all those who have suffered in the last month.

More and more mainstream commentators are seeing an international aspect to these events, with a focus on Azerbaijan's Baku Initiative Group, which is attacking France through its old colonies. A supra-national aspect has also been evoked, with the dissolution of Parliament a strategy out of Jacques Attali's globalist playbook (Macron's mentor, and former counsellor to Mitterand, and with many fingers in many high-level pies) to sow chaos until 2027, at least. Check out his A Brief History of the Future (2006).

Brings to mind the Laura's recent warning about possible civil strife in France, a mirror to the looming unrest the US (in the current interviews with Jay Campbell, perhaps).

 

[iamthatis]

Sergei Glazyev shares his own bird's-eye view:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800688462632555004

Sergey Glazyev: US is losing because its system of governance is 10 times worse than Southeast Asia; US wants a local nuclear war to regain hegemony; we have to create a very broad anti-war coalition; we will establish a new currency financial system

Thank you. I’d like to make our discussion a little bit more academic. Mr. Pushkov mentioned the laws of history. I’d like to mention the laws of history. It’s important to understand where we are.We are at the stage of changing economic orders. Those changes happen through world wars. It started with the disruption of the Soviet Union and now it’s the disruption of Pax Americana. 30 years ago was quite a classic situation. 40 years ago we talked about it at our Academy of Sciences.

In 2008 it became clear that the world is following a habitual scenario. We call the economic order which is being disrupted “imperial.” There were two poles: the US and the Soviet Union. They were opposite from the political point of view but they both used money for unlimited crediting and they were quite similar in governing the world. It was imperial because the empires were doing it so that everybody could follow this example. The Soviet Union created similar systems in the Soviet Union. Now the People’s Republic of China has all the features of the Chinese Communist Party. The US created the world for transnational corporations.The New World Order that’s coming we call “integral,” using the term coined by Pitirim Sorokin who said that Soviet imperialism and American capitalism will become a new society that’s going to be relieved of laws and would use all the positive features. It will be strategic planning and market competition. It would use the money controlled by the government, unlimitedly crediting investments. Public-private partnerships would be oriented toward maximizing the well-being of the people. It combines all the social interests of all social groups. The government is becoming the integrator. The idea is to raise the well-being. So this new system could be called “socialist” because common values are more important than private values. At the same time, it’s combined with traditional values. It’s not imperial. Here it’s national sovereignty. That’s international law.

So this term integral seems to be key, with government as integrator and not ruler. That's interesting, I've not heard it before. Somewhat socialist, but with traditional values, national sovereignty protected by International law.

Reminds me of this C's session, where Laura discusses a best case scenario social formation:

May 17, 2014:

...Okay, next thing that’s on my mind: This afternoon I was responding to a post on the forum and the post was in the Political Ponerology book thread. As I was writing, it suddenly occurred to me that a problem that has been occupying my mind for many years suddenly became clear. The answer became clear. And the problem was this issue of communism vs. socialism vs. capitalism; the issue of which is best? Because of course I grew up in a capitalist system, but I see all the terrible things about it that have come to pass.

I live now in a country that is largely socialist, and I see a lot of problems that exist in socialism. I’ve read a great deal about communistic systems, and I see that what happened in the communist countries didn’t turn out too well. And I’ve read a lot of sociology, and I understand that without some kind of communism, early man would not have survived and evolved, so there’s a problem with how it was done in those communist countries. Even the early “Jesus people” practiced a form of communism, though fundies nowadays seem to have forgotten that. So, I’ve had this ongoing thing in my mind: Which part of which system to take and put together to make a so to say as close to perfect, benevolent system of economics and law that would serve humanity in the best way.

And it suddenly was clear to me that it depends on scale. I thought that what you need is at the family tribal level - and I say more tribal because it’s like extended family, close friends, etc. and people who are bound to each other by bonds of friendship and affection - should function in the communistic pattern.

That could be filed under 'traditional values' mentioned above - specifically, Pauline Christian type values.

The next level would be the local community, or the town or whatever, which should function at the capitalistic level. Let’s face it, there are things about capitalism that are very useful. People can go out from their homes and they make money for their families by work, there can be shops or factories or whatever that produce products that are then traded or bought/sold with other shops; then communities buy or sell or exchange with other communities, import, export, etc. The members of a family/tribe that work make money, bring it home and share equally all around, and several members of a family can work and take care of the whole family, including children, elderly, disabled.

So we’ve got communism at the family level or the tribal level, capitalism at the community level where communities interact with other communities, and then at the higher government level it should be socialism because then socialism can be a policy-making body. It should be a body that collects a certain amount of funds in the form of a wealth tax and a small poll tax to ensure that everybody has free water, electricity, healthcare, that there are roads, that there is garbage collection, clean air, clean water… In other words, if the wealth tax and poll tax goes to an overarching government, then that government would provide these services to all the communities. And also, there would be local militias supported by these collected funds. So it seems to me that if you have these three different systems operating at different levels – the three scales - I mean, does anybody see any flaw in this?

[...]

But anyhow, I thought that this was kind of a clever solution, and then it was funny because after I talked to Joe about it, I thought, “Ya know, gee! how did I get that answer that just suddenly popped into my head when I was writing something?” It just was really cool.

The C's seem to give their assent:

A: We have said long ago that “we are you in the future”. That future is manifesting more strongly as a result of the increased frequency of communications. You begin to “tune in” several hours before sitting down to “chat”. Also, be aware that this increase of time spent communicating is deepening and widening the conduit. Additionally, the “guests” add an extra dimension and strengthen the network around the planet.

so I found that to be a very interesting correlate to what Glazyev is saying. It doesn't mesh perfectly in terms of terminology, but still, both ideas seem to be 'integral' in some way - a mix of communism, capitalism and socialism.

If I were to guess, I'd say the communism part is hardest for me to understand, but that's because I live in the West, with our famous individualism and alienation. Although there has been a traditionalist pushback against the woke nonsense, so at least there's a basis for it.

Glazyev has more to say:

Liberal globalization after Trump came to power was substituted by new protectionism. Instead of liberalizing economic regulations, the main locomotive for the growth of international trade was joint investments. A wonderful example is the Chinese approach which is “One Belt, One Road.”Our focus proved to be true. The US is losing because its system of governance is 10 times worse than what was created in Southeast Asia. It’s agony. It’s agony—agony of the old center which is alone after the disruption of the Soviet Union. They cannot suggest anything to the world: not from the point of view of values, and not from the point of view of governance.

After 2008 the amount of cash grew fivefold. The money became economic bubbles. In China, it was also fivefold but it was going to different projects. The capital flows there are controlled by the government to improve competition. Based on those economic laws supported by empirical experience we can make a forecast that in the next 40-50 years there will be a new economic system. The core is there. It’s Southeast Asia. First of all, China and India. We can see that they are the largest democracy in the world and the largest Communist Party in the world.

But from the point of view of governance, they’re quite similar—they use their special cultural features, they combine market and strategic planning in order to improve this well-being of their people, they’re not going to have war, but they’re going to have competition. In this case, it’s becoming bipolar so far.

It’s clear what’s going to happen with the West. It’s going to be greater chaos and falling down. This catastrophe is happening. In accordance with our forecast, this year is the turning point. Pax Americana doesn’t exist as a driver—a locomotive—of economic growth or as an example of a world order. What kind of world order can they suggest? They cannot suggest a new order. They can only suggest chaos. They try to make everything chaotic. But in Southeast Asia, they have an order. “One Belt, One Road” is 2/3 of the countries and that order is getting stronger.We have the customs union. Now we have the Eurasian Economic Union. We celebrated the 15th anniversary of the Great Eurasian partnership. This is the main principle which was coined by our president. These principles of being mutually beneficial, having a voluntary approach, competitive advantages, and transparency. This is the foundation. It’s not a zero-sum game.

When we combine the Eurasian economic order with “One Belt, One Road” there are certain risks. The Americans can provide new chaos and conflicts. They really want Europe to have a nuclear war. They provoke us to use nuclear weapons. In order to have hegemony they want to have a local nuclear war in Europe initially. They believe that European wars are always good for the United States. This war so far helps them because they made Europe very poor and they are making money on this confrontation in Ukraine. To get rid of a catastrophic scenario: 5% probability here. 90% probability that there will be a new center in Southeast Asia.

The rest of the world is going to either join this core or become just some far-away country.

We understand what strategic planning is all about and how to use money to finance investment. Also currency control, no drain of capital, public-private partnership, well-being of the people, and so on. We have all that in our report. I will give you this report. Maybe your magazine is going to be interested in it.

In order to make this catastrophic scenario impossible we have to create a very broad anti-war coalition because this war is for brains, money, and territory. When it’s war to get money we lost a lot of assets, we lost a lot of provisions.

Then he gets into some basics of The Unit, the new currency under discussion - it will apparently have a sort of anti-imperial code built into it directly? Fascinating stuff:

Americans are extremely strong because of the hegemony of US dollars. It’s not like yuan is going to substitute it. No. It will be a different currency financial system. We are going to launch a new currency which is going to be based on an international treaty. The currency cannot be used in the interest of one country or a group of transnational corporations. It must be a digital instrument based on a contract and every country must have the opportunity to issue this currency for international payments. Inside the countries, they’re going to use national currencies.

We suggest this type of currency. I believe that Russia, during its BRICS presidency, will provide a good impetus to its development and will establish a new currency financial system with a transparent mechanism. There will be no opportunity for American sanctions to work through banks.

Secondly, the foundation for an anti-war coalition is an agreement on information security. Russia is working hard to prepare a world convention on digital security. BRICS could take it. America is the number one cyber-terrorist in the world. But at least for us we could have real information safety, an embargo against the countries that conduct cyber terrorism.

So the US and it's terrorist puppets would be sanctioned? That's some top-class irony right there.

I believe our president’s Great Eurasian partnership initiative is quite important.

So this year looking like the beginning of the new financial system, the release of The Unit. Will be interesting to see how that plays out - basically, it will be a huge move, carving out a territory where the ruling oligarchs and PTB hold even less sway. Honestly, I think Caesar would be proud.

 

[heinrich]

Just a little anecdote from events in New Caledonia. Police have reported that during the rioting of the last month, young women, teenagers, have been among the most virulent and violent protesters. Maybe not such a surprise when you consider the place of women in the patriarchal Kanak society; oppressed workhorses without a voice subject to terrible levels of domestic and sexual violence.

Further to my earlier post on the attempted coup d'état in NC, the dissolution of the French Parliament has sent a shockwave through society here. Firstly, the contentious electoral reform has effectively been scrapped, and is likely to become a subject for a political negotiation (another Accord) on NC's institutional future, if the various political parties can bear to many any concessions. Secondly, the country is in no position to organise national elections at such short notice with a curfew and a ban on public gatherings still in place, and with tensions still high due to the freedom of movement in some communes being severely restricted. Thirdly, France's 'gently gently' response is being exploited by the largest radical pro-independence party, who declared that it is targeting 24th September 2024 as the date for the declaration of New Caledonia's independence, to be achieved by whatever means necessary. I'll spare you the details of what was a quite stomach-churning public speech by the party's president, worthy of the worst excesses of any of the 20th century's psychopathic leaders (thank you for publishing Political Ponerology! A very enlightening resource). Of course, the dissolution of the government also means that it's going to take a helluva lot longer to send NC the financial aid we desperately need, not just to rebuild, but to cover social security and unemployment benefits for all those who have suffered in the last month.

More and more mainstream commentators are seeing an international aspect to these events, with a focus on Azerbaijan's Baku Initiative Group, which is attacking France through its old colonies. A supra-national aspect has also been evoked, with the dissolution of Parliament a strategy out of Jacques Attali's globalist playbook (Macron's mentor, and former counsellor to Mitterand, and with many fingers in many high-level pies) to sow chaos until 2027, at least. Check out his A Brief History of the Future (2006).

Brings to mind the Laura's recent warning about possible civil strife in France, a mirror to the looming unrest the US (in the current interviews with Jay Campbell, perhaps).

thank you for your considerate description of the situation in nc. i believe the situation has become unmanagable and i see no solution to reconcile the parties. as regards the young women, they act this way because they have not yet beeen broken by education. i wish you good luck in nc.

 

[sToRmR1dR]

The US is making good customers from its allies through endless wars.