Is a stock market crash imminent?
- Thread starter Ennio
- Start date
Cryptocurrency exchanges shut down amid heavy trading, rollercoaster Bitcoin
Published time: 13 Jun, 2017 03:13
https://www.rt.com/usa/392019-bitcoin-3k-coinbase-outages/
Snip:
Published time: 13 Jun, 2017 03:13
https://www.rt.com/usa/392019-bitcoin-3k-coinbase-outages/
Snip:
The company cited high customer traffic and trading volume for being “down for maintenance.” Coinbase claimed that the issue was resolved by 7:44pm EST.
As the site experienced such high traffic, the entire market for Bitcoin was in a state of wild fluctuation. On Sunday, Bitcoin climbed to a record high of $3,041.36, according to CNBC.
Then, on Monday, Bitcoin experienced its largest crash since January 2015, falling more than 16 percent to $2,532.87. Those looking to sell their Bitcoin on Monday as the price plummeted by more than $500 were unable to do so through Coinbase.
Coinbase also experienced an outage due to increased traffic on May 25, less than three weeks ago.
Many customers voiced their concern with the exchanges, which they say are not capable of handling the traffic that accompanies large fluctuations in the price of Bitcoin.
@CoinbaseSupport @coinbase, you literally are scamming people! Only allowing purchases on your site when the price is high! Useless
7:38 PM - 12 Jun 2017
_https://twitter.com/adamludwin/status/874331410064039936/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rt.com%2Fusa%2F392019-bitcoin-3k-coinbase-outages%2F
Bitcoin, Crypto Currencies & The blockchain
Vid with article:
May 30, 2017
Data said:
I think that there are patterns and indicators which fit the model of past collapses that we are seeing occurring right now. And these patterns, unmistakable and critical, are to the minds of many financial analysts justification for the warnings.
Keeping in mind the following...
Now read this:
and this:
Global credit crunch WARNING issued on debt bubble as current trends mirror 2008 crash
Thanks Ennio for the posts - and I think too that the PTB will decide to hit the "economic button" soon. Key point for me was the Fed increasing interest rates, and stating that all is fine, and they will also reduce the balance sheets. A surefire recipe for global economic pain.
I also think that this has been on the cards for a while; hence Russia & China's aggressive gold buying for some time now. I think (and I could be very wrong) this option was held back because of Putin's actions over the last 2 years. They tried everything to thwart Russia, but its not working as "the irresistible force has met the immovable object". With Russia and China forging the multipolar world, the damage from the "economic collapse" plan could be ameliorated, hence that's a possibility it was held back.
Now, I think things have changed - to their chagrin the multipolar world is taking shape quite fast and against all their plans and machinations - plus they have Trump as a scapegoat to blame it on as well. I imagine their immediate plan will be global economic chaos; with ISIS running rampage in the Middle East, North Africa and Eurasia trying to reshape a new world in their image. fwiw
I also think that this has been on the cards for a while; hence Russia & China's aggressive gold buying for some time now. I think (and I could be very wrong) this option was held back because of Putin's actions over the last 2 years. They tried everything to thwart Russia, but its not working as "the irresistible force has met the immovable object". With Russia and China forging the multipolar world, the damage from the "economic collapse" plan could be ameliorated, hence that's a possibility it was held back.
Now, I think things have changed - to their chagrin the multipolar world is taking shape quite fast and against all their plans and machinations - plus they have Trump as a scapegoat to blame it on as well. I imagine their immediate plan will be global economic chaos; with ISIS running rampage in the Middle East, North Africa and Eurasia trying to reshape a new world in their image. fwiw
angelburst29
The Living Force
Ennio said:
I came across an article that describes the US Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), an American secret (CIA) Treasury Department slush fund that basically manipulates the American dollar.
Update: America’s Secret Multi-Trillion Dollar Black Ops Slush Fund
https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/2017/06/10/update-americas-secret-multi-trillion-dollar-black-ops-slush-fund/
Kirby thinks assassinating Trump is more likely than World War III.
Rob Kirby has made another video in a series. The first part of the series is below the video. It concerns an American secret Treasury Department slush fund where the CIA stashes its profits from the heroin market. The title of this video says as Mr. Kirby implies is that the New World Order crowd is about to fail miserably. It is well worth the effort to watch this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAmNc6u4fwc (50:03 min.)
A month ago two billionaires began a public dialogue that can enlighten us all about the Dark Corners of the American government. It began earlier this month when Hugo Salinas Price noticed that the reserves of Central Banks around the world had declined by a trillion dollars. Central Banks had dumped a trillion dollars in US government bonds in the 17 months ending January 8, 2016. Normally that kind of fire sale of assets would have taken down the US and global economies.
Another billionaire had an answer. Rob Kirby said the US Exchange Stabilization Fund bought that trillion dollars in bonds. The Exchange Stabilization Fund was created in 1934. It is above the law and any Congressional oversight. The CIA has been subject to Congressional investigation but never the ESF. It was initially funded when FDR asked Americans to turn in their gold coins that were valued at $20.67 per ounce. The dollar was devalued to $35 which gave the ESF a paper profit of $2.8 billion. The Treasury Secretary appointed a manger for the ESF. The first man to run the ESF was Harry Dexter White who worked closely with Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr. Soviet documents proved that White was a Soviet spy. White served on 18 government boards including the one that ran OSS Black Ops financing. He sent $50 million to China in 1940 to fund the war against Japan.
White also helped create the IMF and the World Bank. He won the battle with John Maynard Keynes to make the US Dollar the world’s reserve currency at Bretton Woods in 1944. This had severe ramifications for the Dollar and later might have became one of the reasons why President Kennedy was assassinated.
The ESF took over Black Ops financing for the CIA when it replaced the OSS. In 1948 the ESF delivered $10 million in cash which CIA handed out to politicians in Italy to make sure the ‘Good Guys’ won the elections. The ESF funded regime change all over the world. And when it came time to import heroin from the Golden Triangle to the US during the Vietnam war, the ESF was there along side Air America.
In the 1960s the American Dollar was experiencing problems. Wall Street had decided to over populate the country so America had to run deficits to pay for the importing of raw materials that were not needed when the population was only 150 million people. The US was also supporting hundreds of military bases overseas and funding regime change. The ESF developed a work around through the IMF to pay for military coups and counter revolutions. The ESF would front the coup leaders cash which was subsequently written up as an IMF loan. The ESF would ask that these loans be paid back in foreign currencies so the US Treasury through the New York Federal Reserve Bank and its 21 primary dealers could manipulate currencies to make the dollar look good.
Other sources of income for the ESF’s market manipulations of gold and currencies were the illegal drug and weapons trade. It was the ESF through the CIA that set up the infrastructure for the major Drug Cartels. My regular readers know that the Big Banks launder a trillion dollars a year in illegal drugs and weapons sales. They also launder $500 billion a year in political bribes.
In the summer of 1963 President Kennedy had decided to change the way international monetary policy was conducted to cure our continual trade deficits. He wanted to bring in foreign countries and to make the operations of the ESF, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department transparent and open to public inspection. This decision died with JFK’s assassination. President Kennedy was killed on the 53rd anniversary of the first meeting held in 1910 to draft the legislation that became the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Other reasons given for the assassination of JFK were his opposition to Israel’s acquisition of nuclear weapons. And some wanted the US to go into the Vietnam war and lose it so we could hook the younger generation on drugs and make trillions of dollars from the addicts and the systematic destruction of our cities.
The decision to keep ESF’s operations a Dark Secret had disastrous consequences for the Dollar. Robert Roosa was Undersecretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs under Kennedy and then Johnson. As head of the ESF, he decided to issue US Treasury bonds which were payable in Swiss Francs. They were called Roosa bonds. They were a disaster as the Swiss franc went up in value. The ESF also bet against the German mark which proved to be another losing proposition. They also participated in the London Gold Pool which tried to keep the price of gold down by dumping US gold onto the markets. This also was a disaster as gold kept going up while the Dollar kept going down.
Please note that Roosa was a former NY FED VP and later became a trustee of the Rockefeller Foundation and a member of David Rockefeller’s Trilateral Commission. Roosa’s boss was Douglas Dillon who was a boyhood friend of the Rockefeller brothers. His father was Jewish and had changed the family name to Dillon. Dillon went on to serve as President of the Rockefeller Foundation.
There were some Dark Days for the Dollar in the late 1960s through the 90s. The ESF did make a lot of money from the Drug trade. In 2001 the Bush administration had decided to invade Afghanistan even before Israel did 911 to blame it on the Muslims so we could spend $6 trillion on wars for Israel. That decision to invade Afghanistan was made because the Taliban had eradicated most of the opium crop which threatened the Narco Dollar.
The Narco Dollar allows the US to print money by the trillions and to send them overseas to finance drug shipments and pay ten billion dollars in bribes every week. Keeping that money overseas lowers inflation in the US. The invasion of Afghanistan was good for the US Banks.
The Bankers started printing Super Notes which were authentic looking counterfeit $100 bills. They were updated dozens of times to keep them looking good. The US propaganda machine blamed Russia and then Iran. The Super Notes were not made good enough to be accepted by the Federal Reserve or any major Central Bank. That was so holders of Narco Dollars would be too frightened to try to redeem them at a Central Bank thus keeping all that money overseas. Bringing Narco Dollars home would destroy the American economy overnight through inflation.
There are other sources of money for the ESF. $8.35 trillion went missing from the Pentagon since Clinton was President. We should expect some of that money to have made its way into that ESF slush fund to cover bad Wall Street investments and a weakening Dollar. Other federal agencies have seen money walk out the door but not to the level of the DOD.
There are $225 trillion plus dollars in speculative bets made against a rise in US interest rates. The ESF and the Federal Reserve are likely behind this wild speculation. The premiums from the sale of more than $225 trillion in CDS was split up amongst the ESF and the major banks. These premiums gave the banks and the ESF tremendous assets which they could use to buy that trillion dollars in US Treasury bonds.
A couple of years ago the Federal Reserve told the major banks to write living wills. This meant that banks were to separate their assets into several different corporations. Depositors’ money and all of those risky Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and those fraudulent Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) were put in the same section of the sinking ship as the FDIC taxpayer guarantees. The Central Banks including the Federal Reserve have decided that when the next crash comes depositors will be treated like investors. Deposits will be taken to cover losses. Of course the losses are far greater than the deposits in a fractional reserve system. That means the Central Banks will have to Hyperinflate currencies to protect the Uber Rich. A Bank Holiday will rob everyone of what little money they have. After 90 days of unbelievable price increases, money from that savings account will be nearly worthless.
Bankers changed US law. It is now the law that the banks obligation to pay for a CDS loss is greater than your demand as a depositor. This means speculators are to be paid before you get your deposit back.
Dr. Jim Willie has noticed some rather strange events in the Treasury bond market at the level of the New York Fed and the 21 primary dealers.
I think the ESF is involved as well. It seems that $3.5 trillion in US Treasury bonds were sold that were not issued by the Treasury. He compared the US budget deficit to the sales of Treasury bonds and found a discrepancy. Maybe that was the ESF acting through the NY FED to fund Black Ops and market manipulations.
The ESF is the most likely candidate as the source of the funds to purchase a trillion dollars in dumped Treasury bonds. But how much longer can this continue? Nobody knows how many more trillions the ESF still has. The Dollar is the only strong currency but that is all due to manipulation and fraud.
When the Dollar Dies, we will see an overnight devaluation and the beginning of Hyperinflation. There will be Nationwide Food Riots.
The alternative is that we let the Bankers starve a few billion people to death and issue a cashless digital currency that would give them the Divine Right of Kings to rule over us. Let me close with something I have not said for awhile.
The Fundamental Fact of Your Existence as a modern man or woman is that the bankers of New York and London want to reduce you to Debt Slavery.
This sums up what I have been thinking regarding if/when such a crash would occur. I still have a very amateurish view but seeing it through the lens of our knowledge about the wider world helps.
The bears seem to be out in force at the moment warning that it is overbought. And they are right, and lots of fundamental indicators lean that way, and now with the fed winding down their perpetual propping up of the US markets. However if we see the market for what I think it is - basically a tool to trick and deceive and take people's money - then why would we have a crash when so many are expecting a crash?
This guy nails one possible scenario anyway:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/stock-market-crash-scenario
Some of the comments are good too.
The bears seem to be out in force at the moment warning that it is overbought. And they are right, and lots of fundamental indicators lean that way, and now with the fed winding down their perpetual propping up of the US markets. However if we see the market for what I think it is - basically a tool to trick and deceive and take people's money - then why would we have a crash when so many are expecting a crash?
This guy nails one possible scenario anyway:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-26/stock-market-crash-scenario
The one thing we can know with certainty is it won't be easy to profit from the crash.
After 8+ years of phenomenal gains, it's pretty obvious the global stock market rally is overdue for a credit-cycle downturn, and many research services of Wall Street heavyweights are sounding the alarm about the auto industry's slump, the slowing of new credit and other fundamental indicators that a recession is becoming more likely.
Few have taken the risk of projecting a date for the crash, this gent being a gutsy outlier: Hedge Fund CIO Sets The Day When The Next Crash Begins.
Next February is a good guess, as recessions and market downturns tend to lag the credit market by about 9 months.
My own scenario is based not on cycles or technicals or fundamentals, but on the psychology of the topping process, which tends to follow this basic script:
When there are too many bearish reports of gloomy data, and too many calls to go long volatility or go to cash, the market perversely goes up, not down.
Why? This negativity creates a classic Wall of Worry that markets can continue climbing. (Central banks buying $300 billion of assets a month helps power this gradual ascent most admirably.) The Bears betting on a decline based on deteriorating fundamentals are crushed by the steady advance.
As Bears give up, the window for a Spot of Bother decline creaks open, however grudgingly, as central banks make noises about ending their extraordinary monetary policies by raising interest rates a bit (so they can lower them when the next recession grabs the global economy by the throat).
As bearish short interest and bets on higher volatility fade, insiders go short.
A sudden air pocket takes the market down, triggered by some bit of "news." (Nothing like a well-engineered bout of panic selling to set up a profitable Buy the Dip opportunity.)
And since traders have been well-trained to Buy the Dips, the Spot of Bother is quickly retraced.
Nonetheless, doubts remain and fundamental data is still weak; this overhang of negativity rebuilds the wall of Worry.
Some Bears will reckon the weakened market will double-top, i.e. be unable to break out to new highs given the poor fundamentals, and as a result we can anticipate a nominal new high after the Wall of Worry has been rebuilt, just to destroy all those who reckoned a double-top would mark The Top.
Mr. Market (and the central banks) won't make it that easy to reap a fortune by going short.
As the market lofts to new nominal highs, the remaining Bears will be hesitant to go short, and Bulls will note that despite the dire warnings of analysts and the gloomy data on auto sales, credit expansion, productivity, wages, etc., the market keeps chugging higher.
This will infuse participants with complacency and a general sense that the market has weathered the worst than could be thrown at it.
When the surviving Bears have become wary, and the market's resilience in the tide of negative news seems to point to further gains--at that point, the market finally rolls over and "surprises" everyone.
Nice, but when will this happen? Nobody knows, but the key is there can't be a crowd of analysts predicting a decline and begging everyone to go to cash. There can't be huge short interest and massive bets on higher volatility. Everyone betting the farm on a decline and a spike in volatility must first be destroyed before the market can possibly fall.
The crash has to catch almost everyone off guard--those who lost their shirts betting on the market responding rationally to deteriorating data (i.e. those who bet on rising volatility and a market decline), those steeped in complacency and those secure in their quasi-religious faith that the central banks "have our backs and will never let the market drop."
When these conditions are met, the Crash-o-Meter pegs the upper limit of vulnerability.
Pavlovian training is deeply embedded, so the first drop will trigger a Buy the Dip frenzy. This reverses the downturn and creates the last exit point. But so well-trained are traders, few take the last exit; most feel assured that further gains are just ahead.
Central banks are presumed to be all-powerful, and the past 8 years support the conventional belief that a new central bank policy announcement will always reverse any downturn.
But contrary to expectations, selling momentum builds and the trading bots start selling in earnest, the goal being to liquidate the position entirely to escape risk. Central bank pronouncements steady the market and trigger wild spikes higher--but only for a few hours. Things have changed. Central banks cannot reverse the tide of fear, and spikes higher are seen as selling opportunities.
Alas, every bot has the same goal, and the bid disappears. That's one crash scenario; there are many others. The one thing we can know with certainty is it won't be easy to profit from the crash.
Some of the comments are good too.
For years I've been wondering about the following. There are tons of evidence that the financial markets are totally rigged. Ok, that's the way it is. If it is so, the next crash will be one more bubble busted by the ones who created it and the sheeps (us) will be sheared one more time.
Very few had foreseen the two last crashes (high tech 2000, subprime 2008) and their analysis were not covered by the media at the time (it's only after the crash that they got some coverage).
Meanwhile you have websites like Zero Hedge that publish, almost daily, articles that announce an imminent crash. Those articles are very sound and they point out at some fundamentals (debt level, PE ratios, bond VS stocks, exposure...) that scream 'imminent major crash'. Those tons of articles drown the signal (true predictions) into noise (daily false predictions).
There would be an imminent crash if the fundamentals were driving the market. I think those analysts underestimate to what extent the financier can create the financial reality.
One new factor is as follow: until recently 'financiers' had tried overall (despite some obvious bubbles) to maintain the illusion of 'fundamentals', so there was a relative correlation between economic data and financial valuations. This time is gone, and this lead to very puzzling situation with total de-correlations between the 'fundamentals' and the market levels. That's probably why there are so many articles announcing an imminent crash.
This blatant de-correlation suggests that the elites don't bother to pretend anymore. A lot of people know that the markets are rigged, the elites know that people know but they don't care. At this point the market is so artificial that I'm not even sure that they need people to believe in the financial system.
So, from this perspective, the answer to the question 'when will the next crash occur?' is probably 'when they decide to do so, it can be tomorrow, it can be in a while'
This being said, I'm wondering if they can indefinitely create the financial reality. If even people's belief doesn't even matter, maybe our only 'hope' is a major unexpected catastrophe that would re-correlate market levels and economic fundamentals (i.e. systemic crash)
This lady really connects a lot of dots. She talks about economic 'warning signs', the Fed's having nothing else they can do, hyperinflation, and other indicators which suggest to her how very tenuous the whole situation is.
From: Analyst: Market crash coming... "the insiders are getting out in droves"
From: Analyst: Market crash coming... "the insiders are getting out in droves"
June may have been the top in the stock market, though a crash usually takes some time after the top. The stock market weakness will show itself, first in staying under the 50 day moving average, and then confirming by staying under the 200 day moving average. Nasdaq with the technology leaders are just under the 50 day moving average, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials are still above the 50 day moving average. They are all above the 200 day moving average. What do we mean by imminent? If imminent is this week or month or even next month, then I don't think a crash is imminent. If June wasn't the top, we may be headed towards yet another October top.
